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Tarik Cohen 2018 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Also, remember that there were games where the Bears basically refused to even try to throw the ball last season. In fact, here's a list of teams who threw fewer passes than the Bears last year:

 

 

 

That won't happen this year. They could literally throw the ball 100 More times this year. More throws mean more targets. I see somewhere around 80 targets for Cohen. A slight uptick from last season. 

80 targets would get you @ 59 receptions 

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7 hours ago, ajs723 said:

The offense will be so much exponentially more competent that it will offset this, even if true. The Bears have ARob, Gabriel, a rookie, and two unproven tight ends. Look at how much more is ahead of a guy like Kamara on his team's totem pole. Or Tevin Coleman. He had Julio Jones, Gabriel, Sanu, Hooper, and a pass catching running back ahead of him, and he did fine. 

 

If the coaching staff understands how to use Cohen (and by all accounts they do), then he can easily get 5 or 6 targets per game. 

The Coleman comparison is ok...Kamara comparison is a stretch. That said, you are talking about the Falcons and the Saints, which are 2 of the top 3 offenses in the league. The Bears are not. I like Cohen fine and he may be sneaky play some weeks, but I am not starting a Bears 2nd string rb in any format with confidence. 

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6 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

That said, you are talking about the Falcons and the Saints, which are 2 of the top 3 offenses in the league.

 

Or more accurately one of the top 3 offenses.

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1 hour ago, Mattice1 said:

The Coleman comparison is ok...Kamara comparison is a stretch. That said, you are talking about the Falcons and the Saints, which are 2 of the top 3 offenses in the league. The Bears are not. I like Cohen fine and he may be sneaky play some weeks, but I am not starting a Bears 2nd string rb in any format with confidence. 

I think you'll regret that. If Cohen doesn't at least put up low end RB2 numbers in PPR, I'll be very surprised. 

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I am very "bearish" on Nagy and the Bears. I think this team is the team that we're looking at for worst team in football in 2018.

 

I believe this team will suck in all phases. I want nothing to do with Howard, Robinson, Trey Burton or Shaheen, and especially Mitch T. 

 

One guy I am pretty bullish on though is Cohen. I expect to see a lot of double digit deficits in the 4th and quick completions and chain moving. I think this guy can be the over utilized player on a bad team. 

 

But then you have to unfortunately worry about everyone getting tossed on IR in a lost season for minor injuries. Tough team to predict IMO. 

 

I very much don't believe in Nagy, but I definitely await him to prove me wrong, and he very well may. I will probably have a tough time moving my opinion before the season though because I remember last year in preseason mitch T and the Bears looked pretty Bad A. Then mitch went on to just stand in the QB position and never throw the ball for the rest of season. 

 

I know there's new blood at the top, but I'm still pessimistic if it's good new blood. 

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32 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I am very "bearish" on Nagy and the Bears. I think this team is the team that we're looking at for worst team in football in 2018.

 

I believe this team will suck in all phases. I want nothing to do with Howard, Robinson, Trey Burton or Shaheen, and especially Mitch T. 

 

One guy I am pretty bullish on though is Cohen. I expect to see a lot of double digit deficits in the 4th and quick completions and chain moving. I think this guy can be the over utilized player on a bad team. 

 

But then you have to unfortunately worry about everyone getting tossed on IR in a lost season for minor injuries. Tough team to predict IMO. 

 

I very much don't believe in Nagy, but I definitely await him to prove me wrong, and he very well may. I will probably have a tough time moving my opinion before the season though because I remember last year in preseason mitch T and the Bears looked pretty Bad A. Then mitch went on to just stand in the QB position and never throw the ball for the rest of season. 

 

I know there's new blood at the top, but I'm still pessimistic if it's good new blood. 

 

This team is nowhere near worst in the league. Absolutely absurd statement.

 

Add a quality receiving TE, an actual NFL caliber WR Robinson to a good run game / defense?

 

Go look at the Jets roster.

