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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, TurkWendellsNecklace said:

Death by Humidor

AJ Pollock with his 11 HRs doesn't see what the problem is.

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I'm benching him vs righties at home. If he goes off, he goes off. I can deal with not getting the stats for the breakout if he goes back to normal ROS. This is getting ridiculous.

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On 5/14/2018 at 10:51 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

After reading up, I think this elbow thing is the source.  Probably a little mental aspect and humidor, but it all seems to go back to the elbow.  

 

Can you or anyone please provide sources on his elbow?  Thank you!

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Was just proposed Jose Abreu for Goldy in a 1 for 1 deal. 6 weeks ago i would have laughed. The elbow appeared in September and he hasn't been himself since. Might very well pull the trigger on this, especially because it seems his days of being a 20-25 steal threat is behind him no matter what, but that's obviously the least of our worries now. 

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There's just no end in sight.  At what point does everyone accept their is a problem?   We're in mid-May.  Its 40 games in.  This isnt "oh its early" or "oh its April" stuff anymore.  He's either playing hurt, is in an early decline or there are other issues going on.  This is more then a slump.

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14 minutes ago, nykid1981 said:

There's just no end in sight.  At what point does everyone accept their is a problem?   We're in mid-May.  Its 40 games in.  This isnt "oh its early" or "oh its April" stuff anymore.  He's either playing hurt, is in an early decline or there are other issues going on.  This is more then a slump.

This is beyond ridiculous. His AB’s aren’t even competitive. His bat is slow and he isn’t making solid contact. 117 PA’s and over a month since his last HR. Tired of watching it. 

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Thank you for this info, guys.  I really had no idea.  Unlike nykid, I absolutely believe that slumps can last into mid-May and even longer, but something else seems up here.

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the Brewers didn't appear to have any issues with the humidor as they slugged 4 HRs today

 

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On 5/6/2018 at 9:43 PM, Cmilne23 said:

DO NOT sell low.  This is a very bad stretch for a guy in a bad mechanical funk.  He’s A solid week away from an .850+ ops.  Arizona had some bad matchups, and they got more on horizon.  From May 13th on he has a very nice stretch with some awful pitching teams.  Buy low where you can, it’s frustrating dealing with a horrible slump like this from a first rounder but this guy is a professional.  He’s got a great track record, his walk rate is still very good.  He’ll start feasting again soon.  Go get yourself a share.

 

hummm

 

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35 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

hummm

 

It’s only been a few games.  Pollock being out destroys this lineup though.  This lineup is simply mediocre without Pollock and Lamb.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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Its not even that he is just not getting hits.  Anyone can look at the box score and see 0-4.  Watch his ABs.  His bat is painfully slow.  His AB's arent even competitive.  He has lost bat speed overnight.  Is it mechanical?  injury related?   If its mechanical, I would think we at least we would be seeing some signs here and there of improvement. 

 

In reality, if you take away the one week he had in SF and LA back in mid-April.....he's been brutal all year.  And as others have mentioned, this goes back into last season.  Playoffs and September.

Edited by nykid1981
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1 hour ago, Motown_Magic said:

Was just proposed Jose Abreu for Goldy in a 1 for 1 deal. 6 weeks ago i would have laughed. The elbow appeared in September and he hasn't been himself since. Might very well pull the trigger on this, especially because it seems his days of being a 20-25 steal threat is behind him no matter what, but that's obviously the least of our worries now. 

 

Take the money and run.

 

With Pollock down for the count (possibly until the ASB) that certainly doesn’t help with Goldy’s chances of a turnaround.

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Never owned him, don’t watch him a lot. Did he seem to get old over night

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He missed a week back in September to get an mri on his elbow.  He comes back and hits .171 in September/October and equally as bad in the playoffs.  

 

He comes back in spring training after rest and does well against ST competition, but when the games get real he’s not the same.  Takes a day off on the 28th and is in the worst slump of his career.  Stats indicate his bat speed may have slowed.  

 

Everyone blaming the humidor but it’s probably something else...

