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ajs723

Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You are frequently wrong on rbs...this ^ makes bear fans happy.

As indicated by my selections of Gurley and Kamara last season and avoidance of Lynch, Miller, Ajayi, Blount, Mixon,  and others. I would like you to point where I’ve been wrong. Not saying I haven’t but you’re the one making this claim.

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Just now, Rolling Thunder said:

(anything is better than Fox)

 

 

This is the long and short of the optimism. 

 

That and, yes in terms of coaching, Nagy is a question mark. But part of a HC's job is to help breed culture, interest, and a feeling of success. Chicago is different right now. Halas Hall is different. Bears fans felt like they got a great HC simply because we know how much other teams wanted him. That much is a fact. We also know the pedigree of the staff he's put together. Whether the staff works out is the more important question, but as an executive to just recruit the interest he got, and not just in the Head Coaching, but in the Free Agency world as well. Yes money is hugely relevant, but I also believe GM Ryan Pace when he says he offered numerous FA WRs numerous FA contracts last year and they all turned him down. And I believe guys like Gabriel who say that they talked to Chiefs' friends to formulate an opinion. I can't believe for certain that his impact on Trubisky is positive, but I can say for certain that when Trubisky is geeked af on the podium talking about how he's following Helfrich's advice and getting "obsessed" with the QB position and... ya know... people who actually talk about "understanding an offense," and not pretend to be Bill Bellicheck with none of the accolade. 

 

Winning is the most important thing and consumes like 2/3's of the pie chart, but there's various things that Fox didn't do that Nagy is already doing and there's a reason why so much buzz about the Bears in the offseason is simply positive buzz about the relationship with the coaching staff. 

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21 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

didnt JH also play with a strained AC joint for half the season? 

 

And yes, I believe so. It was at least reported shoulder injury and I believe it was an AC. I dont' know when it started or stopped. Arguably it could've been effecting him all season. 

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14 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

As indicated by my selections of Gurley and Kamara last season and avoidance of Lynch, Miller, Ajayi, Blount, Mixon,  and others. I would like you to point where I’ve been wrong. Not saying I haven’t but you’re the one making this claim.

Apparently we BOTH have selective memory...I'm fine that you stumbled into Gurley & Kamara last year.

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10 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Apparently we BOTH have selective memory...I'm fine that you stumbled into Gurley & Kamara last year.

Didn't stumble into anything. You're the one that called me out all I asked was for examples. Obviously, i've been wrong. It's impossible to be always right in fantasy. However, you stating i'm frequently wrong is just not true. Especially last year when I got almost every single RB call correct. Again, feel free to cite examples of me being wrong and i'll gladly admit to it.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

I never put it on Howard. I really don’t care who’s fault it is actually. The reality doesn’t change that Howard is a two down back on a mediocre offense at best. 

I agree that last years offense was mediocre at best. Good thing we are in 2018 now

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

Right now the roster has Cohen, Cunningham, Mizzell, and Nall behind Howard.

 

So barring injury, Cohen is the only one who will split touches (and targets) with Howard?  Cunningham, Mizzell and Nall are depth placeholders exclusively?

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

So barring injury, Cohen is the only one who will split touches (and targets) with Howard?  Cunningham, Mizzell and Nall are depth placeholders exclusively?

 

 

That's not what I said. What I believe is that whatever role anyone not named Howard (and Nall if he cuts the roster) has is very much geared towards a COP. They may run inside occassionally, but it will be largely Howard getting the everything when it comes to short yardage. I think the roster is made for Howard to be there anytime you need him, and by that I mean I think he gets left in at the end of drives more than a lot of RBs. I don't think he gets vultured very often this year. I think he's been kept on the roster as a feature back over another player because they know how much of a horse he is. ANd I think establishing the run is vital to this offense.

 

I think every game starts with Howard. 

 

I think every game Howard plays he has a good shot at a TD. 

 

I think every game the Bears win is a huge game for Howard.

 

There's still ways, even in this formula, that Howard has a lot of bad games / bad season. But I truly believe this formula pretty damn strongly. 

 

By the last token, I think he's an RB2 similar to last year if the Bears are similarly talented. If they win 8 games I think he's a fringe RB1. If they win more he's an RB1. 

Edited by taobball

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

I agree that last years offense was mediocre at best. Good thing we are in 2018 now

Sure and I think it can be better just not all that better. I wouldn’t mind to pair Howard with one of the top end RBs who can make up for his production on those terrible weeks. His ADP is actually solid. I’d drop him like 4-5 spots and that’s it. My problem is the inconsistency. 

