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Tarik Cohen 2018 Outlook

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3 hours ago, psygolf said:

You admitted that the difference in total plays was not as appreciable as you originally thought...now if you want to call that being right, then go ahead.

Is that your passive way of getting around admitting you were wrong. So yes I was right, KC ran more plays. Saying that without looking I thought KC would be ranked higher doesn't change the fact that they did indeed run more plays than Chicago. It just means I thought they would be ahead of even more teams. That was based on the perception that they had multiple top tier weapons in Kelce, Tyreek & Hunt. I guess what I didn't take into account is that big plays put up stats and points but lead to fewer plays in drives.

 

Which finally brings us full circle back to the thread topic. TARIK COHEN OUTLOOK for '18 :)

 

Nagy was integral in creating a consistent game plan to get their big playmaker(s) in a position to make big plays. Already he has compared Tarik to Tyreek. One would think that means Cohen would not be shuttered out of the game plan for weeks like Fox & Loggains did from weeks 3-14. 

 

Hunt in 15 gms only had 4 where he didn't see @least 4 targets. Tarik is far superior as a receiver but obviously not the dominant runner so it remains to be seen how it works out . My opinion is he gets 5+ per game.Write me down for 80+ targets. Around the same in carries.

300-350 yds in rushing / 500-550 yds in receiving. Flirting with 200pts in a full PPR lg. Ceiling being Duke in '17.

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1 minute ago, howlin' 2 said:

Hunt in 15 gms only had 4 where he didn't see @least 4 targets. Tarik is far superior as a receiver but obviously not the dominant runner so it remains to be seen how it works out . My opinion is he gets 5+ per game.Write me down for 80+ targets. Around the same in carries.

300-350 yds in rushing / 500-550 yds in receiving. Flirting with 200pts in a full PPR lg. Ceiling being Duke in '17.

Isn't Hunt a starting RB?  ...I don't follow the chiefs.

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11 hours ago, psygolf said:

Isn't Hunt a starting RB?  ...I don't follow the chiefs.

I am trying to read through your vague obviously rhetorical question and my guess is You think comparing a starting RB vs a backup makes it unfair to compare their potential usage.

 

To that I would refer back to McCluster, or C. Thompson, or T. Riddick, or J. McKinnon,or this other rookie with a different name ...something Kamara :huh:

 

Not to be obtuse what I am saying is if Tarik has impressed Coach Nagy already with his receivng skills and Coach Nagy has shown tendency to get RB's involved in the passing game . Cohen is far more skilled in catching the ball, running routes than Howard. Cunningham is probably the bigger threat to get involved in the passing game and limit Tarik's  targets. Unless injury or total flop happens Cohen should be good for 80ish targets. And yes , backup RB's have been the recipient of that many targets per game before.

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16 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

I am trying to read through your vague obviously rhetorical question and my guess is You think comparing a starting RB vs a backup makes it unfair to compare their potential usage.

 

To that I would refer back to McCluster, or C. Thompson, or T. Riddick, or J. McKinnon,or this other rookie with a different name ...something Kamara :huh:

 

Not to be obtuse what I am saying is if Tarik has impressed Coach Nagy already with his receivng skills and Coach Nagy has shown tendency to get RB's involved in the passing game . Cohen is far more skilled in catching the ball, running routes than Howard. Cunningham is probably the bigger threat to get involved in the passing game and limit Tarik's  targets. Unless injury or total flop happens Cohen should be good for 80ish targets. And yes , backup RB's have been the recipient of that many targets per game before.

Cohen was needed to run routes last year because of all of the injuries, and when targeted heavily he didn't do anything to get excited about...he will not be needed to catch the ball this year, there are better options now.  At least acknowledge what happened and what is present.

 

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2 hours ago, psygolf said:

Cohen was needed to run routes last year because of all of the injuries, and when targeted heavily he didn't do anything to get excited about...he will not be needed to catch the ball this year, there are better options now.  At least acknowledge what happened and what is present.

 

 

Is this an accurate representation of what happened? When was Cohen targeted heavily? When did he run a high number of routes in a game because it was “needed”? For the most part last year he played pretty low snap counts and consistently lost snaps to benny Cunningham... for saying “acknowledge what happened” I don’t think this accurately represents what happened at all. He wasn’t utilized that often by the Bears. The first two games of the season were easily his biggest volume weeks and after that he wasn’t gsmeplaned for or utilized enough imo. 

