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Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

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The velocity is nice, but that K% is still terrible. 

 

K% - 16.2%

SwStr% - 6.8%

 

Those numbers are horrible, but I could see them improving a bit. Solid SP3 in 12-team leagues.

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1 hour ago, rookies and cream said:

 

I'm not sure why you are so invested in this argument (which has spanned multiple weeks). Did Arrieta steal your lunch money when you were younger or maybe refuse to sign an autograph? Sure Arrieta is no longer the must start pitcher that he used to be but he is still very much playable in most formats. At the end of the year, he will likely have a line of about 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 140-150 strikeouts. That's good for an SP4 or SP5. Yes, he is no longer a 9 K/9 starter but so far this year he has done a very good job at minimizing hard contact. Unfortunately, the Phillies' defense has done an awful job for him in the last 3-4 starts, particularly Kingery at SS who made two terrible plays yesterday, including an error that should have been a double play.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies start to move away from Kingery at SS, especially on days that Arrieta pitches.

 

I don't think 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 140-150 K's is good for a SP4 or SP5 unless you are in a 16 team league.  That's very close to Mike Leake numbers from last year and Leake was not a top 60 fantasy starter.

 

Unless you are in an NL-only league or a super deep league, I think you can do better cumulatively than 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 140-150 K's  by streaming waiver wire caliber guys against weak offenses.

 

By the way, while I agree roughly with your projected ERA and WHIP, it would require a huge turnaround in K's for Arrieta to reach 140-150 K's.  He currently on pace for less than 120.  He'd almost need to strike out a batter per inning the rest of the season to reach 140-150.

 

 

Edited by FootballFan101

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I envision a DL stint or a demotion soon, he cannot get MLB hitters out at this point

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

I envision a DL stint or a demotion soon, he cannot get MLB hitters out at this point

 

Won't be a demotion with a guy with as much service time as Arrieta, but yeah, a "phony" DL stint to give him a break to try to fix some things does seem pretty likely.

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I bet he beats the Cardinals tomorrow but is unspectacular. Basically going against his doppleganger in Wacha; he's at home. He gets the W but gives up 4 ER. K's 2-3 guys.

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LOL at calling 2018 Arrieta the “doppelgänger” of 2018 Wacha.  Just terrible.

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No way he lasts 5 innings...he will get phantom dl’d after tonight’s shelling

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On ‎16‎-‎6‎-‎2018 at 4:18 PM, rookies and cream said:

 

I'm not sure why you are so invested in this argument (which has spanned multiple weeks). Did Arrieta steal your lunch money when you were younger or maybe refuse to sign an autograph? Sure Arrieta is no longer the must start pitcher that he used to be but he is still very much playable in most formats. At the end of the year, he will likely have a line of about 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 140-150 strikeouts. That's good for an SP4 or SP5. Yes, he is no longer a 9 K/9 starter but so far this year he has done a very good job at minimizing hard contact. Unfortunately, the Phillies' defense has done an awful job for him in the last 3-4 starts, particularly Kingery at SS who made two terrible plays yesterday, including an error that should have been a double play.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies start to move away from Kingery at SS, especially on days that Arrieta pitches.

 

He's not going to sniff 140-150 strikeouts with his current K%. His K% will have to go back to 22/23% in order to reach that number. With his current K% he's on pace to have 110-120 strikouts.

 

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WHIP, strikeouts and a quality start all working in Arrieta's favor.  Anyone watch the start to see how his stuff looked?

 

I'm assuming next week is still too risky to start though (starts against the Yankees and Nats).

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On 6/21/2018 at 1:00 AM, Magnus88 said:

WHIP, strikeouts and a quality start all working in Arrieta's favor.  Anyone watch the start to see how his stuff looked?

 

I'm assuming next week is still too risky to start though (starts against the Yankees and Nats).

 

I'll say this much for Arrieta: He still sucked tonight (5.40 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) but he didn't suck as badly as I thought he would vs. the Yankees tonight.

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50 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I'll say this much for Arrieta: He still sucked tonight (5.40 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) but he didn't suck as badly as I thought he would vs. the Yankees tonight.

Didn't even consider starting him this week against New York.  It's depressing to think Arrieta is a pure streaming option now.

