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Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

6k 6ip 0.67whip 1.5 era qs

 

Ok, fine, he pitched well today.  It's going to take a lot more than 1 good start for me to trust.  He's still has gotten destroyed by the Padres twice in the last month and has one of the worst K rates in baseball.  He still hasn't been anywhere near worth his ADP even though he's gotten really lucky with ERA (3.33 ERA coming into today vs a 3.95 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP despite the Phillies being one of the worst defensive teams in baseball).

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Defense is not the only reason an ERA will fall below FIP. Arrieta has always excelled at creating weak contact and he's continuing to do so.

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8 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I didn't realize that in FBB his FIP and xFIP account for anything. Wait... I just checked... my league counts ERA, not FIP or xFIP. So who cares?

 

It's your fault if you went out and drafted a 32 year old and expected him to be an ace. He has been really good in his career 3 times, good once. By your own claim of FIP and xFIP being the end game, he had poor marks in both last season... so why did you draft him? 32 year old pitcher with seasons of 156IP, 229IP, 197IP, 168IP, moving to a hitter's ballpark with a terrible IF and OF defence behind him... If you took him expected some magic, that's on you. Own it and deal with it.

 

FYI, I own zero shares for Arrieta.  I drafted him in one league (at pick 123, a little below his ADP, but still a bad pick I'll admit).  Even though his ERA and WHIP were good the first two months of the year, I was alarmed by how few batters he was striking out and [Removed Cool Story]

 

If you want to go ahead and ignore FIP and xFIP just because they aren't fantasy categories, then go ahead.  But to me, it's very concerning when there's such a difference between ERA and FIP/xFIP.  Just ask Jon Lester owners about ERA correction.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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3 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

FYI, I own zero shares for Arrieta.  I drafted him in one league (at pick 123, a little below his ADP, but still a bad pick I'll admit).  Even though his ERA and WHIP were good the first two months of the year, I was alarmed by how few batters he was striking out and [Removed Cool Story]

 

If you want to go ahead and ignore FIP and xFIP just because they aren't fantasy categories, then go ahead.  But to me, it's very concerning when there's such a difference between ERA and FIP/xFIP.  Just ask Jon Lester owners about ERA correction.

So why are you constantly in here? He's been absolutely fine pretty much all year. 

 

Jake Arrieta isn't Jon Lester, and Lester has a lot more going on under the hood. FIP/xFIP/SIERA aren't even the be all end all. You can't just say "This guys FIP says X so he's must be X." GB, LD, K-BB, exit Velo, hard contact, velocity, etc all matter. You're ignoring so much. Lester =/= Arrieta. But nice try. 

Edited by tonycpsu
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45 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

So why are you constantly in here? He's been absolutely fine pretty much all year. 

 

Jake Arrieta isn't Jon Lester, and Lester has a lot more going on under the hood. FIP/xFIP/SIERA aren't even the be all end all. You can't just say "This guys FIP says X so he's must be X." GB, LD, K-BB, exit Velo, hard contact, velocity, etc all matter. You're ignoring so much. Lester =/= Arrieta. But nice try. 

 

I never said Arrieta was exactly equal to Lester.  I was just using Lester as a more extreme example of ERA generally correcting itself over time.

 

When I traded Arrieta at the end of May, he had a 2.16 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP despite only 6.2 K/9 IP (17.2 K%) and a 4.07 xFIP.  Since the start of June, Arrieta has a 4.05 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and 6.9 K/9 IP (18.3 K%).  Interestingly, his xFIP since the start of June is 4.11, almost exactly the same as his xFIP from April/May.  Arrieta's still pretty much the same pitcher he was in April/May, just not getting lucky anymore.

 

You can say what you want, but clearly there has been an ERA correction with Arrieta over the past 2 and 1/2 months and I'm certainly glad I traded him in May.

Edited by FootballFan101

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10 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I never said Arrieta was exactly equal to Lester.  I was just using Lester as a more extreme example of ERA generally correcting itself over time.

 

When I traded Arrieta at the end of May, he had a 2.16 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP despite only 6.2 K/9 IP (17.2 K%) and a 4.07 xFIP.  Since the start of June, Arrieta has a 4.05 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and 6.9 K/9 IP (18.3 K%).  Interestingly, his xFIP since the start of June is 4.11, almost exactly the same as his xFIP from April/May.  Arrieta's still pretty much the same pitcher he was in April/May, just not getting lucky anymore.

 

You can say what you want, but clearly there has been an ERA correction with Arrieta over the past 2 and 1/2 months and I'm certainly glad I traded him in May.

Why use an extreme example instead of one more appropriate?

If we're going to cherry-pick time frames, here's a few:
April 8th to May 29th (10 starts): 5-2, 58IP, 6.17K/9, 2.93BB/9, .216ERA 3.21FIP 4.07xFIP
June 3rd to August 18th: 14GS, 4-6, 80IP, 6.86K/9, 2.59BB/9, 4.05ERA, 4.31FIP, 4.11xFIP
Jult 29th to August 18th: 6GS, 35IP, 7.39K/9, 2.29BB/9, 3.31ERA, 3.19FIP, 3.95xFIP

Hmm... Looks to me like since the ASB he's made a change, doesn't it? 

I want to know what your obsession with xFIP is though... It's not that great of a stat, and you're still ignoring all his other peripherals as I stated.

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4 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Why use an extreme example instead of one more appropriate?

If we're going to cherry-pick time frames, here's a few:
April 8th to May 29th (10 starts): 5-2, 58IP, 6.17K/9, 2.93BB/9, .216ERA 3.21FIP 4.07xFIP
June 3rd to August 18th: 14GS, 4-6, 80IP, 6.86K/9, 2.59BB/9, 4.05ERA, 4.31FIP, 4.11xFIP
Jult 29th to August 18th: 6GS, 35IP, 7.39K/9, 2.29BB/9, 3.31ERA, 3.19FIP, 3.95xFIP

Hmm... Looks to me like since the ASB he's made a change, doesn't it? 

