JohnD

Julian Edelman 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Every thread concerning anything Patriots you are there ... the energizer bunny has nothing on you

 

Common sense dictates if Jules is healthy no way any of the s--- you write is going to happen 

 

That's what everyone thought about Wes Welker, too.  Untouchable "made guy" Patriot.  Until he wasn't.  Welker did that foot fetish press conference, then he was suspended by BB, then they got rid of Welker and Belichick wouldn't even say Welker's name after that.

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6 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

That's what everyone thought about Wes Welker, too.  Untouchable "made guy" Patriot.  Until he wasn't.  Welker did that foot fetish press conference, then he was suspended by BB, then they got rid of Welker and Belichick wouldn't even say Welker's name after that.

 

Welker refused to take the NE lowball contract extension offer in 2012 that Edelman did last year. That's the big difference. 

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

Welker refused to take the NE lowball contract extension offer in 2012 that Edelman did last year. That's the big difference. 

That's a point in Edelman's favor but it may not be enough to cancel out this four game PED suspension.  And the suspension is the most recent development.

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12 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Yeah, but they had a hard time getting effective pressure on the QB after J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus went out for the season after Week 5 (and starting DE Christian Covington followed in Week 7).  Through Week 6, the Texans had the #7 overall fantasy defense, but ended the year at #28.

 

Not sure how Watt is going to be. All these injuries are gonna catch up at some point.

 

Anyhow, don't think the Pats did enough to improve their D. I wouldn't be sitting their top offensive players regardless of matchup.

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9 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Every thread concerning anything Patriots you are there ... the energizer bunny has nothing on you

 

Common sense dictates if Jules is healthy no way any of the s--- you write is going to happen 

 

 

It is amazing how much effort some people put into hating the Pats.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

It is amazing how much effort some people put into hating the Pats.

It is really not necessary to hate the Pats, yet still believe BB is salty over Edelman's suspension and will adjust his lineup decisions accordingly.

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

It is amazing how much effort some people put into hating the Pats.

I'm guessing it takes very little effort.

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21 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I'm guessing it takes very little effort.

 

Sorry. 'waste so much time' hating them is probably nore accurate.

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19 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Sorry. 'waste so much time' hating them is probably nore accurate.

 

Tell us all again how Peyton Manning is the real cheater

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Alright, so moving on from the speculative discussion on Edelman potentially being a doghouse for this, I have two other things that worry me about his production.

 

Most guys get back to it well after ACL tears, but that doesn't change the fact that he will be, what, 20-21 months removed from actual game action by the time he's back?     Edelman is 32 now.  Jordy Nelson appeared to have hit a wall at 32 last year.    Wes Welker began to fade at that very same age.  He was still decent that year but had a lot less yards, and at 33, bam, he was all but done.    

 

Knowing that, and given a chance that another guy can step up in September, is this enough cause for concern?    While he's out, nobody's going to produce 4 games of peak Edelman stats from his prime, I'm sure, but if they can produce a good bit, and Edelman has rust and age issues, he could be relegated to a lesser role.   

 

Now  Cooks and Amendola gone sure looked to me like moves from a team who expected Edelman to be back to full health, so hopefully that's the case.   I think i'm at the point where I wouldn't draft Edelman, but i wouldn't bet against him either.    He's a guy that seemed to go 7-97-2 every time i played against him, so hoping he ends up on a team i play in September and only once.   

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25 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Alright, so moving on from the speculative discussion on Edelman potentially being a doghouse for this, I have two other things that worry me about his production.

 

Most guys get back to it well after ACL tears, but that doesn't change the fact that he will be, what, 20-21 months removed from actual game action by the time he's back?     Edelman is 32 now.  Jordy Nelson appeared to have hit a wall at 32 last year.    Wes Welker began to fade at that very same age.  He was still decent that year but had a lot less yards, and at 33, bam, he was all but done.    

 

Knowing that, and given a chance that another guy can step up in September, is this enough cause for concern?    While he's out, nobody's going to produce 4 games of peak Edelman stats from his prime, I'm sure, but if they can produce a good bit, and Edelman has rust and age issues, he could be relegated to a lesser role.   

