CurvePirate814

Tyler Glasnow 2018 Outlook

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Last year, struggled with control tremendously. We all know he has 'the stuff', but will he nail down his control?

 

Today, 1st start of Spring: Gave up a HR and hit someone. 

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Just now, StarlinCastro said:

I think the only way he salvages a MLB career at this point is through the bullpen.

 

Sadly I am starting to think this as well.  He can be pretty lethal if he can get it under control in the bullpen though.

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It's all mental for him.  You can't be that dominant in AAA and then so wild in the show.  I wish I didn't own him because you can't cut bait on him yet just in case he puts it together as he'd be something special.  Better to hold on a year too long than cut bait that year too early. 

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I have never seen a guy flat out dominate triple A back to back years like he has. It's even crazy to think despite control issues @AAA he had a 2.2 ERA in 2015 and he's still not a starter in the bigs heading into 2018!

Edited by Ry34No

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everyone is giving up wayyy too quickly.  his upsideas a pitcher is not unlike Moncada's as a hitter.

I love Glasnow as a buy in dynasty. 

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7 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

everyone is giving up wayyy too quickly.  his upsideas a pitcher is not unlike Moncada's as a hitter.

I love Glasnow as a buy in dynasty. 

 

I was thinking the same. Glasnow just has far far too much talent to jump ship this early. He's only 24! It's not unfathomable that he's yet to really nail down MLB pitching, but the park is helpful, the stuff is nasty, and the coaching is excellent. Yes, you have to rummage through some garbage, but there's a gem here. 

 

I've contemplated a dynasty buy low for a bit now. Yes, the control issues are frightening... but this guy has back to back AAA seasons with a 1.93 ERA, and K/9s of 10.8 and 13.5.

 

It seems silly to bury the guy after not meeting expectations in his first full season. 

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10 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

It's all mental for him.  You can't be that dominant in AAA and then so wild in the show. ...

 

And yet baseball down the years is strewn with failed pitchers just like this.  Hope he gets his control in order but there is no guarantee he does either.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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I am flummoxed by this guy. He isn’t just another good minor league pitcher who struggled adjusting to the majors.  His minor league numbers were utterly, completely, and draw droppingly dominate at every level and pointed to one of the rare few who have true front of the rotation potential.

 

He issued a lot of walks in the minors but buried it with dominance and emerged with a strong WHIP.  I guess he is finding strikeouts harder to come by in the majors and then everything else just unravels from there.  If he isn’t missing bats he is in trouble.

 

He said he did better when he was allowed to go back to pitching out of the stretch but he still got hit hard when he was recalled again, so I just don’t know what to think anymore. 

Edited by Weekday Warrior

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A few thoughts on Glasnow -he is such a curious case

  • back to back 30% K rate seasons in AAA - 30.4% in 2016 AAA and then 38.5% across 93 IP last year in AAA.  those are some pretty insane K rates and across a decent sample size too - just about 200 IP last 2 years in AAA.
  • Just as a comp I checked Thor's K rate across AAA 24.9% in 2014 (133IP) and 30.1% in 2015 (29 IP). So Glasnow's  K rate in the minors is pretty eye-popping.
  • His BB% rate in AAA dropped from 14.2 % in 2016 to 8.8% 2017 so thats good
  • but then his stop in the bigs last year was an unmitigated disaster the walk rate at 14.4% across 62 innings and the K rate only at 18%.
  • Looking a little further at his MLB numbers last year his swinging strike % was pretty poor last year at 8.3% the Z-contact was at 90% the o-swing at 25%
  • Basically what we are seeing was that he wasn't getting swings and misses and was not getting guys to chase- again this probably all stems from constantly being behind in the count though I do think its perplexing that guy with such a crazy K rate in the minors wasn't generating more swings and misses- he was well below avg last year
  • I admittedly haven't watched him so disclaimer here- but If I had to guess maybe its a mechanical thing- this is something you can see in big pitchers (he's 6'8") from time to time if their mechanics go awry things can get ugly fast. Reminds me of Betances last year in the playoffs - he couldn't throw a strike to save his life- I've noticed with Glasnow too that he cannot hold runners on either - so perhaps he has issues pitching from the stretch too
  • Speaking of Betances he was at one point a big SP prospect who struggled with BB% rates in AAA and transitioned into an RP so maybe that is Glasnow's fate too
  • Maybe his future is more of a reliever at this point - but I don't think you can just flat out give up on this guy- yet at least. You have to figure he'll get a crack at the rotation though Musgrove seems to be the favorite as of now. But as it stands I still think this guy is worth a shot super late for sure- for where he is adp wise there is basically no risk. I'll be really interested in following Musgrove and Glasnow in spring training.  
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14 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

everyone is giving up wayyy too quickly.  his upsideas a pitcher is not unlike Moncada's as a hitter.

I love Glasnow as a buy in dynasty. 

 

I don't think a lot of people are jumping ship, at least folks/skeptics on here aren't trying to give up on him.  I think we are just trying to say his control issues could eventually lead to him being used out of the bullpen rather then a SP.  

 

 

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I use Max Scherzer as a comparison as someone who dominated AA and AAA and struggled in the majors for many years. He didn't have the meltdowns that Glasnow has had but he didn't turn into an ace until 2012. Granted, Glasnow has shown to have less control but in terms of K potential and development they are comparable. 

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i'm gonna hold him in my dynasty, mostly from a pride standpoint as I can't stand the thought of him blowing up on someone else's team. But I gotta see a reason to hope this year or I will drop him at some point.

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10 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

And yet baseball down the years is strewn with failed pitchers just like this.  Hope he gets his control in order but there is no guarantee he does either.

No guarantee with anything.

Just crazy that people are quick to throw in the towel.

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Tyler Glas-now.

 

Maybe he's more of a "later" than a "now"

 

Tyler Glas-later.

 

 

581c168930c3c4f733e70660d93bdc10--candy-

 

 

Sorry, I'll see myself out...

 

im-out-gif-7.gif

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Another interesting comp.: Randy Johnson.

 

Both had/have electric stuff. Randy struggled with control issues early on. Both very tall. Randy really didn't 'break out' until 28-29ish. 

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24 minutes ago, CurvePirate814 said:

Another interesting comp.: Randy Johnson.

 

Both had/have electric stuff. Randy struggled with control issues early on. Both very tall. Randy really didn't 'break out' until 28-29ish. 

 

I definitely get it, but that would have to be Tyler's ceiling obviously.  I guess you could say Randy broke out that late in his career but he still had some solid seasons before then.  You would have to think Tyler will need to show some type of promise this season in order to keep getting the opportunity as a starter.

 

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10 hours ago, Zig Zag said:

 

I definitely get it, but that would have to be Tyler's ceiling obviously.  I guess you could say Randy broke out that late in his career but he still had some solid seasons before then.  You would have to think Tyler will need to show some type of promise this season in order to keep getting the opportunity as a starter.

 

Yea, my post was in now way saying that Glasnow will be Randy Johnson. As a Pirates fan, I REALLY want Glasnow to break out, but I would say it's 60/40, the 60 being a career bullpen guy (which, hey, that's great, but not why we drafted him). He's struggled with the same stuff since high school. 

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http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2018/03/02/Pirates-spring-training-tyler-glasnow-adam-frazier-colin-moran-adam-jones/stories/201803020199

2 days ago- 3 IP 6Ks and most importantly no walks! Good to see - its funny tho I was searching for glasnow's thread and came across his from last year and someone  posted almost the exact same thing I wrote - so always take ST with a sack of salt of course. Anyways still good to see some positive results

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