JohnD

Julian Edelman 2018 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, devaster said:

What doghouse is he in? I'd expect him to get a full workload when he returns in week 5. I don't know if his ADP will drop much. 

 

Phrasing was poor- IF the coaches were pissed at him for getting suspended, then he's in a doghouse.   If someone plays well while he's out, he might get some extra time in the hole and struggle to get back to his old self. 

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3 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

All those guys are going before the 8th.

 

Assuming 8th is accurate, he is in with Jordy/Kupp

That's what I'm saying.  If I was going to draft this guy in the 4th, instead I'll be spending picks on the receivers I mentioned instead.  I think Corey Davis is a sneaky breakout pick as the #1 for the Titans, and Crabtree seems to be establishing himself in Baltimore.  Not going to wait till week 5 for Edelman and then watch him take a week or two to "get into game shape".  That's half the fantasy regular season.

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Hogan seems like a guy they'll pepper heavily one week and little the next.  Guessing it depends on who's covering him and if they see it as a weakness.   If he's the lead dog on the outside, he's not going to have Cooks attracting perimeter CB attention, that could make a big difference.    

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50 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Phrasing was poor- IF the coaches were pissed at him for getting suspended, then he's in a doghouse.   If someone plays well while he's out, he might get some extra time in the hole and struggle to get back to his old self. 

Sure bud ... 

 

when I heard the news I knew all the haters would be gunning 

Edited by shakestreet

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A Patriot, cheating?  Super weird

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Everyone should take a look at their copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy and not panic.

 

First, an ESPN source is reporting that Edelman is appealing his suspension on the basis that he has taken "hundreds" of tests before and has never tested positive.  Secondly, Richard Sherman won his appeal against a four-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs in 2012, so it's not set in stone yet.

 

Finally, even if he serves the suspension, I might have been looking to start a WR with a better matchup in 3 of the Patriots first four games anyway--they host the Houston Texans' defense in the season opener, then go on the road for games against the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense and the Matt Patricia-coached Detroit Lions' defense before returning home against the Dolphins.  So he may only miss like one game in which he would be an effective starter anyway.

 

And let's not be silly about Brady not targeting Edelman when he returns; that's just not going to happen.  Edelman is Brady's favorite WR target of all time, he's not going to get snubbed just because he's "in the doghouse."

 

I think there's a real window of opportunity here, as Edelman was already being underdrafted as a top 15 PPR WR (on a ppg basis every year since 2013) in something like the 7th round as the WR30.  Now you might be able to add a top 15 WR for next to nothing--at least while the threat of suspension still looms.

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53 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

Everyone should take a look at their copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy and not panic.

 

First, an ESPN source is reporting that Edelman is appealing his suspension on the basis that he has taken "hundreds" of tests before and has never tested positive.  Secondly, Richard Sherman won his appeal against a four-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs in 2012, so it's not set in stone yet.

 

Finally, even if he serves the suspension, I might have been looking to start a WR with a better matchup in 3 of the Patriots first four games anyway--they host the Houston Texans' defense in the season opener, then go on the road for games against the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense and the Matt Patricia-coached Detroit Lions' defense before returning home against the Dolphins.  So he may only miss like one game in which he would be an effective starter anyway.

 

And let's not be silly about Brady not targeting Edelman when he returns; that's just not going to happen.  Edelman is Brady's favorite WR target of all time, he's not going to get snubbed just because he's "in the doghouse."

 

I think there's a real window of opportunity here, as Edelman was already being underdrafted as a top 15 PPR WR (on a ppg basis every year since 2013) in something like the 7th round as the WR30.  Now you might be able to add a top 15 WR for next to nothing--at least while the threat of suspension still looms.

 

Edelman even at his peak wasn't a top-15 PPR WR for an entire season. Unwise to bet on a age-32 WR coming off a torn ACL and missing at least 1/3 of your 2018 fantasy regular season unless he's costing you almost nothing to acquire. 

 

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44 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

Everyone should take a look at their copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy and not panic.

 

First, an ESPN source is reporting that Edelman is appealing his suspension on the basis that he has taken "hundreds" of tests before and has never tested positive.  Secondly, Richard Sherman won his appeal against a four-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs in 2012, so it's not set in stone yet.