 

Now  Cooks and Amendola gone sure looked to me like moves from a team who expected Edelman to be back to full health, so hopefully that's the case.   I think i'm at the point where I wouldn't draft Edelman, but i wouldn't bet against him either.    He's a guy that seemed to go 7-97-2 every time i played against him, so hoping he ends up on a team i play in September and only once.   

Did you watch much of Nelson? He was injured early in the season so it's hard to say if he hit a wall

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

While he's out, nobody's going to produce 4 games of peak Edelman stats from his prime

 

I'm not sure Edleman himself could produce 4 games of peak Edelman from his prime.

 

FYI Chris Hogan (2017) weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5:

5-78-1 = 18pts (PPR)

4-68-2 = 22pts

5-60-1 = 17pts

8-74-1 = 21pts

 

After taking a quick glance at historical stats: I believe those numbers are better than Edelman put up in any 4 game span in 2016. You have to go back to 2015 (only played weeks 1-9), OR all the way back to 2013 to find a 4 week span where Edelman out produced those Hogan 4 week numbers I posted.

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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8 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

I'm not sure Edleman himself could produce 4 games of peak Edelman from his prime.

 

 

I assumed if i just said "if someone steps up in his absence",  I'd have gotten stat'd by some vultures pouncing on that, thinking I meant someone playing equal to peak prime Edelman, so i added that nugget.  Sometimes you gotta think of ways to avoid the trolls.  

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Sorry. 'waste so much time' hating them is probably nore accurate.

I have to admit it brings joy to my heart every time New England loses, which is not often.  In terms of time wasted, I have to disagree.  I find that having some rudimentary understanding of the complicated inner workings of the Patriot organization is helpful when attempting to mine the roster for sneaky value.  For example, I knew Gillislee was a dead man walking after his 3 TD performance in week 1 of 2017 because he cost the team the game by failing to execute the plays in critical short yardage situations.  And I called it at the time.  Go back and check.  So I was sporting a dirt-cheap high end RB1 in Dion Lewis down the stretch because of all the time I put in.

 

The Edelman thing has a strong potential to be just like that.

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6 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I have to admit it brings joy to my heart every time New England loses, which is not often.  In terms of time wasted, I have to disagree.  I find that having some rudimentary understanding of the complicated inner workings of the Patriot organization is helpful when attempting to mine the roster for sneaky value.  For example, I knew Gillislee was a dead man walking after his 3 TD performance in week 1 of 2017 because he cost the team the game by failing to execute the plays in critical short yardage situations.  And I called it at the time.  Go back and check.  So I was sporting a dirt-cheap high end RB1 in Dion Lewis down the stretch because of all the time I put in.

 

The Edelman thing has a strong potential to be just like that.

 

Ya you don't do any of that. Just blind hate for the Pats. It's fine. But call it what it is.

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21 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

I assumed if i just said "if someone steps up in his absence",  I'd have gotten stat'd by some vultures pouncing on that, thinking I meant someone playing equal to peak prime Edelman, so i added that nugget.  Sometimes you gotta think of ways to avoid the trolls.  

 

Outside of the opening line in my post, I was attempting to show that Hogan had indeed put up a 4 week stat line similar to Edelman in his prime, and as recent as last season :shrug:

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3 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Ya you don't do any of that. Just blind hate for the Pats. It's fine. But call it what it is.

I just laid out an example about how understanding the Patriots gave me an advantage in fantasy football.  And how I had a Patriot player on my fantasy team.  That is sort of l, I don't know, the opposite of being blind.  My eyes are open.  Are yours?

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9 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

Outside of the opening line in my post, I was attempting to show that Hogan had indeed put up a 4 week stat line similar to Edelman in his prime, and as recent as last season :shrug:

 

Yeah, i getcha.    Real interested to see how this all plays out.    Some guys here are going to start the season with some plush roles, though it might be temporary.

 

It sort of reminds me of 2013- Welker had just left, Edelman was there but hadn't broken out yet, and Gronk missed the first several games.   I remember Kenbrell Thompkins and Zach Sudfeld being drafted in shallow leagues.....was kind of bizarre.  

