BrianM

Buffalo Bills 2018 Season Outlook

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On 4/27/2018 at 9:17 AM, BrianM said:

So Josh Allen it is................yeah.     What i love most of all is the "he's got a strong arm for bad weather" take..........the same was pitched about EJ Manuel and JP Losman.  

 

EJ Manuel's ball velocity was in the lower portion of scores that have been measured at the combine.  Since 2008, 105 QB's have participated in the ball velocity measurement at the combine.  Out of all 105, Josh Allen is #1. 

 

Disclaimer, since people will infer I'm saying Ball Velocity = Success:

 

Ball Velocity isn't a guarantee of success (but a score under 55 is a red flag), but when the Bills say he's got a strong arm it's backed up by statistics and tape.  In fact it's a bit of an under-sell since he has the strongest arm of 105 other QBs that have been drafted.

 

So does Ball Velocity matter at all?  As someone on twitter put it: "2 mph ball velocity might not seem like a big deal, but it translates to 3 ft travelled on 20 yd throw in same time frame. Huge NFL window"

 

ifwRPqV.png 

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10 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

Disclaimer, since people will infer I'm saying Ball Velocity = Success:

 

8 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

wtf I love Tom Savage now

 

825.gif

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I'm hoping that it's OK to discuss a hypothetical about depth chart without going into any rumors and getting thread closed.

 

Free agent RB's (in no particular order):

DeMarco Murray

Jamaal Charles

Adrian Peterson

Andre Ellington

Shane Vereen

Eddie Lacy

Branden Oliver

 

Best potential fit for the Bills or do they ride Ivory and add a 3rd down back like Ellington or Vereen?

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Just now, nonstopfan said:

I'm hoping that it's OK to discuss a hypothetical about depth chart without going into any rumors and getting thread closed.

 

Free agent RB's (in no particular order):

DeMarco Murray

Jamaal Charles

Adrian Peterson

Andre Ellington

Shane Vereen

Eddie Lacy

Branden Oliver

 

Best potential fit for the Bills or do they ride Ivory and add a 3rd down back like Ellington or Vereen?


I won't even entertain this idea right now... 

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Serious question:  I want to stream defenses against the Bills but I think that is going to cost me in FAAB. I'm thinking Ds will go $3-$12 depending on the matchup and proximity to the playoffs.

 

Worth it?  

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Posted (edited)

Time to buy all the shares of that rookie QB. . what's his name again?:lol:

Dez+demarco may be reunited if the Bills situation goes south

Edited by dashoe

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1 minute ago, FreakFries said:

Serious question:  I want to stream defenses against the Bills but I think that is going to cost me in FAAB. I'm thinking Ds will go $3-$12 depending on the matchup and proximity to the playoffs.

 

Worth it?  

I'm a streamer but I also don't play with FAAB so its a little easier/cheaper. The bills are a matchup I'm looking forward to no matter how the recent news shapes up. Their receiving core is probably the weakest in the league and I think Josh Allen will be a big bust (I mean its going to be near impossible to look good in this offense regardless). With a FAAB it might get a little expensive to stream against the Bills but there are usually underrated options on the waiver wire that end up top 5 scorers for the week so I don't see why you can't do it a few times and go elsewhere when price is above your threshold. 

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6 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

I'm a streamer but I also don't play with FAAB so its a little easier/cheaper. The bills are a matchup I'm looking forward to no matter how the recent news shapes up. Their receiving core is probably the weakest in the league and I think Josh Allen will be a big bust (I mean its going to be near impossible to look good in this offense regardless). With a FAAB it might get a little expensive to stream against the Bills but there are usually underrated options on the waiver wire that end up top 5 scorers for the week so I don't see why you can't do it a few times and go elsewhere when price is above your threshold. 

 

FTR - I was seriously considering this before the latest news but now I'm thinking I'm all in. FAAB can be frustrating in that you have to balance conserving cash while also not missing out. That's another discussion but for the purposes of this one, I think you have a good point re: the other possibilities week to week. Looking worth the steady drag on the FAAB. I wonder how high I will have to draft the Raven's D week 1.

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28 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

Free agent RB's (in no particular order):

DeMarco Murray

Jamaal Charles

Adrian Peterson

Andre Ellington

Shane Vereen

Eddie Lacy

Branden Oliver

 

Best potential fit for the Bills or do they ride Ivory and add a 3rd down back like Ellington or Vereen?

 

With the guys they currently have, I doubt they look for another 3rd down back.

I assume they roll with Ivory; many forget how good he coulda/woulda/kindahas been.

 

But even if that's the case, they would need to bring in a dependable #2 as backup anyways.

