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Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

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So I was clearly overly optimistic on Arrieta. I thought that given his high ground ball rate and very good soft-hit rate, he'd continue to hold an ERA lower than his FIP/xFIP. He's still beating his FIP/xFIP, but he was obviously atrocious in June, and outside of this start vs the Pirates there hasn't been much reason for optimism.

 

I'm trying to find some positive so I did notice that his past few starts he's been a different pitcher (pitch usage chart below):

 

image.png.8d4e9cd8799bc5f745a7ca608fe4c291.png

 

He's gone from a straight sinkerball pitcher to more of a sinker/slider pitcher. His slider was his monstrous pitch when he was an elite pitcher. It's no where near as good now, but he does have a .206 BAA and .315 slugging % on it this year. His curve on the other hand has been flat out terrible this year, so it'd be a good thing if he phased that out. Incorporating his slider more would obviously be a good thing if he continued to get great results on it. 

 

His zone contact % still stinks but last 3 starts he has a 11.1% swinging strike rate and his outside-zone contact rate, which was a horrendous 76.1% his first 14 starts, has dropped to 57.7% his past 3 starts. So, maybe he can bounce back some. I'm not really holding my breath based on 3 starts, only one of which you can really call a success, but at the least it bears watching to see how it plays out. 

 

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Should I trade for this guy?  Some of his advance statistics make me nervous.   Phillies defense isn't very good.

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48 minutes ago, B&F said:

Should I trade for this guy?  Some of his advance statistics make me nervous.   Phillies defense isn't very good.

 

Depends what you're giving, but I probably wouldn't view him as a trade target unless it was cheap. 

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On 7/8/2018 at 1:46 PM, Red Sox Nation said:

So I was clearly overly optimistic on Arrieta. I thought that given his high ground ball rate and very good soft-hit rate, he'd continue to hold an ERA lower than his FIP/xFIP. He's still beating his FIP/xFIP, but he was obviously atrocious in June, and outside of this start vs the Pirates there hasn't been much reason for optimism.

 

I'm trying to find some positive so I did notice that his past few starts he's been a different pitcher (pitch usage chart below):

 

image.png.8d4e9cd8799bc5f745a7ca608fe4c291.png

 

He's gone from a straight sinkerball pitcher to more of a sinker/slider pitcher. His slider was his monstrous pitch when he was an elite pitcher. It's no where near as good now, but he does have a .206 BAA and .315 slugging % on it this year. His curve on the other hand has been flat out terrible this year, so it'd be a good thing if he phased that out. Incorporating his slider more would obviously be a good thing if he continued to get great results on it. 

 

His zone contact % still stinks but last 3 starts he has a 11.1% swinging strike rate and his outside-zone contact rate, which was a horrendous 76.1% his first 14 starts, has dropped to 57.7% his past 3 starts. So, maybe he can bounce back some. I'm not really holding my breath based on 3 starts, only one of which you can really call a success, but at the least it bears watching to see how it plays out. 

 

 

I think the Cubs elite defense played a huge role in Arrieta beating his FIP/xFIP the past few years (the vast majority of Cubs pitchers the past few years have beaten their FIP/xFIP).   The Phillies defense is terrible, so I'm worried by the end of the year Arrieta's ERA will be up around 4 where his FIP/xFIP are.

 

Even though Arrieta's been better his past 4 starts, like you said only one of them was really a legitimately good start and that start was basically the perfect matchup for him: in a pitcher's park against an ice-cold Pirates team that he's always dominated throughout his career.

 

We'll see what happens against the Orioles this week.  Obviously you have to start him (there's really no point owning him if you're not going to start him vs. the team with the worst record in baseball), but I wouldn't feel nearly as good about this matchup as the one against the Pirates.  It will be in a hitter's park, he'll have to face a DH instead of a pitcher, and Machado scares me a lot more than anyone in the Pirates' offense.

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2 hours ago, bigbossman said:

Nice start but where are the K's? 

I play in a league with several other Cub fans, so there is some Arrieta nostalgia.  Pondering trying to sell high based off this recent solid run.  Other than versus the Yankees Arrieta hasn't had a bad start in his last five outings.

 

 

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11 hours ago, bigbossman said:

Nice start but where are the K's? 