I want to know what your obsession with xFIP is though... It's not that great of a stat, and you're still ignoring all his other peripherals as I stated.

 

He's just been getting luckier again over the past 3 weeks, not really pitching much better.  His xFIP is still almost the same during that period and his K rate while a little better is still very weak.  And by the way, your July 29th-August 18th timeframe for post ASB stats conveniently ignores his first post ASB where he was absolutely destroyed by the Padres.

 

Anyways, I'm done arguing about this.  If you want to consider Arrieta as a 2.16 ERA caliber pitcher like he had in April/May, then go ahead, that's your right, but I'm certainly happy with the trade I made.

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Just now, FootballFan101 said:

 

He's just been getting luckier again over the past 3 weeks, not really pitching much better.  His xFIP is still almost the same during that period and his K rate while a little better is still very weak.  And by the way, your July 29th-August 18th timeframe for post ASB stats conveniently ignores his first post ASB where he was absolutely destroyed by the Padres.

 

Anyways, I'm done arguing about this.  If you want to consider Arrieta as a 2.16 ERA caliber pitcher like he had in April/May, then go ahead, that's your right, but I'm certainly happy with the trade I made.

Has he been getting luckier?

On the year his BABIP is .278
For his career it's .269
The stretch you cited (June 3rd to August 18th) his BABIP is .285
His last 6 starts his BABIP is .294... if anything, more unlucky. 

Let's throw in your Padres start, I didn't mean to discount it - just picked a date. His ERA is 3.31 since then. So... ???

I don't consider him anything like a 2.16ERA pitcher. I didn't draft him, but I did trade for him expecting a 3.5-3.7ERA pitcher, which is perfectly fine for my team.

You've still failed to address most of my points. Disappointing. 

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I don't consider him anything like a 2.16ERA pitcher. I didn't draft him, but I did trade for him expecting a 3.5-3.7ERA pitcher, which is perfectly fine for my team.

 

A 3.50-3.75 ERA, when it comes along with a K rate of less than 7 per 9 IP, isn't worth much in fantasy, especially in innings capped leagues.  [Removed Cool Story]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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[A couple personal attacks removed.  "Find a new hobby" and "did he bang ur wife" are not acceptable comments to make toward another poster here.]

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

A 3.50-3.75 ERA, when it comes along with a K rate of less than 7 per 9 IP, isn't worth much in fantasy, especially in innings capped leagues.  [Removed Cool Story]

No? It isn't? Seems to me that my ERA and WHIP from Arrieta has been pretty solid. And don't start with innings capped stuff. We're not getting into league specifics here, simple 5x5 as usual. In which case ESPN's Player Rater has him in the top 35. 

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39 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

No? It isn't? Seems to me that my ERA and WHIP from Arrieta has been pretty solid. And don't start with innings capped stuff. We're not getting into league specifics here, simple 5x5 as usual. In which case ESPN's Player Rater has him in the top 35. 

Standard 5x5 Roto leagues have seasonal innings limits.

 

The reason Arrieta is ranked 34th on the player rater is because of his 3.25 ERA.  If his ERA corrects to the 3.50-3.75 range (which is what you said you expected) to go along with that miniscule K rate, he wouldn't be worth a lot in fantasy (a SP 5 or SP 4 at best)

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On 8/2/2018 at 1:06 AM, jhsong916 said:

30.1 IP 2.67 ERA 26K in his last 5 starts.

 

clearly, he will never be an ace again.

 

but I'm seriously confused by some people claiming that he 'isn't even streamable anymore'

 

I bet that if this guy gets dropped in any league, almost all of the owners with the right mind will burn their waiver without even blinking

 

cut him some slack for god's sake.

 

HR/9 is in line with his career average, BB/9 is in line with his career average, inducing many groundballs as he did before.

 

K/9 was his only problem but he is recently getting better in that category, also.

 

3.96 FIP and .281 BABIP indicates that his performance is not heavily luck-based.

 

so good luck finding these numbers in the waivers.

 

he is a borderline SP2 - great SP3 in 16-teamer standard leagues, period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Honestly he's been waiver wire caliber over the past 3 months since the start of June, below average in every fantasy category:

 

4 wins, 4.19 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 66 Ks in 86 IP

 

Those stats don't include tonight's disaster.

 

 

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Honestly he's been waiver wire caliber over the past 3 months since the start of June, below average in every fantasy category:

 

4 wins, 4.19 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 66 Ks in 86 IP

 

Those stats don't include tonight's disaster.

 

 

 

yeah, I think he is going to be top 500 ROS and over 6.00 ERA with sub 6 K/9, he's going to disappear into the dark next year and become the pitcher version of Chris Davis. not even worth a look in any kind of fantasy format, hope he never gets drafted by anyone next year.

 

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42 minutes ago, jhsong916 said:

 

yeah, I think he is going to be top 500 ROS and over 6.00 ERA with sub 6 K/9, he's going to disappear into the dark next year and become the pitcher version of Chris Davis. not even worth a look in any kind of fantasy format, hope he never gets drafted by anyone next year.

 

 

So...he will become James Shields?

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Its Week 1 of the playoffs so how do we feel about Jake versus Washington at Home? He got tagged vs them last time he faced them at home, probably a safe "No-play" today right?

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Torn on this one.  He’s been bad for the last month and got lit up last time he faced Washington (maybe I’m not so torn now that I think about it).  Are people starting him today?

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