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Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

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40 minutes ago, jhsong916 said:

 

I know where you are coming from, but at the same time I think you are being a tad harsh on Arrieta.

I also think that he is not a solid top 10~15 pitcher who can be treated as a SP #1 in any kind of leagues... 

but I still believe he is a solid #2, or a wonderful SP #3. 

 

agree with you about the decrease in K's, also well informed of his decrease in SwStr%.

but this guy is keeping his BB/9 sub 3 and still inducing a lot of ground balls (actually, his GB% rate is at a career high atm)

also not giving up enough hard contact.

 

BABIP is at .267, which is almost identical to his career average, so he is not getting prized by an absurd amount of luck by any means.

his LOB% is 73.2%, too. so his current performance shouldn't be so underestimated IMO.

 

also he collected 12K's in his last 2 games (in which he pitched 13.2 innings), his SwStr% was 8.5% at those 2 starts so that was also encouraging.

 

and to top it all, experienced fantasy owners will know this thing about 'once superstar veterans'. you can see if they are aging well after their prime. and in this case, I think Arrieta is a good example of a 'well-aging veteran', the electric stuff isn't here anymore, of course we all know that,

but he still knows what he can do best, and he is doing it with ease.

 

Nobody in his right mind will expect for him to record a sub-3 ERA with a K/9 of 9 or over.

but I have enough confidence that he will finish with a solid 3.30-3.60'ish ERA and 150-160K, 1.2'ish WHIP at the end of the season. 

also the Phillies look like a solid team, so 13-15 wins is not out of the question. simply put, a top 20-25 SP.

 

no need to 'sell high' for a 'top 100' player by any means, since this guy is a solid top 80-120 himself.

 

well, maybe you will be right eventually and he might get smashed in the next few starts, but I think you are being a bit too pessimistic here.

 

 

 

 

If he finishes with an ERA around 3.30-3.60 and a WHIP of around 1.2 like you predicted, to along with that weak K rate, he won't be a top 100 fantasy asset nor a top 20-25 SP.

 

Heck, he's not even a top 100 asset now when he has a 2.16 ERA, which you seem to agree with me is unsustainable.  So why would you say there's no need to try to sell high and get a top 100 player in return for him if you can?

 

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19 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

If he finishes with an ERA around 3.30-3.60 and a WHIP of around 1.2 like you predicted, to along with that weak K rate, he won't be a top 100 fantasy asset nor a top 20-25 SP.

 

Heck, he's not even a top 100 asset now when he has a 2.16 ERA, which you seem to agree with me is unsustainable.  So why would you say there's no need to try to sell high and get a top 100 player in return for him if you can?

 

 

3.30-3.60 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 160K's translates into pitchers like  Zack Godley, Sonny Gray and Arrieta himself in 2017. 

 

If I'm not mistaken both Godley and Gray was ranked between 20-25 SP's at preseason. (some rankings even put them within the range of top 15-20)

 

and my prediction was a bit conservative tbh. I see no 'big red alarms' in his stats except the K rate. 

 

I don't see the point of selling him in such a hurry. and also you said 'sell high' for a top 100 player, which indicates that you see Arrieta as a top 150 at best.

 

can't agree to that.

 

P.S just checked out my 5x5 cat league to see where Arrieta ranks. he sits at #91

 

era will eventually rise but I believe that his K's will also rise to the range of 7.5-8.0 K/9 at the end. which can result in 160-170 K's if he can rack up 180-190 innings, which seems possible if he doesn't get injured. 

Edited by jhsong916

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13 minutes ago, jhsong916 said:

 

3.30-3.60 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 160K's translates into pitchers like  Zack Godley, Sonny Gray and Arrieta himself in 2017. 

 

If I'm not mistaken both Godley and Gray was ranked between 20-25 SP's at preseason. (some rankings even put them within the range of top 15-20)

 

and my prediction was a bit conservative tbh. I see no 'big red alarms' in his stats except the K rate. 

 

I don't see the point of selling him in such a hurry. and also you said 'sell high' for a top 100 player, which indicates that you see Arrieta as a top 150 at best.

