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Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

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Just saw this. Monstrous (career high) movement on his sinker last night. Would be nice to see anything even close to this. That’s a wiffleball he threw. 

 

 

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The early season evolution of Jake Arrieta has been very interesting. He's more and more moving towards a sinkerball pitcher. He's using his slider/cutter far less, using his change up a tad more, and definitely throwing more sinkers. I'd like to see more curves as the season goes on, but this new Arrieta is still pretty filthy. His sinker velo yesterday was 93.78 mph. That's his highest since his last start of 2016! He is also getting the most horizontal movement on that pitch of his career. He isn't overpowering anymore, but if he's getting that sinker back to 94mph + heavy movement, I'd expect the swinging strikes and k's to increase a bit. As is, he's been a ground ball monster (63%) and he's giving up next to no hard contact (13%). 

 

We've only got a 4 game sample size so far, but Arrieta seems to be regaining enough form that should have him hovering around top 20. Sinkers aren't generally considered a great pitch, but out of the 245 he's thrown this year opponents are only slugging .254 off the pitch. I think he's more of an SP3 if the k's don't come back, and an SP2 if they do. Either way, I'm pretty excited with the early season returns.

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3 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

The early season evolution of Jake Arrieta has been very interesting. He's more and more moving towards a sinkerball pitcher. He's using his slider/cutter far less, using his change up a tad more, and definitely throwing more sinkers. I'd like to see more curves as the season goes on, but this new Arrieta is still pretty filthy. His sinker velo yesterday was 93.78 mph. That's his highest since his last start of 2016! He is also getting the most horizontal movement on that pitch of his career. He isn't overpowering anymore, but if he's getting that sinker back to 94mph + heavy movement, I'd expect the swinging strikes and k's to increase a bit. As is, he's been a ground ball monster (63%) and he's giving up next to no hard contact (13%). 

 

We've only got a 4 game sample size so far, but Arrieta seems to be regaining enough form that should have him hovering around top 20. Sinkers aren't generally considered a great pitch, but out of the 245 he's thrown this year opponents are only slugging .254 off the pitch. I think he's more of an SP3 if the k's don't come back, and an SP2 if they do. Either way, I'm pretty excited with the early season returns.

was at the game last night. His breaking pitches had a little too much break on them, and were easy to lay off. Think thats what lead to the low ks. But like you spoke of the evolution of Jake, he used his sinker as an equalizer. Not to get ks but to induce weak contact. 

 

Not to mention he did what he did last night while also dealing with horrible defense behind him with the 3 errors. Another thing to love about him this year is it looks like when he is on, that Kapler is just going to let him go. Was just south of 100 pitches after at the end of the 6th innning, and the bullpen didn't get moving until 1 out in the 7th. 

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29 minutes ago, High&Inside said:

was at the game last night. His breaking pitches had a little too much break on them, and were easy to lay off. Think thats what lead to the low ks. But like you spoke of the evolution of Jake, he used his sinker as an equalizer. Not to get ks but to induce weak contact. 

 

Not to mention he did what he did last night while also dealing with horrible defense behind him with the 3 errors. Another thing to love about him this year is it looks like when he is on, that Kapler is just going to let him go. Was just south of 100 pitches after at the end of the 6th innning, and the bullpen didn't get moving until 1 out in the 7th. 

 

Yeah I definitely went into the game day thread after he finished the 6th calling it figuring he was done for the day.  Pleasantly surprised to see that he got the 7th.  Do you think he could have made it through 8 if not for the errors?  Seems like it forced him into a lot of pitches in the 6th, though I was merely checking game updates wasn't looking very close.

