JohnD

Julian Edelman 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Jaw1 said:

His last healthy season in 2016 he put up decent numbers with 98 catches, 1106 yards...

 

Those numbers are spectacular. I think those drafting him in a suspension shortened season are hoping for "decent numbers."

 

65 catches, 750 yards, 4 TD's. 

 

In PPR, he's a solid WR3 with WR2 upside. Pats defense still sucks so Brady & his boys will need to put up some points all year long.

 

Edited by cousinal111
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, cousinal111 said:

 

Those numbers are spectacular. I think those drafting him in a suspension shortened season are hoping for "decent numbers."

 

65 catches, 750 yards, 4 TD's. 

 

In PPR, he's a solid WR3 with WR2 upside. Pats defense still sucks so Brady & his boys will need to put up some points all year long.

 

I mean it was probably his best season of his career but my point is that even with Gronk missing time, 159 targets and his top competition Michael Floyd and Martellus Bennett he was only WR15. 2 years removed at 32, coming off an ACL and as a guy that depends on his quickness I think that is easily his ceiling. 65 catches, 750 yards and 4 TDs isn't far off that pace and I think is possible but shouldn't be expected. I agree that he is a WR3 with WR2 upside, I don't think he is a surefire WR2 and that he is missing 4 games has to be factored in. That also is a minimum of 4 games since he has had a fair share of injuries with the way he fearlessly goes across the middle. He has had a few concussions, 2 surgeries on his left foot including a jones fracture and screws being put in it and of course the ACL tear in preseason last year that cost him the entire season.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Edelman is toast. I don't doubt he'll have some occasions where he's alright but coming back from a devastating injury at age 32 and after a full month into the season, it just doesn't feel like a horse I'd bet on. I was happy to move him for a pick in Dynasty.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Spyplane said:

Edelman is toast. I don't doubt he'll have some occasions where he's alright but coming back from a devastating injury at age 32 and after a full month into the season, it just doesn't feel like a horse I'd bet on. I was happy to move him for a pick in Dynasty.

He looked to be himself in that first preseason game. Was cutting and moving just as he had been in the past. But, if Your prediction comes true, someone in that offense is going to benefit from it and will likely become a great value. Curious to who you believe that would be?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Rammer28 said:

He looked to be himself in that first preseason game. Was cutting and moving just as he had been in the past. But, if Your prediction comes true, someone in that offense is going to benefit from it and will likely become a great value. Curious to who you believe that would be?

 

Edelman says he doesn't have his burst and is having trouble getting back into game shape.  He's frustrated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Rammer28 said:

He looked to be himself in that first preseason game. Was cutting and moving just as he had been in the past. But, if Your prediction comes true, someone in that offense is going to benefit from it and will likely become a great value. Curious to who you believe that would be?

 

If Edelman falls off a cliff I would think Hogan will benefit the most

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, owenmills said:

 

If Edelman falls off a cliff I would think Hogan will benefit the most

Outside of hogan and Gronkowski. Cooks and amendola left behind a lot of targets from last season. Someone is going to get those. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Rammer28 said:

Outside of hogan and Gronkowski. Cooks and amendola left behind a lot of targets from last season. Someone is going to get those. 

 

Yeah, I just don't know if any of the remaining guys are that good. Patterson, Britt, Decker, Dorsett. The remaining targets could be so spread out none of them are worth anything in fantasy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm targeting Edelman in all my leagues this year. The return on investment he provides when he returns outweighs the loss of the first 4 games because I'm confident that my teams can make it to the playoffs without him playing in those games. Plus I'm not worried about him being rusty or needing to get him timing down with brady because of the chemistry the two have had for years. He's going to come back and be the main target and chain mover for this offense. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love this guy, but I'm not willing to play round 6 prices for 2/3 of the fantasy regular season, especially when high upside guys like Corey Davis and Marquise Goodwin are going around his ADP.   I suppose that's the discount though.  Edelman would typically be a round 3 type player without the suspension?  I suppose you could go a combination of 2RBs and 3WRs in the first five rounds and pick up Edelman as your WR4, but things would have to fall into place in order to have a good draft and not put yourself behind before the season even starts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CooL said:

I love this guy, but I'm not willing to play round 6 prices for 2/3 of the fantasy regular season, especially when high upside guys like Corey Davis and Marquise Goodwin are going around his ADP.   I suppose that's the discount though.  Edelman would typically be a round 3 type player without the suspension?  I suppose you could go a combination of 2RBs and 3WRs in the first five rounds and pick up Edelman as your WR4, but things would have to fall into place in order to have a good draft and not put yourself behind before the season even starts.

 

There is definitely a very strong counter argument to your first sentence.  You sort of backpeddled and I like it because Edelman is a huge fantasy asset, WR1 in most cases, when he is on the field.  Corey Davis could very well pitter patter around for a few more years while Mariota figures out whether or not he is a #2 overall drafted QB or not.  Marquise Goodwin - very solid, imo, but when you are weighing risk....Edelman coming back at Week 4 from injury is a dream pick at the 6th round.  Think about it - guy just got back from knee surgery - do you even want him to rush back?  would he even be fully ready at week 1?  If he did start at Week 1, would he regress all season versus starting with another month of rehab under his belt?