 

can't agree to that.

 

P.S just checked out my 5x5 cat league to see where Arrieta ranks. he sits at #91

 

era will eventually rise but I believe that his K's will also rise to the range of 7.5-8.0 K/9 at the end. which can result in 160-170 K's if he can rack up 180-190 innings, which seems possible if he doesn't get injured. 

Arrieta currently has only 40 Ks in 58.1 innings and is only on pace for 120 Ks.  I can't see him getting to 160 or 170 Ks; he'd likely have to average over a K per inning the rest of the way to reach that.

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29 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

Arrieta currently has only 40 Ks in 58.1 innings and is only on pace for 120 Ks.  I can't see him getting to 160 or 170 Ks; he'd likely have to average over a K per inning the rest of the way to reach that.

 

one or two gems could make it happen, though :)

 

still, I firmly agree with you that Arrieta is no longer a 'surefire' top 100. I would also seriously consider trading him if I actually get offered a top 100 batter(someone like Gallo or Moose, maybe?).

 

the thing is that Arrieta may not be an exciting pitcher to own anymore, but he still is the type of 'veteran pitcher' that provides solid ratios and works as a glue guy in your rotation which offers you a floor to build on.

 

pitchers lines are becoming more volatile these days because of the power surge, and Arrieta always gave up way less dingers than the average pitcher in any given year, which makes him a 'predictable' pitcher.

 

Just for the record, there were only 4 games(out of 40) where he gave up 5 or more runs since 2017. which means that while he doesn't always give you the best outcome possible, he also doesn't ruin your stats completely. definitely a virtue in H2H leagues, especially.

 

I think this a big plus and makes him a solid, valuable asset to your rotation. 

Edited by jhsong916

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On 6/1/2018 at 2:40 PM, jhsong916 said:

 

one or two gems could make it happen, though :)

 

still, I firmly agree with you that Arrieta is no longer a 'surefire' top 100. I would also seriously consider trading him if I actually get offered a top 100 batter(someone like Gallo or Moose, maybe?).

 

the thing is that Arrieta may not be an exciting pitcher to own anymore, but he still is the type of 'veteran pitcher' that provides solid ratios and works as a glue guy in your rotation which offers you a floor to build on.

 

pitchers lines are becoming more volatile these days because of the power surge, and Arrieta always gave up way less dingers than the average pitcher in any given year, which makes him a 'predictable' pitcher.

 

Just for the record, there were only 4 games(out of 40) where he gave up 5 or more runs since 2017. which means that while he doesn't always give you the best outcome possible, he also doesn't ruin your stats completely. definitely a virtue in H2H leagues, especially.

 

I think this a big plus and makes him a solid, valuable asset to your rotation. 

And the beginning of that inevitable ERA correction happened today, even in a very favorable matchup

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I'm an Arrieta owner that's on the fence of trying to sell high too.  He has groundball rate, home runs allowed and walks all working in his favor.  But the strikeout rate is making me really nervous.

 

What about hard contact rate?  Is that working in Jake's favor too?  Trying to figure out if Arrieta will continue to be able to overcome the lack of swing and miss.

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On 6/3/2018 at 6:06 PM, FootballFan101 said:

And the beginning of that inevitable ERA correction happened today, even in a very favorable matchup

 

He was scoreless through 5. Had a horrible 6th that started off with a bloop single and then an infield single. Given that 7 of his prior 9 games were 6+ ip, 2er or less, he gets a pass for a bad inning.

 

8 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

What about hard contact rate?  Is that working in Jake's favor too?  Trying to figure out if Arrieta will continue to be able to overcome the lack of swing and miss.

 

He has the 4th lowest hard-hit rate in the league, sandwiched between Verlander and Nola. He's also a solid enough 27th in most soft contact given up. Batters aren't squaring up Jake too well. The k-rate is a concern, but he's managing contact very well. 

 

Edited by Red Sox Nation
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On 6/5/2018 at 10:03 AM, Red Sox Nation said:

 

He was scoreless through 5. Had a horrible 6th that started off with a bloop single and then an infield single. Given that 7 of his prior 9 games were 6+ ip, 2er or less, he gets a pass for a bad inning.