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Just now, Gohawks said:

Sure and I think it can be better just not all that better. I wouldn’t mind to pair Howard with one of the top end RBs who can make up for his production on those terrible weeks. His ADP is actually solid. I’d drop him like 4-5 spots and that’s it. My problem is the inconsistency. 

 

Ie what people said about a few playoff offenses at this time last year. 

 

Dont get me wrong I do think they end up more middle of the class. Upside is pretty substantial tho

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

That's not what I said. What I believe is that whatever role anyone not named Howard (and Nall if he cuts the roster) has is very much geared towards a COP. They may run inside occassionally, but it will be largely Howard getting the everything when it comes to short yardage. I think the roster is made for Howard to be there anytime you need him, and by that I mean I think he gets left in at the end of drives more than a lot of RBs. I don't think he gets vultured very often this year. I think he's been kept on the roster as a feature back over another player because they know how much of a horse he is. ANd I think establishing the run is vital to this offense.

 

I think every game starts with Howard. 

 

I think every game Howard plays he has a good shot at a TD. 

 

I think every game the Bears win is a huge game for Howard.

 

By the last token, I think he's an RB2 similar to last year if the Bears are similarly talented. If they win 8 games I think he's a fringe RB1. If they win more he's an RB1. 

 

Def agree that hes a fringe RB1 with risk of being an RB2 but potential to be a solid RB1.

 

If we look at what the bears did this off season:

- New offensive minded HC

- completely gutted and revamped their WR corp and added TE Burton

- added to their D

 

Just a high level look, but the Bears def should be able to move the ball better than they did last year which should allow them to stay more competitive. Trubisky was tossed into the fire and literally had nobody to throw to. Hes mobile and perhaps Nagy can tap into his talent.

 

Howard also cant be much worse at catching passes. supposedly hes been focusing on that this offseason so maybe he softens up the stone hands.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-the-best-and-worst-schedules-for-the-fantasy-running-backs

 

The bears also have the easiest RB schedule per PFF. I have no issues drafting Howard last 2nd/early 3rd especially with how the RB landscape is.

Edited by pascuccis1
extra data, typo
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1 minute ago, pascuccis1 said:

 

Def agree that hes a fringe RB1 with risk of being an RB2 but potential to be a solid RB1.

 

If we look at what the bears did this off season:

- New offensive minded HC

- completely gutted and revamped their WR corp and added TE Burton

- added to their D

 

Just a high level look, but the Bears def should be able to move the ball better than they did last year which should allow them to stay more competitive. Trubisky was tossed into the fire and literally had nobody to throw to. Hes mobile and perhaps Nagy can tap into his talent.

 

He also cant be much worse at catching passes. supposedly hes been focusing on that this offseason so maybe he softens up the stone hands.

 

What a bum.  He was only rb12 after a rb4 rookie campaign.  

1100 yards rushing- good for 6th in the league.  

And now they don’t have a trash offense.  

 

I’m seeing him go at the 2-3 turn- sometimes even late third.  

All day 

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

What a bum.  He was only rb12 after a rb4 rookie campaign.  

1100 yards rushing- good for 6th in the league.  

And now they don’t have a trash offense.  

 

I’m seeing him go at the 2-3 turn- sometimes even late third.  

All day 

 

agreed bro. in the mocks ive done, hes been usually surrounded by Drake, Mixon, Henry, from what I can mostly remember. sometimes jerrick but people have been aggressive on him, and usually has been gone during the mid second.

 

Henry is a fade for me.

 

I like Mixon but would take Howard over him.

 

Drake is a tough one to get a read on. he helped me win the finals with his hot stretch last year. im just get weary of Frank Gore and Ballage being there. No denying drakes talent tho, hes a complete stud, jus more concerned with Gase being retarded and not featuring him. 

 

All in all Howard is def worth it.

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9 minutes ago, pascuccis1 said:

 

agreed bro. in the mocks ive done, hes been usually surrounded by Drake, Mixon, Henry, from what I can mostly remember. sometimes jerrick but people have been aggressive on him, and usually has been gone during the mid second.

 

Henry is a fade for me.

 

I like Mixon but would take Howard over him.

 

Drake is a tough one to get a read on. he helped me win the finals with his hot stretch last year. im just get weary of Frank Gore and Ballage being there. No denying drakes talent tho, hes a complete stud, jus more concerned with Gase being retarded and not featuring him. 

 

All in all Howard is def worth it.

It’s basically the perfect setup.  Clear roles for both backs, and Howard will easily lead in carries plus GL.    275 carries last year sounds about right again...with more tds.