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1 hour ago, Red Sox Nation said:

The early season evolution of Jake Arrieta has been very interesting. He's more and more moving towards a sinkerball pitcher. He's using his slider/cutter far less, using his change up a tad more, and definitely throwing more sinkers. I'd like to see more curves as the season goes on, but this new Arrieta is still pretty filthy. His sinker velo yesterday was 93.78 mph. That's his highest since his last start of 2016! He is also getting the most horizontal movement on that pitch of his career. He isn't overpowering anymore, but if he's getting that sinker back to 94mph + heavy movement, I'd expect the swinging strikes and k's to increase a bit. As is, he's been a ground ball monster (63%) and he's giving up next to no hard contact (13%). 

 

We've only got a 4 game sample size so far, but Arrieta seems to be regaining enough form that should have him hovering around top 20. Sinkers aren't generally considered a great pitch, but out of the 245 he's thrown this year opponents are only slugging .254 off the pitch. I think he's more of an SP3 if the k's don't come back, and an SP2 if they do. Either way, I'm pretty excited with the early season returns.

Very interesting! Thank you!

 

He's keeping the hits and the runs down, which is good.  However, he seems to be walking people at his normal rate with a reduction in Ks.  Interesting dynamic there that I'd imagine must be due to his increased sinkers.

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That moment when you tout a guy and he gets lit up by the Marlins ?

 

Not worried though. Guys will have off nights. On to the next one. 

 

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3 minutes ago, rag9876 said:

Thoughts on his start today? Washington a tough matchup?

Yes, even without Rendon and Murphy. Arrieta's K% is 17.1%, which is really bad. The Nationals have had a rather mediocre offense thus far, but I wouldn't trust Arrieta against them.

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I view him as a bench today. Nationals are 6th in wRC+ vs righties, and that's without two and a half weeks of Rendon. Scherzer on the mound will make getting a win tough as well. If his sinker is on though, he can beat anyone. Just not feeling the matchup though. 

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still not that many K's. but watching the game, he looks steady and consistent. not a true ace anymore, but expecting him to be a solid SP2 fantasy-wise. would finish as a top-80~100 player

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Still only had 2 strikeouts. Pretty good results, but he just doesn't have the stuff that he used to. He has struck out 6 batters in his last 16.2 innings. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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He's limiting hits and HRs better than last season, which is good.  However, the Ks just are not coming consistently.  I agree that he'll be around top 80-120 on the year.

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On 5/7/2018 at 2:43 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Still only had 2 strikeouts. Pretty good results, but he just doesn't have the stuff that he used to. He has struck out 6 batters in his last 16.2 innings. 

 

I'd have to say sell high on Arrieta while you can.  You can probably get a pretty good (top 100 or at least top 125) return on him because of name brand and his current 2.59 ERA.  The numbers under the hood (4.22 xFIP) simply don't support that sparkling 2.59 ERA.  And if Arrieta's ERA ends up around 4, he's waiver wire caliber given that weak K rate.

Edited by FootballFan101

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7 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I'd have to say sell high on Arrieta while you can.  You can probably get a pretty good (top 100 or at least top 125) return on him because of name brand and his current 2.59 ERA.  The numbers under the hood (4.22 xFIP) simply don't support that sparkling 2.59 ERA.  And if Arrieta's ERA ends up around 4, he's waiver wire caliber given that weak K rate.

 

Well I hope you sold high on him before tonight's disaster.  That low K rate is unbelievably concerning.

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I can't emphasize this enough: sell high on Arrieta as soon as possible.

 

Yes, it would have been much better if you could have sold high on him prior to the disaster vs. the Cardinals like you I had suggested.  However even after that disaster, I'm guessing in most leagues you could still probably get a top 150 return on him because of name brand and his deceiving 2.82 ERA.  His 4.27 xFIP speaks for itself about how lucky Arrieta has been, and he has the 5th WORST K rate in all of baseball.  (Heck, 45 year old Big Fat Bartolo Colon has a better K rate than Arrieta.)

 

You really have to try to sell Arrieta in the next few days at all costs.  He's facing the Braves NL best offense next time out and he's probably going to get shelled in that one.  So his ERA probably won't be marketable any more after that outing.  

 

 

 

Edited by FootballFan101

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Last call to sell high on Arrieta while you still can.

