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Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

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3 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Only 5 RBs averaged 18+ points per game in PPR last year, which was Gurley, Bell, Kamara, Hunt, and Gordon. If you think Cohen slots into that group ROS (basically a 1st round elite RB) then you're delusional. You've also admitted he will only likely hope to get 8-10 carries plus receiving work, so how efficient is he going to be with 12-15 touches? The RBs on that 18+ ppg list from last year had double that amount of touches!

 

Regarding my earlier comment about PR/KR points, you don't have to get so defensive - I never said you shouldn't play in such a league. But you have to know the large majority of leagues don't count them. If you play in a custom / non standard league good for you, value players in that league however makes sense to you, but you can't act like that's the norm. And even with KR/PR, I still don't see how Cohen scored an extra 5 points in week 4 in your league with only 14 return yards. 

 

I just don't see how your usage estimates match up with your projected points. The math doesn't add up. 

 

One last thing I wanted to touch on is your insistence that Howard is such a horrible pass catcher - he worked a lot on it over the off season, put in a lot of extra time, and so far has caught 10 of 12. Do you not think Howard could have improved? I don't think Howard is going to be the second coming of Devonta Freeman or anything, but I certainly think early results have shown he's improved from his near-last ranking from years before. 

 

The reality likely is that, outside of very obvious matchup plays for each running style, Cohen and Howard likely eat into each other's work enough to really frustrate fantasy owners, and cap each other's upside. 

 

#OwnsHowardStock

 

#OnAllSquads

 

Cohen coming off a bye, checking in at RB22 in my nuthouse 14 tea,m PPR kick return yards score league. 

 

I'll make ya a deal, Cohen doesn't finish Top 12 at the position for the year, I'll give you props in my sig for life, but If he finishes top 12 in my league, I get props in yours. 

 

We can decide on language later. 

 

He 's got 61.8 points total to date and is averaging 15.8 a game. 

 

No hard feelings If you want to pass, all bets are action unless Cohen misses two games or more at my discretion. :ph34r:

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6 hours ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

 

#OwnsHowardStock

 

#OnAllSquads

 

That's cute, but I think I've pretty plainly said that I think Howard will be in a timeshare and isn't going to finish as high as everyone hoped.  My whole argument has been that your predictions for Cohen aren't realistic and the math doesn't add up, and your rebuttal to that is #OwnsHowardStock?  How about addressing how many yards per touch Cohen would need to finish with 18+ PPG on 15 touches per game?

 

 

6 hours ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

Cohen coming off a bye, checking in at RB22 in my nuthouse 14 tea,m PPR kick return yards score league. 

 

I'll make ya a deal, Cohen doesn't finish Top 12 at the position for the year, I'll give you props in my sig for life, but If he finishes top 12 in my league, I get props in yours. 

 

We can decide on language later. 

 

He 's got 61.8 points total to date and is averaging 15.8 a game. 

 

No hard feelings If you want to pass, all bets are action unless Cohen misses two games or more at my discretion. :ph34r:

 

I might be interested if you want to talk about a standard scoring system, like PPR or Standard, or at least could give some details on the scoring settings in your league.  But you're clearly using some out of the box scoring here, because in my full point PPR Cohen is RB30 at 12.7 a game and in my 0.5 point PPR with return yards he's still only RB28.  So how many points are given for return yards to bump him up to RB22?  Lockett must be a top-5 WR.  I'd probably have some more love for Cohen too if he somehow produced 5 points off 14 return yards in Week 4.

 

Also props on the bar slowly moving lower.  Last post he was going to average 18-20 points per game ROS, which would put him as a top 5/6 RB in PPR by last year's scoring, and now you're just looking for top 12 (about 12-13 ppg last year).  

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4 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

That's cute, but I think I've pretty plainly said that I think Howard will be in a timeshare and isn't going to finish as high as everyone hoped.  My whole argument has been that your predictions for Cohen aren't realistic and the math doesn't add up, and your rebuttal to that is #OwnsHowardStock?  How about addressing how many yards per touch Cohen would need to finish with 18+ PPG on 15 touches per game?

 

 

 

I might be interested if you want to talk about a standard scoring system, like PPR or Standard, or at least could give some details on the scoring settings in your league.  But you're clearly using some out of the box scoring here, because in my full point PPR Cohen is RB30 at 12.7 a game and in my 0.5 point PPR with return yards he's still only RB28.  So how many points are given for return yards to bump him up to RB22?  Lockett must be a top-5 WR.  I'd probably have some more love for Cohen too if he somehow produced 5 points off 14 return yards in Week 4.