 

 

He has the 4th lowest hard-hit rate in the league, sandwiched between Verlander and Nola. He's also a solid enough 27th in most soft contact given up. Batters aren't squaring up Jake too well. The k-rate is a concern, but he's managing contact very well. 

 

 

And the ERA correction continues.  Arrieta just simply doesn't have anywhere near the stuff he used to 2 or 3 years ago.  If Arrieta's ERA ends up around 4 where his xFIP indicates it should be, to go along with that puny K rate, it's going to be a killer for anyone that drafted him inside the top 100.  There's no silver lining here.  Hope you sold high on him while you could.

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9 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

And the ERA correction continues.  Arrieta just simply doesn't have anywhere near the stuff he used to 2 or 3 years ago.  If Arrieta's ERA ends up around 4 where his xFIP indicates it should be, to go along with that puny K rate, it's going to be a killer for anyone that drafted him inside the top 100.  There's no silver lining here.  Hope you sold high on him while you could.

 

This may be correct but today wasn't good evidence imo.

 

He was cruising into the 6th.  Had two strikes on Braun and catchers interference put him on.   Then fatigue hit and hit hard.   Bad walk and he should have been pulled.   Instead after a visit idiot Kapler leaves him in... and he promptly hit a batter.   Then idiot Kapler pulls him and puts in garcia instead of Siranthony... who gives up a grand slam scoring all 3 inherited runners.  

 

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30 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

This may be correct but today wasn't good evidence imo.

 

He was cruising into the 6th.  Had two strikes on Braun and catchers interference put him on.   Then fatigue hit and hit hard.   Bad walk and he should have been pulled.   Instead after a visit idiot Kapler leaves him in... and he promptly hit a batter.   Then idiot Kapler pulls him and puts in garcia instead of Siranthony... who gives up a grand slam scoring all 3 inherited runners.  

 

 

Yeah, Garcia screwed him good today, but Arrieta was struggling all day (he even walked the pitcher) and hardly generating any swings and misses at all.  Arrieta has not looked good all year, but finally the incredible luck that he was having the first 2 months of the year has run out.  Following two disastrous starts in a row, I think the sell high window is pretty much closed.  I doubt you can get even a top 150 fantasy asset in return for him now.   I tried to tell people even before the disaster against St. Louis to sell high on Arrieta.  If you still have him on your team, I'm sorry, I wish I could say something better, but Arrieta looks totally finished and it looks pretty much hopeless at this point.

Edited by FootballFan101

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On 6/5/2018 at 1:53 AM, Magnus88 said:

I'm an Arrieta owner that's on the fence of trying to sell high too.  He has groundball rate, home runs allowed and walks all working in his favor.  But the strikeout rate is making me really nervous.

 

What about hard contact rate?  Is that working in Jake's favor too?  Trying to figure out if Arrieta will continue to be able to overcome the lack of swing and miss.

 

Arrieta's next 3 starts are beyond terrifying: @MIL (good above average offense who just shelled him last week), vs. STL (good above average offense who just shelled him last month), and vs. NYY (#1 ranked offense in the majors).  I honestly don't see how you can risk starting him in any of those 3 matchups.

 

I know it's not ideal to sell a guy coming off of two straight very poor starts, but I think you have to in this case given the matchups coming up. Look, obviously it would have much better to sell high on him a month ago when his ERA was still shiny despite all the warning signs.  Obviously you aren't to get a full dollar in return for Arrieta now, but I think you at least have to try to see if you can get 75 cents on the dollar for him because after these next 3 starts you might not be able to get anything at all for him.  This isn't a Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, or Kris Bryant situation where the best thing to do is have patience and hold them.  Arrieta looks totally finished and looks like an unmitigated disaster for anyone who drafted him at his ADP. 

