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Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

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To anyone who follows him on Instagram, how many Bears photos are we talking here? I just checked his page and he only has 15 posts total going back to 2012. So if he only deleted a a couple pictures it seems like less of a big deal.

 

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I’ve never understood the desire or the rumors of Howard being traded.  Sure he can’t catch, but he’s a very talented runner.  He averaged 4.1 against a stacked box in 2017.

 

If a trade happens it could be a Cooks like trade.  In other words, the Bears don’t want to pay him...

He's under a cheap contract for 2 more years, and not a malcontent...not a Cooks situation at all.

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I would be shocked if got traded.  He was the only thing that really worked last year and gives them something to fall back on if Trubisky struggles.

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Well, he's in year 3 of his rookie deal, and just about nobody gets extended with a full two seasons to go, short of all-world guys, which he isnt.   So, its not money, unless Howard is demanding a raise now for whatever reason. 

 

If he's still there post-draft, he's a Bear.   The odds of something doing down after that are pretty slim.  

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45 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

I would be shocked if got traded.  He was the only thing that really worked last year and gives them something to fall back on if Trubisky struggles.

 

He might not be a great fit for Nagy’s offense and the Bears might like a RB in the draft better. 

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There's a reason his name keeps popping up in these rumors. 

 

Look at Sony Michel as a replacement.  I think he has a player comp to Kareem Hunt (IMO, just based on watching him last year).

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I wish they would feature Cohen.  Just feels like he could handle a much bigger load than people expect he could due to his size.

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Howard + 8 for giants 2 and BAM! Bears get Barkley 

 

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18 minutes ago, milesberg said:

I wish they would feature Cohen.  Just feels like he could handle a much bigger load than people expect he could due to his size.

I agree the Bear can and should get Cohen more involved, but Cohen + Howard are a good pairing.

 

When a defense switches from a 3-4 to a 4-3 (etc) some guys become a poor “fit” and should be traded.  I don’t buy into that philosophy on offense (as much),  they need to make the best of what they have.  Being inflexible = lazy.  Good playmakers on offense shouldn’t be traded, especially on the Bears where talent is scarce.

 

 

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

Well, he's in year 3 of his rookie deal, and just about nobody gets extended with a full two seasons to go, short of all-world guys, which he isnt.   So, its not money, unless Howard is demanding a raise now for whatever reason. 

 

If he's still there post-draft, he's a Bear.   The odds of something doing down after that are pretty slim.  

Cooks was being traded at the same time (in the rookie contract)...

 

I still think money would be the biggest motivation.  For example, the Raiders could want to cut Lynch...

 

Gruden might not like Lynch’s activism, and might think he’s overpaid, etc.  

 

The Raiders wouldn’t need to pay Howard for 2 years, and they need cash for the rebuild.

I’m just trying to do the mental gymnastics of making a Howard trade make sense.

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Cooks was being traded at the same time (in the rookie contract)...

 

I still think money would be the biggest motivation.  For example, the Raiders could want to cut Lynch...

 

Gruden might not like Lynch’s activism, and might think he’s overpaid, etc.  

 

The Raiders wouldn’t need to pay Howard for 2 years, and they need cash for the rebuild.

I’m just trying to do the mental gymnastics of making a Howard trade make sense.

 

 

 

 

I think the only logic is that Nagy doesnt think he fits, and that he might have value now.....whereas next offseason he wont if he gets limited and takes a backseat to Cohen or a new rookie.    Still, what's the most they're getting for him?  Ajayi type of return?  I guess its better than nothing.

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3rd - 5th rounder on the trade market. 

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22 hours ago, seanismorris said:

Cooks was being traded at the same time (in the rookie contract)...

 

I still think money would be the biggest motivation.  For example, the Raiders could want to cut Lynch...

 

Gruden might not like Lynch’s activism, and might think he’s overpaid, etc.  

 

The Raiders wouldn’t need to pay Howard for 2 years, and they need cash for the rebuild.