 

Also props on the bar slowly moving lower.  Last post he was going to average 18-20 points per game ROS, which would put him as a top 5/6 RB in PPR by last year's scoring, and now you're just looking for top 12 (about 12-13 ppg last year).  

You and Grid Assassin budding rivalry is wildly entertaining to follow.  I feel like this is  the promotional hype lead-up to a PPV prize fight. Props in the sig for life is high stakes!

 

FWIW, Keep in mind that Cohen's RB28 rank in our scoring system is also weighing into account him already having a bye week, which most the names ranked above him have not yet.  If you add another week of his average, 14 - 15 pt, then he is more of the RB15.  

 

Thats my two cents....now as you were....

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, LionKid90 said:

No one has answered my question because you know the answer and you'll look wrong. 

 

Who has the better offense, Nagy or Fox?

 

Who has the better players?

 

2017 starters:

QB - Mike Glennon for the first 4 games

WR - Josh Bellamy and Tanner Gentry

TE - Dion Sims

LB - Sam Acho and Christian Jones

PK - Connor Barth (69% FG rate)

 

2018 starters:

QB - sophomore Trubisky

WR - Allen Robinson and T. Gabriel

TE - T. Burton

LB - Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith

PK - Cody Parkey (90% FG rate)

 

I'm not saying Fox is better than Nagy like some people, but it's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison.  It's not the same team.  The team has improved the talent on the field quite immensely and with that comes higher expectations.  It's pretty hard to say Nagy's offense through 4 games has been definitively better than Fox's when Fox was rolling out players like Mike Glennon, Bellamy, Gentry, and Dion Sims.  

 

One thing I will echo that others have complained about regarding Nagy's offense is that he tries so hard to out-smart everyone he goes away from doing what has worked for decades.  Like get a lead and run out the clock on the ground.  So far this "being too cute" arguably cost them a win in Week 1, and might have cost them more wins had they not been playing bad teams like Arizona and TB.

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Miami is pretty good against the pass but have had trouble stopping the run.  And there has been a lot of smoke around Jordan Howard this week.  I could see Nagy designing a run-heavy gameplan featuring Howard.  

 

Also, Miami's QB is not playing well right now.  And Chicago's D is a notch above the Dolphins recent competition.  So we could see a lopsided score and some positive game script.  Yes we had that v. Tampa but Nagy wanted to build Trubs confidence so he kept doing what was working against the Bucs and ran up the score.

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32 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

Howard owners are going to be pissed again this week.

Bears fans too.

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Miami is pretty good against the pass but have had trouble stopping the run.  And there has been a lot of smoke around Jordan Howard this week.  I could see Nagy designing a run-heavy gameplan featuring Howard.  

 

Also, Miami's QB is not playing well right now.  And Chicago's D is a notch above the Dolphins recent competition.  So we could see a lopsided score and some positive game script.  Yes we had that v. Tampa but Nagy wanted to build Trubs confidence so he kept doing what was working against the Bucs and ran up the score.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

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41 minutes ago, F@ndemonium said:

FWIW, Keep in mind that Cohen's RB28 rank in our scoring system is also weighing into account him already having a bye week, which most the names ranked above him have not yet.  If you add another week of his average, 14 - 15 pt, then he is more of the RB15.  

 

This is true, but Gridiron stated his RB22 ranking was including the bye, so I just compared in the same way.  

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49 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Miami is pretty good against the pass but have had trouble stopping the run.  And there has been a lot of smoke around Jordan Howard this week.  I could see Nagy designing a run-heavy gameplan featuring Howard.  

 

Also, Miami's QB is not playing well right now.  And Chicago's D is a notch above the Dolphins recent competition.  So we could see a lopsided score and some positive game script.  Yes we had that v. Tampa but Nagy wanted to build Trubs confidence so he kept doing what was working against the Bucs and ran up the score.

Hoping you're right about the Howard part. Playing against Chicago's D, so hoping Tanny doesn't have a repeat performance of last week. 

 

But yeah...Howard is due.

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This is the week.  Jordan Howard is going to take a big step forward.

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1 hour ago, Kyle87 said:

Bears fans too.

 

The nature of sport is unpredictable from week to week, but the Bears have a lot of bad men on defense.  Probably like 6 pro bowlers, and that’s not even counting the hot shot rookie Roquan and the pass-rushing wild card Leonard Floyd.  And PFF seems to think that Bryce Callahan is the best nickel back in the league.  My guess is that people outside of Chicago don’t even know who he is.

 

This could have been a Top 5 defense without Mack.  I know that’s newsworthy if you’re not paying close attention.

 

So what’s in the forecast for Miami?  Doom.