 

Arrieta simply doesn't anywhere near the stuff he had 2 or 3 years ago (4th lowest swinging strike percentage in all of baseball, behind even 45 year old Big Fat Bartolo Colon for crying out loud!).  Arrieta has not looked good all year, but finally the incredible BABIP luck that he was having the first 2 months of the year has run out.   Arrieta's current ranking (#201) is poor compared to his ADP because of his microscopic strikeout rate, but his 2.97 ERA is still fairly respectable due to the incredible BABIP luck he had in April and May.  Maybe you can still find a sucker in your league who will look at that respectable 2.97 ERA and give you a top 150 in return for him.  Good luck

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How are you going to sell high when he is pitching like garbage now?!? You should have sold 3 starts ago...nobody wants this piece of trash now

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

How are you going to sell high when he is pitching like garbage now?!? You should have sold 3 starts ago...nobody wants this piece of trash now

 

@Dr. Whom, I advised to sell high on Arrieta on May 18th, the day before the disaster against the Cardinals.  Go back a page if you don't believe me.

 

Like I said, it's not ideal to sell him now, but if you wait (especially with the brutal matchups coming up), you might not be able to get anything at all for him.  Like I said, Arrieta has no stuff at all anymore and looks totally finished, so anyone who still owns him, I think should just admit their mistake, take a loss, and try to get something at all for him while you still can (ie, try to make the best out of a bad situation).

Edited by FootballFan101

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1 minute ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

@Dr. Whom, I advised to sell high on Arrieta on May 18th, the day before the disaster against the Cardinals.  Go back a page if you don't believe me.

 

Like I said, it's not ideal to sell him now, but if you wait (especially with the brutal matchups coming up), you might not be able to get anything at all for him.  Like I said, Arrieta looks totally finished, so anyone who still owns him, I think should just admit their mistake, take a loss, and try to get something at all for him while you still can.

I dont think he is done...just pitching like garbage

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

I dont think he is done...just pitching like garbage

 

45 year old Big Fat Bartolo Colon having a better Swinging Strike % than Arrieta in mid-June doesn't raise a red flag for you?

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On 6/11/2018 at 10:39 PM, Dr. Whom said:

I dont think he is done...just pitching like garbage

 

Still think Arrieta is not finished??

 

I have been very strongly advising trading Arrieta for over a month now, going back to when his ERA and WHIP were still deceptively strong.  Arrieta has looked horrible all year, he was just having incredible unsustainable luck with BABIP in April and May

 

I also told you earlier this week that this was your absolute last chance to sell Arrieta for anything you could get and make the best out of a bad situation because after these next three starts (MIL, STL, NYY) you likely wouldn't be able to get anything at all for him.

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10 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Still think Arrieta is not finished??

 

I have been very strongly advising trading Arrieta for over a month now, going back to when his ERA and WHIP were still deceptively strong.  Arrieta has looked horrible all year, he was just having incredible unsustainable luck with BABIP in April and May

 

I also told you earlier this week that this was your absolute last chance to sell Arrieta for anything you could get and make the best out of a bad situation because after these next three starts (MIL, STL, NYY) you likely wouldn't be able to get anything at all for him.

Completely finished...he will be outright released soon at his age. He cannot pitch at MLB level any longer

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From the glass half full dept, he is incredible st hitting batters in the feet. 

 

Ive seen at least four this year I think 

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Still think Arrieta is not finished??

 

I have been very strongly advising trading Arrieta for over a month now, going back to when his ERA and WHIP were still deceptively strong.  Arrieta has looked horrible all year, he was just having incredible unsustainable luck with BABIP in April and May

 

I also told you earlier this week that this was your absolute last chance to sell Arrieta for anything you could get and make the best out of a bad situation because after these next three starts (MIL, STL, NYY) you likely wouldn't be able to get anything at all for him.

 

While I completely agree that this guy is done, to say he was having incredible unsustainable luck with his BABIP is false.  They were right around his career norms.

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26 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

 

While I completely agree that this guy is done, to say he was having incredible unsustainable luck with his BABIP is false.  They were right around his career norms.

 

I made my first post advising to sell high on Arrieta on May 18th before the disaster against the Cardinals.  At that time, despite his shiny 2.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, Arrieta's BABIP was .231 according to Fangraphs well below his career .268 BABIP and even further below the typical MLB average .300 BABIP.