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I am sure we'll see more flashes this pre-season, but my eyes told me last PS that Cohen was as dangerous as they come with a little time and space.  There is no doubt in my mind that if Nagy is intent on scheming Cohen open, he (Cohen) has the potential to be very fantasy relevant. 

 

I just need an answer to one question.  Is Nagy closer to McAdoo or to Shanahan when it comes to HC/OC abilities.  The answer to that question will tell me how much value I place on Cohen. 

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10 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Is this an accurate representation of what happened? When was Cohen targeted heavily? When did he run a high number of routes in a game because it was “needed”? For the most part last year he played pretty low snap counts and consistently lost snaps to benny Cunningham... for saying “acknowledge what happened” I don’t think this accurately represents what happened at all. He wasn’t utilized that often by the Bears. The first two games of the season were easily his biggest volume weeks and after that he wasn’t gsmeplaned for or utilized enough imo. 

How many targets would've made you happy...8-12?

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He had 3 games down the stretch where he was targeted 6-8 times...and was unable to gain more than 16yds in any of those games.

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2 minutes ago, psygolf said:

He had 3 games down the stretch where he was targeted 6-8 times...and was unable to gain more than 16yds in any of those games.

You keep referencing what happened last year on a terrible, no good, very bad team. One which had no Earthly idea what it was doing. It's not relevant.

 

A good team can easily make a pass catching back a monster asset in PPR. We've seen in many many times. Even teams that have many other productive receiving options. It's possible that Trubisky or Nagy (or both) end up disappointing. If you're buying this offense making significant improvements, then it only makes sense to buy Cohen. 

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If the CHI defense is as good as I (and most people) expect, why would they throw significantly more than last year? Nagy didn't exactly sling the rock when he took over KC play calling at the end of last season.

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11 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

If the CHI defense is as good as I (and most people) expect, why would they throw significantly more than last year? Nagy didn't exactly sling the rock when he took over KC play calling at the end of last season.

We have 2 guys sporting some rosy Ditka Foster Grants in this thread...completely blind to the past #'s of both Chi & KC + the new roster before them.  I'm a hometown fan, but for crying out loud, it isn't supposed to carry over to FF projections.

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

You keep referencing what happened last year on a terrible, no good, very bad team. One which had no Earthly idea what it was doing. It's not relevant.

 

A good team can easily make a pass catching back a monster asset in PPR. We've seen in many many times. Even teams that have many other productive receiving options. It's possible that Trubisky or Nagy (or both) end up disappointing. If you're buying this offense making significant improvements, then it only makes sense to buy Cohen. 

Only if it costs cents.

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20 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

If the CHI defense is as good as I (and most people) expect, why would they throw significantly more than last year? Nagy didn't exactly sling the rock when he took over KC play calling at the end of last season.

Dude the Bears threw 473 passes last season. The fewest in the entire NFL. There were games where they flat out refused to throw the ball.  KC threw 543, which was about league average. Even if they only throw as much as KC, that's a huge increase.

 

Tru had games of 16, 15, and 7 passing attempts. Yes, 7. The Bears played a game where they attempted 7 passes. He had 3 other games with 30 or fewer pass attempts. That will not happen this year. He'll be looking at 30-40 throws per game. That's what Alex Smith did last year. 

Edited by ajs723

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

Dude the Bears threw 473 passes last season. The fewest in the entire NFL. There were games where they flat out refused to throw the ball.  KC threw 543, which was about league average. Even if they only throw as much as KC, that's a huge increase.  

Bad math, not huge...4 extra passes per game.

 

Are you now going to tell us that Tarik will get all of those-?

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3 minutes ago, psygolf said:

We have 2 guys sporting some rosy Ditka Foster Grants in this thread...completely blind to the past #'s of both Chi & KC + the new roster before them.  I'm a hometown fan, but for crying out loud, it isn't supposed to carry over to FF projections.

Okay, instead of continuing to bicker and be snarky.... Where would you rank Cohen in PPR this year. You've scoffed at the idea that he could be an RB2, so he's clearly not in your top 30ish. So, top 40? Top 50?

