BrianM

Buffalo Bills 2018 Season Outlook

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The streak is over...........I guess, but after a total dud of a playoff game, its premature to say Buffalo has broken through despite making the postseason.    

 

What's New?

-New OC Brian Daboll.  Certainly a successful position coach and a successful college OC, but as a pro OC?  We'll see.

-Not much else on the coaching front or front office.   Two things notable-  Brandon Beane was hired after last year's draft, so this is his first crack at the college boys.  Another-Terry Robiskie as WR coach- well traveled and respected- could have an impact on a mishmash unit.

-Two firsts and two second round picks, though all are from playoff teams.  Still this is a team that's tried and somewhat failed in recent tradeups for high picks, so this is a changeup.

-Plenty of cap space.  The Doug Whaley era was usually a cap strapped time.  

 

What's Up in the Air on Offense?

(What ISN'T?)

-Tyrod Taylor- is the saga ending?   The Bills are firmly in the center of the group of teams that have uncertainty at QB, and honestly could go a number of directions

-Cordy Glenn-  a strong LT when healthy, but his fill in last season (Dion Dawkins) played well as the season passed.   Does Dion go to RT if Glenn stays?  Could Glenn move to guard?  Is he tradeable?

-Incognito-  still playing at a high level, but he's aging and they can save plenty if they cut him, though it leaves a huge hole in the OL- one of their stronger (in relative terms) position groups

WR's-  Kelvin will be back.  Zay Jones will get another chance, surely.    They'll need more guys here, either as depth or to challenge for targets.  With so many needs, do you invest here or focus elsewhere?

RB depth- Shady is 30.   No reason to worry about this season, necessarily, but the future has to be considered, and he needs a #2 of some sort, even if he still has his A game this year.

 

What's Up in the Air on Defense?
DE-  Jerry Hughes, despite a low sack total, sticks around, but its pretty clear he's not an alpha pass rusher.    Shaq Lawson hasn't splashed yet.

DT- Dareus gone, Kyle Williams might retire.  Even if he doesn't, this is a huge need

LB-  The team should end up in nickel a lot.   Alexander should play a limited role in their base D, and Milano has a starting gig.   They need a three down LB.  Preston Brown is a FA, and while he racked up tackles, is not a playmaker.    

Secondary depth-  four strong starters now with Vontae Davis signed- the team's biggest strength by far.......but there are no NFL caliber players signed behind these four.  They played well once they committed to nickel more late in the season, so at the very least, a nickel CB is a major need.  

 

 

This team's narrative is going to shift often this offseason.    For discussion's sake, the fun question in town is to trade up or not trade up in round 1 for the next QB.    

 

 

Edited by BrianM
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For my money, here's what I do:

 

-Consider trading up, but not at the price of both first rounders.   If they can grab a guy they like by moving up, say, 10 spots, and giving up just one of the 2nd rounders and maybe a later pick, that's a good idea.   But i dont pay the ultimate price, i'm just not sold on any of these guys.     If they hold on to Taylor as a worst case scenario, that's........not that bad?    Perhaps come April, Foles is available for a 2nd rounder.   I dont think trading up to #2 is realistic, and I think its more reasonable than most people think that one of the top 3 QB's slips out of the top 10.     If they like Allen or Jackson, there's a chance those guys fall all the way to their pick without a trade.     

 

-Draft a young RB, maybe in the third, or even late second if the right fit presents itself

 

-Leave the pass game weapons alone- find a cheap option to add to the WR mix, at best.  A stopgap veteran.   

 

-Keep Glenn at LT, move Dawkins to RT.  Keep Incognito.  Start Groy at C.   This, along with the fresh legs at RB mixing with Shady, leaves the running game stronger than it was last year, and that, with Tyrod, is at least a somewhat functional offense.  Or, if there's a rookie QB, its a pillar to help protect him while he assimilates.

 

-Spend the rest of draft capital and FA on defense.   If my optimism holds, they could get a QB while keeping another first and second rounder to fill these holes.  Get 2 or 3 starters in the front seven this way.  Add depth across the board as well.     