 

rb9-12 is my best guess. 

 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Sure and I think it can be better just not all that better. I wouldn’t mind to pair Howard with one of the top end RBs who can make up for his production on those terrible weeks. His ADP is actually solid. I’d drop him like 4-5 spots and that’s it. My problem is the inconsistency. 

Definitely fair. I really don't know what to think of this offense until we see preseason. I just don't think it can be anywhere near as stale as it was last year lol

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Jordan Howard plans to improve his pass-catching this year.

Howard has impressed as a ball-carrier (back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons) since arriving as a fifth-round pick in 2016, but continues to disappoint in the passing game with 14 drops over his past two seasons. With Tarik Cohen now at the Bears' disposal, Howard could be in danger of losing significant snaps under first-year head coach Matt Nagy. "It started being a problem in high school, just not having my hands in the right position," said the former Indiana Hoosier. "I didn’t work on it that much in college because we didn’t really throw to the backs that much. But I’m going to fix it." Howard is still in play as a mid-range RB2, but Cohen's presence certainly lowers his ceiling.

 

Not sure I like the sound of this or not. So torn on Howard this season, but no matter how I spin it, I can't see him getting less than 250 carries this season in an ascending offense with a creative coaching staff.  I'll take that in the 4th round PPR but 3rd is too rich for me.  

 

 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, SvanE42 said:

Jordan Howard plans to improve his pass-catching this year.

Howard has impressed as a ball-carrier (back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons) since arriving as a fifth-round pick in 2016, but continues to disappoint in the passing game with 14 drops over his past two seasons. With Tarik Cohen now at the Bears' disposal, Howard could be in danger of losing significant snaps under first-year head coach Matt Nagy. "It started being a problem in high school, just not having my hands in the right position," said the former Indiana Hoosier. "I didn’t work on it that much in college because we didn’t really throw to the backs that much. But I’m going to fix it." Howard is still in play as a mid-range RB2, but Cohen's presence certainly lowers his ceiling.

 

Not sure I like the sound of this or not. So torn on Howard this season, but no matter how I spin it, I can't see him getting less than 250 carries this season in an ascending offense with a creative coaching staff.  I'll take that in the 4th round PPR but 3rd is too rich for me.  

 

 

 

IMO I don't agree with a bit of the take. He could lose more snaps, but Cohen's just fundamentally not a back who's going to see 50% of snaps at the RB position. Not even close. And they don't ahve to take Howard out of the game to put Cohen at the slot. He's a borderline 2nd round pick for me in Standard leagues. He gets a bit of a knock in PPR, but unless your league scores Rushing TDs as less than 6, I don't think he falls out of the third for me. 

 

 

ESPN has him projected at 6 TDs through a full season. Howard has scored 15 TDs in two of the worst offenses in football the last two years. I consider that projection a farce. 

 

Inside 20 TDs in 2018:

Gurley -- 12 TDs (62 ATTs)

Bell -- 9 TDs (61 ATTs)

Ingram -- 9 TDs (33 ATTs)

Hyde -- 8 TDs (41 ATTs)

Howard -- 8 TDs (32 ATTs)

 

Gurley was the only RB to score significantly more TDs than Howard inside the 20, and did so on nearly twice as many touches. And Howard, between Trubisky/Inman/Wright/Bellamy, easily had the WORST outside threats, and easily saw some of the most stacked boxes. The closest comparable player for TDs and ATTs was Ingram... who OBVIOUSLY was seeing easier fronts with Brees/Thomas/everyone-else-affected-by-Brees. 

 

Like always, maybe I'm wrong. But there's few RBs (realistically none) going outside the first round that I think are more likely to put up 1000+/10 than Jordan Howard. ESPN projects him for closer to 1000/6, and the difference int he TDs I think is why I think Howard is going to be closer to a steal than anything. 

 

Howard has more outside threats, will see less pressure up the middle, has a great interior-OL, and I think is EASILY going to be the 1st-Line-of-Offense inside the 20.

 

I don't want any Bear more this year, even at price, than I want Jordan Howard. 

Edited by taobball
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I'd love him in standard but he was frustrating to own in ppr last year due to his vulnerability to game flow. Even though he was a strong RB2 he had a ton of volatility, I remember one week he had like 0 points and the next week had over 30. I like the offensive improvements but it'll ultimately come down to Trubinsky how big of a difference they make. It's tough to judge him after coming in midseason to an offense with virtually no talent but there are no excuses this year with the new personnel on the field and in the coaching staff. I think his 3rd round price tag is fair with so many questions with the RBs behind him although there is a ways to go before the season and I can see some of the rookies rising which could make Howard an even better value as he isn't the sexiest option especially in ppr but I predict him to still be effective and more consistent in what should be a more potent offense. 

