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Chris Paddack - SP SD

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BA's Glaser was there. His report was not so glowing --regarding his CU...only fired a few and missed with all of them.

Obv was still able to largely dominate with his CH and FB, but he needs to find a usable 3rd offering and the CU has flashed but is not consistent yet...just hazarding a guess, but that could be why he's still hanging around A ball??

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16 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

BA's Glaser was there. His report was not so glowing --regarding his CU...only fired a few and missed with all of them.

Obv was still able to largely dominate with his CH and FB, but he needs to find a usable 3rd offering and the CU has flashed but is not consistent yet...just hazarding a guess, but that could be why he's still hanging around A ball??

 

Development of the 3rd pitch is key, but also have to remember that he's still re-gaining command post TJS.  I wouldn't have expected these kind of results this early.  I'm not overly surprised the CU is the last to find it's way back.  Takes the most command.  The more repetition the better it will hopefully develop.  

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44 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

BA's Glaser was there. His report was not so glowing --regarding his CU...only fired a few and missed with all of them.

Obv was still able to largely dominate with his CH and FB, but he needs to find a usable 3rd offering and the CU has flashed but is not consistent yet...just hazarding a guess, but that could be why he's still hanging around A ball??

 

If last night (or all his starts this season) are with an "off changeup", I'd love to see what he could do when it was on. I think he's in A Ball because of the impending innings limit and the depth of prospects residing in the Padres system. They'll push him up when the other moving parts in the Padres pitching farm, who are capable of throwing more innings, allow it. He's pretty much dominated every outing, so the insinuation that the changeup isn't ready or that he's still a work in progress in the California League seems like convenient rationalization. He's obviously doing something to fool hitters. I doubt it's an underdeveloped changeup which he has no feel for. Also, the biggest fear I've had is that pitchers with dominant changeups can often be fools gold at the lower levels and tend to not replicate their success at the higher levels. If he's capable of producing last night's results with a less-than-on changeup that he's not throwing often, then I get the feeling that it's not just his changeup that's producing these results. FWIW, I'm also not a fan of his throwing motion, but I regard all pitchers as injury risks.  

Edited by Professor Turgeson

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7 minutes ago, Professor Turgeson said:

 

If last night (or all his starts this season) are with an "off changeup", I'd love to see what he could do when it was on. I think he's in A Ball because of the impending innings limit and the depth of prospects residing in the Padres system. They'll push him up when the other moving parts in the Padres pitching farm, who are capable of throwing more innings, allow it. He's pretty much dominated every outing, so the insinuation that the changeup isn't ready or that he's still a work in progress in the California League seems like convenient rationalization. He's obviously doing something to fool hitters. I doubt it's an underdeveloped changeup which he has no feel for. Also, the biggest fear I've had is that pitchers with dominant changeups can often be fools gold at the lower levels and tend to not replicate their success at the higher levels. If he's capable of producing last night's results with a less-than-on changeup that he's not throwing often, then I get the feeling that it's not just his changeup that's producing these results. FWIW, I'm also not a fan of his throwing motion, but I regard all pitchers as injury risks.  

No, the change (CH) is his bread-and-butter and it has come all the way back...it might be a present 70-?

The curve (CU) has had it's moments but he needs to use it much more and did not last night.

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My bad. I got mixed up on your acronyms. I saw his curve look really good two years ago before injury. I'm confident that it'll develop into a useful third pitch with reps. A third pitch is the least of my concerns. And his command is something that get overshadowed by the sexy changeup. He has great command.  

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On 6/13/2018 at 6:54 AM, Professor Turgeson said:

My bad. I got mixed up on your acronyms. I saw his curve look really good two years ago before injury. I'm confident that it'll develop into a useful third pitch with reps. A third pitch is the least of my concerns. And his command is something that get overshadowed by the sexy changeup. He has great command.  

 

I did the same thing

 

CU is a bad acronym for curve, that is Change-Up in my eyes

 

CH I thought of a Chruve - like fellow Padre Lucchessi throws

 

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2 hours ago, desert86 said:

Is he on an innings limit this year/next year? Are we expecting the call up in 2019?

 

He's capped at ~90 IP this season. 

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On 6/13/2018 at 12:56 AM, Dark One said:

 

A walk? Someone's going to have to sit down with him, review some tape and figure out why the hell this unacceptable result occurred.

 

Walked another batter tonight in his first game in 13 days.  Of yeah, thru 4 innings he has nine strikeouts. 

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11 minutes ago, Lonny Baxter said:

 

Walked another batter tonight in his first game in 13 days.  Of yeah, thru 4 innings he has nine strikeouts. 

 

Done for the night, 4IPs, 1hit, 0ER, 1BB, 9Ks. 43 of 61 pitches for strikes.  Insane.