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3 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

The nature of sport is unpredictable from week to week, but the Bears have a lot of bad men on defense.  Probably like 6 pro bowlers, and that’s not even counting the hot shot rookie Roquan and the pass-rushing wild card Leonard Floyd.  And PFF seems to think that Bryce Callahan is the best nickel back in the league.  My guess is that people outside of Chicago don’t even know who he is.

 

This could have been a Top 5 defense without Mack.  I know that’s newsworthy if you’re not paying close attention.

 

So what’s in the forecast for Miami?  Doom.

Yeah but if Mitch get's to throw it like 2 weeks ago I'd expect 2-3 turn-overs keeping the game real close.  I won't argue against their defense, they are the only reason this team has 2 of their wins and they worked hard to keep those games winnable considering Mitch's performance.

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Hard to gauge who pops out of this backfield this week. Just seems like everytime a RB in this situation is supposed to boom he ends up busting. Can we even be confident that Howard will be a focal point in the offense this week? 

 

And don't post any articles with coach-speak or some local sports journalist's opinion on how Howard should be used. That holds no weight and has mislead fantasy players this year 

Edited by Guwop

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6 minutes ago, Guwop said:

Hard to gauge who pops out of this backfield this week. Just seems like everytime a RB in this situation is supposed to boom he ends up busting. Can we even be confident that Howard will be a focal point in the offense this week? 

 

And don't post any articles with coach-speak or some local sports journalist's opinion on how Howard should be used. That holds no weight and has mislead fantasy players this year 

of course not, what a silly question

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13 minutes ago, Guwop said:

Hard to gauge who pops out of this backfield this week. Just seems like everytime a RB in this situation is supposed to boom he ends up busting. Can we even be confident that Howard will be a focal point in the offense this week? 

 

And don't post any articles with coach-speak or some local sports journalist's opinion on how Howard should be used. That holds no weight and has mislead fantasy players this year 

 

 

It's a nagy offense, there is no guarantee on which skills player will be the focal point week to week but there should be a trend on his preference of 2-3 players he likes to use the most.

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38 minutes ago, Guwop said:

Hard to gauge who pops out of this backfield this week. Just seems like everytime a RB in this situation is supposed to boom he ends up busting. Can we even be confident that Howard will be a focal point in the offense this week? 

 

And don't post any articles with coach-speak or some local sports journalist's opinion on how Howard should be used. That holds no weight and has mislead fantasy players this year 

 

No...I'll probably never be confident starting Howard.

 

For him to really have a good game, they have to be committed to the run.    And regardless of the game script, I just don't see Nagy ever pounding the ball for a full game.

I drafted him to be an every week starter and picked up guys late like Michele, Jones, etc. to be fill-ins.

 

Unfortunately,  Howard has not become the fill-in.

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I don’t follow the Dolphins at all but their defense has been very opportunistic with 10 interceptions so far and they shut out a hot Bengals offense on the road in the first half before Tannehill basically put them on the field the entire second half with 3 turnovers. Tampa had been carved by every team they played before the Bears game. If Trubisky comes out and does it again and the gameplan is centered around Cohen as the main back then maybe we ought to concede Howard won’t be much of a factor in this offense going forward. I think it needs to actually happen  before we reach that conclusion.

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[Once again: Some informed discussion of which Bears RB has the better outlook is fine here, but if you're just posting GIFs of Cohen in the Howard thread to get a rise out of people, you need to stop.

 

This means you, @The Gridiron Assassin.]

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[If your argument boils down to something that requires posting your individual league's scoring settings to settle, then it's not going to make for much of a useful discussion to anyone else who doesn't play in your league.]

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My bigger concern is that when he’s gotten volume he has not done much with it. The line’s run blocking may be a bigger culprit here than people are talking about.

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21 minutes ago, Magoo said:

My bigger concern is that when he’s gotten volume he has not done much with it. The line’s run blocking may be a bigger culprit here than people are talking about.

 

 

Having watched every game as a die hard,i can say that is certainly not the case. Its situational my friend, teams know bears are lookin to truck him up the middle when he comes on leading to a lower ypc

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6 minutes ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

 

Having watched every game as a die hard,i can say that is certainly not the case. Its situational my friend, teams know bears are lookin to truck him up the middle when he comes on leading to a lower ypc

 

Every time Howard gets the ball it feels like it's just a setup for an exotic play call for another skills player.

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Howard is a ball carrier, Cohen is a playmaker. They will both have their roles, but one can only assume that an offensive coach will be looking to execute his playmaker week to week, who also happens to be a nightmare matchup for just about any defense. 

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Cold weather.  Defensive slugfest.  Speedy but lightish defenders.  Howard time.

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