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Tarik Cohen 2018 Outlook

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23 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Also, don't forget that the Bears might throw 100 more passes this season. 

6 more passes a game added to a total that will be spread thinner across the board.

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24 minutes ago, psygolf said:

6 more passes a game added to a total that will be spread thinner across the board.

Okay, let's break this down. Assume, 550 passes this season. 

 

Even being generous, we could say:

 

120 targets for ARob

100 targets for Burton and Shaheen

75 targets for Gabriel

75 targets for Miller

50 targets for Howard and other RBs

50 targets for all other scraps

 

That leaves 80 targets for Cohen (if my math is accurate). And that's only at league average passing volume, and assuming the ball is spread around a lot! 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Okay, let's break this down. Assume, 550 passes this season. 

 

Even being generous, we could say:

 

120 targets for ARob

100 targets for Burton and Shaheen

75 targets for Gabriel

75 targets for Miller

50 targets for Howard and other RBs

50 targets for all other scraps

 

That leaves 80 targets for Cohen (if my math is accurate). And that's only at league average passing volume, and assuming the ball is spread around a lot! 

 

 

 

 

 

I doubt White gets fewer than 50 targets if healthy.

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

I doubt White gets... healthy.

;)

 

Honestly though, if White is healthy and contributes, then he's obviously cutting into either Gabriel's or Miller's targets. 

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I doubt White gets fewer than 50 targets if healthy.

 

Maybe, but for one, if healthy is a big deal, and for two, he has never successfully learned how to play assignment football, and this team is trying to compete, and that won't be acceptable with Matt Nagy. I agree he has a huge leg up. All he has to do is obey assignments. But if he shows to still be inept in camp I wouldn't be shocked if he were benched more often than many expect. 

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On 5/19/2018 at 9:18 PM, psygolf said:

It takes 2 seconds to look it up...you obviously didn't find the #s you thought you'd see.

Actually when I say  " Without looking" that's exactly what I do...I don't look.

 

But since you seem so concerned what did you find out ? Was I right or was I wrong ?

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7 hours ago, howlin' 2 said:

Actually when I say  " Without looking" that's exactly what I do...I don't look.

 

But since you seem so concerned what did you find out ? Was I right or was I wrong ?

I'm sure you've done the math by now...you're just looking for a petty argument now.

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7 hours ago, psygolf said:

I'm sure you've done the math by now...you're just looking for a petty argument now.

Actually not, but since I'm piqued to know the exact number now it turns out quite the opposite of what you supposed.

 

The numbers support my assumption. Although not quite as strongly as I initially thought. KC avg 61.1 which is lower than assumed. However Chicago was abysmal (as suspected) @ 58.4 .

 

Down the stretch it was more pronounced @ 64 - 58 as the season went on . Where it was really bad was the Bears were the only team to avg under 60 plays @ home. Get this ... 53 & change :o. That's what I'm remembering some ridiculous play calling .

 

Three plays a game isn't major but I sure expect the Bears to run at least ten more plays a game @ home this year. Therefore I expect to see an increase by Cohen even if they didn't totally change the offense.

 

By the way, I would expect the Chiefs to run more plays too as they finished 28th overall.  Would've guessed middle of the pack without looking (which this time I did ) ;)

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17 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

Actually not, but since I'm piqued to know the exact number now it turns out quite the opposite of what you supposed.

 

The numbers support my assumption. Although not quite as strongly as I initially thought. KC avg 61.1 which is lower than assumed. However Chicago was abysmal (as suspected) @ 58.4 .

 

Down the stretch it was more pronounced @ 64 - 58 as the season went on . Where it was really bad was the Bears were the only team to avg under 60 plays @ home. Get this ... 53 & change :o. That's what I'm remembering some ridiculous play calling .

 

Three plays a game isn't major but I sure expect the Bears to run at least ten more plays a game @ home this year. Therefore I expect to see an increase by Cohen even if they didn't totally change the offense.

 

By the way, I would expect the Chiefs to run more plays too as they finished 28th overall.  Would've guessed middle of the pack without looking (which this time I did ) ;)

I just didn't feel it necessary to get into a semantic battle over KC running "quite a few more" plays than the Bear last year, as you had posted.

 

Happy that we're all back up to speed on the real #s.

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

I just didn't feel it necessary to get into a semantic battle over KC running "quite a few more" plays than the Bear last year, as you had posted.

 

Happy that we're all back up to speed on the real #s.

It's not just the numbers of plays, it's the quality of plays.

 

The Bears were almost literally going entire games doing nothing but: Howard run on 1st down, Howard run and 2nd down, throw on 3rd down. Rinse. Repeat. 

 

Even if the number of plays doesn't go up exponentially, quality playcalling is a boon to skill player production. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Even if the number of plays doesn't go up exponentially, quality playcalling is a boon to skill player production. 

I've already posted that his touches probably won't go up to a new level/tier...but his yards per catch should rise to 8-10 yds.

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

I've already posted that his touches probably won't go up to a new level/tier...but his yards per catch should rise to 8-10 yds.

Okay, let me ask you this. What would you say to these projections for Cohen?

 

100 carries: 400-500 rushing yards.

60 receptions. 500-600 receiving yards. 

6-8 total TDs (rushing, receiving and return game.)

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Okay, let me ask you this. What would you say to these projections for Cohen?

 

100 carries: 400-500 rushing yards.

60 receptions. 500-600 receiving yards. 

6-8 total TDs (rushing, receiving and return game.)

It would take injuries to reach those #s

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5 minutes ago, psygolf said:

It would take injuries to reach those #s

87 carries last season.

53 catches last season. 

 

You don't think his numbers go up at all? I'm only predicting 13 more carries and 7 more receptions for the whole season. 

