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Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

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12 minutes ago, DMurphy77 said:

Wonder if he'll risk juicing again and return to 2015 form?

 

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Edited by TribeFoo
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With Moustakas finally signing for a song, wonder if the market will heat up for Jake.  They were roughly equal in value last year.

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4 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

3 year deal

 

dollars unknown 

 

Guess.  3 years $60M

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3/60 would be a huge win for Klentak/Middleton. Really stunned teams like the Brewers or Nats didn't go for 4+ years. 

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Just now, tonycpsu said:

3/60 would be a huge win for Klentak/Middleton. Really stunned teams like the Brewers or Nats didn't go for 4+ years. 

especially when you hear the Cubs basically offered the Darvish contract to Arrieta

 

to get him for half the commitment is nice.

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1 minute ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

especially when you hear the Cubs basically offered the Darvish contract to Arrieta

 

to get him for half the commitment is nice.

I heard they called him before they signed Yu. Did the offer him the same contract? I doubt the cubs are that dumb. 

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CY and 25 wins

 

lol the Philly buzz will wear off soon once folks see them play

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2 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

75 mil for 3 years.

 

so not quite a steal

good news, only 3 years

bad news, 25 mil aav

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This signing is worse than the hosmer signing.  $30,000,000 in year one.  j.a. can opt out.  Is philly even close to being a real world series contender?  $60,000,000 for Santana!  

 

I know who has my vote for worst off season...

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16 minutes ago, unknownrotoguru said:

This signing is worse than the hosmer signing.  $30,000,000 in year one.  j.a. can opt out.  Is philly even close to being a real world series contender?  $60,000,000 for Santana!  

 

I know who has my vote for worst off season...

 

Lol, great signing if they front loaded the sh*t out of it as you say (30M).

 

You think money matters to a team that just landed a 2.5 billion dollar TV contract? Front loaded both contracts in a year when they aren't in contention. Gives them more money to throw around in next year's FA splash. Good moves by them. Best off-season probably. Not investing the money is a wasted opportunity.

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28 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

Lol, great signing if they front loaded the sh*t out of it as you say (30M).

 

You think money matters to a team that just landed a 2.5 billion dollar TV contract? Front loaded both contracts in a year when they aren't in contention. Gives them more money to throw around in next year's FA splash. Good moves by them. Best off-season probably. Not investing the money is a wasted opportunity.

 

We'll agree to disagree because regardless of how much money a team has, jake arrieta is not worth $30,000,000.  

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The opt-out is actually not that bad, and could work in the Phillies' favor.  From MLB.com's article about the deal:

 

Quote

MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi reports that Arrieta can opt out of the contract after 2019. The Phillies can void that option, though, if they exercise a two-year extension that starts at $20 million per season, according to MLB Network correspondent Jon Heyman, but can reach as much as $30 million per season based on games started and Cy Young Award finishes.

 

In that case, the contract would be worth as much as $135 million.

 

I like that this setup gives both sides some leverage.  If Arrieta's dominant in 2018 and 2019, the Phillies can lock him up until 2022 with the extension.  Depending on how easy it is to reach the incentives, it sounds like the back end of the deal could be pretty reasonable.  If they don't like what they see in the next two years, they don't exercise the extension and either he opts out and becomes someone else's problem or just plays out the string.  I think it's a great setup for where the Phillies are right now -- on the cusp of being contenders, but not wanting to tie themselves to a declining asset.

 

The headline numbers on this deal sound like an overpay, but I think the flexibility this gives them is valuable enough that it doesn't bother me.  And, yeah, the payroll is so low, this doesn't hurt them at all going forward.

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11 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The opt-out is actually not that bad, and could work in the Phillies' favor.  From MLB.com's article about the deal:

 

 

I like that this setup gives both sides some leverage.  If Arrieta's dominant in 2018 and 2019, the Phillies can lock him up until 2022 with the extension.  Depending on how easy it is to reach the incentives, it sounds like the back end of the deal could be pretty reasonable.  If they don't like what they see in the next two years, they don't exercise the extension and either he opts out and becomes someone else's problem or just plays out the string.  I think it's a great setup for where the Phillies are right now -- on the cusp of being contenders, but not wanting to tie themselves to a declining asset.

 

The headline numbers on this deal sound like an overpay, but I think the flexibility this gives them is valuable enough that it doesn't bother me.  And, yeah, the payroll is so low, this doesn't hurt them at all going forward.

 

If there is anything that is most obvious this winter is that teams are tired of being on the hook for dead money.  How about if the angels didn't have poo-holes?  Or the Yanks didn't have Ellsbury?   etc etc etc.  When you talking $20 or $25 million in a single season, that is a lot of money regardless of the name of the team on the front of the jersey.  

 

Arrieta has lost 3 mph off his fastball.  Philly is silly for ignoring this most important fact and it's going to cost them because they could have went elsewhere.  

Edited by unknownrotoguru
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3 minutes ago, unknownrotoguru said:

If there is anything that is most obvious this winter is that teams are tired of being on the hook for dead money.