 

Finally, even if he serves the suspension, I might have been looking to start a WR with a better matchup in 3 of the Patriots first four games anyway--they host the Houston Texans' defense in the season opener, then go on the road for games against the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense and the Matt Patricia-coached Detroit Lions' defense before returning home against the Dolphins.  So he may only miss like one game in which he would be an effective starter anyway.

 

And let's not be silly about Brady not targeting Edelman when he returns; that's just not going to happen.  Edelman is Brady's favorite WR target of all time, he's not going to get snubbed just because he's "in the doghouse."

 

I think there's a real window of opportunity here, as Edelman was already being underdrafted as a top 15 PPR WR (on a ppg basis every year since 2013) in something like the 7th round as the WR30.  Now you might be able to add a top 15 WR for next to nothing--at least while the threat of suspension still looms.

Fantasy football calculator ADP PPR has Edelman at 51.  I can't imagine that if you were going to spend a 4th/5th on him (before the suspension news) that you would have considered sitting him for 3 or 4 weeks.  If you have spent that draft capital, he's one of your starters, period.  Now?  Sure, I agree he's not worth that cost.  I guess where his ADP falls to will determine whether or not he's a bargain.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

They are completely different types of receivers.


Okay... yet they'll still be down the #1 for 4 games.

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Whether Brady loves Edelman or not, it is highly doubtful that BB is amused by this story.  The Patriot's dog house is very real, and almost no one is immune.  Brady can't throw passes to a WR who is on the sidelines in street clothes because a still-furious Belichick leaves him inactive, even after his suspension ends.

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23 minutes ago, CooL said:

Fantasy football calculator ADP PPR has Edelman at 51.  I can't imagine that if you were going to spend a 4th/5th on him (before the suspension news) that you would have considered sitting him for 3 or 4 weeks.  If you have spent that draft capital, he's one of your starters, period.  Now?  Sure, I agree he's not worth that cost.  I guess where his ADP falls to will determine whether or not he's a bargain.

 

I drafted Pryor in round 3 (lmao) last year and benched him after week 2. I think most people start their drafted 'starters' week 1, maybe give them one more chance week 2, then cut bait (given match up / replacement).. 

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1 minute ago, JSA2422 said:

 

I drafted Pryor in round 3 (lmao) last year and benched him after week 2. I think most people start their drafted 'starters' week 1, maybe give them one more chance week 2, then cut bait (given match up / replacement).. 

If you are in a league where you can afford to cut bait on your round 3 draft pick after just two weeks, then kudos to you.

Axe Elf was saying even if he drafted him, he would have sat him for better options for potentially the first four weeks.  If that's the case, then why even draft the guy?

Presumably guys drafted in your first four rounds or so are autostarts, at least in deep leagues.

 

I'm not touching this guy unless he is dirt dirt cheap.  This isn't a Le'Veon Bell situation where he's guaranteed to be a weekly difference maker when he comes back.  He'll have Hogan and now even Jordan Matthews to compete for targets with when he comes back, not to mention Gronk and all the RBs.

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19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Whether Brady loves Edelman or not, it is highly doubtful that BB is amused by this story.  The Patriot's dog house is very real, and almost no one is immune.  Brady can't throw passes to a WR who is on the sidelines in street clothes because a still-furious Belichick leaves him inactive, even after his suspension ends.

 

BB prob leaked the story to make Guerrero look bad. Dude is a savage.

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2 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

Everyone should take a look at their copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy and not panic.

 

First, an ESPN source is reporting that Edelman is appealing his suspension on the basis that he has taken "hundreds" of tests before and has never tested positive.  Secondly, Richard Sherman won his appeal against a four-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs in 2012, so it's not set in stone yet.

 

Finally, even if he serves the suspension, I might have been looking to start a WR with a better matchup in 3 of the Patriots first four games anyway--they host the Houston Texans' defense in the season opener, then go on the road for games against the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense and the Matt Patricia-coached Detroit Lions' defense before returning home against the Dolphins.  So he may only miss like one game in which he would be an effective starter anyway.

 

And let's not be silly about Brady not targeting Edelman when he returns; that's just not going to happen.  Edelman is Brady's favorite WR target of all time, he's not going to get snubbed just because he's "in the doghouse."

 

I think there's a real window of opportunity here, as Edelman was already being underdrafted as a top 15 PPR WR (on a ppg basis every year since 2013) in something like the 7th round as the WR30.  Now you might be able to add a top 15 WR for next to nothing--at least while the threat of suspension still looms.