 

He looks totally finished and simply does not have the stuff to miss bats anymore.  The fact that 45 year Bartolo Colon has a better K rate than Arrieta speaks for itself about how Arrieta's stuff has declined.  The 2.82 ERA is a total mirage as indicated by his 4.27 xFIP.

 

He's likely getting shelled by the Braves NL-best offense tomorrow and any window to sell him for a top 150 player will likely be completely gone after tomorrow.

 

Good luck.  Hope you are able to find a sucker to take him.

Edited by FootballFan101

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15 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

Last call to sell high on Arrieta while you still can.

 

He looks totally finished and simply does not have the stuff to miss bats anymore.  The fact that 45 year Bartolo Colon has a better K rate than Arrieta speaks for itself about how Arrieta's stuff has declined.  The 2.82 ERA is a total mirage as indicated by his 4.27 xFIP.

 

He's likely getting shelled by the Braves NL-best offense tomorrow and any window to sell him for a top 150 player will likely be completely gone after tomorrow.

 

Good luck.  Hope you are able to find a sucker to take him.

 

 

I'm fine calling Arrieta a sell-high, and today's a tough match up, but understand that he always beats his ERA predictors:

 

2015 - xFIP 2.61, ERA 1.77

2016 - xFIP 3.68, ERA 3.10

2017 - xFIP 4.11, ERA ERA 3.53

 

It's true he's a worse fantasy pitcher now. He's throwing his sinker more and more, and his k-rate has plummeted. He'll still very likely beat his xFIP again though. Amongst pitchers with 40+ ip, he has the 3rd highest ground ball rate, and he has the best hard-hit rate. So all that contact batters are making are turning into weak grounders. He's a near lock to have a great BABIP once again at that rate. Also, if not for two Neris blown saves, he'd be 5-2. I think he's got a good chance at wins, solid enough ERA, and whip. K's look like they'll be an issue. Probably won't reach the sp2 heights I thought he had a chance at, but no reason he can't be on the sp3/4 border. 

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watching him pitch. still throws 95 with good movement. made albies + acuna look silly. his slider is a pretty good finishing pitch not sure why he only throws it 12%. 

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9 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

 

I'm fine calling Arrieta a sell-high, and today's a tough match up, but understand that he always beats his ERA predictors:

 

2015 - xFIP 2.61, ERA 1.77

2016 - xFIP 3.68, ERA 3.10

2017 - xFIP 4.11, ERA ERA 3.53

 

It's true he's a worse fantasy pitcher now. He's throwing his sinker more and more, and his k-rate has plummeted. He'll still very likely beat his xFIP again though. Amongst pitchers with 40+ ip, he has the 3rd highest ground ball rate, and he has the best hard-hit rate. So all that contact batters are making are turning into weak grounders. He's a near lock to have a great BABIP once again at that rate. Also, if not for two Neris blown saves, he'd be 5-2. I think he's got a good chance at wins, solid enough ERA, and whip. K's look like they'll be an issue. Probably won't reach the sp2 heights I thought he had a chance at, but no reason he can't be on the sp3/4 border. 

 

Well, obviously, I was completely wrong about tonight and Arrieta pitched very well tonight in a difficult matchup, but it's going to take more than one good game for me to change my opinion about selling high being the best thing to do.  I'm not saying trade him for someone like Lucas Giolito, but I'd trade him for a top 150 fantasy asset in a heartbeat.

 

I understand your point about Arrieta's ERA always being better than his xFIP, but this year (coming into tonight) the split was 2.82 ERA, 4.27 xFIP.  It's never been anywhere near that big of a difference before.  I'd expect Arrieta's ERA for the year to end up in the 3.60-3.80 range (decent but certainly not enough to justify where he was drafted especially with such a weak K rate.)  Even if Arrieta does somehow maintains his 2.80 ERA, his Yahoo rank was only 221 going into tonight.  So even with a very fortunate BABIP, Arrieta still has not been living up to his ADP.    