 

7 IP, 0 ER, and a win is obviously a nice start but only 3 Ks in 7 IP against a weak offense is concerning.  Arrieta just doesn't seem to have the ability to miss any bats anymore, other than against the Pirates (his only two games with more than 7 Ks were against the Pirates game, and he only has one other game with more than 5 all year).

 

Against better offenses, it's going to be tough for him to maintain a good ERA with such a pitiful K rate.  If he starts one of the Phillies first three games out of the break against the Padres, he'll be worth using.  After that, the schedule gets much tougher again.

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On 7/8/2018 at 1:46 PM, Red Sox Nation said:

So I was clearly overly optimistic on Arrieta. I thought that given his high ground ball rate and very good soft-hit rate, he'd continue to hold an ERA lower than his FIP/xFIP. He's still beating his FIP/xFIP, but he was obviously atrocious in June, and outside of this start vs the Pirates there hasn't been much reason for optimism.

 

I'm trying to find some positive so I did notice that his past few starts he's been a different pitcher (pitch usage chart below):

 

image.png.8d4e9cd8799bc5f745a7ca608fe4c291.png

 

He's gone from a straight sinkerball pitcher to more of a sinker/slider pitcher. His slider was his monstrous pitch when he was an elite pitcher. It's no where near as good now, but he does have a .206 BAA and .315 slugging % on it this year. His curve on the other hand has been flat out terrible this year, so it'd be a good thing if he phased that out. Incorporating his slider more would obviously be a good thing if he continued to get great results on it. 

 

His zone contact % still stinks but last 3 starts he has a 11.1% swinging strike rate and his outside-zone contact rate, which was a horrendous 76.1% his first 14 starts, has dropped to 57.7% his past 3 starts. So, maybe he can bounce back some. I'm not really holding my breath based on 3 starts, only one of which you can really call a success, but at the least it bears watching to see how it plays out. 

 

 

Arrieta is no longer even streamable against bad opponents.  Can't strike out anyone at all anymore (other than the Pirates), he's walking too many guys, and he has one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him.  Seriously, how is this guy still 95% owned?

 

Coming up next for Arrieta: the Dodgers and the Red Sox.  If even the Padres can shell him, imagine what those teams will do against him

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Shuts down the Red Sox IN FENWAY.  Few started him or course.

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5 hours ago, B&F said:

Shuts down the Red Sox IN FENWAY.  Few started him or course.

has he turned a corner or did he catch the sox on an off night with no mookie?

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30.1 IP 2.67 ERA 26K in his last 5 starts.

 

clearly, he will never be an ace again.

 

but I'm seriously confused by some people claiming that he 'isn't even streamable anymore'

 

I bet that if this guy gets dropped in any league, almost all of the owners with the right mind will burn their waiver without even blinking

 

cut him some slack for god's sake.

 

HR/9 is in line with his career average, BB/9 is in line with his career average, inducing many groundballs as he did before.

 

K/9 was his only problem but he is recently getting better in that category, also.

 

3.96 FIP and .281 BABIP indicates that his performance is not heavily luck-based.

 

so good luck finding these numbers in the waivers.

 

he is a borderline SP2 - great SP3 in 16-teamer standard leagues, period.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by jhsong916
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20 hours ago, jhsong916 said:

30.1 IP 2.67 ERA 26K in his last 5 starts.

 

clearly, he will never be an ace again.

 

but I'm seriously confused by some people claiming that he 'isn't even streamable anymore'

 

I bet that if this guy gets dropped in any league, almost all of the owners with the right mind will burn their waiver without even blinking

 

cut him some slack for god's sake.

 

HR/9 is in line with his career average, BB/9 is in line with his career average, inducing many groundballs as he did before.

 

K/9 was his only problem but he is recently getting better in that category, also.

 

3.96 FIP and .281 BABIP indicates that his performance is not heavily luck-based.

 

so good luck finding these numbers in the waivers.

 

he is a borderline SP2 - great SP3 in 16-teamer standard leagues, period.

 

I thought he was going to get shelled at Fenway.  Obviously, I was wrong and that was by far the best game Arrieta pitched all year so I'll eat crow on that prediction.  

 

On the whole though, Arrieta has still been a bust this year relative to his ADP and I still stand by the advice I gave in mid-May to sell high on Arrieta when his ERA was a robust 2.59 and his WHIP was a shiny 1.05. 

