thebrowns

2018 Rookie QB Class

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This post is intended for the scope of Dynasty. Superflex and 2QB owners will have the most interest here. 

 

1) This class isn't particularly strong or weak. 

2) Ranking for fantasy is a little different from NFL rankings.

3) Fit matters regardless of position

4) Next week the combine begins; there is going to be a lot of movement. This is not an expert/definitive list.

5) I want this to be an open conversation.

 

#1 - Baker Mayfield

#2 - Sam Darnold

#3 - Lamar Jackson

#4 - Josh Rosen

#5 - Josh Allen

#6/7 - Luke Falk/Mason Rudolph

#8/9 - Kyle Lauletta/Mike White

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Rosen

Darnold

Jackson 

Mayfield

Allen

 

Haven't started looking at the rest yet. 

 

If he goes to the right place for fantasy I may move Jackson to 1.

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5 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

Rosen

Darnold

Jackson 

Mayfield

Allen

 

Haven't started looking at the rest yet. 

 

If he goes to the right place for fantasy I may move Jackson to 1.

 

For NFL I like your list. 

 

Truly there are only for guys i take seriously for fantasy. Fit matters a lot for fantasy. 

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4 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

If he goes to the right place for fantasy I may move Jackson to 1.

 

Jackson #1? Wow thats bold. For fantasy purposes i could see it. He has talent no doubt about it. I still worry if hes forced to play with his arm only he will have some trouble. He beat up on weak teams but definatley had his struggles against some of the powerhouses. Almost 100 yards rushing a game is pretty insane. To me, hes one of- if not the most- polarizing player in this draft.

 

Tbh the hype this qb class recieved a year ago had me thinking we were getting some cant miss prospects, but after this year i have my worries about all of them.

 

1a/b is Darnold and rosen. Slight edge to darnold on upside, plus rosens shoulder and injury history has my ears perked a bit. Darnold has had some wild inconsistencies and boneheaded decisions but when hes on, hes good. Touch, quick enough release, arm strength. But im overall down on them both considering how i felt a year ago.

 

After that i think its what your looking for. Allen is a project that should almost recieve an aaron rodgers type treatment. Would be great behind a flacco or a big ben or a phillip rivers where he could saturate for a bit. Jackson is that dynamic athlete that you may have to change your offense around initially.  Mayfield might actually be ready to hit the field earlier then the rest, but i think he lacks the upside of some of these other players. Moderate arm strength, moderate velocity, sometimes too much touch sometimes not enough.  Could go either way on these 3.

 

Lauletta and mike really showed up at senior bowl, definatley perked my interest. I havent gone too deep on qbs yet so i dont have much of a feel for the rest.

 

 

Edited by vikingapocalypse

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1 hour ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

Jackson #1? Wow thats bold. For fantasy purposes i could see it. He has talent no doubt about it. I still worry if hes forced to play with his arm only he will have some trouble. He beat up on weak teams but definatley had his struggles against some of the powerhouses. Almost 100 yards rushing a game is pretty insane. To me, hes one of- if not the most- polarizing player in this draft.

 

Tbh the hype this qb class recieved a year ago had me thinking we were getting some cant miss prospects, but after this year i have my worries about all of them.

 

1a/b is Darnold and rosen. Slight edge to darnold on upside, plus rosens shoulder and injury history has my ears perked a bit. Darnold has had some wild inconsistencies and boneheaded decisions but when hes on, hes good. Touch, quick enough release, arm strength. But im overall down on them both considering how i felt a year ago.

 

After that i think its what your looking for. Allen is a project that should almost recieve an aaron rodgers type treatment. Would be great behind a flacco or a big ben or a phillip rivers where he could saturate for a bit. Jackson is that dynamic athlete that you may have to change your offense around initially.  Mayfield might actually be ready to hit the field earlier then the rest, but i think he lacks the upside of some of these other players. Moderate arm strength, moderate velocity, sometimes too much touch sometimes not enough.  Could go either way on these 3.

 

Lauletta and mike really showed up at senior bowl, definatley perked my interest. I havent gone too deep on qbs yet so i dont have much of a feel for the rest.

 

 

 

Yes,  that Jackson potentially at 1 for DYNASTY fantasy is very much dependent on the quality of the coaching staff that drafts him.   I think he needs a full year on the bench to work on some mechanical issues.  But he played in a true pro style offense and showed a basic feel for going through true progressions.  Wasn't propped up by rpo stuff at all.  For fantasy you can bake in 6 to 7 rushing points per week... That's big. 

 

I'm big fan of Rosen and Darnold as well.   

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Thought allen won the day at the combine. Quick release, decent footing, an obvious cannon for an arm - the reasons teams are falling in love with him were on full display. It doesnt take away all the negatives, but its a positive step forward after not so friendly reviews during senior bowl practice.