I’m just trying to do the mental gymnastics of making a Howard trade make sense.

 

 

 

Jordan Howard is much too young and dynamic to be on Gruden's radar.

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4 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I'm anxious to start evaluating Howard, but too much depends on the draft here.  Just have to wait.

Where would you take him now?

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3 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Where would you take him now?

 

Don't flame me (I said I don't have a real handle at the moment), but in PPR (which is all I play) after McKinnon, McCaffrey and Mixon, but before Hyde and Chris Thompson.  As you can tell, I have real doubts about whether Howard fits in at this juncture. 

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3 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Don't flame me (I said I don't have a real handle at the moment), but in PPR (which is all I play) after McKinnon, McCaffrey and Mixon, but before Hyde and Chris Thompson.  As you can tell, I have real doubts about whether Howard fits in at this juncture. 

lol I wouldn't flame you for an opinion.

 

Thats fair as I mm not sure what this offense is going to be like. I'd take a shot somewhere in the 3rd but he likely won't be there 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

lol I wouldn't flame you for an opinion.

 

Thats fair as I mm not sure what this offense is going to be like. I'd take a shot somewhere in the 3rd but he likely won't be there 

 

Right now, this offense is the biggest wild card in the league in my opinion.  Even harder to predict than Cleveland's IMO.

 

Personally, I believe that Trubisky is a better QB than folks here give him credit for, and if Nagy is any good, he'll mine that.  With so many quality RB's with pass chops in this draft, Howard's days could really be numbered.  OTOH, if Howard improves his own pass chops, then he becomes the front-runner with a chance at a real decent year, just like Hyde delivered in SF, even though it was obvious to all that Hyde wasn't a perfect fit for what Shanahan ultimately wants to do at the RB position.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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I like the Hyde/Howard comparison.   Its easy to see a path to success for Howard this year- o line is decent, the offense is further along with better passing game weapons, and the coach has to be an upgrade over Fox, right?   Its certainly fair to think that Howard is unwanted/not a fit for what they want to do, but if August comes, and no high draft picks are here, and its still just Howard and Cohen, I'm comfortable with Howard as an RB2      

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In most leagues, Jordan Howard was either an RB1 or a few points away as a high end RB2 last year on a terrible team, with a poor, predictable offense and defenses selling out to stop Jordan Howard.

 

In 2018, the team should be better overall, have a better coach, the offense will have more weapons and be much less predictable. Unless something significant changes, Howard should be a lock to finish as an RB1 in 2018. 

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2 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

In most leagues, Jordan Howard was either an RB1 or a few points away as a high end RB2 last year on a terrible team, with a poor, predictable offense and defenses selling out to stop Jordan Howard.

 

In 2018, the team should be better overall, have a better coach, the offense will have more weapons and be much less predictable. Unless something significant changes, Howard should be a lock to finish as an RB1 in 2018. 

 

X2

 

  I don’t understand all this rb2 talk.   In 2016, He was a top 5 rb in a shortened rookie season where he was a backup for 4-5 weeks.   In 2017, he barely missed out as a Rb1 while dealing with a team in disarray and a nagging shoulder injury.   He doesn’t have to “improve his catching chops”-  just stay healthy.    They are going to ride this hoss to the tune of 20+ touches a game.    

 

Rb1 is his FLOOR 

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Run run pass punt was the equation last year. Hoping this upcoming year they throw in some curveballs

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48 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

X2

 

  I don’t understand all this rb2 talk.   In 2016, He was a top 5 rb in a shortened rookie season where he was a backup for 4-5 weeks.   In 2017, he barely missed out as a Rb1 while dealing with a team in disarray and a nagging shoulder injury.   He doesn’t have to “improve his catching chops”-  just stay healthy.    They are going to ride this hoss to the tune of 20+ touches a game.    