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8 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

He missed a week back in September to get an mri on his elbow.  He comes back and hits .171 in September/October and equally as bad in the playoffs.  

 

He comes back in spring training after rest and does well against ST competition, but when the games get real he’s not the same.  Takes a day off on the 28th and is in the worst slump of his career.  Stats indicate his bat speed may have slowed.  

 

Everyone blaming the humidor but it’s probably something else...

agree it must be a combination of things.  that being said, he has a 66 wRC+ at home and a 145 wRC+ on the road.  something at home is bothering him as well.  maybe just pressure of being in front of the home fans.  starts a road trip next week including going to miluakee.  maybe that can snap him out of this?

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3 hours ago, Motown_Magic said:

Was just proposed Jose Abreu for Goldy in a 1 for 1 deal. 6 weeks ago i would have laughed. The elbow appeared in September and he hasn't been himself since. Might very well pull the trigger on this, especially because it seems his days of being a 20-25 steal threat is behind him no matter what, but that's obviously the least of our worries now. 

 

If you're gonna sell (and you may have your reasons) I would expect a better return than Abreu. Not to take away anything from Abreu, he is a good hitter. 

Edited by IceGoat
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12 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

If you're gonna sell (and you may have your reasons) I would expect a better return than Abreu. Not to take away anything from Abreu, he is a good hitter. 

 

Honestly, with how bad Goldy's looked I don't know if you'd get much better than Abreu. I mean, there's only about two rounds separating them, and Goldy has looked to be WAY off his game.

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20 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

Honestly, with how bad Goldy's looked I don't know if you'd get much better than Abreu. I mean, there's only about two rounds separating them, and Goldy has looked to be WAY off his game.

 

There was more than two rounds in my league. Well, I lied, my league does Auction. Nevertheless, Abreu went for $19 while Goldschmidt went for $37 and everyone was incredulous at what a steal Goldy was (so he was valued at even more). 

 

I still maintain you can get more, but I would be of the mind to ride it out. I think he will turn it around.

 

Will he return 1st round value? Probably not.  The humidor, according to park factors, has turned Chase Field into the 3rd most pitcher friendly venue. There's a lot of noise in home/road splits. Pollock isn't as good as he has appeared at home, nor is Goldy as bad. The full season stats are a relatively small sample size, then when you break it into halves, it only becomes less telling. I'd also be wary, as many of you are, about a precipitous decline in steals as he is now 30 and not in the mold of a prototypical speedster. I good comp to Goldy is Bagwell who went from like 31 steals to 9 steals in his age-31 season. He was a year older than Goldy is now, but it indicates a steep drop off could occur without warning. 

 

But, as I said, I'd be keeping him. If I convinced myself he is battling an injury or done, I would still be seeking a better return. But if you shop him, at least do it right after a good game. He nearly homered the other night. 

Edited by IceGoat
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Is there a website that measures "bat speed"?

 

it's been mentioned that his bat looks slow and would love to know his current bat speed compared to previous years

 

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8 minutes ago, jb_power said:

Is there a website that measures "bat speed"?

 

it's been mentioned that his bat looks slow and would love to know his current bat speed compared to previous years

 

 

Hard to measure that kind of stuff outside Exit Velo. Also, when your timing is off, your bat looks slowly because your mind is slow. That's what I see.

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1 hour ago, IceGoat said:

 

There was more than two rounds in my league. Well, I lied, my league does Auction. Nevertheless, Abreu went for $19 while Goldschmidt went for $37 and everyone was incredulous at what a steal Goldy was (so he was valued at even more). 

 

I still maintain you can get more, but I would be of the mind to ride it out. I think he will turn it around.