 

Rosen looked fine. Did what was expected, i thought. Can make all the throws, good anticipation, effortless touch. Miss a few here and there but overall solid. Thought Mayfields day kinda looked like this as well. Solid all around, tho i was expecting a better 40.

 

Really wanted to see lamar. He has nice quick release, definatley flaunts that wrist flick- effortless arm strength that vick had, but does not throw a tight spiral. It actually causes the ball to get away from him at times, threw about 4 wounded ducks and was a little erratic otherwise. He did have a few really nice throws, struggled going outside the numbers but did well with the post route.

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I'm surprised everyone is so low on Allen, I liked what I saw in Mountain West play the previous year and Wyoming just isn't a good enough team to compare him in games against powerhouse conferences. It's too bad Wyoming can't attract talent for him to have played with in his final year. 

 

I'd like to see a team treat him like Philadelphia was going to treat Wentz, draft him to sit a year but if he shows her capable of starting roll with him.

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11 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

My top 6 QBs didn't change one bit and I liked seeing Rudolph be faster than I expected. 

 

1) Rosen

2) Darnold

3) Rudolph 

4) Mayfield 

5) Jackson 

6) Allen

Rudolph showing serious brain in his session with Mooch.

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4 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

I'm surprised everyone is so low on Allen, I liked what I saw in Mountain West play the previous year and Wyoming just isn't a good enough team to compare him in games against powerhouse conferences. It's too bad Wyoming can't attract talent for him to have played with in his final year. 

 

I'd like to see a team treat him like Philadelphia was going to treat Wentz, draft him to sit a year but if he shows her capable of starting roll with him.

 

If you can't complete passes successfully today you probably won't complete them in a year on the bench. 

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3 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

If you can't complete passes successfully today you probably won't complete them in a year on the bench. 

 

Especially when he's probably going to be dealing with tighter windows and more complicated coverages.

I'm always wary of QBs who cant complete passes in college and expect to improve dramatically when it's going to be even harder at the pro level.

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2 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:

 

Especially when he's probably going to be dealing with tighter windows and more complicated coverages.

I'm always wary of QBs who cant complete passes in college and expect to improve dramatically when it's going to be even harder at the pro level.

 

100% agree. 

 

I like to see QBs who can make down field throws look easy and high percentage throws like they are 2nd nature. 

 

If you can't do either. You're dead to me. If I'm a QB needy team and I miss on every FA QB and the other 5 I have ahead of him I would take Allen, but I wouldn't like it. 

 

Give me a gamer every day over a workout warrior or a choreography queen. 

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4 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

I'm surprised everyone is so low on Allen, I liked what I saw in Mountain West play the previous year and Wyoming just isn't a good enough team to compare him in games against powerhouse conferences. It's too bad Wyoming can't attract talent for him to have played with in his final year. 

 

I'd like to see a team treat him like Philadelphia was going to treat Wentz, draft him to sit a year but if he shows her capable of starting roll with him.

You can't teach accuracy.  He's clearly the least accurate of all the projected 1st rounders.

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Can’t teach accuracy?  That’s a new one.

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Speaking strictly about fantasy, since we are on a FF forum, Lamar Jackson is #1 and it isn't even close. His rushing ability makes him the front-runner clearly. But I wouldn't bet on him last that long at QB in the league.

 

For dynasty long-term projection:

1. Josh Allen

2. Mayfield

3. Darnold

4. Rudolph

5. Josh Rosen

 

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10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Can’t teach accuracy?  That’s a new one.

 

Found this interesting tidbit:

 

From 2002-2014, there were 31 quarterbacks that had a completion percentage of 58.5% or worse, but ended up getting drafted. Of those 31 quarterbacks, only one of them (David Garrard) ended up becoming a decent starter. Some, like Seneca Wallace, Matt Flynn, Chad Henne, and even Jim Sorgi to an extent, became quality backups. 

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8 hours ago, RustyMiller said:

From 2002-2014, there were 31 quarterbacks that had a completion percentage of 58.5% or worse, but ended up getting drafted. Of those 31 quarterbacks, only one of them (David Garrard) ended up becoming a decent starter. Some, like Seneca Wallace, Matt Flynn, Chad Henne, and even Jim Sorgi to an extent, became quality backups.

 

I got some Browns fans friends who needed to hear this.  Thanks for the good info.

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10 hours ago, RustyMiller said:

 

Found this interesting tidbit:

 

From 2002-2014, there were 31 quarterbacks that had a completion percentage of 58.5% or worse, but ended up getting drafted. Of those 31 quarterbacks, only one of them (David Garrard) ended up becoming a decent starter. Some, like Seneca Wallace, Matt Flynn, Chad Henne, and even Jim Sorgi to an extent, became quality backups. 

