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Tarik Cohen 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, psygolf said:

If you want to mix in bench players we will get nowhere...plus, I doubt Hunt's catch rate was 9th on the team.

His catch rate was 84%, I’m assuming you are wanting to know percentage based off catches divided by targets? Which I would assume would be the best on the team. Now his yards per reception (which you brought up) would be sixth best if you wanted to make the minimum 35 targets.  If you are not a starter, are you considered a bench player? It does feel like this is not getting anywhere. lol I get it you are heels dug in on your view and that’s awesome. It’s the beauty of each person having their own outlook and expectations. 

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22 hours ago, psygolf said:

I just didn't feel it necessary to get into a semantic battle over KC running "quite a few more" plays than the Bear last year, as you had posted.

 

Happy that we're all back up to speed on the real #s.

Actually you intimated that I looked up the numbers and they didn't support my assumption

which case they did. Just not as drastically as I assumed. But that's another semantic battle as "quite a few" is a subjective number.

Edited by howlin' 2

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5 hours ago, ajs723 said:

That logic doesn't work though. This isn't the same team as last year. If they had brought back all the same pieces, but were planning to throw the ball more, then I'd see your point. However, nothing from what the Bears did last season is relevant. This team may as well not be called the Bears. 

 

In other words, it makes no sense to base Cohen's projections on any Bears stats from 2017. I could just as easily point out the 93 targets that Duke Johnson got, or the 110 that Alvin Kamara got, or the 121 that CMC got, and use that as the basis for my Cohen projections. 

 

 

But it should translate, we are using best-case KC stats to project here, where Nagy had his offense implemented in full force with fine QB play.   Sorry, but Cohen isn't going to be a RB2 this year, unless his usage sees the same increase thru injury-attrition that benefited him last year. 

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3 hours ago, howlin' 2 said:

Actually you intimated that I looked up the numbers and they didn't support my assumption

which case they did. Just not as drastically as I assumed. But that's another semantic battle as "quite a few" is a subjective number.

It's nice when a vague statement leaves plenty of room to back out of it.

 

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6 minutes ago, psygolf said:

But it should translate, we are using best-case KC stats to project here, where Nagy had his offense implemented in full force with fine QB play.   Sorry, but Cohen isn't going to be a RB2 this year, unless his usage sees the same increase thru injury-attrition that benefited him last year. 

Going to have to agree to strongly disagree. Can't see Cohen not being an RB2 in PPR unless he gets hurt. Time will tell. 

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16 minutes ago, psygolf said:

It's nice when a vague statement leaves plenty of room to back out of it.

 

There were 114 RB targets for KC last season. Can we call that "quite a few"? Cohen should get the overwhelming majority of those targets for Chicago. Howard is incompetent as a receiver, and Cunningham isn't even of Charc West's level. 

Edited by ajs723

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

There were 114 RB targets for KC last season. Can we call that "quite a few"? Cohen should get the overwhelming majority of those targets for Chicago. Howard is incompetent as a receiver, and Cunningham isn't even of Charc West's level. 

Back to the subjective...I'd call 70 targets a overwhelming majority of those.

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New discussion...

 

Should Tarik Cohen's catch radius actually be called a strike zone-??

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

There were 114 RB targets for KC last season. Can we call that "quite a few"? Cohen should get the overwhelming majority of those targets for Chicago. Howard is incompetent as a receiver, and Cunningham isn't even of Charc West's level. 

Interestingly, the bears threw "quite a few" more times to their rbs under Fox than Nagy did last year with the Chiefs

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4 hours ago, psygolf said:

It's nice when a vague statement leaves plenty of room to back out of it.

 

No need to back out when you are right in the first place. I thought they ran more plays and they did. You incorrectly stated the numbers probably didn't back up my assumption and ran your mouth about it only takes minimal time to check it out. I didn't care to initially . You made it an issue and you are, were wrong . If anyone should back out of the discussion it should be the one who made a wrong assumption...that would be you ! 

 

All I said was I thought the difference would've been even greater. But yes, KC did run more plays. If you want to play semantic games to claim a victory and ignore the fact my assumption was right then do so. Facts would say otherwise

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6 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

No need to back out when you are right in the first place. I thought they ran more plays and they did. You incorrectly stated the numbers probably didn't back up my assumption and ran your mouth about it only takes minimal time to check it out. I didn't care to initially . You made it an issue and you are, were wrong . If anyone should back out of the discussion it should be the one who made a wrong assumption...that would be you ! 

