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jfazz23

Brett Gardner 2018 Outlook

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feel like people are sleeping on gardner.  hes gonna start left field and leadoff for a yankees lineup that could break HR records.  hes gonna have judge, stanton, sanchez, bird hitting behind him.

 

hes not gonna hit 300, but he can slash something like 265/350/420.  if he does that i think hes scoring 100 runs.  he has a 20 homerun swing in yankee stadium and can still steal 15-20.  never broke 70 rbi....but if torres and hicks produce at the bottom of the lineup i can see it happening.

 

265avg 100 runs  20 homers 70 rbi 20sb

 

i think thats very valuable in 4 or 5 of leagues as your OF 4/5

 

thoughts?

Edited by jfazz23
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I think your projections are spot on.  The only big difference I see this year between Gardner and a group of players like Pollock, Pham and/or Cain is that you can get Gardner 139, 127 and 95 picks later than those guys, respectively.  

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2 hours ago, kirkcameron said:

I think your projections are spot on.  The only big difference I see this year between Gardner and a group of players like Pollock, Pham and/or Cain is that you can get Gardner 139, 127 and 95 picks later than those guys, respectively.  

he probably wont run as much with those guys behind him...but then again he stole 23 last year with judge and sanchez and didi having big years behind him

 

so i dont think 20 sb is ridiculous 

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Can confirm he’s going cheap. Got him after pick 160 in a recent draft. A small reach over his adp probably, but still value imo. 

 

He’s just old and unsexy. Whatevs. 

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His age is definitely an issue.  There haven't been many 35 year old productive outfielders.

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10 hours ago, B&F said:

His age is definitely an issue.  There haven't been many 35 year old productive outfielders.

How many unproductive 35 year old starting outfielders have there been? How many were playing in a great offense and in a great stadium?

I'm not sure what kind of sample size we're dealing with.

 

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11 hours ago, B&F said:

His age is definitely an issue.  There haven't been many 35 year old productive outfielders.

 

Ichiro, Beltran, Cruz, Damon, Marlon Byrd, Carlos Lee, Abreu, Werth, Granderson, Berkman, Ibanez all had very productive years at age 35.

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Why is he ranked so low?  He's been solid for years now.

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23 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

 

Ichiro, Beltran, Cruz, Damon, Marlon Byrd, Carlos Lee, Abreu, Werth, Granderson, Berkman, Ibanez all had very productive years at age 35.

 

1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

How many unproductive 35 year old starting outfielders have there been? How many were playing in a great offense and in a great stadium?

I'm not sure what kind of sample size we're dealing with.

 

 

11 hours ago, B&F said:

His age is definitely an issue.  There haven't been many 35 year old productive outfielders.

hes also 34 not 35 until end of august.

 

and i agree, there have been alot of 34/35 year old very productive outfielders

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12 hours ago, countseth said:

Can confirm he’s going cheap. Got him after pick 160 in a recent draft. A small reach over his adp probably, but still value imo. 

 

He’s just old and unsexy. Whatevs. 

Speak for yourself 

giphy.gif

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On 2/15/2018 at 1:07 PM, jfazz23 said:

 

 

hes also 34 not 35 until end of august.

 

and i agree, there have been alot of 34/35 year old very productive outfielders

 

In rnds 15+ that is all I target are old, dead (so some think) outfielders and ones like Gardner who may have 100+ runs and a 15/15 season easy, SIGN ME UP

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Is Gardner going to be leading off everyday? Or is he splitting playing time with Hicks? I like both Gardner and Hicks but if they're sitting 25% their value will be limited

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Anyone fading with all the talk they're going to cut way back on Gardner's running?

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5 hours ago, RolandoRoomes said:

Anyone fading with all the talk they're going to cut way back on Gardner's running?

All what talk?

 

Source please...

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3 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

Over/under 100 runs?

 

Be careful...

 

OK - Yes.

 

^_^

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I wouldn't want Gardner as my starting OF.  Very unikely to hit that many HR again.  Will run even less.  In deep leagues like 16 teams then its a definite, but 12 teams or less I would probably look elsewhere.


Gardner is very streaky which is one reason I wouldn't want him as my starting OF.

 

2017: 
.646 OPS in April

1.073 OPS in May

.685 OPS in June

.849 OPS in July

.657 OPS in August

.743 OPS in September

 

2 months are outstanding, the other 4 months are bad to terrible.  He did hve a good amount of SB in the down months but not sure if thats to be expected again.

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Only thing I'd caution is expecting that 20 HR season again.  Last year was his first year over 20 and he's only had 3 seasons in double digits.

 

If he goes 20/20 again, sure, absolute steal.  If it's 8/20, even with 90 RS...meh.

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Only thing I'd caution is expecting that 20 HR season again.  Last year was his first year over 20 and he's only had 3 seasons in double digits.

 

If he goes 20/20 again, sure, absolute steal.  If it's 8/20, even with 90 RS...meh.

Yet everyone seems to love Inciarte 50 picks earlier.

Edited by kirkcameron
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3 hours ago, kirkcameron said:

Yet everyone seems to love Inciarte 50 picks earlier.

 

Yes I noticed that - I blame a lot of it on the default rankings. Y! has him way high and so that's where he goes.

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8 hours ago, kirkcameron said:

Yet everyone seems to love Inciarte 50 picks earlier.

 

Except Inciarte will probably hit around .300 and is 7 years younger.

 

I mean, I don't really care for either, but I can see why Inciarte is being drafted sooner.

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On 3/10/2018 at 7:29 PM, Koufax Machine said:

All what talk?

 

Source please...

 

 

Think he's referring to Michael Kay on a couple occasions stating no way they're going to let Gardner run as much with the big bats coming up after him who can knock him in so easy. Also heard similar talk on radio

 

stealing is to big a risk now. He will steal but OP has valid point now.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, rotodr said:

 

 

Think he's referring to Michael Kay on a couple occasions stating no way they're going to let Gardner run as much with the big bats coming up after him who can knock him in so easy. Also heard similar talk on radio

 

stealing is to big a risk now. He will steal but OP has valid point now.

 

 

Wrong. In fact often the opposite is true. Sending the baserunner is a great way to get your big hitters to see fastballs. Surprised that a guy like Kay would say that. 

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4 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Wrong. In fact often the opposite is true. Sending the baserunner is a great way to get your big hitters to see fastballs. Surprised that a guy like Kay would say that. 

kay is a moron so its not surprising.

 

and i agree with you.  he swiped 20 last year with judge and sanchez behind him....dont see why that will change

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On 3/11/2018 at 6:12 PM, SuperJoint said:

 

Yes I noticed that - I blame a lot of it on the default rankings. Y! has him way high and so that's where he goes.

 

Or that Inciarte's a top 50 player. Watch yo self. 

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