Murray and AP are the only 2 on that list worth signing in my opinion. (For this role)

There are some potential trades that make sense.  Doug Martin and Jeremy Hill come to mind.

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4-12 this year, stay away from McCoy.

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I'm not sure they'll do anything with any of these free agents    Its not as if all of these less than par options are going to disappear in the next 6 weeks or so.   If things continue to look cloudy (being intentionally vague, not trying to discount the seriousness of this), they likely have the same pick of the litter later on.    I also think they'll want to see what veterans shake loose, or maybe the old "conditional 7th round draft pick" trade can get them an extra vet RB that a team doesn't want, once they realize the UDFA they snagged has some potential, and they need to clear some roster space

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32 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

With the guys they currently have, I doubt they look for another 3rd down back.

I assume they roll with Ivory; many forget how good he coulda/woulda/kindahas been.

 

But even if that's the case, they would need to bring in a dependable #2 as backup anyways.

Murray and AP are the only 2 on that list worth signing in my opinion. (For this role)

There are some potential trades that make sense.  Doug Martin and Jeremy Hill come to mind.

 

if I'm Dorsey and  have a strong feeling about chubb being the dominant rb, I'm probably going to dangle Hyde in front of Buffalo just to see what the bid would be.

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Posted (edited)

Based on the price he cost, it would've made infinite sense for the Bills to have just signed Hyde at that same price.    NHL teams do this a ton- their goalie is in his last season, you get his replacement signed for something cheap for 3 years or so, let em split the first year, and afterwards you've got a prime player ready to take on the full load. 

 

With their weapons being what they are, and the Bills being highly likely to mortgage picks to get a QB, doubling down on RB's would've made so much sense back in March.   

Edited by BrianM

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1 hour ago, nonstopfan said:

I'm hoping that it's OK to discuss a hypothetical about depth chart without going into any rumors and getting thread closed.

 

Free agent RB's (in no particular order):

DeMarco Murray

Jamaal Charles

Adrian Peterson

Andre Ellington

Shane Vereen

Eddie Lacy

Branden Oliver

 

Best potential fit for the Bills or do they ride Ivory and add a 3rd down back like Ellington or Vereen?

Everyone forgets about Orleans Darkwa... 

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1 hour ago, FreakFries said:

Serious question:  I want to stream defenses against the Bills but I think that is going to cost me in FAAB. I'm thinking Ds will go $3-$12 depending on the matchup and proximity to the playoffs.

 

Worth it?  

 

Just draft the Patriots defense. 6 of their games are against Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets.

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7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Everyone forgets about Orleans Darkwa... 

 

Yep, and besides him, i'd also choose Alfred Morris over that whole lot.   Branden Oliver went to college in Buffalo, so if they're gonna go for a league minimum cheapie, he's probably the guy.  

 

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I'm still scratching my head about Jonathan Williams last season.

They make it through 2017 with Mike Tolbert and Travaris Cadet, two of the lowest-upside backs in the league.

 

Then this offseason, they give $5.5m to 30yr old Chris Ivory for 2 yrs?

UDFA Keith Ford should be a lock to make the team, but then again all bets are off predicting what will come out of this mess. 

 

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31 minutes ago, cousinal111 said:

 

Just draft the Patriots defense. 6 of their games are against Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets.

 

 

Sold.

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48 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Everyone forgets about Orleans Darkwa... 

Funny that people laugh, even though Darkwa is significantly younger, and better, than every one of the names mentioned. He had probably the worst offensive line in football last year, but had a better YPC than any player on that list. 

 

I'm not saying Darkwa is a superstar running back, but I'd sign him before anyone from that list. 

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3 hours ago, FreakFries said:

Serious question:  I want to stream defenses against the Bills but I think that is going to cost me in FAAB. I'm thinking Ds will go $3-$12 depending on the matchup and proximity to the playoffs.

 

Worth it?  

 

If your team permits it too grab them for $0 the week before. Obviously bench size, record, injuries, byes etc... come into play but if you are looking strong and have a spot can always grab them a week early.

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I dont know that i'd ever just try to target one offense to stream against.  There's always going to be many bad teams to choose from, and some defenses are just putrid and will never pay off against any offense.   

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13 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I dont know that i'd ever just try to target one offense to stream against.  There's always going to be many bad teams to choose from, and some defenses are just putrid and will never pay off against any offense.   

 

Well there will be weeks where the team facing the bills are already owned so you'll have to go elsewhere. I read somewhere and will try to find it but last year if you had the D facing the Browns every week you'd have had a top defense, obviously in this case the 2 times they faced the Ravens and I'm sure other teams were universally owned.

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Does the Bills have the worst offense in the NFL?  I think so.  I want no part of it.

 

The Bills are in the running to draft #1 in 2019.

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