 

Edited by BrianM

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

For my money, here's what I do:

 

-Consider trading up, but not at the price of both first rounders.   If they can grab a guy they like by moving up, say, 10 spots, and giving up just one of the 2nd rounders and maybe a later pick, that's a good idea.   But i dont pay the ultimate price, i'm just not sold on any of these guys.     If they hold on to Taylor as a worst case scenario, that's........not that bad?    Perhaps come April, Foles is available for a 2nd rounder.   I dont think trading up to #2 is realistic, and I think its more reasonable than most people think that one of the top 3 QB's slips out of the top 10.     If they like Allen or Jackson, there's a chance those guys fall all the way to their pick without a trade.     

 

-Draft a young RB, maybe in the third, or even late second if the right fit presents itself

 

-Leave the pass game weapons alone- find a cheap option to add to the WR mix, at best.  A stopgap veteran.   

 

-Keep Glenn at LT, move Dawkins to RT.  Keep Incognito.  Start Groy at C.   This, along with the fresh legs at RB mixing with Shady, leaves the running game stronger than it was last year, and that, with Tyrod, is at least a somewhat functional offense.  Or, if there's a rookie QB, its a pillar to help protect him while he assimilates.

 

-Spend the rest of draft capital and FA on defense.   If my optimism holds, they could get a QB while keeping another first and second rounder to fill these holes.  Get 2 or 3 starters in the front seven this way.  Add depth across the board as well.     

 

 

Nice work. 

 

I like your plan on OL.  I do think they should upgrade RG.

 

I can't see them drafting Lamar although I think he has a vastly better feel for pro passing schemes than Tyrod.  It seemed to me that the powers that be there want a traditional pocket guy.   

 

Agreed on WR.

 

I don't think Foles is getting dealt but that's a different conversation.

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As a pokes and Bills fan, part of me hopes they go for Allen. However, with how badly Peterman/Manuel were botched, a developmental QB seems to be a bad choice. I think they go for one of the Minnesota QBs, Foles or McCarron. They've been looking for a pocket passing game manager since Orton and any of those could fit the bill.

 

With how badly they utilized Tyrods skill set this year it's apparent they wanted no part of him then so I doubt they keep him.

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So, Chris Ivory is in the mix now at running back.   He seems like a slight upgrade over Tolbert, at best.   Beane seems to be all about the compensatory pick formula, hence this signing and Vontae Davis thusfar.    

 

Here's the thing though- this roster was already old.  It still needs a younger RB, so I'd hope they have their eyes on a mid or late round pick here to mix in, or at least, a priority UDFA.   Vontae Davis made sense to me as it actually improved their strongest position group, and he has pro bowl potential.  Ivory's just a gap plugger, taking up a roster spot that a better, younger player could've had. 

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In regards to Tyrod's replacement, perhaps Keenum could fill in? (And Tyrod to Cardinals?) Thoughts?

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The Bills could be among the bottom 5 in the league, or make the Playoffs.

 

I’ll be dammed if I know which it’s going to be...

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18 hours ago, GreatestShowonTurf said:

In regards to Tyrod's replacement, perhaps Keenum could fill in? (And Tyrod to Cardinals?) Thoughts?

 

I don't think the door is shut on Tyrod staying.   Personally IMO, he's no better or worse than any non-Cousins free agent QB.   If they cut Tyrod, that's 8 mil of dead money, combined with whatever it takes to sign a vet- probably more than the 18 mil cap hit Tyrod has.   For a QB that's truly worth getting, that's fine, but not for a journeyman.   Taylor's a .500 QB at least, stick with it in that case.

 

What they'll actually do is anyone's guess.  One camp of journos and rumor mongers thinks they're trying to trade up, another says no.   Anything's possible.  

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they need to target the Colts as a trading partner for a swap, although CLE has the luxury to be flexible with the #4

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7 hours ago, lolcopter said:

Making the moves to go up and get their QB

 

 

 

 

Good luck with that gutted OL...whoever they get is going to get killed. 

