Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

[tonycpsu 3,856]

3 minutes ago, unknownrotoguru said:

Spending $30,000,000 for a season of Jake when philly just isn't going to be a world series contender is, um, silly.  

 

It's a $25 million AAV deal if the team decides not to exercise the option, which they would presumably do if he stinks as much as you think he will.  As for "isn't going to be a world series contender" by then, that's a fine topic to take over to the Phillies outlook thread, but you've offered no factual basis for it here.

[Weekday Warrior 146]

I think he still has something left in the tank, certainly enough for this contract to be a “flippable” asset at the trade deadline when everyone is looking for another starter (not that that is Philly’s plan, but in case their young nucleus experiences more growing pains than anticipated)

[unknownrotoguru 49]

15 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

It's a $25 million AAV deal if the team decides not to exercise the option, which they would presumably do if he stinks as much as you think he will.  As for "isn't going to be a world series contender" by then, that's a fine topic to take over to the Phillies outlook thread, but you've offered no factual basis for it here.

 

I  illustrated statistics of arrieta, ie. his massive loss of innings per game started over the past three seasons as well as loss of 3 mph, the comment certainly deserves to be in the jake arrieta thread.  As for no factual basis of philly being a world series contender in 2018, the team isn't very good, so no point in heading on over to that thread to discuss the obvious.  

 

And it isn't that I think he is going to stink (your words).  I think $30,000,000 in 2018 is a huge overpay for something that happened three years ago.  Even $25,000,000 next season is too much... 

Edited March 12, 2018 by unknownrotoguru

[tonycpsu 3,856]

1 minute ago, unknownrotoguru said:

As for no factual basis of philly being a world series contender in 2018, the team isn't very good, so no point in heading on over to that thread to discuss the obvious.  

 

Who said anything about 2018?  This isn't a one-year deal.  If he's on the team when they're contending, whether it's 2019 or beyond if they decide to exercise their option to extend him, then it was worth it.

[twelve20 32]

will be making his spring training debut on Thursday.

[unknownrotoguru 49]

On 3/12/2018 at 12:47 PM, tonycpsu said:

 

Who said anything about 2018?  This isn't a one-year deal.  If he's on the team when they're contending, whether it's 2019 or beyond if they decide to exercise their option to extend him, then it was worth it.

 

It might not be a one year deal but the phils are still paying arrieta a top 5 or 6 salary of all time...do you really think he is worth that?

[IG-88 165]

9 minutes ago, unknownrotoguru said:

 

It might not be a one year deal but the phils are still paying arrieta a top 5 or 6 salary of all time...do you really think he is worth that?

 

It does seem high to pay a pitcher in decline $25M per year, but at least they're out from underneath the deal after 3 years after his age 34 season. I'd rather pay a premium for 3 years than lock Arrieta up for 5 years and have to stomach through what will probably be a very ugly age 35 and 36 seasons.

[XxxOilOverloadxxX 1,934]

2 hours ago, twelve20 said:

will be making his spring training debut on Thursday.

he pitched in simulated game on Saturday

 

sawed off two bats

 

 

[tm30 89]

LOVE Arrieta for a bounce back year.  He's being completely discounted and yet his numbers last year weren't all that bad.  Still one of the most consistent and durable pitchers in baseball.  

[Big Tuna 136]

Just drafted him as my #4 SP in auction draft......very very happy!  

[Dirty Little Birdie 941]

Anyone care to input where Arrieta is getting drafted in 10-12 team leagues since his signing in Philly?

[DearMrFantasy 29]

Shellacked pretty good today.  Anyone watch?  Insight into the poor result?

[dchamps 196]

6 minutes ago, DearMrFantasy said:

Shellacked pretty good today.  Anyone watch?  Insight into the poor result?

 

He was terrible in the first inning, but after that he looked great - pitches had late life and he was hitting 92, 93 consistently. 

 

In the first, struggled to find his control:

-Couldn't put away Polanco who he had on 2 strikes and eventually was able to put a soft single into right field.

-Served a FB down the middle to Marte for a hard hit line drive single.