 

Texans gave up a crap ton of points to QBs and WRs last year; 2nd most and 6th. Add Watson carving up the Pats D and that matchup looks juicy to me.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

Edelman even at his peak wasn't a top-15 PPR WR for an entire season. Unwise to bet on a age-32 WR coming off a torn ACL and missing at least 1/3 of your 2018 fantasy regular season unless he's costing you almost nothing to acquire. 

 

Edelman's PPR standings  (per Fantasy Pros):

 

2013

Overall:  #14 (16 games)

PPG:  #18

 

2014

Overall:  #17 (14 games)

PPG:  #15

 

2015

Overall:  #38 (9 games)

PPG:  #7

 

2016

Overall:  #15 (16 games)

PPG:  #17

 

So yes, every year he has played all 16 games since 2013, Edelman has been a top 15 WR overall, and in every year that he did not play all 16 games, he has been a top 15 WR on a points-per-game basis.

 

You seem to be criticizing his age on the basis of RB life expectancy, since RBs often decline after the age of 30.  However, the cliff for WRs doesn't come until around age 35--and Edelman was used so sparingly in his first four years in the league (69 total receptions from 2009-2012, that he's really only had five seasons worth of wear and tear.  If there's anything to be concerned about, it would be his fairly ominous injury history--but no one is safe from the injury bug on any given play at any given time, either.  Heck, even Keenan Allen played a full season last year.

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2 hours ago, CooL said:

Fantasy football calculator ADP PPR has Edelman at 51.  I can't imagine that if you were going to spend a 4th/5th on him (before the suspension news) that you would have considered sitting him for 3 or 4 weeks.  If you have spent that draft capital, he's one of your starters, period.  Now?  Sure, I agree he's not worth that cost.  I guess where his ADP falls to will determine whether or not he's a bargain.

 

Oh, sure, I probly woulda started Edelman in those difficult early games--but I'd have no reason to expect that he was going to set the field on fire against those defenses--or even perform significantly better than my next men up at WR, which in the two leagues I've drafted so far would be someone like Pierre Garcon or Marvin Jones.

 

How much of a bargain is getting a top-15 WR for the rest of the season at WR4 prices?

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52 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

Texans gave up a crap ton of points to QBs and WRs last year; 2nd most and 6th. Add Watson carving up the Pats D and that matchup looks juicy to me.

 

Yeah, but they had a hard time getting effective pressure on the QB after J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus went out for the season after Week 5 (and starting DE Christian Covington followed in Week 7).  Through Week 6, the Texans had the #7 overall fantasy defense, but ended the year at #28.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Whether Brady loves Edelman or not, it is highly doubtful that BB is amused by this story.  The Patriot's dog house is very real, and almost no one is immune.  Brady can't throw passes to a WR who is on the sidelines in street clothes because a still-furious Belichick leaves him inactive, even after his suspension ends.

 

That's not going to happen.

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40 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

How much of a bargain is getting a top-15 WR for the rest of the season at WR4 prices?

Depends on how much the time machine costs...

Edited by psygolf
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42 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

That's not going to happen.

You are positive that Belichick won't harshly punish Tom Brady's buddy for embarrassing the team by getting a PED suspension?  Mike Gillislee may have a different view...

Edited by SharkSwimmer

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27 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You are positive that Belichick won't harshly punish Tom Brady's buddy for embarrassing the team by getting a PED suspension?  Mike Gillislee may have a different view...

 

"Ninkovich did say the Patriots were very supportive of him during his suspension, which was also for the first four games of the season and lasted until Oct. 3, 2016."

https://www.weei.com/blogs/lucy-burdge/rob-ninkovich-julian-edelman-suspension-i-feel-jules

 

If the guy can play, he's gonna play.

 

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You are positive that Belichick won't harshly punish Tom Brady's buddy for embarrassing the team by getting a PED suspension?  Mike Gillislee may have a different view...

Every thread concerning anything Patriots you are there ... the energizer bunny has nothing on you

 

Common sense dictates if Jules is healthy no way any of the s--- you write is going to happen 

 

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If the suspension holds, Edelman loses a whopping $1 million in salary, correct?  

 

Imagine having that much income at the mercy of some lab grinding out hundreds of pee tests at a few hundred bucks a pop.

 

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You are positive that Belichick won't harshly punish Tom Brady's buddy for embarrassing the team by getting a PED suspension?  Mike Gillislee may have a different view...

 

I'm as positive as Edelman was.

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