 

All I said was I thought the difference would've been even greater. But yes, KC did run more plays. If you want to play semantic games to claim a victory and ignore the fact my assumption was right then do so. Facts would say otherwise

It doesn't matter now...it was just brought to light that Fox threw more to his rbs than Nagy, targets are going down for Tarik.

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39 minutes ago, psygolf said:

It doesn't matter now...it was just brought to light that Fox threw more to his rbs than Nagy, targets are going down for Tarik.

I was Thee biggest Tarik supporter going into draft. Wasn't thrilled@ landing in Chicago with Fox and knowing the Bears would play to their defense by pounding Howard as much as possible. They hid Tarik during the summer camp to catch Atlanta and Pittsburgh by surprise. Cohen had 21 targets in the first two weeks. It took six weeks before Tarik got another 21.The nfl adjusts and once teams sent spies in coverage on Cohen the Bears just inexplicably quit using him. Week 17 he got 8 targets. 

 

In the 13 weeks in between Loggains and Fox got barely 3 targets a game towards Cohen. Benny Cunningham was in the majority of time in catch up mode. Granted Benny is great pass protector but having your best big play threat sitting all the time was ridiculous. 

 

 So as an avid watcher of Cohen and the Bears the numbers were ridiculously skewed by the first couple of weeks. Also Nagy was with Reid in KC when they threw to their RB's 236 times. Charles and McClusterf*** BOTH had over 80 targets. So I'm guessing that they tailor the game plan to the team strengths.

 

So if you want to assume based off last year that Nagy won't throw more to Cohen than they did to Hunt go right ahead. My assumption is that you'll be wrong again. I keep saying that you need to have a vision of where they are going forward to, not where they've been. 

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1 hour ago, howlin' 2 said:

I was Thee biggest Tarik supporter going into draft. Wasn't thrilled@ landing in Chicago with Fox and knowing the Bears would play to their defense by pounding Howard as much as possible. They hid Tarik during the summer camp to catch Atlanta and Pittsburgh by surprise. Cohen had 21 targets in the first two weeks. It took six weeks before Tarik got another 21.The nfl adjusts and once teams sent spies in coverage on Cohen the Bears just inexplicably quit using him. Week 17 he got 8 targets. 

 

In the 13 weeks in between Loggains and Fox got barely 3 targets a game towards Cohen. Benny Cunningham was in the majority of time in catch up mode. Granted Benny is great pass protector but having your best big play threat sitting all the time was ridiculous. 

 

 So as an avid watcher of Cohen and the Bears the numbers were ridiculously skewed by the first couple of weeks. Also Nagy was with Reid in KC when they threw to their RB's 236 times. Charles and McClusterf*** BOTH had over 80 targets. So I'm guessing that they tailor the game plan to the team strengths.

 

So if you want to assume based off last year that Nagy won't throw more to Cohen than they did to Hunt go right ahead. My assumption is that you'll be wrong again. I keep saying that you need to have a vision of where they are going forward to, not where they've been. 

You have yet to show a post where I was wrong...in this thread

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2 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Howard's catch rate trend...

'17  58%, 

'18  71%

Dude c'mon. Howard had FIVE drops last season. On 32 targets. The only running back in the whole league with more drops was Hyde. He had 6. On 88 targets! Howard's pass catching skills are absolutely atrocious. If it isn't a simple dump off pass, he can't catch it. 

 

This is a guy who had offseason eye surgery to improve his ability to catch the football. It didn't help. 

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Dude c'mon. Howard had FIVE drops last season. On 32 targets. The only running back in the whole league with more drops was Hyde. He had 6. On 88 targets! Howard's pass catching skills are absolutely atrocious. If it isn't a simple dump off pass, he can't catch it. 

 

This is a guy who had offseason eye surgery to improve his ability to catch the football. It didn't help. 

I'm willing to say his targets will go up by "quite a bit"

Edited by psygolf

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1 minute ago, psygolf said:

I'm willing to say his targets will go up by "quite a bit"

I don't even know if you believe what you're posting anymore..... 

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Just now, ajs723 said:

I don't even know if you believe what you're posting anymore..... 