 

Arrieta's ADP was 97.4 and his current rank is only 197 (mainly due to that microscopic strikeout rate).  His 3.96 FIP that you pointed out is significantly higher than his 3.24 ERA, so I'd say he has gotten lucky, especially given the Phillies poor defense.

 

The start at Fenway was a step in the right direction from him, but I'm going to need to see more than one great start before I can forget about how much Arrieta sucked vs San Diego two weeks ago and how much he has struggled to get any swings and misses all year (even when his ERA and WHIP were great in April and May)

Edited by FootballFan101
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26 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I thought he was going to get shelled at Fenway.  Obviously, I was wrong and that was by far the best game Arrieta pitched all year so I'll eat crow on that prediction.  

 

On the whole though, Arrieta has still been a bust this year relative to his ADP and I still stand by the advice I gave in mid-May to sell high on Arrieta when his ERA was a robust 2.59 and his WHIP was a shiny 1.05. 

 

Arrieta's ADP was 97.4 and his current rank is only 197 (mainly due to that microscopic strikeout rate).  His 3.96 FIP that you pointed out is significantly higher than his 3.24 ERA, so I'd say he has gotten lucky, especially given the Phillies poor defense.

 

The start at Fenway was a step in the right direction from him, but I'm going to need to see more than one great start before I can forget about how much Arrieta sucked vs San Diego two weeks ago and how much he has struggled to get any swings and misses all year (even when his ERA and WHIP were great in April and May)

 

compared to ADP, I agree with you. SP's who gets picked within the top 100 mark means that he is expected to be a SP #1 or at least has potential to be one.

and when it comes to Arrieta, even I didn't believe in him 'that' much.

 

but to be honest, I'm not even sure how his ADP went up to that mark.

I drafted him in 3 leagues and he was respectively drafted in 139, 146, 150.

(well, in the 5 leagues I didn't draft him, he went 62(wtf), 88, 108, 119, 174)

I drafted him to be my SP #2~#3 and he has been a solid one for sure.

 

and about 'selling him high', I tried. we all know that 'selling high' is hard, especially when it comes to well-performing veterans. people know what they are going to get at the end of the day when it comes to veterans so their value is somewhat fixed throughout the season. so it's hard to 'buy low' or 'sell high'.

 

I can definitely agree with you that he won't reach that early-season stats which he maintained a mid 2-ERA and 1.0~1.1 WHIP. he won't, ever.

but with his well-polished repertoire and great control, I still think he has a solid year or two left in his tank.

 

he seems like the kind of pitcher who ages well, I see him being at least a solid SP3 for a year or two, barring any injuries.

Edited by jhsong916

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On 8/2/2018 at 9:37 PM, jhsong916 said:

 

compared to ADP, I agree with you. SP's who gets picked within the top 100 mark means that he is expected to be a SP #1 or at least has potential to be one.

and when it comes to Arrieta, even I didn't believe in him 'that' much.

 

but to be honest, I'm not even sure how his ADP went up to that mark.

I drafted him in 3 leagues and he was respectively drafted in 139, 146, 150.

(well, in the 5 leagues I didn't draft him, he went 62(wtf), 88, 108, 119, 174)

I drafted him to be my SP #2~#3 and he has been a solid one for sure.

 

and about 'selling him high', I tried. we all know that 'selling high' is hard, especially when it comes to well-performing veterans. people know what they are going to get at the end of the day when it comes to veterans so their value is somewhat fixed throughout the season. so it's hard to 'buy low' or 'sell high'.

 

I can definitely agree with you that he won't reach that early-season stats which he maintained a mid 2-ERA and 1.0~1.1 WHIP. he won't, ever.

but with his well-polished repertoire and great control, I still think he has a solid year or two left in his tank.

 

he seems like the kind of pitcher who ages well, I see him being at least a solid SP3 for a year or two, barring any injuries.

 

On paper, SD would seem to be a good matchup, but Arrieta did have a terrible start against them last month.

 

Now that Jon Lester's ERA has corrected the past month, there's not a pitcher in baseball who has been luckier than Jake Arrieta this year: 3.11 ERA vs. 4.10 xFIP and 3.89 FIP.  Especially when you consider that the Phillies are one of the worst defenses teams in baseball.  Have to think it's only a matter of time before a Lester-like correction is coming.