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From Rotowire:

Paddack was moved up to Double-A San Antonio on Thursday, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports.
Spin:
Paddack cruised through the High-A level, posting a 2.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 10 starts with Lake Elsinore. In just 52.1 innings, he racked up a remarkable 83:4 K:BB after missing the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery he underwent in August of 2016. Look for him to remain with San Antonio for the rest of this season.
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I've been looking forward to seeing how AA goes. His great fastball-change combo obviously tore up A+, but reports on him improving his breaking pitches were underwhelming and he didn't throw them often at all (nor did he really have to). We'll get to see if the work on the breaking stuff will pay off enough to continue that success against more advanced hitting in AA.

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3 hours ago, jorp said:

I've been looking forward to seeing how AA goes. His great fastball-change combo obviously tore up A+, but reports on him improving his breaking pitches were underwhelming and he didn't throw them often at all (nor did he really have to). We'll get to see if the work on the breaking stuff will pay off enough to continue that success against more advanced hitting in AA.

 

hes going from an extreme hitters league to an extreme pitchers league though

 

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48 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

 

hes going from an extreme hitters league to an extreme pitchers league though

 

 

Sure. I guess I expect the move to more advanced hitting to be a bigger deal than the park/league, especially given Paddack's current make up of essentially a two pitch FA-CH mix. I've seen a lot of guys do really well in A+ and not be able to make the big leap to AA, so I pay attention to that one more closely. Plus, any numbers he puts up I'll be considering in context to the park/league anyway.

 

That's not to say I don't think he will succeed. I like Paddack. I own Paddack. I hope (and expect) for him to do well. If his FA-CH mix proves successful at AA I'll be even more hyped. If reports are that he starts adding a good breaking ball to that, I'll be psyched.

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44 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

hes going from an extreme hitters league to an extreme pitchers league though

 

That's not true. The Cal League is averaging 4.68 runs per game this season and the Texas League is averaging 4.78.

 

The Cal League ceased to be an extreme hitters league after 2016 when High Desert and Bakersfield folded. And Paddack was at Lake Elsinore which favors pitchers.

 

The Texas League has a more neutral reputation, although Paddack will be going to a pitcher's park in San Antonio. Overall I don't think this move will change much for him in terms of park effects.

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55 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

 

That's not true. The Cal League is averaging 4.68 runs per game this season and the Texas League is averaging 4.78.

 

The Cal League ceased to be an extreme hitters league after 2016 when High Desert and Bakersfield folded. And Paddack was at Lake Elsinore which favors pitchers.

 

The Texas League has a more neutral reputation, although Paddack will be going to a pitcher's park in San Antonio. Overall I don't think this move will change much for him in terms of park effects.

 

ok you follow it closely, I just know how lancaster and some other parks play, and San Antonio has always been an extremely pitcher friendly park, more so than Elsinore.  I expect his numbers to be similar going forward, dude just knows how to pitch, its almost Maddux Lite to me, not only does he not walk guys he can locate his fastball and changeup as well as anyone in the game

 

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1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

 

That's not true. The Cal League is averaging 4.68 runs per game this season and the Texas League is averaging 4.78.

 

The Cal League ceased to be an extreme hitters league after 2016 when High Desert and Bakersfield folded. And Paddack was at Lake Elsinore which favors pitchers.

 

The Texas League has a more neutral reputation, although Paddack will be going to a pitcher's park in San Antonio. Overall I don't think this move will change much for him in terms of park effects.

 

@SpartyOn4 thanks for relaying this information.  I've been working on the assumption (wrongly since '16) that the CAL is extremely favorable for hitting.   It would be interesting to follow how the HR leaders in the CAL over the last couple years have fared then after being promoted to AA (or AAA) to really examine this further. 

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First start at AA:

 

6 IP 1 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K

 

Only one mistake on the night - a homer in the second inning.

 

 

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I am majorly concerned with his rapid decline in his k/bb rate in AA

 

also the homer (one of the Padre guys I know is at the game, said it was an opposite field fluke that looked like the guy had his eyes closed and was fooled but made hard contact)

 

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8 hours ago, amcsoldier said:

First start at AA:

 

6 IP 1 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K

 

Only one mistake on the night - a homer in the second inning.

 

 

79 pitches-53 strikes.

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A report from his debut that I saw someone post over on Reddit: http://baseball-farm.com/index.php/2018/07/08/chris-paddack-aa-debut/. Author seems to be a big Paddack fan.

 

Nice to see that he threw his curve a lot more since he was hardly ever throwing it in A+. Still described as a "work in progress." Author thinks it is more than likely average and might have plus potential. I'm thinking there might be some bumps along the way as he uses it more to develop it.

Edited by jorp
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One of his more human starts tonight, 6IP 2ha 1bb 2er 4k's. Only took him  75 pitches (52 for strikes) to get there though.

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