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jimbo504

First draft of the season, tell me how I did!! WHIR

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I like to do at least one draft at the start of spring to try to take advantage of the early rankings, so here is Team #1 in the books. I had the 9th pick.

 

12 team H2H yahoo 5x5

 

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I didn't intend to take so many Cardinals, it just kinda happened that way. I didn't really know what I was doing the last 5 rounds or so.

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Looks like a playoff team.    You may just a little more speed but at the same time, that could come from Acuna when he's called up.

 

You did well.

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I like the team overall, however there is a wide range of outcomes in my opinion. You have a decent amount of risky players or players on common regression lists. This could be a playoff contender or you could miss the playoffs altogether. From my perspective though I like it. 

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15 minutes ago, yusko9 said:

I like the team overall, however there is a wide range of outcomes in my opinion. You have a decent amount of risky players or players on common regression lists. This could be a playoff contender or you could miss the playoffs altogether. From my perspective though I like it. 

 

Agree! Did you take a safe stock in the entire bunch other than Machado? You have a lot of players coming off career years. Others with huge question marks. I like to take flyers on some of these guys, but you took flyers on all of them. This is a boom or bust team. I think it is going to bust. Sorry lad. You're on the outside looking in.

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13 minutes ago, Lone Marlins Fan said:

Agree! Did you take a safe stock in the entire bunch other than Machado? You have a lot of players coming off career years. Others with huge question marks. I like to take flyers on some of these guys, but you took flyers on all of them. This is a boom or bust team. I think it is going to bust. Sorry lad. You're on the outside looking in.

 

I'm not sure that's entirely fair. Realmuto, Ozuna, Machado, and Blackmon are all pretty dang safe. Pham, Shaw, Miggy, Whit, DeJong are suspect in their own ways, but not the point they hurt the team. Shaw regressed down the stretch, Miggy is aging with injuries but a guy I expect to be better, Pham people aren't on board with because of his late breakout, but I'm a believer that he's a pretty safe bet for 20/20 without hurting you in BA, and has a much higher upside. Whit was actually better as the year went on, he doesn't K a lot, but doesn't walk a ton either. I think he can very well provide 15 taters with 30 stolen bases and bat .285+ to go with it. I wouldn't draft DeJong at all, but the potential is there. He's a bit risky, but the other "suspect" guys aren't really all that suspect. 

 

I think the rotation is a train wreck. I don't like Ohtani as a 2, I love Carrasco but he's a low end 1/good 2 guy. Richards I like but with them going to a six man rotation that's gonna hurt. Sonny Gray is not a guy I want unless it's dirt cheap. Colome may end up traded and not be a closer, Holland doesn't have a job (again, maybe he signs on as a setup guy), and LAA has a few late inning arms. I think the pitching could have been much better. 

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Yeah, I didn't really know what I was doing with pitching going in, I didn't do much research before hand. So I agree the pitching is not great. It's always easier to find pitching on the waiver wire though.

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14 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I'm not sure that's entirely fair. Realmuto, Ozuna, Machado, and Blackmon are all pretty dang safe. Pham, Shaw, Miggy, Whit, DeJong are suspect in their own ways, but not the point they hurt the team. Shaw regressed down the stretch, Miggy is aging with injuries but a guy I expect to be better, Pham people aren't on board with because of his late breakout, but I'm a believer that he's a pretty safe bet for 20/20 without hurting you in BA, and has a much higher upside. Whit was actually better as the year went on, he doesn't K a lot, but doesn't walk a ton either. I think he can very well provide 15 taters with 30 stolen bases and bat .285+ to go with it. I wouldn't draft DeJong at all, but the potential is there. He's a bit risky, but the other "suspect" guys aren't really all that suspect. 

 

I think the rotation is a train wreck. I don't like Ohtani as a 2, I love Carrasco but he's a low end 1/good 2 guy. Richards I like but with them going to a six man rotation that's gonna hurt. Sonny Gray is not a guy I want unless it's dirt cheap. Colome may end up traded and not be a closer, Holland doesn't have a job (again, maybe he signs on as a setup guy), and LAA has a few late inning arms. I think the pitching could have been much better. 

 

I will admit I am not very fair with Blackmon. Even if he doesn't put up last year's numbers, he is relatively safe to be a top OF. Realmuto may be a boring safe as he has no lineup around him. .280 avg 15 HR and no counting stats = about every catcher you could have waited on. Unless the 8 steals really pushes him to a Top 5. And Ozuna came out of nowhere last year with a balooned 23% HR/Flyball ratio. He has been a consistent .270 hitter and suddenly with an elevated BABIP while not changing any of his hit ball stats jumps up over 40 points. Drop him down to a .280 hitter with 25-30 HR as a polite ceiling. Pair that with the rest and I am just not seeing it.

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10 minutes ago, jimbo504 said:

Yeah, I didn't really know what I was doing with pitching going in, I didn't do much research before hand. So I agree the pitching is not great. It's always easier to find pitching on the waiver wire though.