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Posted (edited)

Something to consider: Howard had 276 carries last year, which is quite a bit.  It was a conservative offense.  It really wouldn't surprise me if that fell below 240.  Even if he catches a few balls, the better offense could be washed out by the fact that he's getting less carries.

 

Something else: Sitton is gone, and he was pretty good.  At least above average.

 

Something else: Nagy's limited exposure as playcaller saw a low rush % in neutral game scripts.  Are the Bears good enough now to have positive game scripts?

 

 

Edited by Lord_Varys

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Something to consider: Howard had 276 carries last year, which is quite a bit.  It was a conservative offense.  It really wouldn't surprise me if that fell below 240.  Even if he catches a few balls, the better offense could wash out by the fact that he's getting less carries.

 

Something else: Sitton is gone, and he was pretty good.  At least above average.

 

Something else: Nagy's limited exposure as playcaller saw a low rush % in neutral game scripts.  Are the Bears good enough now to have positive game scripts?

 

 

 

 

YPC and TDs should both be greatly improved even if he's suffering carries. Which I think will ultimately be a net positive. 

 

Howard suffered thru injuries and saw about as many stacked boxes as any RB in football last year while playing in a system that telegraphed Run & Pass simillarly to the way Gurley suffered in Fisher's system. And Howard still had over 4 YPC.

 

Maybe he does only get 240 Carries, but a projection of 1000 Yards only needs a 4.167 YPC, which isn't that much higher than his YPC last year. If I take his career average 4.6 YPC, he needs just 217-218 Carries, which I would consider a VERY conservative estimate. If we give him 240 at career average then that's 1104 yards, which is greater than most projections. 

 

Sitton is gone but they replaced him with an arguably first round talent in James Daniels. They still have Whitehair and Long in the interior which is one of the league's better tandems and has a good run blocking LT in Charles Leno. And Sitton was also a better graded pass blocker than run blocker. That isn't to say  he isn't a good run blocker, because he is, but as a whole I think the O-Line is top half. I think PFF will likely reflect that too. 

 

As for neutral situations-- I'm talking about Goal Line, where I expect Howard to score roughly 10 TDs this year. So 1100/10 out of my RB1/2 in the 3rd round is pretty acceptable to me. 

Edited by taobball
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11 hours ago, taobball said:

Inside 20 TDs in 2018:

Gurley -- 12 TDs (62 ATTs)

Bell -- 9 TDs (61 ATTs)

Ingram -- 9 TDs (33 ATTs)

Hyde -- 8 TDs (41 ATTs)

Howard -- 8 TDs (32 ATTs)

 

I don't want any Bear more this year, even at price, than I want Jordan Howard. 

 

Wanna just rephrase these in a bit of a different statistical sense. Firstly though, even though I haven't been accused of it, I'd just like to address my own biases. Yes, I am a Bears fan. But there is one Bear I want this year, and it's that simple. The fan in me wants to take a shot at AR, a talent I've liked since PSU, but I don't find that he even remotely stands out among the WRs listed among him. Cohen I like and think can be a solid PPR piece, but I'm not buying into the hype that he's going to be a fantasy stud really. I still think his role, like most others, will be inconsistent. Trey Burton is a TE with some fantasy hype. If I can get Burton in my last couple rounds of a standard sized league as my TE1 or even 2, I"ll do it. If anyone jumps him, which they usually do, I won't get Burton. 

 

But I love Howard. I've referred to him as this above, but I consider Howard "the first line of Offense" so to speak. Howard to me is the most important in making everything work. He's top 10 in RTDs, R. Yards, YPC, and Yards After Contact since his entrance into the league two years ago. Last year he suffered due to stacked boxes. But stacked boxes this year are going to be harder to come by. Nagy can use virtually the same personnel positionally, but instead of Howard seeing an 8 Man Box with Inman, Wright, Sims, and Zach Miller/Daniel Brown in a 2-WR, 2-TE set, he'll have AR, Gabriel/Anthony Miller, Shaheen, and Burton. Will they definitively be able to keep the box "un-stacked?" Maybe, maybe not. But I think it's more likely than not. And tempting Defenses to stack the box... saying "Hey, our QB is still a Sophomore who went 7/7 TD/INT last year, and we will run it up your bum until your defense is battered if you want to put quicker DBs on the field," to me, is still the most important part of the offense. The dichotomy between a strong, physical running game and a quick, efficient passing game. But Howard doesn't need an I-Form or even to run out of Ace. He had great numbers last year running Inside Zone from Shotgun. So if you can threaten the physical running game while not being set for it-- I think THAT is what Howard brings to the table that is being greatly undersold. They do not NEED (contrary to Fox-ian beliefs) to telegraph the run to put Howard in. Even if you don't want him running routes I'll take the extra blocker. There's plenty you can do with Howard just being in the game to open up the passing game taht has nothing to do with Howard catching passes. Not believing that is just not thinking creatively enough on the offensive side. 

