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Chris Paddack - SP SD

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4 hours ago, Under500Forever said:

Any chance he gets a cup of coffee this year? 

Seems unlikely but just curious what you guys think 

 

No real reason for the Padres to push it this year.  It was said earlier in the thread that Paddack was going to caped at about 90 inning this year.  He is at 75 now.  Btw,  hitters are hitting .096 against Paddack in AA.

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15 hours ago, Lonny Baxter said:

 

No real reason for the Padres to push it this year.  It was said earlier in the thread that Paddack was going to caped at about 90 inning this year.  He is at 75 now.  Btw,  hitters are hitting .096 against Paddack in AA.

If he is capped around 90 this year what does that give him next year? 120?

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Last night's performance:

 

5IP, 4hits, 1ER, 0BB, 7Ks  57 of 77 pitches for strikes and ERA now at 1.30 in AA.

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he is too good for the minors. The Padres should have just skipped AA altogether and had him pitch against career minor leaguers, ex-mlb players and great quad-a players in AAA. I don't think he'll get a taste this season. im expecting them to shut him down in a month. Scary stuff because of his extensive injury history. If Paddack stays healthy, we could possibly be looking at an elite #2 SP in the majors but you gotta figure its just scary figuring out the perfect way to handle him. you don't want to be too gentle or else he's always going to break. You want to find that perfect medium. and once they unleash on MLB hitters, you're gonna want to unshackle him and just let him pitch.

 

Paddack always dominated on 2 pitches his plus fastball and triple plus changeup (I believe he has the best changeup in the minors except the Indians Eli Morgans changeup is just about as devastating but Paddack at the moment dominates both lefties and righties with it something Morgan isn't quite there yet with his). But whats taken Paddack into a different stratosphere is his curveball. Ive watched almost every AA start by Paddack this year on milb.tv and caught 2 starts in person @lake Elsinore since I was lucky that I live in Los Angeles. Paddacks curveball at times is downright lethal. but what makes it more lethal is what makes it elite, his fastball and changeup. The development of his curve is what, imo, has solidified his chances at being a starter in the majors along with raising his ceiling to an elite #2 SP. If anyone has not watched Paddack pitch, do so...he is very very fun to watch, works fast and leaves hitters baffled and embarrassed.

 

He is not striking out hitters at such an insane rate at AA but I believe its only because of the adjustments he's making and because he's throwing his curveball more then he did in HiA (and im happy to see that since the development of his curve is detrimental to his overall development). just think of this...Paddack has never had a SwStr% of under 16.7% (absolutely insane) in his minor league career. At the moment in AA he has a 10.7 SwStr%. That will change and go up. While 16.7% just seems too unrealistic for the upper levels although nothing in regards to Paddack shocks me anymore...

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46 minutes ago, JakeSarna said:

But whats taken Paddack into a different stratosphere is his curveball. Ive watched almost every AA start by Paddack this year on milb.tv and caught 2 starts in person @lake Elsinore since I was lucky that I live in Los Angeles. Paddacks curveball at times is downright lethal. but what makes it more lethal is what makes it elite, his fastball and changeup. The development of his curve is what, imo, has solidified his chances at being a starter in the majors along with raising his ceiling to an elite #2 SP. If anyone has not watched Paddack pitch, do so...he is very very fun to watch, works fast and leaves hitters baffled and embarrassed.

 

He is not striking out hitters at such an insane rate at AA but I believe its only because of the adjustments he's making and because he's throwing his curveball more then he did in HiA (and im happy to see that since the development of his curve is detrimental to his overall development). just think of this...Paddack has never had a SwStr% of under 16.7% (absolutely insane) in his minor league career. At the moment in AA he has a 10.7 SwStr%. That will change and go up. While 16.7% just seems too unrealistic for the upper levels although nothing in regards to Paddack shocks me anymore...

 

Interesting. I always check on reports after his games since I haven't been able to watch many and they almost all say his curveball is bad and he isn't throwing it much. It's my biggest concern with him. The fastball/change combo is obviously elite at this point. Good to hear any positive reports on the curveball development, because I think he needs that third pitch to excel at the higher levels.