 

Even if Arrieta craps the bed, he's gone by 2021.  This team's contention window is unlikely to open this year.  If it does, $25 mil/year isn't going to keep them from going to make a big deal or three at the deadline, and it's not going to keep them from being able to win the Harper/Machado/whoever sweepstakes in the offseason.  Comparing $25 mil/year for Arrieta to Pujols or Ellsbury is apples and oranges.  Teams can't field a roster of 25 homegrown pre-arb players.  At some point if you want to contend you have to take the chance on FAs to close gaps.  They don't all work out, but this isn't a deal that's going to kill them.

 

6 minutes ago, unknownrotoguru said:

Arrieta has lost 3 mph off his fastball.  Philly is silly for ignoring this most important fact and it's going to cost them.  

 

Cy Young Jake Arrieta isn't coming back, but he can be effective without the plus-plus velocity.  The velocity loss is why he wasn't a $30+ million guy.  At 2.4 fWAR last year, $25 mil is just a slight overpay.  Sure, he will decline, but everyone forgets about $/WAR inflation.  Maybe by 2020 even if he's only a 2.0 WAR guy the extension makes him a bargain.

 

Don't love the player, but I like the deal for the team situation.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Even if Arrieta craps the bed, he's gone by 2021.  This team's contention window is unlikely to open this year.  If it does, $25 mil/year isn't going to keep them from going to make a big deal or three at the deadline, and it's not going to keep them from being able to win the Harper/Machado/whoever sweepstakes in the offseason.  Comparing $25 mil/year for Arrieta to Pujols or Ellsbury is apples and oranges.  Teams can't field a roster of 25 homegrown pre-arb players.  At some point if you want to contend you have to take the chance on FAs to close gaps.  They don't all work out, but this isn't a deal that's going to kill them.

 

 

Cy Young Jake Arrieta isn't coming back, but he can be effective without the plus-plus velocity.  The velocity loss is why he wasn't a $30+ million guy.  At 2.4 fWAR last year, $25 mil is just a slight overpay.  Sure, he will decline, but everyone forgets about $/WAR inflation.  Maybe by 2020 even if he's only a 2.0 WAR guy the extension makes him a bargain.

 

Don't love the player, but I like the deal for the team situation.

I'd read that the FB was slower by design.  He slowed his slider and changeup as well to make up for this.  His fb velo upticked in September though on both the sinker and 4 seamer.  https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/heres-why-the-brewers-should-put-a-cherry-on-a-great-offseason-and-sign-jake-arrieta/

 

The biggest issue with him is loss in slider break.  He needs to get that pitch back to cement himself as a solid #2 starter in fantasy.

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Quote

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Phillies' contract with Jake Arrieta includes an opt-out clause after the second season.

 

Arrieta will earn $30 million in 2018, $25 million in 2019 and $20 million in 2020. The right-hander has the option to opt-out after the 2019 season, but the contract also allows the Phillies to void that potential opt-out clause in the form of a two-year extension for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In that event, Arrieta would earn $20 million per season for those two years, with incentives that could drive it up to $25 million per season. All told, the final deal could wind up being for five years and between $125 and $135 million.

 

Phillies were way under the luxury tax so could afford this.  I thought they would be a legit contender for a wild card spot by next year already.  This just makes it more feasible.  The team double opt out/opt in pivot thing is interesting.  A front office that gained more control then most on a mega-contract in that the Arrieta can't bolt if he thinks he sees greener pastures.

 

Arrieta is at the start of his declining years most likely but still has more than almost any other pitcher bar the top 10 say at their peak.  And he came back strong after a slow start last year where people were running around here freaking out and declaring him dead or something.  His second half was Arrieta Prime.  Kind of how Verlander yo-yoed around being really down then up then down again then currently up.  Older pitching learning how to pitch to match their aging process.

 

So a 3 year deal isn't too bad given the madness of recent mega-contracts.  And if he can pitch well for longer the Phils can have him for two more years.  All in all given how other contracts have been this one isn't too bad or the team.

 

Less years with an opt blocking an opt out may well be the contract of the future.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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15 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Even if Arrieta craps the bed, he's gone by 2021.  This team's contention window is unlikely to open this year.  If it does, $25 mil/year isn't going to keep them from going to make a big deal or three at the deadline, and it's not going to keep them from being able to win the Harper/Machado/whoever sweepstakes in the offseason.  Comparing $25 mil/year for Arrieta to Pujols or Ellsbury is apples and oranges.  Teams can't field a roster of 25 homegrown pre-arb players.  At some point if you want to contend you have to take the chance on FAs to close gaps.  They don't all work out, but this isn't a deal that's going to kill them.

 

 

Cy Young Jake Arrieta isn't coming back, but he can be effective without the plus-plus velocity.  The velocity loss is why he wasn't a $30+ million guy.  At 2.4 fWAR last year, $25 mil is just a slight overpay.  Sure, he will decline, but everyone forgets about $/WAR inflation.  Maybe by 2020 even if he's only a 2.0 WAR guy the extension makes him a bargain.

 

Don't love the player, but I like the deal for the team situation.

 

229

198

169

 

Innings pitched starting with 2015, through 2017.  Same number of starts

 

Besides losing 60 innings per season, Arrieta also lost 3 mph on his fast ball.

 

Spending $30,000,000 for a season of Jake when philly just isn't going to be a world series contender is, um, silly.  

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