JohnD

Julian Edelman 2018 Outlook

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What does everyone think about the return of Julian Edelman this year? Haven't heard much about his recovery but he's had the entire season as well as the upcoming off-season to get healthy.

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Not really my kind of player, but he could be useful as a WR3 type, especially if Gronk retires to pursue his film career.

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Edelman will be drafted as a WR2 and probably produce closer to WR3 numbers(assuming Gronk is back).  Gonna be alot of mouths to feed with Gronk, Cooks, Edelman and Hogan

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43 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Edelman will be drafted as a WR2 and probably produce closer to WR3 numbers(assuming Gronk is back).  Gonna be alot of mouths to feed with Gronk, Cooks, Edelman and Hogan

 

And if Gronk hangs them up?

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10 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

And if Gronk hangs them up?

 

Edelman eats. 

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I worry about Edelman honestly.  He will be 32 by time next season starts and coming off a lost season due to torn ACL.

 

Many of us, myself included, are so programmed to believe, "eh, lots of guys come back fine, this should be nothing", but this is a pretty big deal.

 

32 year olds don't heal as fast as 22 year olds.

 

And Edelman is a guy that has never made his money beating guys on deep go and post routes, he's been a guy that has had incredible breaks in his routes that can leave defenders frozen in place.  For sharp cuts and breaks generally you need strong, healthy knees able to perform these tasks over and over again.

 

I root for him, but likely won't take a chance on him without really turning my head in preseason and good value presented on draft day.

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9 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

And if Gronk hangs them up?

Best case a solid WR2 in ppr.  I mean look at his stats he has never finished a season as better then a WR2 in ppr.  That is in seasons where his QB wasn't 41 and he wasn't 32 coming off ACL surgery.

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He is a bad cap hit in my contract league (I traded a bad contract I inherited on Eifert for him). The guy who had Eifert just took the cap hit and cut him. I might be doing the same. At some point, a guy is not worth having on the roster.

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On February 21, 2018 at 12:53 AM, theSPANKER said:

 

And if Gronk hangs them up?

Cooks & Hogan become value picks

 

edit: They sign Graham

Edited by psygolf
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How do we feel about him with Cooks gone now? 

The Patriots added Jordan Matthews in free agency, traded for Corderelle Patterson and took Braxton Berrios in the draft, their new 5'9 white slot receiver. 

I search Edelman trying to find news about his recovery or role for the upcoming season but it's the Patriots so of course the only thing you see is the thing about him possibly thwarting a school shooting. 

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His current ADP per FFCalc is insanely low at WR39 (overall pick 91).  In PPR, he's going to blow that ADP away.

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Since 2013, he has not registered fewer then 9.4 targets, caught 92 or more passes for 972 yards + in three of those seasons (in his shortened season of 2015, he was pacing for 108 catches and over 1,230 yards). I expect him to have another season with a large chunk of the passing targets. I will be viewing him as good quality WR2 in PPR formats. 

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On 4/30/2018 at 2:38 PM, J.T. Marlin said:

His current ADP per FFCalc is insanely low at WR39 (overall pick 91).  In PPR, he's going to blow that ADP away.

That's going to climb closer to the season

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WRBC

 

Wide Receiver By Committe 

 

Edelman’s upside is Golden Tate, but he’s more likely to produce like a WR3.

 

Tate is the definition of consistency.  Edelman is going to be the opposite.  

 

No thanks.  He’s a guy to like more on DraftKings etc. where you can set up multiple rosters...

 

 

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

WRBC

 

Wide Receiver By Committe 

 

Edelman’s upside is Golden Tate, but he’s more likely to produce like a WR3.

 

Tate is the definition of consistency.  Edelman is going to be the opposite.  

 

No thanks.  He’s a guy to like more on DraftKings etc. where you can set up multiple rosters...

 

 

Edelman’s PPR ppg since 2013 is 

2013-15.4

2014-15.2

2015-19.1

2016-14.1

 

I would say that is the model of consistency ?

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1 hour ago, The Three Reynolds said:

Edelman’s PPR ppg since 2013 is 

2013-15.4

2014-15.2

2015-19.1

2016-14.1

 

I would say that is the model of consistency ?

Agree with that. Edelman is a ppr stud. I wonder when he falls off the cliff but don't think it is this year. No issue with him as a border wr1 and real solid wr2 in ppr. 

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If he stays healthy it's Matthews who will lead that receiving corp. He fits that offense like a glove. He runs great routes, has excellent hands, etc. A typical Patriot type.

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2 hours ago, South Carolina said:

If he stays healthy it's Matthews who will lead that receiving corp. He fits that offense like a glove. He runs great routes, has excellent hands, etc. A typical Patriot type.

 

I can't imagine Matthews getting the mind-meld that Brady and Edelman have, maybe in time, but Matthews is more likely to be cut than he is likely to get above a backup role here.   His dead cap is just 170K.   I think Matthews's ceiling is the Amendola role- makes a few plays now and then, depending on the matchup maybe he's targeted heavily, but he'll disappear a lot.   

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3 minutes ago, beotos said:

Gotta wonder how long TB12 can keep it goin'. He'll be 41 when the seasons starts.

 

His insane postseason output should squash any thought of him hitting that wall this year.    

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6 hours ago, beotos said:

Gotta wonder how long TB12 can keep it goin'. He'll be 41 when the seasons starts.

 

It's a fair question. I think once he gets injured we'll know. It's so much harder to rehab at his age. The body just can't recover like when you were younger.

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I like Edelman alot now that Cooks is out of the picture.  But is the injury risk worth it? 

 

In 1-pt ppr what are you willing to pay for him?  In redraft leagues this year, is 4th/5th round too soon to acquire him?  

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Edelman is like Larry Fitz.  Always underrated, yet always produces.

 

In full point PPR, if I can somehow get two of Fitz, Edelman, Landry, and Tate, I'll be really happy.  Haven't looked much at ADPs yet, but I am guessing it's going to cost a late 3rd (Fitz),  4th, or 5th round picks. 

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