 

Will he return 1st round value? Probably not.  The humidor, according to park factors, has turned Chase Field into the 3rd most pitcher friendly venue. There's a lot of noise in home/road splits. Pollock isn't as good as he has appeared at home, nor is Goldy as bad. The full season stats are a relatively small sample size, then when you break it into halves, it only becomes less telling. I'd also be wary, as many of you are, about a precipitous decline in steals as he is now 30 and not in the mold of a prototypical speedster. I good comp to Goldy is Bagwell who went from like 31 steals to 9 steals in his age-31 season. He was a year older than Goldy is now, but it indicates a steep drop off could occur without warning. 

 

But, as I said, I'd be keeping him. If I convinced myself he is battling an injury or done, I would still be seeking a better return. But if you shop him, at least do it right after a good game. He nearly homered the other night. 

 

I think you're underselling Abreu. Actually, I'd say a lot of people do; he's so consistently great he's almost boring. Abreu's first season in the MLB was 2014. I'll compare the two real quick, using Abreu's 2014-17 and Goldy's 2013 and 2015-17 (missed a fair bit of time in 14).

 

Abreu never hit less than 24 home runs and reached 30 every other year and maxed out at 36. Goldy never hit less than 25, reached 30 every other year, and maxed out at 36 (twice). Abreu has gotten between 100 and 107 RBI and 67 and 95 runs. Goldy's been a bit more prolific in both, driving in 95 to 125 runs and scoring 103 to 117. Abreu has averaged between .290 and .317. Goldy between .297 and .321. For OBP leagues, Goldy is a more prolific walker, the edge decidedly goes to Goldy there.

 

Yes, over the years Goldy has the edge over Abreu. But Abreu is a great player. Now if you think he turns it around, hold him. But if I owned him I'd probably be willing to move him for Abreu, at the very least I think this proves to be an off year. And fwiw, I own Abreu in a redraft and probably wouldn't move him for Goldy at this point. I've gone into my reasoning in other posts, but I think Goldy is going to just be bad, or at the very least decidedly not Goldy, this year.

 

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1 hour ago, IceGoat said:

 

If you're gonna sell (and you may have your reasons) I would expect a better return than Abreu. Not to take away anything from Abreu, he is a good hitter. 

I appreciate some feedback on that. the proposal is still on the table. Besides steals and about 15 runs per year, if you compare the two, their stats are actually not as far off as you may believe though. With pollock out for an extended period, RBI opportunities and solid pitches are only going to decrease (not that they have any reason to pitch around him these days lol). You look at the guys drafted right ahead of abreu, I can’t see any sane owner shipping a JoRam, votto, rizzo, Springer, Donaldson, even a bellinger for him right now. It’s sad how heavily I need to consider Abreu right now. goldy’s 0-4 tonight doesn’t sway me back anymore either.. I realize this is th Goldy thread but just throwing that out there. Pollock going down on top of Lamb already makes that lineup pretty damn average. 

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20 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I think you're underselling Abreu. Actually, I'd say a lot of people do; he's so consistently great he's almost boring. Abreu's first season in the MLB was 2014. I'll compare the two real quick, using Abreu's 2014-17 and Goldy's 2013 and 2015-17 (missed a fair bit of time in 14).

 

Abreu never hit less than 24 home runs and reached 30 every other year and maxed out at 36. Goldy never hit less than 25, reached 30 every other year, and maxed out at 36 (twice). Abreu has gotten between 100 and 107 RBI and 67 and 95 runs. Goldy's been a bit more prolific in both, driving in 95 to 125 runs and scoring 103 to 117. Abreu has averaged between .290 and .317. Goldy between .297 and .321. For OBP leagues, Goldy is a more prolific walker, the edge decidedly goes to Goldy there.

 

Yes, over the years Goldy has the edge over Abreu. But Abreu is a great player. Now if you think he turns it around, hold him. But if I owned him I'd probably be willing to move him for Abreu, at the very least I think this proves to be an off year. And fwiw, I own Abreu in a redraft and probably wouldn't move him for Goldy at this point. I've gone into my reasoning in other posts, but I think Goldy is going to just be bad, or at the very least decidedly not Goldy, this year.

 

 

True -- I will admit, there is more of a gap between the two in OBP leagues which I play in. This has colored my impressions of both. 

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