 

Rb1 is his FLOOR 

 

In preseason, I think its very easy to see 12-15 guys who can outpoint Howard if healthy.   Once the draft is done we'll likely have a couple rookies in that mix.     The key is who will survive the grind.    Howard was 13th, I think, in PPR last year simply by playing 16 games while guys like Zeke and DJ didn't.     

 

Now, they're back, and most of the RB1's from last year still loom, Barkley's coming in hot, McKinnon has a clear path to monster touches.    Cook is back.  Mixon and Drake have the potential to see their volume increase heavily.     So, i dont quite agree that Howard's floor is RB1, only because I think we're in a boon for RB's this year.   There's smoke to this Cohen thing, and its fair to fade him a bit for it.   Just saying I see both sides here.  

 

Reiterating though, I do like Howard, starting to see value here in the right draft slot.   I think he's a good back and can really bust out if things fall the right way, and I think i'll get him once to see if I'm right.    We could see 15-16 guys producing what we'd accept as RB1 production.   If that happens, the owner who gets the cheapest of that group is the one who wins.  

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Posted (edited)

Some buzz swirling around Howard's status with the team.  Assuming they don't draft someone and he's still the guy...

 

Something to look out for is that Nagy may completely go away from him in games.  Reading more about him (interviews and analysis), I'm learning that, coming from the Reid coaching tree, he is very likely to focus on matchups any given week.  Taking what the defense gives you.  If there is something to exploit, he will exploit it.  Like Reid, he may even do that at the expense of the starting RB.

 

The first game where he owned playcalling in KC last year, Hunt only had 12 carries I think.  That was against the Jets, who I think were decent at stopping the run.  The next 3 games, he had over 30 carries (or something like that).

 

So yes, Hunt's volume skyrocketed with Nagy.  But the lesson I take from that isn't necessarily that Howard will get loaded with volume.  Maybe instead the lesson is that Nagy will try to exploit matchups.  I'm not sure, just something to watch.

 

This could mean some monster games are in store for Howard.  However, I worry if the first game where he faces a stout front 7, his volume will decrease dramatically.  MAYBE...

 

Just something to monitor, again, assuming he's the guy.  We'll maybe need to play weekly guessing games moving forward if this risk becomes real.  I certainly won't panic when/if it happens, but good info to hold onto about Nagy's tendencies.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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Personally I think the amount of improvement in this offense under Nagy will more than offset the risks associated.   Give me 18-20 touches including most GL work and he’s a top 10 rb.    That seems a reasonable expectation.   

 

They were very bad last season and the amount of heavy boxes Howard faced was suffocating at times.     

 

 

“Fox's offense, which was led by OC Dowell Loggains, ranked third-to-last in the NFL with just 287.4 yards per game. It averaged a league-worst 175.7 passing yards per game and a league-low 473 passing attempts. That led to Howard seeing an awful lot of opposing jerseys at the line of scrimmage, which is something he's hoping changes with the new coaching staff.

"I felt great about that because last year we were pretty much basic and everybody knew what we were going do, they knew what was coming pretty much every play so it was pretty easy for them to stop us," Howard said when asked for his reaction to Nagy saying the Bears' new offense would be fun. "Now, I feel like we're going to be a lot more creative and have defenses off balance."

 

As offensive coordinator in Kansas City last season, Nagy led a Chiefs attack that (for most of the season, at least) utilized creative play-calling to push quarterback Alex Smith, tight end Travis Kelce, running back Kareem Hunt and receiver Tyreek Hillall to career years.”

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000913143/article/howard-hoping-nagy-can-change-basic-bears-offense%3fnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%3Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%3Dstory&env=&pageKeyValues=prtnr%3Daround-the-league%3Bteam%3Dchi%3Bconf%3Dnfc%3Bdvsn%3Dncn%3Bplyr%3Dalexander_smith%3Bplyr%3Dtravis_kelce%3Bplyr%3Dtyreek_hill&p.ct=Around+the+NFL&p.adsm=false&p.tcm=%23fff&p.bgc1m=%230964bf&p.bgc2m=%23053a74&sr=amp

 

 

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