 

Obviously that .231 BABIP was unsustainable (and hence his 2.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP were equally unsustainable) and now the BABIP has evened out over the last month and like you said it's now about even with his career average.  And we are seeing now that the BABIP has normalized, that Arrieta is no longer even ranked inside the top 250 fantasy rankings for this year.

 

Certainly, in any of his fantasy relevant years, Arrieta never let batters put the ball in play so much.  He was well over 9 Ks per 9 IP in 2014 and 2015, was almost 9 Ks per 9 IP in 2016 and 2017, and this year he is barely over 6 Ks per 9 IP.

 

 

Edited by FootballFan101

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Here's the link showing Arrieta's BABIP by date:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=4153&stat=k9&statArr=6,43&legend=2&split=base&time=game&ymin=0&ymax=7.1471&dStatArray=&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=single&gt1=15&ymin1=0.2&ymax1=0.278947383

 

As you can see, it was .231 before May 18th against the Cardinals (which was when I made the sell high advice for the first time)

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For anyone that hasn't listened to my advice for the past month strongly imploring you to sell high on Arrieta, unless you play in an NL-only league or a super deep league, I think the best thing to do at this point is to just admit your big mistake drafting him, cut Arrieta, and move on.  Sorry it played out like this for you and I wish I had something better to say, but Arrieta looks totally finished and simply has no stuff at all anymore.  

 

Obviously the window to get anything at all for Arrieta in a trade completely slammed shut yesterday at Miller Park, as I predicted it would.  Arrieta's next 3 starts are vs. STL, NYY, and WSH.  Unless you are masochistic, you aren't going to even consider starting him in any of those 3 matchups.  And Arrieta at this point in his career is a very, very low-upside fantasy pitcher given that pathetic 6.04 K/9 and even worse 6.8 swinging strike %.  (For comparison, Max Scherzer is 17.9%) 

 

The absolute best I can see Arrieta being this year is a decent SP #5 and even that I'd say seems unlikely (only about a 10% chance).  I think you are far better off freeing up the roster spot and trying to stream waiver wire guys with good matchups rather than keeping Arrieta at this point. 

Edited by FootballFan101

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Holy crap dude, I don't think you're going to get the congratulations you are looking for here on a player in year 3 of his decline. 

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

For anyone that hasn't listened to my advice for the past month strongly imploring you to sell high on Arrieta, unless you play in an NL-only league or a super deep league, I think the best thing to do at this point is to just admit your big mistake drafting him, cut Arrieta, and move on.  Sorry it played out like this for you and I wish I had something better to say, but Arrieta looks totally finished and simply has no stuff at all anymore.  

 

Obviously the window to get anything at all for Arrieta in a trade completely slammed shut yesterday at Miller Park, as I predicted it would.  Arrieta's next 3 starts are vs. STL, NYY, and WSH.  Unless you are masochistic, you aren't going to even consider starting him in any of those 3 matchups.  And Arrieta at this point in his career is a very, very low-upside fantasy pitcher given that pathetic 6.04 K/9 and even worse 6.8 swinging strike %.  (For comparison, Max Scherzer is 17.9%) 

 

The absolute best I can see Arrieta being this year is a decent SP #5 and even that I'd say seems unlikely (only about a 10% chance).  I think you are far better off freeing up the roster spot and trying to stream waiver wire guys with good matchups rather than keeping Arrieta at this point. 

 

I'm not sure why you are so invested in this argument (which has spanned multiple weeks). Did Arrieta steal your lunch money when you were younger or maybe refuse to sign an autograph? Sure Arrieta is no longer the must start pitcher that he used to be but he is still very much playable in most formats. At the end of the year, he will likely have a line of about 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 140-150 strikeouts. That's good for an SP4 or SP5. Yes, he is no longer a 9 K/9 starter but so far this year he has done a very good job at minimizing hard contact. Unfortunately, the Phillies' defense has done an awful job for him in the last 3-4 starts, particularly Kingery at SS who made two terrible plays yesterday, including an error that should have been a double play.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies start to move away from Kingery at SS, especially on days that Arrieta pitches.

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