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On 6/26/2018 at 10:10 PM, Magnus88 said:

Didn't even consider starting him this week against New York.  It's depressing to think Arrieta is a pure streaming option now.

 

96 degree day game against an underachieving Nationals offense that just woke up this weekend.  I smell a disaster coming today from Arrieta.

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On 6/26/2018 at 10:10 PM, Magnus88 said:

It's depressing to think Arrieta is a pure streaming option now.

 

For the first time in a month, Arrieta has a matchup where an argument can be made for starting him...in a pitcher's park against a lowly Pirates team that he has historically dominated (11-6, 3.01 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, a K per IP) and that he struck out 10 against earlier this year (one of only two outings the entire season where he's struck out more than 5).  If Arrieta can't pitch a good game this Saturday, then I really don't think he's worth owning at all anymore.

Edited by FootballFan101

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13 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

For the first time in a month, Arrieta has a matchup where an argument can be made for starting him...in a pitcher's park against a lowly Pirates team that he has historically dominated (11-6, 3.01 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, a K per IP) and that he struck out 10 against earlier this year (one of only two outings the entire season where he's struck out more than 5).  If Arrieta can't pitch a good game this Saturday, then I really don't think he's worth owning at all anymore.

Any theories as to why Arrieta's strikeout rate has been so poor this season?  His fastball velocity is actually up from where it was in 2017.  Is the slider not as effective?

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14 minutes ago, Magnus88 said:

Any theories as to why Arrieta's strikeout rate has been so poor this season?  His fastball velocity is actually up from where it was in 2017.  Is the slider not as effective?

 

Michael Beller for Sports Illustrated provided some good theories

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/why-cant-jake-arrieta-strike-anybody-out-anymore/ar-AAxKGOp

 

This article was back in late May when his ERA and WHIP were still shiny, but his peripherals indicated that his ERA was complete mirage, especially given the Phillies poor defense compared to the Cubs elite defense that he used to have behind him.

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Maybe all the rumors swirling around him in 2016 were true.

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7 hours ago, cs3 said:

Maybe all the rumors swirling around him in 2016 were true.

 

Certainly makes you wonder.  Arrieta was an awful MLB pitcher for the Orioles and was very close to being out of baseball.  Then, out of nowhere, he dominated the 2nd half of 2014 and had one of the best seasons of all-time in 2015.  Now, at only 32 years old (one year younger than Max Scherzer) and despite not having any serious injuries, Arrieta is in a sharp decline and has very little swing-and-miss stuff left now (16.4% K rate, 7.2% swinging strike rate).

 

I'm shocked that Arrieta is still owned in 95% of Yahoo leagues given that he can't strike anyone out anymore.  As Magnus88 correctly pointed out, Arrieta is "a pure streaming option now".  And we'll find out if he's even that anymore this Saturday at PNC Bank.  If Arrieta can't even pitch a good game against the Pirates, his ownership should drop to 0%.

 

 

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8 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Certainly makes you wonder.  Arrieta was an awful MLB pitcher for the Orioles and was very close to being out of baseball.  Then, out of nowhere, he dominated the 2nd half of 2014 and had one of the best seasons of all-time in 2015.  Now, at only 32 years old (one year younger than Max Scherzer) and despite not having any serious injuries, Arrieta is in a sharp decline and has very little swing-and-miss stuff left now (16.4% K rate, 7.2% swinging strike rate).

 

I'm shocked that Arrieta is still owned in 95% of Yahoo leagues given that he can't strike anyone out anymore.  As Magnus88 correctly pointed out, Arrieta is "a pure streaming option now".  And we'll find out if he's even that anymore this Saturday at PNC Bank.  If Arrieta can't even pitch a good game against the Pirates, his ownership should drop to 0%.

 

 

I play in a league with a lot of fellow Cub fans.  I'm hoping Arrieta can cobble together a few quality starts in a row.  Then I can deal him for a halfway decent piece or two, instead of flat out releasing him.

 

Still confused by the drastic strikeout decline from 2017 to 2018.  Last year his fastball was routinely around 92 MPH.  This year I've seen it regularly hit 94 MPH.  I would suspect his offspeed stuff just isn't as effective.

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His swinging strike rate is down which is still concerning.  But his outing against Washington wasn’t that bad...

