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BrianM

Buffalo Bills 2018 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

i'm gonna assume last year is his absolute floor, as pretty much every card that could be stacked against him was ...  on pace for 55 receptions / 800 yards

 

For his price, that's an excellent floor for a guy that, when healthy, averages 1000/8 and is on a team that'll be playing from behind quite often with little/no other help in the passing game. 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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23 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

Lots of overreaction around here... all they need to do is sign Dez Bryant, Demarco Murray and Tony Romo to 1-year deals. 

BOOM. Playoffs. 

 

 

LOL, and maybe they can trade for 3 or 4 of Dallas's linemen.   

 

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4 hours ago, BrianM said:

So i debated this yesterday with a couple guys after thinking a little more on Benjamin's value.   I'm now firmly DND.   Here's why.

 

Next to the "but he's a starter" defense for an ugly looking draft pick is the "they have to throw to somebody" defense.   I've fallen victim to both, i'm sure we all have, but I remembered this argument for Torrey Smith in 2016, as what appeared to be the only option in the 49ers stank offense (the year Gabbert started 4 or 5 games).    

 

The results:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2016.htm

 

Perhaps unironically, two of the WR's on that team currently are on Buffalo's roster (Kerley and Streater).    Kerley seems like the frontrunner for slot duties, and Streater I guess was going to make last year's team if he didnt get hurt.

 

At this point, Buffalo has to hope there's a good list of first round QB's, so they can trade down and get 2 or 3 extra early picks.   They will have a ton of cap space after this year too, but jesus, they'll need nearly an entire offense.   Multiple WR's, multiple RB's, probably every OL position except for LT (Dawkins should be fine) and I expect Clay to be in his final season as a Bill as well.  

 

 

 

Benajmin and Torrey are nothing alike as players.

 

Silly argument.

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Fitzgerald/Funchess 2017 production is where I think he’ll fall this year 

 

(big bodied guys with not much else worth throwing to on the team) 

 

I AM WELL AWARE HE IS NOT AS GOOD AS FITZGERALD

 

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I wasn't watching all that closely, but I just skimmer through some articles and clips, and dang Zay Jones, way to kckoff yout NFL career!

 

Nonetheless, I'd still draft him before I took KB.

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20 minutes ago, The Answer said:

Could Zay be a decent ppr guy on this team?  

Absolutely not.  Don't forget, 3 months ago he was kicking through glass windows with his bare feet and slicing them to ribbons.  He's the next Titus Young.  Buffalo has not yet been willing to admit that they wasted a high draft pick on Zay, but there is no chance he is mentally strong enough for the rigors of playing WR in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, The Answer said:

Could Zay be a decent ppr guy on this team?  

If drops scored as a reception, maybe.

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Hold on now... Zay Jones was an absolute beast at ECU. No one could cover him in the slot, and he has the size to break tackles and speed to burn. I actually think he’s a great safety valve for an inexperienced QB. 

 

With an offense desperate for playmakers, I can definitely see a lot of quick hitters to Zay to move the chains (even if they are down by 30 at halftime which everyone seems to think)

 

Sure he had a rough rookie season and a fairly dramatic offseason, but the dude still has talent a nice opportunity in front of him. I suspect he’ll be a hot waiver wire pickup sooner than later in standard leagues.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, AirForceOne said:

Hold on now... Zay Jones was an absolute beast at ECU. No one could cover him in the slot, and he has the size to break tackles and speed to burn. I actually think he’s a great safety valve for an inexperienced QB. 

 

With an offense desperate for playmakers, I can definitely see a lot of quick hitters to Zay to move the chains (even if they are down by 30 at halftime which everyone seems to think)

 

Sure he had a rough rookie season and a fairly dramatic offseason, but the dude still has talent a nice opportunity in front of him. I suspect he’ll be a hot waiver wire pickup sooner than later in standard leagues.

 

Everyone in the nfl was a “beast” in college 

 

http://m.tmz.com/?viewer_country=US#!article/2018/03/20/zay-jones-arrested-nude-smashed-window-vandalism-buffalo-bills-player/

 

“fairly dramatic”? (The shoulder and knee surgeries hopefully helped)

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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42 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Everyone in the nfl was a “beast” in college 

 

True, but not everyone sets the NCAA record for receptions in a season. 

Just saying... despite the offseason issues and ugly rookie season, he's still got a path and opportunity to fantasy relevancy this year.

It's too early to write him off and label him a bust just yet. 

 

Last year the Bills ranked 31st in passing attempts. In 2015 they were 28th, in 2016 they were 30th. 

So... What do each of these seasons have in common? Tyrod Taylor. 

 

With a new QB (and possibly without McCoy), it's pretty likely they will rank up around 15th or so. 

That means at least one WR will be fantasy relevant.

Benjamin is likely to get a lot of red zone looks, but Zay can earn quite a few targets as well. 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

 

True, but not everyone sets the NCAA record for receptions in a season. 