Edited by FootballFan101
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I agree that SD start has Trap Game written all over it, but Arrieta has pitched significantly better in the 2nd half and has a FIP and xFIP to reflect that; 3.33 and 3.72 respectfully. 

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4 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

On paper, SD would seem to be a good matchup, but Arrieta did have a terrible start against them last month.

 

Now that Jon Lester's ERA has corrected the past month, there's not a pitcher in baseball who has been luckier than Jake Arrieta this year: 3.11 ERA vs. 4.10 xFIP and 3.89 FIP.  Especially when you consider that the Phillies are one of the worst defenses teams in baseball.  Have to think it's only a matter of time before a Lester-like correction is coming.

Gambler's fallacy 

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5 hours ago, Smantzas said:

Gambler's fallacy 

Seriously.

How are people still so down? He's looked pretty darn good since the ASB, and yeah... the Ks aren't going to be as great as once before, but honestly if this guy can go something like 3.5ERA, 1.2WHIP, with a K/9 of 7 rest of the way I'm on board. That isn't terrible by any stretch, and only sucks in relation to his ADP.

There are def worse guys to stream, and Arrieta is streamable. Dude should be owned in most leagues as a back end guy, and I'd be buying at a discount right now.

His main issue this season is LHH, and he's been solid vs RHH.

2nd half FIP is 3.11/xFIP 3.93 with increased K/9 and decreased BB/9 since the break. Best in low leverage situations vs high, RISP has been an issue. He's just been better at home.

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Schedule lines up for some heavy Mets and Marlins down the stretch, too. I think when all is said and done, his numbers will be just fine

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16 hours ago, miamifin33 said:

I agree that SD start has Trap Game written all over it, but Arrieta has pitched significantly better in the 2nd half and has a FIP and xFIP to reflect that; 3.33 and 3.72 respectfully. 

 

Already two on, no out.  He just sucks vs the Padres.

 

His ERA this year has been perfectly respectable I admit, but I'd be very worried he's due for a Jon Lester like regression to his FIP and xFIP.  Even with the good ERA, he still hasn't lived up to his ADP because of that microscopic K rate.

Edited by FootballFan101

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17 hours ago, miamifin33 said:

I agree that SD start has Trap Game written all over it, but Arrieta has pitched significantly better in the 2nd half and has a FIP and xFIP to reflect that; 3.33 and 3.72 respectfully. 

Very predictable shelling today.  Like Lester, Arrieta has pitched poorly all year, just had been getting ridiculously lucky

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7 hours ago, cad300 said:

Schedule lines up for some heavy Mets and Marlins down the stretch, too. I think when all is said and done, his numbers will be just fine

 

I hear you about the upcoming matchups, but Arrieta has actually pitched worse this year in the cream puff matchups (got shelled against the Marlins in April, has gotten shelled vs the Padres twice now) than he has against good offenses (shut down the Dodgers twice, the Braves once, and the Red Sox).  He simply can't strike out anyone regardless of the opponent, just tries to get ground balls, and hope that he gets lucky and they hit it right at his infielders

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On 8/12/2018 at 11:51 AM, cad300 said:

Schedule lines up for some heavy Mets and Marlins down the stretch, too. I think when all is said and done, his numbers will be just fine

 

The Mets offense is suddenly red-hot.  If I owned any shares of Arrieta, I wouldn't have trusted him enough to start him anyways (given the number of blowups he's had vs bad teams), but now given the Mets' recent offensive outbursts, I wouldn't touch Arrieta with a 10 foot pole.

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48 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

The Mets offense is suddenly red-hot.  If I owned any shares of Arrieta, I wouldn't have trusted him enough to start him anyways (given the number of blowups he's had vs bad teams), but now given the Mets' recent offensive outbursts, I wouldn't touch Arrieta with a 10 foot pole.

Yeah you've said this about 8 times. We get it. 

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On 8/16/2018 at 7:53 PM, FootballFan101 said:

 

The Mets offense is suddenly red-hot.  If I owned any shares of Arrieta, I wouldn't have trusted him enough to start him anyways (given the number of blowups he's had vs bad teams), but now given the Mets' recent offensive outbursts, I wouldn't touch Arrieta with a 10 foot pole.

6k 6ip 0.67whip 1.5 era qs

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