jwblue

Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

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Not sure what to expect from him.  Do catchers decline faster than other position players from the wear and tear?

 

 

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23 minutes ago, jwblue said:

Not sure what to expect from him.  Do catchers decline faster than other position players from the wear and tear?

 

 

 

Catchers do wear and tear quicker because of the stress of the position on the body, but Buster Posey really hasn't fallen off that far from what he already was. The power was at a low this past year as 12 HR isn't ideal. When he was a 20 HR guy playing every day, and there was little other competition, he became a Tier of his own. His counting stats were way down last season because the Giants were awful. With a better supporting cast this year, I see those stats rising maybe 15-20 HR as his Hard Hit really hasn't gone down much. He will be the old Buster Posey, but he is just overshadowed now by the performance of catchers that possess greater power while still having a decent average. This isn't as much of Posey falling off, but others providing just as good as options. His .300+ batting average is still elite and shouldn't be underrated, but some value a 25 HR guy with a .270-.280 guy.

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~300/400/450 with 10-15 HR and a few SB mixed in still has him top five in most formats. he's almost 31, but i believe he's got a few more years in him.

not sure how they can limit his catching duties with Belt locked in over at 1B. he can spell Belt here and there, sure, but if they wanted to give him say a 50/50 split at catcher and 1B, what do they do with Belt? maybe try and really take advantage of inter-league play? how many games is that though?

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10 minutes ago, Lone Marlins Fan said:

 

Catchers do wear and tear quicker because of the stress of the position on the body, but Buster Posey really hasn't fallen off that far from what he already was. The power was at a low this past year as 12 HR isn't ideal. When he was a 20 HR guy playing every day, and there was little other competition, he became a Tier of his own. His counting stats were way down last season because the Giants were awful. With a better supporting cast this year, I see those stats rising maybe 15-20 HR as his Hard Hit really hasn't gone down much. He will be the old Buster Posey, but he is just overshadowed now by the performance of catchers that possess greater power while still having a decent average. This isn't as much of Posey falling off, but others providing just as good as options. His .300+ batting average is still elite and shouldn't be underrated, but some value a 25 HR guy with a .270-.280 guy.

anything can happen, but i wouldn't expect much of a rebound regarding his HR stats. his ISO, HR/FB, and subsequently his HR totals have all three declined every year since 2014. whether or not this is a conscious decision by him to change his batted ball profile (his bb% has coincidentally went up every year since 2014), i can't answer. unless something changes in his approach, he's probably not going to flirt with upper teens or twenties for HR totals, especially in ol' AT&T park.

Edited by osb_tensor

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8 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

anything can happen, but i wouldn't expect much of a rebound regarding his HR stats. his ISO, HR/FB, and subsequently his HR totals have all three declined every year since 2014. whether or not this is a conscious decision by him to change his batted ball profile (his bb% has coincidentally went up every year since 2014), i can't answer. unless something changes in his approach, he's probably not going to flirt with upper teens or twenties for HR totals, especially in ol' AT&T park.

 

His HR rates have decreased but his hit quality tools really haven't. His Batted Ball distance actually when up from 2015 when he hit 19 HR this past year despite only hitting 2017. AT&T Park is dreadful, and the 20 end of that may be an aggressive prediction. I saw we compromise at 15 HR.

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He's still a top 3 catcher. If Sanchez and Contreras were busts he'd still be #1. He's steady, he isn't usually drafted crazy high, and you know you're getting a lot of games from him. .300/.400 with 15-18HR, 60-80RBI, 60-80R, 5-10SB seems like a given.

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The batting average and on base percentage he provides with his plate appearances are an underrated commodity. The game has changed I think he’s more valuable than ever at an already scarce position.

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1 hour ago, Marty Funkhouser said:

The batting average and on base percentage he provides with his plate appearances are an underrated commodity. The game has changed I think he’s more valuable than ever at an already scarce position.

Agreed, especially with 1B eligibility and if you pair him up with a HR hitter.

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1 hour ago, cornerback said:

Is he hurt? Every second day he sits.

 

The Giants have played 10 straight days and he's started 7 of them. All 3 he sat out were day games after night games. That's pretty standard operating procedure for a catcher, especially one in his 30s. He's still started 32 of 41 games on the season.

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Got Posey very very cheap recently and just accepted because it's Posey... So the 20 HR 90 RBI Buster is just gone, right?

 

Be happy with 60 Runs, 10 HR, 60 RBI and great average?

Meh...

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As a giants and posey fan, I don't understand why he is sitting so much.  It also sucks because he isn't playing 1st base anymore or even pitch hitting.

 

As an owner who traded for him recently, its frustrating as hell

Edited by BustHerPosey

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42 minutes ago, BustHerPosey said:

As a giants and posey fan, I don't understand why he is sitting so much.  It also sucks because he isn't playing 1st base anymore or even pitch hitting.

 

As an owner who traded for him recently, its frustrating as hell

 

Went to my first game at AT&T (beautiful park) and was let down that he didn’t start and was utterly shocked when the Giants were down 5-3 with guys on 2nd and 3rd with one out and Bochy sent A-Jax up to pinch hit in the 9 spot. I get not wanting to burn your backup catcher but that could have been a game changing moment. He must have really needed the day off.

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He got hit pretty hard in the face/clavicle on one of the last pitches yesterday.  Probably just giving him a day to recover.

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5 hours ago, BustHerPosey said:

As a giants and posey fan, I don't understand why he is sitting so much.  It also sucks because he isn't playing 1st base anymore or even pitch hitting.

 

As an owner who traded for him recently, its frustrating as hell

 

Because hes no spring chicken anymore...

 

Because of all the years of wear and tear...

 

Its all about managing his innings now to keep him playing for a full season.

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He’s starting to become a better real life player than a fantasy player. Still good for a catcher but we would expect more from him

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This figures. News said he was hurt and questionable for the game, he doesn't usually play on Sunday day games anyway. Surprise, not only is he OK, but he's going to start and have his best offensive game of the season so far.

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Glad to see Buster able to play today after sitting over the weekend because of "General Soreness" :rolleyes:

He's the David Eckstein of catching, empty above average average

Edited by Gumbo_Ghost

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