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Glenn missed most of last season, and had a capable rookie replace him.   Their line has issues, for sure, but Dawkins is not one of them.   Then again, Dawkins playing RT with Glenn at LT would've strengthened things from an overall perspective.

 

If Incognito is back, they're not much worse off, honestly, but they could really stand to improve and get younger.   They filled in a few holes already, but they still have many, many needs beyond QB.     

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Good luck with that gutted OL...whoever they get is going to get killed. 

Glenn has started 16 games the last 2 years, he's turning 29 and has a chronic foot problem, the Bills were looking to dump his contract since last year. They drafted Dion Dawkins in the 2nd round last year and he played very well at LT last year because Glenn was injured.

Edited by StevieStats
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So you guys need a QB. The Bears would be happy to trade their 1st rd pick for both of your 1st rd picks.

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Alright lets recap since FA started:

 

Star Lotulelei (sp?)-   fills a need.   Still odd that his contract numbers aren't out.   Hard to pass judgment until that time.   He seems like a good, not great DT so the contract will really play a part in judging this to be a good or bad move.   But, at least he's in with his former DC, so you know he fits the scheme.   

 

Kyle Williams-  probably still worth the money for on-field play even at his age.   Not going to be an All Pro, but Star next to him should help, and he's the guy everyone looks up to, so that's worth keeping around

 

Rafael Bush-  cheap secondary depth.  Makes sense.   Last year their third safety was a mix of practice squad level talent.  If Hyde or Poyer sat snaps, their backup was immediately targeted with disastrous results most times.      They still need a nickel CB- they played in nickel a lot last year

 

Julian Stanford-  I dont know anything about this guy- seems like he replaces Ramon Humber.   Provided they still find a new MLB, this is just some depth i guess

 

Trent Murphy-  this one has bust written all over it.   The guy had one good year, and got busted for PED's following it, then injured.    Shaq Lawson hasn't done much yet but I thought there was enough there to give him one last shot.    I now wonder if Shaq's getting traded.    They really really do not like Whaley and Rex's guys, ANY of them, it seems.  

 

ERFA's-   Nick O'Leary and Logan Thomas back for bare minimum deals.   TE depth is secure- they can add if they wish but dont have to.    Eddie Yarborough also- DE who was decent in a limited role.   If they keep Lawson they at least have DE depth now.  

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Guess I was wrong about the Bills trading for the Colts pick. Now it's the browns and Giants who look like the best trading partners

 

 

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Bills are going to have to spend big to move up now.  Maybe they won't.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Bills are going to have to spend big to move up now.  Maybe they won't.

 

Both 2018 1s

2019’s 1 and additional 2018 picks 

 

Its a matter of how in love they are with 2 QBs ... 

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One word.....spice.

 

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38 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:
Umm.

 

24 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

One word.....spice.

 

 

36 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Bummer ... One less player they can include for a Giants trade 

 

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/zay-jones-smashes-foot-window-naked-bloody-fight-article-1.3886858

 

In the graphic video, a stark naked Jones is seen tussling with his brother, Vikings practice squad member Cayleb Jones, in the hallway of an apartment building. Jones can be heard shouting, "I'm going to fight for Jesus!"

According to TMZ Sports, Cayleb was trying to prevent his brother from jumping out of a 30th floor window. Cayleb can be heard yelling "Stop!" and appears to be trying to restrain his younger brother.

 

Jones, however, breaks free and sprints down the hallway, resulting in a woman screaming in fright. According to TMZ Sports, Jones ran into his brother's girlfriend's apartment, before eventually running back out and entering a public balcony area.

 

Jones then smashed his foot through a window. The 22-year-old receiver proceeded to try to squeeze through the hole in the window but was subdued by his brother before police arrived and arrested Jones for felony vandalism, according to TMZ Sports.

 

          Felony vandalism is the least of Zay’s problems. 

 

          Too bad. Talented kid.

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Nearly traded for Zay Jones in dynasty a few days ago. Phew!

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I’m guessing he was perfectly sober and just angry over the fact the Northeast is getting snow again. 

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