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Last year’s Duke Johnson. If you want to see my analysis on Cohen this year, literally copy and paste what I said last year about Duke Johnson. 

 

Howard injury could also give Cohen some more touches. Solid zero rb target assuming he doesn’t get overdrafted. 

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I am very "bearish" on Nagy and the Bears. I think this team is the team that we're looking at for worst team in football in 2018.

 

I believe this team will suck in all phases. I want nothing to do with Howard, Robinson, Trey Burton or Shaheen, and especially Mitch T. 

 

One guy I am pretty bullish on though is Cohen. I expect to see a lot of double digit deficits in the 4th and quick completions and chain moving. I think this guy can be the over utilized player on a bad team. 

 

But then you have to unfortunately worry about everyone getting tossed on IR in a lost season for minor injuries. Tough team to predict IMO. 

 

I very much don't believe in Nagy, but I definitely await him to prove me wrong, and he very well may. I will probably have a tough time moving my opinion before the season though because I remember last year in preseason mitch T and the Bears looked pretty Bad A. Then mitch went on to just stand in the QB position and never throw the ball for the rest of season. 

 

I know there's new blood at the top, but I'm still pessimistic if it's good new blood. 

I disagree with this assessment, but if it's accurate, then that's great news for ARob and Cohen. If this is a 3 or 4 win team, then there will be a lot of receptions and yards to be had. The jury is out on Nagy, but he's not going to be scared to throw the ball, especially if the Bears are constantly trailing. 

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I side with the thinking that Nagy HAS to be better than Fox, simply because anything is greater than zero.  I understand it's possible he is as bad as Fox, but I'm willing to bet we see a much improved Bears offense this year.  I also think the Bears will have a top 10 defense this year.  Their D was solid last year, and has a bunch of talent - Hicks, Goldman, Roquan, Trevethan, Floyd, Prince, Amos, Fuller and Jackson.  Very solid defense this year at worst.

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3 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I am very "bearish" on Nagy and the Bears. I think this team is the team that we're looking at for worst team in football in 2018.

 

I believe this team will suck in all phases. I want nothing to do with Howard, Robinson, Trey Burton or Shaheen, and especially Mitch T. 

 

One guy I am pretty bullish on though is Cohen. I expect to see a lot of double digit deficits in the 4th and quick completions and chain moving. I think this guy can be the over utilized player on a bad team. 

 

But then you have to unfortunately worry about everyone getting tossed on IR in a lost season for minor injuries. Tough team to predict IMO. 

 

I very much don't believe in Nagy, but I definitely await him to prove me wrong, and he very well may. I will probably have a tough time moving my opinion before the season though because I remember last year in preseason mitch T and the Bears looked pretty Bad A. Then mitch went on to just stand in the QB position and never throw the ball for the rest of season. 

 

I know there's new blood at the top, but I'm still pessimistic if it's good new blood. 

 

Why on earth do you think this is the worst team in football in 2018? What facet of this team is poor? The Defense, O-Line, Receiving Core, Running Backs, are all above average. There's not a single poor position grouping in this entire roster. Trubisky is a variable of course and like any team they'll live and die by him, but do you have any reason to say this at all? Because to be the Bears are a far better team than even like the 49ers who everyone is so ga-ga about. The Bears have youth and talent at every position. 

 

Are you saying suck at all phases of the offense at least? You can call me a fan if you want but I've never really defended my team much and I think your opinion is honestly kind've absurd and tells me you really know nothing about how good, young, and talented this roster is.

 

The Bears are in a better position for a long term competitive window then the vast majority of the NFL. If you don't believe me look at their roster and the ages per position. It is an insanely young roster, with a lot of proven NFL talent. 