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Just now, ajs723 said:

Okay, instead of continuing to bicker and be snarky.... Where would you rank Cohen in PPR this year. You've scoffed at the idea that he could be an RB2, so he's clearly not in your top 30ish. So, top 40? Top 50?

Well that's the problem...I do not consider any rb ranked outside of the top 18 worthy of rb2 preseason consideration, but try not to worry about that...it's convoluted.

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1 minute ago, psygolf said:

Bad math, not huge...4 extra passes per game.

 

Are you now going to tell us that Tarik will get all of those-?

This is a statistical fallacy wherein you're trying to use a micro data point to misrepresent a macro concept. The Bears will throw more. That's obviously good news for all the pass catchers. Saying it's ONLY 4 passes per game does not discount it. It's just being disingenuous.  

 

Do you realize the difference between the Bears and Patriots is only about 6 passes per game. But that difference is beyond huge. It's gargantuan. 

 

This is no different than saying, the difference between Michael Thomas and Nelson Agholor was only 4 fantasy points per game last year. Not a huge difference!

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

This is a statistical fallacy wherein you're trying to use a micro data point to misrepresent a macro concept. The Bears will throw more. That's obviously good news for all the pass catchers. Saying it's ONLY 4 passes per game does not discount it. It's just being disingenuous.  

 

Do you realize the difference between the Bears and Patriots is only about 6 passes per game. But that difference is beyond huge. It's gargantuan. 

 

This is no different than saying, the difference between Michael Thomas and Nelson Agholor was only 4 fantasy points per game last year. Not a huge difference!

I do not know your league settings...but a 4 point difference per game between 2 players is HUGE in all of mine.

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Do you realize the difference between the Bears and Patriots is only about 6 passes per game. But that difference is beyond huge. It's gargantuan. 

Only if you are counting Lombardi trophies.

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Just now, psygolf said:

I do not know your league settings...but a 4 point difference per game between 2 players is HUGE in all of mine.

Correct. Over the course of a season, that difference is indeed, huge. 

 

As is 4 extra passes per game. To answer your earlier question, Cohen doesn't have to get all 4 of those extra targets, if he just averages 1.25 of those targets per game, that's 20 additional targets. 20 targets translates to what, 14 catches, over 100 yards, probably at least one TD. That's 30-40 fantasy points. That's significant. 

 

Again, this entire discussion is fundamentally flawed, because the Bears target distribution from last year has absolutely nothing to do with the upcoming season. The QB is basically the only thing that hasn't changed. 

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27 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Dude the Bears threw 473 passes last season. The fewest in the entire NFL. There were games where they flat out refused to throw the ball.  KC threw 543, which was about league average. Even if they only throw as much as KC, that's a huge increase.

 

Tru had games of 16, 15, and 7 passing attempts. Yes, 7. The Bears played a game where they attempted 7 passes. He had 3 other games with 30 or fewer pass attempts. That will not happen this year. He'll be looking at 30-40 throws per game. That's what Alex Smith did last year. 

 

Pretty sure they won that game where they threw 7 passes...

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6 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Only if you are counting Lombardi trophies.

And we're right back to snark....

 

I'm going to officially predict that Tarik Cohen will finish 2nd on the Bears in targets in 2018. Quote me. Bookmark it. I don't care. I'm looking forward to coming back to this thread during the season. 

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2 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Pretty sure they won that game where they threw 7 passes...

They did, but that doesn't make it any less absurd. Half the teams that play every week win, none of them ever throw 7 friggin passes in the entire game. Even if the Bears D is great, and the team is winning big, they're going to throw more this year. 

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7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Correct. Over the course of a season, that difference is indeed, huge. 

 

As is 4 extra passes per game. To answer your earlier question, Cohen doesn't have to get all 4 of those extra targets, if he just averages 1.25 of those targets per game, that's 20 additional targets. 20 targets translates to what, 14 catches, over 100 yards, probably at least one TD. That's 30-40 fantasy points. That's significant. 

 

Again, this entire discussion is fundamentally flawed, because the Bears target distribution from last year has absolutely nothing to do with the upcoming season. The QB is basically the only thing that hasn't changed. 

So you are projecting a 31% target share for Tarik on those extra 4 passes...but only a 14% target share on the first 473.    Interesting.

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