 

 

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I really don't get this whole situation.  If he has passed "100s of tests", he surely knows the strict drug testing policy of the NFL.  How does he think he can get away with it?  Was he using early on during the injury thinking that he wasn't going to be back on the field until 2018, so he'd be fine by then, but then got selected for a random test?  I don't understand the psyche of these players and how they think they will be able to escape detection.

 

If he's there in the 8th round and I already he would be my 4th receiver, then maybe I"ll take a chance on him.  But at this point, I'll let somebody else clog up their roster for 1/3 of the regular fantasy season.

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36 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I just laid out an example about how understanding the Patriots gave me an advantage in fantasy football.  And how I had a Patriot player on my fantasy team.  That is sort of l, I don't know, the opposite of being blind.  My eyes are open.  Are yours?

 

I don't think I care enough to argue. A troll never admits to being a troll. Trolling 101.

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

Alright, so moving on from the speculative discussion on Edelman potentially being a doghouse for this, I have two other things that worry me about his production.

 

Most guys get back to it well after ACL tears, but that doesn't change the fact that he will be, what, 20-21 months removed from actual game action by the time he's back?     Edelman is 32 now.  Jordy Nelson appeared to have hit a wall at 32 last year.    Wes Welker began to fade at that very same age.  He was still decent that year but had a lot less yards, and at 33, bam, he was all but done.    

 

Knowing that, and given a chance that another guy can step up in September, is this enough cause for concern?    While he's out, nobody's going to produce 4 games of peak Edelman stats from his prime, I'm sure, but if they can produce a good bit, and Edelman has rust and age issues, he could be relegated to a lesser role.   

 

Now  Cooks and Amendola gone sure looked to me like moves from a team who expected Edelman to be back to full health, so hopefully that's the case.   I think i'm at the point where I wouldn't draft Edelman, but i wouldn't bet against him either.    He's a guy that seemed to go 7-97-2 every time i played against him, so hoping he ends up on a team i play in September and only once.   

Strictly from a football perspective this four game suspension is not that bad. Benefits, Edelman is 9 1/2 months removed from tearing his ACL . This suspension saves Julian from himself trying to make sure he is 100% ready for the opener. Now he has another month to get ready to get his knee in prime shape so he can cut the dime when he runs his routes to perfection. Also, Edelman saves himself wear and tear on his body so he can make it through the season and the playoffs. 

The patriots can keep and extra body at cutdown and in four weeks the Patriots will have a healthy, fresh receiver.

Just ask Tom Brady how much a four game suspension affected him at the start of the 2016 season

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

 

Yeah, i getcha.    Real interested to see how this all plays out.    Some guys here are going to start the season with some plush roles, though it might be temporary.

 

It sort of reminds me of 2013- Welker had just left, Edelman was there but hadn't broken out yet, and Gronk missed the first several games.   I remember Kenbrell Thompkins and Zach Sudfeld being drafted in shallow leagues.....was kind of bizarre.  

 

 

 

2013 was a fantasy wasteland for the NE offense most of that year. Edelman came out of nowhere after Amendola busted. 

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

I really don't get this whole situation.  If he has passed "100s of tests", he surely knows the strict drug testing policy of the NFL.  How does he think he can get away with it?  Was he using early on during the injury thinking that he wasn't going to be back on the field until 2018, so he'd be fine by then, but then got selected for a random test?  I don't understand the psyche of these players and how they think they will be able to escape detection.

 

If he's there in the 8th round and I already he would be my 4th receiver, then maybe I"ll take a chance on him.  But at this point, I'll let somebody else clog up their roster for 1/3 of the regular fantasy season.

 

Maybe it was a calculated risk.  Maybe the PEDs helped him recover from the injury faster and decided a 4 game suspension was worth the risk in order to get to the field faster.  Maybe without the PEDs he knew he wouldn't be ready in time anyways and said f it, I'll just take it.

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watch the documentary called “Icarus”, it’s ridiculously easy for athletes to skirt the tests

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