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I like the bears but i honestly don't know which player to target outside of howard and Arob . this roster is going to be completely mispriced in drafts

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14 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I like the bears but i honestly don't know which player to target outside of howard and Arob . this roster is going to be completely mispriced in drafts

 

I do agree with this strongly btw^^

 

I think this offense has all the potential in the world. If someone more pessimistic wants to argue downsides and floors, those are all fair arguments as well. But this is a cap-less offense. There is no ceiling. There's no reason if Trubisky makes the proper advancements, which is a massive MASSIVE IF, that this offense couldn't be as good theoretically as just about any offense in football. I mean they have all the pieces and all the proper personnel and now, at least IMO, the proper offensive scheme mindset to make things work in the modern NFL. AR has all the talent of a WR1, and the Bears have plenty of additional weapons on offense. 

 

Problem is Gabriel, Miller, Cohen, etc. aren't going to hit a home run every week. I think those three in particular will be highly volatile, with great games and poor games thrown in. Cohen problably has the best floor because of getting some number of carries, but this offense was made to have some pretty strong YAC ability with those three, and Cohen/Gabriel/Miller/anybody else can't get any more yards or points if one of them just runs around and takes it to the house. 

 

 

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12 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Or more accurately one of the top 3 offenses.

Yes, a couple others snuck by the Falcons. That said, the Bears were 2nd to last in scoring and dead last in passing yards. Even with improvement this year, they are not supporting a lot of fantasy starters. 

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11 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I think you'll regret that. If Cohen doesn't at least put up low end RB2 numbers in PPR, I'll be very surprised. 

Rb2 means somewhere between rb13 and rb24 in most leagues. Not sure the Bears support 2 of the top 24 rbs in the league. More likely a dice roll and game flow dependent rb. 

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37 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

Rb2 means somewhere between rb13 and rb24 in most leagues. Not sure the Bears support 2 of the top 24 rbs in the league. More likely a dice roll and game flow dependent rb. 

The 22nd, 23rd, and 24th RBs last season were Tevin Coleman, Buck Allen, and Marshawn Lynch. Cohen is better than that even if his role doesn't increase a ton. 

 

If the crappy Ravens can have 2 top 24 RBs (including Buck fricken Allen), then Cohen is a lock for top 20. 

Edited by ajs723

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37 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

Rb2 means somewhere between rb13 and rb24 in most leagues. Not sure the Bears support 2 of the top 24 rbs in the league. More likely a dice roll and game flow dependent rb. 

 

Cohen was RB29 last year and he was on a terrible offense. It’s not really that crazy in PPR if he’s being used in a versatile role

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I don't believe in the bears, feel free to disagree with me. I won't be mad. To each their own. 

 

I'll check back in toward the end of the season and see how it's going for them. I won't be shocked though when the worst team in the NFC North is a 4 win team. 

 

Excessively running the football made the Cowboys trash can defense look serviceable in 2016. Let's see what this Bears D looks like when they go from running and controlling the football 35+ times a game to asking mitch to throw 35+ times a game and having to defend a lot of short fields. 

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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8 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I do agree with this strongly btw^^

 

I think this offense has all the potential in the world. If someone more pessimistic wants to argue downsides and floors, those are all fair arguments as well. But this is a cap-less offense. There is no ceiling. There's no reason if Trubisky makes the proper advancements, which is a massive MASSIVE IF, that this offense couldn't be as good theoretically as just about any offense in football. I mean they have all the pieces and all the proper personnel and now, at least IMO, the proper offensive scheme mindset to make things work in the modern NFL. AR has all the talent of a WR1, and the Bears have plenty of additional weapons on offense. 

 

Problem is Gabriel, Miller, Cohen, etc. aren't going to hit a home run every week. I think those three in particular will be highly volatile, with great games and poor games thrown in. Cohen problably has the best floor because of getting some number of carries, but this offense was made to have some pretty strong YAC ability with those three, and Cohen/Gabriel/Miller/anybody else can't get any more yards or points if one of them just runs around and takes it to the house. 

 

 

 

You sound like a fan to me. 

 

Not sure I can get behind a lot of this. 

 

It's different though, I'll give you that. It's not the same team as it was in 2017. Different is as far as I'm willing to go at this time. 

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43 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

You sound like a fan to me. 

 

Not sure I can get behind a lot of this. 