 

By the way, there are a lot of players I do like on this team I just wouldn't have taken them all. Love Miggy and Garrett Richards but they both come with worries. I want both my current Marlin and ex-Marlin Ozuna to do well, but they are going way to early in draft in my opinion. Your team does have a boom or bust to it and I am just another opinion that doesn't matter. Hopefully, its a boom.

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2 hours ago, Lone Marlins Fan said:

I will admit I am not very fair with Blackmon. Even if he doesn't put up last year's numbers, he is relatively safe to be a top OF. Realmuto may be a boring safe as he has no lineup around him. .280 avg 15 HR and no counting stats = about every catcher you could have waited on. Unless the 8 steals really pushes him to a Top 5. And Ozuna came out of nowhere last year with a balooned 23% HR/Flyball ratio. He has been a consistent .270 hitter and suddenly with an elevated BABIP while not changing any of his hit ball stats jumps up over 40 points. Drop him down to a .280 hitter with 25-30 HR as a polite ceiling. Pair that with the rest and I am just not seeing it.

 

Well, Realmuto is young still, so he's probably not at his ceiling quite yet. In the past 2 years he's hit 11 and 17 homers, stole 12 and 8 bases, batted .303 and .278. I agree there are catchers who you can wait on the get some similar stats (Welington Castillo is a fav late pick of mine, Ramos is a good one, etc, but most come with a BA liability). But JT is gonna be, at worse, a 15 homer bat with nearly 10 steals and a .280+ batting average. At best, he's probably a 20-24 homer bat with a .290 batting average and a dozen swipes. 


As for Ozuna. I don't think he came out of nowhere. He's been a hot commodity for a couple of years in my keeper leagues. Last year was his age 26 season, and look at this progression from ages 24 to 26 : 

Year G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA  OBP  SLG OPS OPS+
2015 123 459 27 0 10 30 110  .259   .308   .383  .691 92
2016 148 557 23 6 23 43 115  .266    .321   .452  .773 109
2017 162 613 30 2 37 64 144  .312   .376   .548  .924 145

 

He has steadily gotten better. Sure, let's say he comes back a bi from 2017. But his 162 game pace for homers in 2016 was still 25, and that was at age 25. He's a relatively safe bet to club 30 homers and not kill you in batting average. Split the difference on the last 2 years if you want, that's still a .290 hitter. 

 

The homers were up across the league, so some of the variance can be attributed there, but his med/hard % hits were about the same, his LD% was about the same, GB% up a tick, FB% down a tick. As a maturing hitter, no reason to think that he can't put up 75% of what he did last year, which is pretty much 30 HR. 


It's curious that as a Marlins guy, you are kinda down on the the Marlins guys, ha. I get where you're coming from, but I think his lineup is good, probably one of the better in the league. But the pitching, barf. Sorry, OP, lol

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On 2/16/2018 at 1:10 PM, sngehl01 said:

 

Well, Realmuto is young still, so he's probably not at his ceiling quite yet. In the past 2 years he's hit 11 and 17 homers, stole 12 and 8 bases, batted .303 and .278. I agree there are catchers who you can wait on the get some similar stats (Welington Castillo is a fav late pick of mine, Ramos is a good one, etc, but most come with a BA liability). But JT is gonna be, at worse, a 15 homer bat with nearly 10 steals and a .280+ batting average. At best, he's probably a 20-24 homer bat with a .290 batting average and a dozen swipes. 


As for Ozuna. I don't think he came out of nowhere. He's been a hot commodity for a couple of years in my keeper leagues. Last year was his age 26 season, and look at this progression from ages 24 to 26 : 

Year G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA  OBP  SLG OPS OPS+
2015 123 459 27 0 10 30 110  .259   .308   .383  .691 92
2016 148 557 23 6 23 43 115  .266    .321   .452  .773 109
2017 162 613 30 2 37 64 144  .312   .376   .548  .924 145

 

He has steadily gotten better. Sure, let's say he comes back a bi from 2017. But his 162 game pace for homers in 2016 was still 25, and that was at age 25. He's a relatively safe bet to club 30 homers and not kill you in batting average. Split the difference on the last 2 years if you want, that's still a .290 hitter. 

 

The homers were up across the league, so some of the variance can be attributed there, but his med/hard % hits were about the same, his LD% was about the same, GB% up a tick, FB% down a tick. As a maturing hitter, no reason to think that he can't put up 75% of what he did last year, which is pretty much 30 HR. 


It's curious that as a Marlins guy, you are kinda down on the the Marlins guys, ha. I get where you're coming from, but I think his lineup is good, probably one of the better in the league. But the pitching, barf. Sorry, OP, lol

 

Look at Ozuna's splits in 2016- made AS team and then production fell off a cliff as he battled injuries over second half of season- 2016 numbers very deceiving, he was much better before playing injured

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2 hours ago, robbybobby005 said:

 

Look at Ozuna's splits in 2016- made AS team and then production fell off a cliff as he battled injuries over second half of season- 2016 numbers very deceiving, he was much better before playing injured

Correct, which suggests 2017 wasn't necessarily a fluke or career season. I really like ozuna

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