 

Also, as the stats you posted indicate, Arrieta is in the midst of a steady decline the past 3 years in ERA and xFIP.  There's way too many red flags for Arrieta in my opinion.  I still say sell high.

 

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Bump. Another awesome night. He’ll regress, but the returns so far have been fantastic. FWIW his FIP is 2.49 and xFIP 3.70 past 4 starts, so the ERA predictors are trending positively. 

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Not even minding the lower Ks.  Nice to have someone who can give me some ratio help and QS.

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On 5/30/2018 at 9:57 AM, Red Sox Nation said:

Bump. Another awesome night. He’ll regress, but the returns so far have been fantastic. FWIW his FIP is 2.49 and xFIP 3.70 past 4 starts, so the ERA predictors are trending positively. 

 

Not sure I can agree with you there.  Given Arrieta's ADP, the returns certainly have not been fantastic, they've been decent at best.  Unless you got him significantly later than his ADP, he hasn't been returning you a profit, even with his very fortunate BABIP and strand rate.  His Yahoo ADP was 97 and his current Yahoo rank is only 108.  Yes, he's helping you in ERA, but his WHIP is only slightly above average and he's hurting you a lot in K's.  

 

This is excellent window to sell high right now coming off of two good starts.  You can probably get a top 100 player in return for him or at least close to that right now.  With that of a low rate K rate and that many baserunners, the odds of his ERA staying down at 2.16 are simply not very good.

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47 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Not sure I can agree with you there.  Given Arrieta's ADP, the returns certainly have not been fantastic, they've been decent at best.  Unless you got him significantly later than his ADP, he hasn't been returning you a profit, even with his very fortunate BABIP and strand rate.  His Yahoo ADP was 97 and his current Yahoo rank is only 108.  Yes, he's helping you in ERA, but his WHIP is only slightly above average and he's hurting you a lot in K's.  

 

This is excellent window to sell high right now coming off of two good starts.  You can probably get a top 100 player in return for him or at least close to that right now.  With that of a low rate K rate and that many baserunners, the odds of his ERA staying down at 2.16 are simply not very good.

 

I know where you are coming from, but at the same time I think you are being a tad harsh on Arrieta.

I also think that he is not a solid top 10~15 pitcher who can be treated as a SP #1 in any kind of leagues... 

but I still believe he is a solid #2, or a wonderful SP #3. 

 

agree with you about the decrease in K's, also well informed of his decrease in SwStr%.

but this guy is keeping his BB/9 sub 3 and still inducing a lot of ground balls (actually, his GB% rate is at a career high atm)

also not giving up enough hard contact.

 

BABIP is at .267, which is almost identical to his career average, so he is not getting prized by an absurd amount of luck by any means.

his LOB% is 73.2%, too. so his current performance shouldn't be so underestimated IMO.

 

also he collected 12K's in his last 2 games (in which he pitched 13.2 innings), his SwStr% was 8.5% at those 2 starts so that was also encouraging.

 

and to top it all, experienced fantasy owners will know this thing about 'once superstar veterans'. you can see if they are aging well after their prime. and in this case, I think Arrieta is a good example of a 'well-aging veteran', the electric stuff isn't here anymore, of course we all know that,

but he still knows what he can do best, and he is doing it with ease.

 

Nobody in his right mind will expect for him to record a sub-3 ERA with a K/9 of 9 or over.

but I have enough confidence that he will finish with a solid 3.30-3.60'ish ERA and 150-160K, 1.2'ish WHIP at the end of the season. 

also the Phillies look like a solid team, so 13-15 wins is not out of the question. simply put, a top 20-25 SP.

 

no need to 'sell high' for a 'top 100' player by any means, since this guy is a solid top 80-120 himself.

 

well, maybe you will be right eventually and he might get smashed in the next few starts, but I think you are being a bit too pessimistic here.

 

 

 

Edited by jhsong916

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