 

It's different though, I'll give you that. It's not the same team as it was in 2017. Different is as far as I'm willing to go at this time. 

 

Well do you want to make an actual argument as to what I’m wrong on... I’ve been almost completely accurate on the Bears he last few years... people are sleeping on this team. The elements are there. The talent is there. The youth is there.

 

What aspect of this team is poor to you? I’m very willing to have a discussion. I don’t think you know this roster very well,

no offense. 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

 

Excessively running the football made the Cowboys trash can defense look serviceable in 2016. Let's see what this Bears D looks like when they go from running and controlling the football 35+ times a game to asking mitch to throw 35+ times a game and having to defend a lot of short fields. 

 

Vic Fangios record as a DCo speaks for itself as does the personnel. Little reason to believe this is a bad defense, but if you want to offer examples of how this defense fails I’ll be happy to entertain you. 

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I don't believe in the bears, feel free to disagree with me. I won't be mad. To each their own. 

 

I'll check back in toward the end of the season and see how it's going for them. I won't be shocked though when the worst team in the NFC North is a 4 win team. 

 

Excessively running the football made the Cowboys trash can defense look serviceable in 2016. Let's see what this Bears D looks like when they go from running and controlling the football 35+ times a game to asking mitch to throw 35+ times a game and having to defend a lot of short fields. 

Again, if true, this is GREAT news for ARob and Cohen. If the Bears are a 4 win team, and their defense is trash, these two will feast. 

 

Look at the worst teams last season. Duke Johnson was a RB1 in PPR because that team was behind so much. Sterling Shepard put up elite numbers when he was healthy for the Giants (and Engram did when Shep was out). Hopkins and Miller were great for Houston, etc. 

 

It's really hard to be a team that's always losing, and not produce at least a couple good fantasy players. You have to truly have no talent. Robinson, Howard, and Cohen are all talented enough to produce on a trash team. 

Edited by ajs723

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10 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Again, if true, this is GREAT news for ARob and Cohen. If the Bears are a 4 win team, and their defense is trash, these two will feast. 

 

Look at the worst teams last season. Duke Johnson was a RB1 in PPR because that team was behind so much. Sterling Shepard put up elite numbers when he was healthy for the Giants (and Engram did when Shep was out). Hopkins and Miller were great for Houston, etc. 

 

It's really hard to be a team that's always losing, and not produce at least a couple good fantasy players. You have to truly have no talent. Robinson, Howard, and Cohen are all talented enough to produce on a trash team. 

 

It's for these reasons I'm high on Cohen going into 2018. 

 

I'm still not sold on Arob. However I believe his ADP is priced right around where he should go. For better or worse I'll probably pass on him though. Kevin white, although a ghost the last few years, still exists and will be on his potential last NFL chance this season. I'm interested to see if he can play more than 2 games and see if he amounts to anything. Training camp will probably answer some of those questions. 

 

Regardless, I'll be joining you and whoever else on the Cohen train. 

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14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Again, if true, this is GREAT news for ARob and Cohen. If the Bears are a 4 win team, and their defense is trash, these two will feast. 

 

Look at the worst teams last season. Duke Johnson was a RB1 in PPR because that team was behind so much. Sterling Shepard put up elite numbers when he was healthy for the Giants (and Engram did when Shep was out). Hopkins and Miller were great for Houston, etc. 

 

It's really hard to be a team that's always losing, and not produce at least a couple good fantasy players. You have to truly have no talent. Robinson, Howard, and Cohen are all talented enough to produce on a trash team. 

They lost a lot of one possession games last year, and still could this season...not exactly a scenario of desperately playing "catch-up"

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1 minute ago, psygolf said:

They lost a lot of one possession games last year, and still could this season...not exactly a scenario of desperately playing "catch-up"

That's fair, but Dwight's point isn't that the Bears will lose a bunch of close games. His point is that they'll be utter trash. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

That's fair, but Dwight's point isn't that the Bears will lose a bunch of close games. His point is that they'll be utter trash. 

It's not a very sharp point

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