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Im sorry, but I don't understand the the term "elite #2 SP." "Elite," by definition, means the best. So unless you are referring to him having the most regular colon of all SP, I don't understand the term.

Edited by Halo Fan
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4 hours ago, Halo Fan said:

Im sorry, but I don't understand the the term "elite #2 SP." "Elite," by definition, means the best. So unless you are referring to him having the most regular colon of all SP, I don't understand the term.

I will explain

 

Syndergaard is an elite no 2

 

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9 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

I will explain

 

Syndergaard is an elite no 2

 

Sorry guys.  Been a bit sleep deprived, due to the birth of my 5th child. Kid's great, but had to get up in the middle of the night to start the process, and I'll stop right there with the details. Back to Paddack. 

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On 8/1/2018 at 10:51 AM, jorp said:

 

Interesting. I always check on reports after his games since I haven't been able to watch many and they almost all say his curveball is bad and he isn't throwing it much. It's my biggest concern with him. The fastball/change combo is obviously elite at this point. Good to hear any positive reports on the curveball development, because I think he needs that third pitch to excel at the higher levels.

 

Yeah this has always been my hesitation with jumping on board.  Without a decent third pitch I didn't see him panning out to much more than a mid-rotation starter.  I haven't seen any scouting report that graded his curveball higher than a 45. 

 

Small sample, but the steep decline in K rate is slightly concerning.  Could still figure it out tho.

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1 hour ago, hypeiz4real said:

 

Yeah this has always been my hesitation with jumping on board.  Without a decent third pitch I didn't see him panning out to much more than a mid-rotation starter.  I haven't seen any scouting report that graded his curveball higher than a 45. 

 

Small sample, but the steep decline in K rate is slightly concerning.  Could still figure it out tho.

 

Honestly, if he develops a league average breaking ball that would be a great thing. It'll play up with the FB/CH combo. Fangraphs had the CB at PV/FV of 5/55 (haha). If it truly reaches a 55, then we're talking.

 

I'm not too worried about the K rate drop yet. I wasn't surprised to see a drop when he moved to AA. The current drop is mostly related to his first few outings. He's gone 8K in 5.2 IP and 7K in 5.0 IP in his last two outings, both against Houston's Corpus Christi affiliate which is one of the better offenses in the Texas League. Hopefully he keeps that up (and finds that breaking ball along the way).

Edited by jorp
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This was from yesterday's Klawchat:

 

Quote

tom: Hi Keith. Do you think Chris Paddack becomes a #2 starter? Has he developed a 3rd pitch yet or is this a case of him just dominating the lower minors with 2 pitches? His numbers are unreal! 
Keith Law: He doesn’t have an average breaking ball and I think that limits his ceiling, although he’s really good for a two-pitch guy (it’s a 70 CH) and is probably ready for the majors now.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/08/09/klawchat-8-9-18/

Edited by jorp
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Paddack threw tonight, but the game was cancelled due to rain after throwing three innings. Struck out four in that time and got touched for two runs in the 2nd, including a home run

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Threw again on Wednesday. 5 innings, 8 H , 3 R, 6K, BB

 

Didn't see it, but from gathering the reports online: Got knocked around a bit, including two runs in the first. Some of it was soft contact in there (some singles to 2B and SS) but gave up a few doubles. Was sitting 94-97 and touched 98. Most June and July reports had him sitting 90-93 and touching 95-96. Note that this was after a rain shorted game the week prior, so he might have been a bit more fresh this time around. He went 86 pitches.

 

Didn't see anything on development of the breaking ball or whether the added velocity impacted command at all.

Edited by jorp

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Normally right handed pitchers NEED to have curveball unless the change is unreal good.  King Felix got away with it but he had one of the best changeups EVER.

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Pads have rightly shut him down for the ROS due to IP limit.  What a year for this kid.  Put himself squarely in the conversation as one of the top SP prospects in the game.  Could be in the majors at some point next season.

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Fangraphs updated 2019 Steamer projections today. Pitchers prorated to 200 IP, sorted by WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d. Who's that guy ranked 19th overall?

 

He obviously isn't getting 200 IP in 2019, but it's obvious Steamer is a fan. 3.58 ERA, 9.35 K/9, 2.26 BB/9 for rate projections.

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