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papaphunk

Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

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Didn't see a thread yet, at 32 years old and a long time Phils fan, would love to see the Phightins go after Arrieta on a multi year deal. 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/phillies-engaged-in-dialogue-with-jake-arrieta.html

 

Philadelphia has long been cited as a possible landing spot for Arrieta, but this is the firmest indication yet that they organization is really looking into the move. Of course, multiple recent reports have emphasized that the Phils don’t want to lock into a long-term deal to improve their rotation, and that motivation no doubt remains a major factor.

 

From Arrieta’s perspective, he’s now the top player left on the board (that is, MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list). Other Scott Boras clients are taking deals that feature front-loaded structures and opt-out opportunities, though that general approach may not quite meet with the Phillies’ interest. Perhaps there’s still some room for creativity in structuring a deal for Arrieta.

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The years are going to be the key here.

 

Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the Phils reach a deal with one of Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn in the coming days

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I'm a Phils fan as well, but I'm not quite getting warm and fuzzy feelings about Arrieta.  Velocity isn't everything, but it is something, and this chart doesn't inspire confidence.  I'd be less worried if he were an extreme GB% pitcher or something, but he's not, and he took a step backward there in 2017 with a lower GB% and higher FB%.  Not the kind of profile I want in Citizens Bank Park.

 

The Phils should have been all-in on Darvish if they wanted to add a top-of-the-rotation arm.  Since they weren't, they should focus on getting an SP3/4 type at a much lower cost and then work something at the deadline (if they're somehow contending at that point) or wait until the 2018-2019 offseason for the next FA class.

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As a Phillies fan I don't want anything to do with him.  He probably wants 6 years, they probably want 3, I would not do 4 on him.

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Arrieta needs to go to a team that has a good defense. Going to a hitter's park with a bad defense behind him would be a disaster.

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33 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

Arrieta needs to go to a team that has a good defense. Going to a hitter's park with a bad defense behind him would be a disaster.

Fantasy-wise yes, but he is going to follow the $$$$

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What teams are looking at him currently?  Still the Phils and BrewCrew?  Any others?  Feel like tony does above that he could get destroyed in that little Philly bandbox

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Which round would you be willing to take this guy if he has no team and it's March 25th and your league is drafting?

 

OldfashionedDescriptiveAntarcticgiantpet

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6 hours ago, RotoGenius said:

Which round would you be willing to take this guy if he has no team and it's March 25th and your league is drafting?

 

OldfashionedDescriptiveAntarcticgiantpet

 

Yeah I was about to ask a similar question. Wondering how soon guys are willing to call his name if he's still without a team. Could be a draft day bargain if he went to the right spot. 

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Nats are "touching base."

 

The Twins need another SP badly.  Their offense is solid even if without Sano for a period. I thought they were going after Darvish hard.  Saw what happened there.  Hell Lance Lynn is solid enough.  Santana will probably be out in all of April I'm thinking.  Berrios and Odorizzi are solid.  Gibson and Hughes lol.

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8 hours ago, RotoGenius said:

Which round would you be willing to take this guy if he has no team and it's March 25th and your league is drafting?

 

 

 

I owned him last year and I am probably lower on him than most this year. If he really isn't signed by the 25th and I am drafting that day I don't take him until I already have 4-5 starters I was comfortable with...which is to say someone else is probably drafting him before I do. He didn't seem himself last year and now (in this scenario) he doesn't have a spring training under his belt and an uncertain destination. I'd tread lightly.

Edited by fletch44

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From what I recall, Theo's last courtesy-offer to Arietta before signing Darvish wasn't all that bad.  He's going to end up with 3yrs and a club option at this rate.  

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If he isn't signed by next week, you have to start getting a little concerned that he's going to miss the beginning of the season.  Goes for Lynn, Cobb, and other unsigned SP too.  

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This is getting stupid...It's March the 2nd for crying out loud...Sign somewhere, Jake!

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Declining skills, perhaps. Not far removed from CY campaign. At some point, heyeaglefn's point becomes tough to get past. Does he wait until draft compensation expires and he can sign freely in June? If he isn't signed, it's hard to fire off more than a $5 bid, or pick before about 200-225, since it's very speculative, and you don't know his landing spot. Arrieta the Twin for $5 if you're carrying a dead roster spot for two-plus months, then waiting for him to round into form? That's dicey. I'll probably let someone else carry the dead weight, if his situation isn't resolved before my draft.

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Agreed.  He's going too early for me to even think about him seriously.  In past years I've handcuffed myself by drafting 'value' players in iffy situations, like seemingly minor injuries, and it almost never works out.  You put yourself behind when you're drafting someone that you basically know isn't going to play the first few weeks of the season, especially when you're taking them before perfectly good pitchers like Godley or Sonny Gray, who are projected to put up very similar ratios.  

 

It obviously could pay off for someone taking the risk, but to me the risk far outweighs the reward at his current ADP. 

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Anyone else in the screwed up situation of owning this guy in an NL only keeper with a draft coming up?

 

Ugh.  If he signs with an AL or is unsigned, I lose him completely, but if he signs with an NL club, it's a no-brainer at $15 for me.   Going to be so ticked if I release him pre-draft and he signs with an NL club.  So frustrating. 

 

Come on SD, make it happen!   Petco would be a nice landing spot.

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1 minute ago, The Czar said:

Anyone else in the screwed up situation of owning this guy in an NL only keeper with a draft coming up?

 

Ugh.  If he signs with an AL or is unsigned, I lose him completely, but if he signs with an NL club, it's a no-brainer at $15 for me.   Going to be so ticked if I release him pre-draft and he signs with an NL club.  So frustrating. 

 

Come on SD, make it happen!   Petco would be a nice landing spot.

 

Yes and we had to turn in our keepers 3 days ago.  only 1 positive is that if he signs with an AL team prior to our auction we can cut him and his salary is released.  After the draft I'm SOL.

 

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