-2-0 to Bell and he totally missed catcher's low and away glove for a FB down the middle, which Bell crushed for a 3-run HR. 

 

After that point, he looked good. He gave up one more run in the inning that I thought should be unearned as Cervelli hit a fly ball to Hoskins who lost it in the sun then had to run back on it to have it hit off his glove for a "double" and Cervelli would later score. 

 

In the second and third innings - two hits, no runs, and 2 Ks. 

 

[jdbob11 419]

18 minutes ago, dchamps said:

 

He was terrible in the first inning, but after that he looked great - pitches had late life and he was hitting 92, 93 consistently. 

 

In the first, struggled to find his control:

-Couldn't put away Polanco who he had on 2 strikes and eventually was able to put a soft single into right field.

-Served a FB down the middle to Marte for a hard hit line drive single.

-2-0 to Bell and he totally missed catcher's low and away glove for a FB down the middle, which Bell crushed for a 3-run HR. 

 

After that point, he looked good. He gave up one more run in the inning that I thought should be unearned as Cervelli hit a fly ball to Hoskins who lost it in the sun then had to run back on it to have it hit off his glove for a "double" and Cervelli would later score. 

 

In the second and third innings - two hits, no runs, and 2 Ks. 

 

The Bell HR was on the outer half of the plate.  Decent pitch, Bell just went out and got it and drove it oppo. 

[dchamps 196]

15 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

The Bell HR was on the outer half of the plate.  Decent pitch, Bell just went out and got it and drove it oppo. 

 

Fair, but he missed his spot regardless and Bell crushed it

[heyeaglefn 188]

He had a 5+ ERA in 5 out of the last 7 spring trainings, I wouldn't worry about it.

[KilloWertz 2,459]

Despite having a shaky offense at best, the Pirates have historically been able to get Arrieta even when he was having his elite seasons.  I wouldn't put too much into the start today if you were targeting him already.

[XxxOilOverloadxxX 1,934]

I'm a phils fan and most of the reasoning behind today was that he was throwing tons of fastballs to get ready

 

first start is against the worst offense in baseball so were about to find out soon...Marlins minus Realmuto

Edited March 28, 2018 by XxxOilOverloadxxX

[tm30 89]

Looked fantastic tonight.  That was vintage Arrieta.  

[mjuevos 9]

anyone watched the game? whats different between this 10k start and 1k start vs the rays

[phatrat 792]

 

[ToO_BaD 2,159]

19 minutes ago, phatrat said:

 

 

Absolutely nasty.

[High&Inside 1,295]

51 minutes ago, mjuevos said:

anyone watched the game? whats different between this 10k start and 1k start vs the rays

Was at the game. Was all about that 2 seamer. In the first inning it was all he threw. He relied heavy on it all game. Also velo was back up, was sitting back in the 93-94 range. Nothing was loud off the bat tonight. Vintage.

[mjuevos 9]

1 hour ago, High&Inside said:

Was at the game. Was all about that 2 seamer. In the first inning it was all he threw. He relied heavy on it all game. Also velo was back up, was sitting back in the 93-94 range. Nothing was loud off the bat tonight. Vintage.

 

nice thanks man

[Red Sox Nation 3,178]

10 hours ago, High&Inside said:

Was at the game. Was all about that 2 seamer. In the first inning it was all he threw. He relied heavy on it all game. Also velo was back up, was sitting back in the 93-94 range. Nothing was loud off the bat tonight. Vintage.

 

6 of the 12 balls put in play had a hit probably of 12% or less. Only 3 balls were hit with an exit velo above 95 mph off him, and only 3 with a hit probably above 40%. So yes, your eyes were correct, basically next to nothing was hit loudly. Absolute domination. 

 

I don't think Jake isn't going to be back to that CY Young velo any time soon, but if he can get back to the 93.5ish mph range, that'll be good enough. He also had an unbelievable slider when he was an ace, but he's using that pitch less and less (he's lost a good 2+ inches of break on the pitch as it gets hit a lot more frequently nowadays). If he's commanding his sinker though, and mixing in his curve at least 20% of the time, I don't see any reason why he can't be a high-end SP3, maybe venturing back into SP2 territory.