Just saying... despite the offseason issues and ugly rookie season, he's still got a path and opportunity to fantasy relevancy this year.

It's too early to write him off and label him a bust just yet. 

 

Last year the Bills ranked 31st in passing attempts. In 2015 they were 28th, in 2016 they were 30th. 

So... What do each of these seasons have in common? Tyrod Taylor. 

 

With a new QB (and possibly without McCoy), it's pretty likely they will rank up around 15th or so. 

That means at least one WR will be fantasy relevant.

Benjamin is likely to get a lot of red zone looks, but Zay can earn quite a few targets as well. 

 

 

 

 

Not sure what the Bills were thinking last season doing that trade but benjamin is really not that good of a wr.  He's a big body with very little skill and athleticism so unless you have a QB who can has pinpoint accuracy, kelvin is not going to make plays on his own. He was one of those projects coming out of college, had a great season due to Cam's ability to be a playmaker feeding him volume and TD's. 

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I strongly disagree with you... just look at the number of highlights he's posted over the last few years. 6'5" and knows how to use his body and size to get position. Has a nasty stiff-arm to get extra yards. Fast enough to get downfield and makes tough catches in tight coverage. Only reason Carolina traded him was because Funchess is a similar player, and they didn't want to pay Benjamin once his rookie contract expired. Had nothing to do with Benjamin's ability. 

 

Coming off an ACL tear and a mid-season trade to one of the lowest rated passing teams in the league, he didn't have much to show in 2017.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

I strongly disagree with you... just look at the number of highlights he's posted over the last few years. 6'5" and knows how to use his body and size to get position. Has a nasty stiff-arm to get extra yards. Fast enough to get downfield and makes tough catches in tight coverage. Only reason Carolina traded him was because Funchess is a similar player, and they didn't want to pay Benjamin once his rookie contract expired. Had nothing to do with Benjamin's ability. 

 

Coming off an ACL tear and a mid-season trade to one of the lowest rated passing teams in the league, he didn't have much to show in 2017.

 

And his per game production was still on pace for 800 yards ... not bad at all when you factor in literally everything was stacked against him last year 

 

No reason he can’t get back to 1000/8 this year. I like him even more without McCoy, more garbage time / 1 less actual option to give targets

 

I have a hard time buying a Zay Jones development. Something about nearly jumping out of a window naked in the name of Jesus has me skeptical 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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Posted (edited)

After reading through the information regarding the allegations against McCoy I think he will be safely available for the Bills next season. Question is... will the QB situation set him back? Could end up being a value pick if his ADP drops due to the allegations.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/everything-we-know-about-the-allegations-against-lesean-mccoy/ar-AAA03yd?ocid=spartanntp

 

edit: Feel free to remove this if I shouldn't have commented on it.

Edited by devaster

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18 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

I strongly disagree with you... just look at the number of highlights he's posted over the last few years. 6'5" and knows how to use his body and size to get position. Has a nasty stiff-arm to get extra yards. Fast enough to get downfield and makes tough catches in tight coverage. Only reason Carolina traded him was because Funchess is a similar player, and they didn't want to pay Benjamin once his rookie contract expired. Had nothing to do with Benjamin's ability. 

 

Coming off an ACL tear and a mid-season trade to one of the lowest rated passing teams in the league, he didn't have much to show in 2017.

 

Ok, aside from some highlight moments he has significantly underperformed versus his draft capital. He doesnt run great routes which means he doesnt get separation  and he doesnt dominate given his physcial size.  Take away his highlights and he is not a very consistent productive wr for 4qtrs of football.

His best performance was his rookie year catching jump balls.  He was drafted as a development project for the panthers and he still hasn't lived up to his potential. 

 

Yes the panthers kept Funchess because as you stated he was similar to benjamin  in most aspects except 1 which was he was faster than Benjamin and adding cmc and samuel meant they wanted to be a faster team. benjamins limited skill set and his slow speed made him expendable, the contract was just a extra incentive.  i think the panterhs did well getting 2 draft picks for him.

I just don't think Kelvin is going to do well on a very bad offense that won't be in the red zone very often. I would prefer to own the TE and the slot receiver with a AJM or a rookie QB. 

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Posted (edited)

 

when you’re 6’5, you’re kind of always open 

 

I don’t get points for “seperation” in my leagues, just throw it up to Sasquatch 

 

 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Not sure what the Bills were thinking last season doing that trade but benjamin is really not that good of a wr.  He's a big body with very little skill and athleticism so unless you have a QB who can has pinpoint accuracy, kelvin is not going to make plays on his own. He was one of those projects coming out of college, had a great season due to Cam's ability to be a playmaker feeding him volume and TD's. 

 

29 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

I strongly disagree with you... just look at the number of highlights he's posted over the last few years. 6'5" and knows how to use his body and size to get position. Has a nasty stiff-arm to get extra yards. Fast enough to get downfield and makes tough catches in tight coverage. Only reason Carolina traded him was because Funchess is a similar player, and they didn't want to pay Benjamin once his rookie contract expired. Had nothing to do with Benjamin's ability. 