I'm more confident that Howard will see 2 targets a game than I am that Tarik will see 5 targets per game

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53 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I'm more confident that Howard will see 2 targets a game than I am that Tarik will see 5 targets per game

I feel the same way.

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I'm assuming Cohen is expected to retain kick and punt return duties?  I saw that some new kickoff rules were approved and they actually seem that they might increase return yardage overall.  Summary:

 

- increased number of players on kicking team that need to line up on each side of ball (potentially fewer onside kicks).

kickoff team has to line up within 1 yard of line of scrimmage (longer returns since kicking team doesn't get running start)

- no more wedge blocks for return team (overall negative to return team)

- ball dead for touchback if it touches the ground in the endzone (no change to returns)

- a couple other positioning rules that are designed to increase safety but shouldn't affect return yardage much

 

Cohen was an RB2 in my league last year and I can keep him in round 10 this year, but if he isn't returning kicks/punts his value decreases dramatically in my league (standard scoring  with return yardage).

Edited by WEIL3R

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9 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

I'm assuming Cohen is expected to retain kick and punt return duties?  I saw that some new kickoff rules were approved and they actually seem that they might increase return yardage overall.  Summary:

 

- increased number of players on kicking team that need to line up on each side of ball (potentially fewer onside kicks).

kickoff team has to line up within 1 yard of line of scrimmage (longer returns since kicking team doesn't get running start)

- no more wedge blocks for return team (overall negative to return team)

- ball dead for touchback if it touches the ground in the endzone (no change to returns)

- a couple other positioning rules that are designed to increase safety but shouldn't affect return yardage much

 

Cohen was an RB2 in my league last year and I can keep him in round 10 this year, but if he isn't returning kicks/punts his value decreases dramatically in my league (standard scoring  with return yardage).

Most leagues really only consider return TD's. But I think these kick-off rules could lead to more kick return TD's.

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5 minutes ago, devaster said:

Most leagues really only consider return TD's. But I think these kick-off rules could lead to more kick return TD's.

 

I understand.  My league scores return yardage and return TD's but is not PPR.  Therefore, someone who has return yardage and also is involved to some degree on the offense gets a big boost.  I was worried that the new rules would reduce return yardage but that doesn't seem to be the case.  

 

I was also just trying to confirm that Cohen will be returning punts/kicks this year.  He did a great job last year but I'm not sure if they brought anyone else in to compete for those touches.

Edited by WEIL3R

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14 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

 

I understand.  My league scores return yardage and return TD's but is not PPR.  Therefore, someone who has return yardage and also is involved to some degree on the offense gets a big boost.  I was worried that the new rules would reduce return yardage but that doesn't seem to be the case.  

 

I was also just trying to confirm that Cohen will be returning punts/kicks this year.  He did a great job last year but I'm not sure if they brought anyone else in to compete for those touches.

 

I mean I dont think that's ever going to be confirmed, at least not till much closer to season. They brought in plenty of guys who could returns kicks, and they have a new ST Coordinator, and an entirely new concept of how they want to implement Cohen on offense. 

 

Knowing the roster, unless they keep Demarcus Ayers on as a return guy, I think Cohen's the most likely to get the slot. But there's a few guys who could do it and I think we're too far out to know definitively. 

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14 hours ago, psygolf said:

You have yet to show a post where I was wrong...in this thread

  On 5/19/2018 at 7:08 PM, howlin' 2 said:

 

W/o looking I'm going to guess KC ran quite a few more plays 

" It takes 2 seconds to look it up...you obviously didn't find the #s you thought you'd see "

 

You were wrong twice in one sentence. I didn't obviously find the #s as I didn't look. #1 wrong assumption

 

After seeing your response I did look them up and they did run more plays.

#2 wrong assumption The numbers did show my assumption was right.

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1 hour ago, howlin' 2 said:

  On 5/19/2018 at 7:08 PM, howlin' 2 said:

 

W/o looking I'm going to guess KC ran quite a few more plays 

" It takes 2 seconds to look it up...you obviously didn't find the #s you thought you'd see "

 

You were wrong twice in one sentence. I didn't obviously find the #s as I didn't look. #1 wrong assumption

 

After seeing your response I did look them up and they did run more plays.

#2 wrong assumption The numbers did show my assumption was right.

You admitted that the difference in total plays was not as appreciable as you originally thought...now if you want to call that being right, then go ahead.

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