 

If not, do you expect virtually the same numbers, or do you think his volume will go down?

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22 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

87 carries last season.

53 catches last season. 

 

You don't think his numbers go up at all? I'm only predicting 13 more carries and 7 more receptions for the whole season. 

 

If not, do you expect virtually the same numbers, or do you think his volume will go down?

It took a lot of injuries last year for him to hit those numbers last year.   Nobody knows a damn thing yet, so it's foolish to trumpet Cohen at this point.  The only # I'm comfortable projecting for him is his yards per catch should go up...and if it doesn't > he'll barely see the field.

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7 minutes ago, psygolf said:

It took a lot of injuries last year for him to hit those numbers last year.   Nobody knows a damn thing yet, so it's foolish to trumpet Cohen at this point.  The only # I'm comfortable projecting for him is his yards per catch should go up...and if it doesn't > he'll barely see the field.

Fair enough. I'm expecting Cohen to earn a Sproles/Woodhead like pass catching role... Time will tell. 

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On 5/20/2018 at 6:25 AM, psygolf said:

I cannot bank on him even getting the same amount of targets this year until the receiver totem pole is shown...too many faces to add.

I don’t have concern about him matching last years targets, I don’t see it being unreasonable to think he has a shot at seeing the third most targets (only behind Robinson and whoever is the WR2). Now rushes could be a stat that sees a reduction. I can see a Theo Riddick type year (been a top 26 PPR finisher last three seasons). That’s why I say top 30 as I don’t see him getting as many rushes as Riddick has the last couple years but will be in line to catch more passes. 

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27 minutes ago, The Three Reynolds said:

I don’t have concern about him matching last years targets, I don’t see it being unreasonable to think he has a shot at seeing the third most targets (only behind Robinson and whoever is the WR2). Now rushes could be a stat that sees a reduction. I can see a Theo Riddick type year (been a top 26 PPR finisher last three seasons). That’s why I say top 30 as I don’t see him getting as many rushes as Riddick has the last couple years but will be in line to catch more passes. 

Burton, Gabriel, Shaheen & Miller should average more yds per catch, with comparable catch rates & ability to find space.

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21 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Burton, Gabriel, Shaheen & Miller should average more yds per catch, with comparable catch rates & ability to find space.

I don’t disagree with you on yards per catch for any of those players. With that, I Only see two players you listed (Burton and whoever ends up WR2) getting more targets. Even then I won’t be surprised if Cohen has more or equal to Burton (why I think he can have third most targets).

 

 

Edited by The Three Reynolds

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32 minutes ago, The Three Reynolds said:

I don’t disagree with you on yards per catch for any of those players. With that, I Only see two players you listed (Burton and whoever ends up WR2) getting more targets. Even then I won’t be surprised if Cohen has more or equal to Burton (why I think he can have third most targets).

 

 

Why would you target a receiver that gives you the lesser production more?

Edited by psygolf

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28 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Why would you target a receiver that gives you the lesser production more?

I could easily be misunderstanding what you are trying to achieve with this last response (I do that a lot?). Just looking last year with the Chiefs, Hunt (RB) was targeted the third most on the team (behind Hill and Kelce) and one target better then Wilson and a large gap to any other player. His (Hunt) yard per reception was 9th best, compared to all players who was targeted. You will have to ask Matt Nagy or was it Andy Reid calling the plays (I don’t know) why he or they want that??‍♂️.

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10 hours ago, The Three Reynolds said:

I could easily be misunderstanding what you are trying to achieve with this last response (I do that a lot?). Just looking last year with the Chiefs, Hunt (RB) was targeted the third most on the team (behind Hill and Kelce) and one target better then Wilson and a large gap to any other player. His (Hunt) yard per reception was 9th best, compared to all players who was targeted. You will have to ask Matt Nagy or was it Andy Reid calling the plays (I don’t know) why he or they want that??‍♂️.

If you want to mix in bench players we will get nowhere...plus, I doubt Hunt's catch rate was 9th on the team.

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This is what's out of tune in the '18 PreSeason Tarik Trumpet...

 

The 4-8 extra times max the Bears will pass per game this year are automatically being given (by some in this thread) to Cohen, who will probably not even be on the field for most of those plays.

Edited by psygolf

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38 minutes ago, psygolf said:

This is what's out of tune in the '18 PreSeason Tarik Trumpet...

 

The 4-8 extra times max the Bears will pass per game this year are automatically being given (by some in this thread) to Cohen, who will probably not even be on the field for most of those plays.

That logic doesn't work though. This isn't the same team as last year. If they had brought back all the same pieces, but were planning to throw the ball more, then I'd see your point. However, nothing from what the Bears did last season is relevant. This team may as well not be called the Bears. 

 

In other words, it makes no sense to base Cohen's projections on any Bears stats from 2017. I could just as easily point out the 93 targets that Duke Johnson got, or the 110 that Alvin Kamara got, or the 121 that CMC got, and use that as the basis for my Cohen projections. 

 

Keep in mind that Pace comes from New Orleans. His dream for this offense was to mirror what the Saints did at their peak. There's no reason to believe that, if used in the Sproles role, Cohen can't be a high end PPR RB2, if not better. It's not a lock, but nothing in fantasy is a lock. I don't think the hype is undeserved though. 

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I'm not a big fan of over-drafting RBs that rely on big plays or big games to warrant their fantasy value. Cohen might very well end up as a solid RB2 this year, but I can't justify drafting him over 4th, 5th, 6th round RBs who at least have a shot at being "the guy" like Drake, Guice, Miller, or Collins.

 

I would however be interested in drafting him above the scat-back/change of pace guys whose ADPs are currently just above his like Coleman, Lewis, Thompson. 

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