 

74 pitches; 5 INN, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB and 2 K.  Kapler lifted him for a PH in the bottom of the 5th inning.

 

Lack of strikeouts is concerning, hard to tell if he is pitching to contact or if he isn’t getting the same kind of movement.  His start against Pittsburgh in April was really strong, 10 k’s but since them it’s been a whole lot of “meh”

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3 hours ago, twelve20 said:

His swinging strike rate is down which is still concerning.  But his outing against Washington wasn’t that bad...

 

74 pitches; 5 INN, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB and 2 K.  Kapler lifted him for a PH in the bottom of the 5th inning.

 

Lack of strikeouts is concerning, hard to tell if he is pitching to contact or if he isn’t getting the same kind of movement.  His start against Pittsburgh in April was really strong, 10 k’s but since them it’s been a whole lot of “meh”

 

A 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP is about average fantasy-wise, but only 2 Ks in 5 IP is a liability.

 

Personally, I don't believe Arrieta is worth owning in fantasy anymore due to that putrid strikeout rate.  I can't imagine you could get anything at all for him in a trade right now (the time for that was in May when the ERA and WHIP were still shiny) and I think you would do better by freeing up a roster spot and streaming waiver wire guys with good matchups rather than holding Arrieta.

 

Like you said, Arrieta had his best start of the year vs. the Pirates in April and he has historically dominated the Pirates.  If Arrieta can't pitch well this weekend, we'll know that he's totally finished even in good matchups and his ownership rate should drop to 0%.

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8 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

A 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP is about average fantasy-wise, but only 2 Ks in 5 IP is a liability.

 

Personally, I don't believe Arrieta is worth owning in fantasy anymore due to that putrid strikeout rate.  I can't imagine you could get anything at all for him in a trade right now (the time for that was in May when the ERA and WHIP were still shiny) and I think you would do better by freeing up a roster spot and streaming waiver wire guys with good matchups rather than holding Arrieta.

 

Like you said, Arrieta had his best start of the year vs. the Pirates in April and he has historically dominated the Pirates.  If Arrieta can't pitch well this weekend, we'll know that he's totally finished even in good matchups and his ownership rate should drop to 0%.

 

Agreed, the lack of k's certainly hurts his value... that and his short outings.  With those two things hindering him, name value is the only thing truly keeping people from jumping ship.

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On 7/5/2018 at 4:14 PM, twelve20 said:

His swinging strike rate is down which is still concerning.  But his outing against Washington wasn’t that bad...

 

74 pitches; 5 INN, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB and 2 K.  Kapler lifted him for a PH in the bottom of the 5th inning.

 

Lack of strikeouts is concerning, hard to tell if he is pitching to contact or if he isn’t getting the same kind of movement.  His start against Pittsburgh in April was really strong, 10 k’s but since them it’s been a whole lot of “meh”

Well, if nothing else, Arrieta is definitely still good whenever he faces the Pirates.  Too bad he won't get to face the lowly Bucs again this year.

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5 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

Well, if nothing else, Arrieta is definitely still good whenever he faces the Pirates.  Too bad he won't get to face the lowly Bucs again this year.

Three of Arrieta's last four starts were solid, with the only bad start being against the Yankees.  The strikeout rate in three of the last four starts was also good.  Slowly but surely is he making progress?

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8 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

Three of Arrieta's last four starts were solid, with the only bad start being against the Yankees.  The strikeout rate in three of the last four starts was also good.  Slowly but surely is he making progress?

 

I don't know if I'd say that.  The two starts against STL and WSH were really mediocre; the only legitimately good start was against the Pirates (which was probably the best possible matchup for him, in an pitcher's park vs. a team he's always totally dominated throughout his career)

 

Arrieta vs. the Pirates this year in 2 starts: 2 wins, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 18 Ks in 14 IP

Arrieta vs. the rest of baseball this year in 15 starts: 4 wins, 3.85 ERA, 1.34 WHP, 51 Ks in 82 IP

 

We'll see how he does vs the Orioles this week.  I know the Orioles suck but I wouldn't feel nearly as good about this matchup as the one against the Pirates.  It will be in a hitter's park, he'll have to face a DH instead of a pitcher, and Machado scares me a lot more than anyone in the Pirates' offense.

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