 

Coming off an ACL tear and a mid-season trade to one of the lowest rated passing teams in the league, he didn't have much to show in 2017.

 

I’m not just saying this because I’m a ‘Nole, and I don’t think I have my blinders on: Kelvin Benjamin is an outstanding talent. 

 

However he is FAT. KB’s overweight, and this has a huge negative effect on 1) his speed, 2) his health and likelihood to prevent injury, and 3) his sucking and taking up space on the field. 

 

I’m not suggesting that a 6’5” WR can’t be TE-sized, however it ain’t muscle and he’s out of shape (last season at least) and it looks like he’s bulking up to be a blocking TE. This time last year, KB talk about how he was going to work hard to get into the best shape of his life. It not only didn’t happen, but he was as lethargic as old man Brandon Marshall out there and the Panthers dumped him. I think they would’ve been ready to re-sign him had Benjamin held true to his promise of revamping his health/physical performance instead of embracing what seems to be an eating disorder combined with a comfy couch.

 

I’d suggest KB’s outlook is clearly tied to his physique, and if we don’t see him in solid shape by August, he’ll essentially have the production value of a TE (behind Clay) until re-injuring himself. If he goes all TB12 / alkaline diet—or eats kale or sashimi or whatever Josh Gordon seems to be eating—and combines this with a consistent dedication in the gym, KB is a top 20 WR only undermined by playing for predictably the worst passing offense in the NFL. Keep tuned to his health (or lack of it).

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7 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

 

I’m not just saying this because I’m a ‘Nole, and I don’t think I have my blinders on: Kelvin Benjamin is an outstanding talent. 

 

However he is FAT. KB’s overweight, and this has a huge negative effect on 1) his speed, 2) his health and likelihood to prevent injury, and 3) his sucking and taking up space on the field. 

 

I’m not suggesting that a 6’5” WR can’t be TE-sized, however it ain’t muscle and he’s out of shape (last season at least) and it looks like he’s bulking up to be a blocking TE. This time last year, KB talk about how he was going to work hard to get into the best shape of his life. It not only didn’t happen, but he was as lethargic as old man Brandon Marshall out there and the Panthers dumped him. I think they would’ve been ready to re-sign him had Benjamin held true to his promise of revamping his health/physical performance instead of embracing what seems to be an eating disorder combined with a comfy couch.

 

I’d suggest KB’s outlook is clearly tied to his physique, and if we don’t see him in solid shape by August, he’ll essentially have the production value of a TE (behind Clay) until re-injuring himself. If he goes all TB12 / alkaline diet—or eats kale or sashimi or whatever Josh Gordon seems to be eating—and combines this with a consistent dedication in the gym, KB is a top 20 WR only undermined by playing for predictably the worst passing offense in the NFL. Keep tuned to his health (or lack of it).

 

Contract year ...

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26 minutes ago, devaster said:

After reading through the information regarding the allegations against McCoy I think he will be safely available for the Bills next season. Question is... will the QB situation set him back? Could end up being a value pick if his ADP drops due to the allegations.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/everything-we-know-about-the-allegations-against-lesean-mccoy/ar-AAA03yd?ocid=spartanntp

 

$16 in my auction last night (not by me)... 

Similar price two days ago. His ADP has dropped significantly as of now.

However, in a slow-draft Best Ball this week, saw him go early 3rd.

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1 minute ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Contract year ...

 

So Benjamin will eat as much as possible? Because he doesn’t know where his next meal is coming from?

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Just now, cohenstantinople said:

 

So Benjamin will eat as much as possible? Because he doesn’t know where his next meal is coming from?

 

or work his a** off (literally) to get that next deal? ha?

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13 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

or work his a** off (literally) to get that next deal? ha?

 

Ha.

 

Not the best photo, but it’s from KB’s freshman (NFL) year and he’s lean.

 

The other photo showing a comparison is too large for me to upload and refuses to be compressed, which is funny in itself 

795606E5-ACC4-4D41-91F3-ED2B571AFBE4.jpeg

  • Haha 1

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21 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

 

I’m not just saying this because I’m a ‘Nole, and I don’t think I have my blinders on: Kelvin Benjamin is an outstanding talent. 

 

 

 He is a 27yr old WR on the 4th year of his rookie contract and his 2nd team whereas his draft class wr age is 24-25yrs old-watkins-odell-evans-etc. He is not that talented of an NFL wr. . he had POTENTIAL based on his physical size and his 1yr as a starter for FSU. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

 He is a 27yr old WR on the 4th year of his rookie contract and his 2nd team whereas his draft class wr age is 24-25yrs old-watkins-odell-evans-etc. He is not that talented of an NFL wr. . he had POTENTIAL based on his physical size and his 1yr as a starter for FSU. 

 

 

 

He has been grossly out of shape and under-conditioned since his injury / year off from the NFL. His talent—and speed—is beneath several layers of blubber.

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