 

I have little concerns at this point.  Edelman will grind out a way. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

There is definitely a very strong counter argument to your first sentence.  You sort of backpeddled and I like it because Edelman is a huge fantasy asset, WR1 in most cases, when he is on the field.  Corey Davis could very well pitter patter around for a few more years while Mariota figures out whether or not he is a #2 overall drafted QB or not.  Marquise Goodwin - very solid, imo, but when you are weighing risk....Edelman coming back at Week 4 from injury is a dream pick at the 6th round.  Think about it - guy just got back from knee surgery - do you even want him to rush back?  would he even be fully ready at week 1?  If he did start at Week 1, would he regress all season versus starting with another month of rehab under his belt?

 

I have little concerns at this point.  Edelman will grind out a way. 

Agreed.  Many have pegged a presumably healthy Corey Davis to have a breakout year.  Reports from training camp have been positive, except for I think the one day or two where he may or may not have been injured/rested.  Goodwin is a safe bet to perform given the anticipated volume and general excitement of the SF offense.

 

I certainly would want Edelman on my team.  I surely have been on the receiving end of a ridiculous 10-85-1 PPR stat line before, so I want him on my team.  But if I could have Davis or Goodwin for an entire fantasy season, barring injury of course, instead?  It will be a tough decision.  It all depends on how the first five rounds go.  I wouldn't feel comfortable going into the season with Edelman as my WR2 or WR3, because then I'm relying on lesser guys to prop up my team for those first four weeks.  It's easy to collect a bunch of upside WRs, but then you have to also start those WRs on the weeks they go off.  If I have 3 solid WRs, then I'd consider him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Rammer28 said:

He looked to be himself in that first preseason game. Was cutting and moving just as he had been in the past. But, if Your prediction comes true, someone in that offense is going to benefit from it and will likely become a great value. Curious to who you believe that would be?

I don't agree and to answer your question, don't know who steps up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Rammer28 said:

Outside of hogan and Gronkowski. Cooks and amendola left behind a lot of targets from last season. Someone is going to get those. 

 

Gronk and Rex.

 

Edelman will be fine tho

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

There is definitely a very strong counter argument to your first sentence.  You sort of backpeddled and I like it because Edelman is a huge fantasy asset, WR1 in most cases, when he is on the field.  Corey Davis could very well pitter patter around for a few more years while Mariota figures out whether or not he is a #2 overall drafted QB or not.  Marquise Goodwin - very solid, imo, but when you are weighing risk....Edelman coming back at Week 4 from injury is a dream pick at the 6th round.  Think about it - guy just got back from knee surgery - do you even want him to rush back?  would he even be fully ready at week 1?  If he did start at Week 1, would he regress all season versus starting with another month of rehab under his belt?

 

I have little concerns at this point.  Edelman will grind out a way. 

 

32 year old recovering from knee surgery who needed banned drugs to get back onto the field.  That's why he has the suspension.

How did AP do when he tried his last comeback?  Kinda sucked last year.  Now he's trying again.

 

Leave the expired products on the shelf or throw them in the trash.

 

Take Goodwin.  Pair him with Godwin.  Godwin is the kid opposite Mike Evans you've never heard of.  Try to keep up.  That's how you win money.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

32 year old recovering from knee surgery who needed banned drugs to get back onto the field.  That's why he has the suspension.

How did AP do when he tried his last comeback?  Kinda sucked last year.  Now he's trying again.

 

Leave the expired products on the shelf or throw them in the trash.

 

Take Goodwin.  Pair him with Godwin.  Godwin is the kid opposite Mike Evans you've never heard of.  Try to keep up.  That's how you win money.

 

Welcome to 2018 bro where we have ridiculously sophisticated technology.  Where you are allowed you to spout verbal diarrhea on online forums, but, also where all types of athletes are coming back from surgery just as strong as when they went down.  Play the "32 year old who needs PEDs to recover" game - you have about a 50/50 shot at being right, just like me. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What rounds are you guys getting him in?  Feels like I'm overdrafting him and could wait a few more rounds

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got him 7th Round (64 overall) in full PPR, but as my 4th WR. Probably too early but it's 10 team with 3 WR, 2 Flex and I plan on starting him all year once suspension is done.

 

Edited by cousinal111
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, cousinal111 said:

I got him 7th Round (64 overall) in full PPR, but as my 4th WR. Probably too early but it's 10 team with 3 WR, 2 Flex and I plan on starting him all year once suspension is done.

 

 

Same here grabbed him at my 6th pick in 12-man PPR either double flex as my 4th WR. Got Hogan at 4th so I bought in regardless of what happens but I still expect a safe floor from both.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brady can support 3-4 fantasy staters easily. Last year alone Gronk and Cooks both got 1000+ rec yards and 7+ TDs, while Amendola, Hogan and Allen combined for another 1000+ and 7+ TDs. The other 1500 yards and 5 TDs Brady had went to RBs and short term WR/TEs. (My lord Brady is amassing)

 

With Amendola and Cooks gone, Hogan could easily reproduce Cooks stats (albeit in a different fashion) leaving 800-1000 yards and 8 TDs for Edelman. Not saying that’s the exact stat split for Gronk/Hogan/Edelman but again, Brady has proven time and again that he can easily support 3 fantasy starters at the same time. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...