 

I never bet on the outlier and I have Allen as the 4-7th QB in this draft depending what I feel about potential any given moment. I'm assuming you're utilizing the final season for you 58.5% completion percentage. Matthew Stafford was 57.1% career average coming out of Georgia. Look at Stafford's NFL career he went from the 50s his first few years in the NFL to the mid-60s the last few. 

 

Career           564 987 57.1 7731 7.8 7.4 51 33 133.3
2006 Georgia SEC FR QB 13 135 256 52.7% 1749yds 6.8 5.1 7tds 13int 109.0
2007 Georgia SEC SO QB 13 194 348 55.7% 2523yds 7.3 7.0 19tds 10int 128.9
2008 Georgia SEC JR QB 13 235 383 61.4% 3459yds 9.0 9.2 25tds 10int 153.5

 

image.png.3f6ecffa989be67bd7f8a4cd6af16af2.png

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After a less than stellar combine it seems like Lamar Jackson is in a great position to slip into the second round. Which means that almost every team will have 1-2 shots to draft him. I was thinking of the best fits for him and decided that it would be interesting for us to comment on where we think the best fits for all of these players might be; ignoring the reality that few if any will make it to the ideal fit. All of these guys appear to be in position to benefit from sitting for a year, IMO. I thought I'd start with listing aging veterans.

 

(2018 age)

NE - Tom Brady (41)

NO - Drew Brees (39)

NYG - Eli Manning (37)

LAC - Phillip Rivers (36/37) [born in december]

PIT - Big Ben (36)

GB - Aaron Rogers (34/35) [born in december]

WAS - Alex Smith (34)

BAL - Joe Flacco (33)

ATL - Matt Ryan (33)

 

I'm not sure where to start; except that I think Jackson and Allen would be good fits for PIT, LAC, and NE (Josh McDaniels factor).

 

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3 hours ago, thebrowns said:

 

I never bet on the outlier and I have Allen as the 4-7th QB in this draft depending what I feel about potential any given moment. I'm assuming you're utilizing the final season for you 58.5% completion percentage. Matthew Stafford was 57.1% career average coming out of Georgia. Look at Stafford's NFL career he went from the 50s his first few years in the NFL to the mid-60s the last few. 

 

 

It was based on the final year.  Which makes the most sense anyways.  Some names that weren't part of that list were Locker and Kizer.  Which fall in line with this guys analysis.

 

Here's a link to it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/65zs0w/oc_why_585_is_the_magic_number_for_qbs_in_the_nfl/

 

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On 3/4/2018 at 7:48 AM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

My top 6 QBs didn't change one bit and I liked seeing Rudolph be faster than I expected. 

 

1) Rosen  -  Johnny Manziel Jr.

2) Darnold   -  Ryan Leaf Jr.

3) Rudolph - Developmental 2nd day pick

4) Mayfield  - Most NFL Ready; lacks size; needs polish

5) Jackson  -  Michael Vick Jr

6) Allen  -  Brock Osweiler Jr.

 

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6 hours ago, thebrowns said:

 

I never bet on the outlier and I have Allen as the 4-7th QB in this draft depending what I feel about potential any given moment. I'm assuming you're utilizing the final season for you 58.5% completion percentage. Matthew Stafford was 57.1% career average coming out of Georgia. Look at Stafford's NFL career he went from the 50s his first few years in the NFL to the mid-60s the last few. 

 

Career           564 987 57.1 7731 7.8 7.4 51 33 133.3
2006 Georgia SEC FR QB 13 135 256 52.7% 1749yds 6.8 5.1 7tds 13int 109.0
2007 Georgia SEC SO QB 13 194 348 55.7% 2523yds 7.3 7.0 19tds 10int 128.9
2008 Georgia SEC JR QB 13 235 383 61.4% 3459yds 9.0 9.2 25tds 10int 153.5

 

image.png.3f6ecffa989be67bd7f8a4cd6af16af2.png

 

 

Are we seriously comparing starting QB 57% completion percentage between the Mountain West Conference and the SEC????

 

Matt Stafford was playing against teams like LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, etc.

Allen's biggest competition was the movie "Old School" starring Will Ferrel.

 

Common man!!

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2 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

 

Are we seriously comparing starting QB 57% completion percentage between the Mountain West Conference and the SEC????

 

Matt Stafford was playing against teams like LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, etc.

Allen's biggest competition was the movie "Old School" starring Will Ferrel.

 

Common man!!

Are there any current NFL starters that played with Wyoming? The best receiver he had was Tanner Gentry and had his best season. He was on a team absolutely bereft of talent.

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