 

But more to the point of what I wanted to write on specifically with the red zone numbers. 

 

I wish I could find Red Zone plays for team. If someoen has a source for that exact measurement, I'd appreciate it. I'll make do without for now. 

 

Take a usage comparison with someone like Todd Gurley. Gurley ran the ball 279 times which, based on a Team Plays per Game metric, would be roughly 27.9% of the Rams plays. Howard's ratio, despite playing on a team more often losing, is actually higher due to the talent surrounding him, with his 276 Attempts equating 29.5% of the offense. As mentioned, we expect the usage to go down in Neutral Scripts. And I agree with that entirely. The Bears, if they are a successful offense, will run a few more plays, which should make up for some of the difference, but ultimately it does seem like Howard having fewer carries is probably the right projection. But the total carries isn't really the main thing I'm concerned with here. 

 

Gurley had 62 Attempts inside the 20 Yard Line, or roughly 22.22% of his carries came within the 20.

Howard had 32 Attempts inside the 20 Yard Line, or roughly 11.60% of his carries came within the 20. 

 

Unfortunately again I don't have Red Zone plays, so it makes the discussion of the argument a bit trickier, but there's not a single logical explanation that could possibly explain this other than the fact that the Bears were in the Red Zone so infrequently last year that despite being a bigger part of the offense as a whole, he saw half the proportion of his carries from inside the Red Zone. 

 

I don't think Howard has a very good shot at surpassing 270 carries again. But I do think Howard has a VERY good shot of seeing both a higher proportion and a higher volume of his carries from within the redzone. Out of Running Backs who scored at least 6 Red Zone TDs last year (Howard had 8), only three had fewer attempts, Alex Collins* (6 TD on 27 ATT), Alvin Kamara (6 TD on 25 ATT) and Lenoard Fournette (7 TD on 29 ATT). *Shout-out to Alex Collins who I also really like this year. 

 

Maybe Howard is unlikely to convert carries for TDs at the same rate as he did in 2017, but regardless, if he just sees those 240 carries and sees his ratio of carries inside the 20 jump from 11% to 16-20%, he'll still see that Red Zone carry number rise to 40-48. He wont' need to repeat the ratio to repeat 8 TDs, but if he does he'll probably end up with more than 10. And not wanting it to go forgotten-- again, Howard suffered through terrible conditions last year. Nagging injuries, horrendous coaching, and talentless receiving corps. And he still proved himself to be FAR above average in this area. 

 

If you completely disagree about the state of the Bears offense-- that they won't be middle of the pack and able to actually score points consistently this year-- then you probably won't agree with me about Howard. And that's fine. But I expect the Bears to have a prettty solid defense and no matter how good or bad Nagy is he's better than the utter trash Dowell Loggains / John Fox provided. Loggains has some excruciating quotes from the past calendar year as a fan that just say "I have no business being in this sport at this level." And "I don't have the creativity or innovation to run a modern NFL offense." 

 

I expect running conditions to improve. I expect the offense to be in the Red Zone more, and I expect Howard to thrive in that area because that's what he was made to do. And with that defense, I also think the Bears could find themselves in ball control mode a few more times this year, particularly with a non-Divisional schedule that I consider one of the easiest (probably THE easiest from a preseason standpoint) in the entire NFL. And if they're up late in games it is going to be the Jordan Howard show, of that much I am sure. After all the offseason talk about replacements, the Bears have brought in absolutely zero competition for Howard for between-the-tackles running, short of a UDFA who's also listed as a Fullback in Ryan Nall. 

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He is a dark horse to lead the league in rushing TDs. 

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54 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

He is a dark horse to lead the league in rushing TDs. 

 

rudimentary 'capping for spits and giggles ...

 

Zeke 9/5

Gurley 2/1

Lenny Snaps 7/2

MGIII 5/1

 

Howard i'd lay at 7/1 ... so, not necessarily "dark horse" in the true sense of the term - i don't think anyone in the magick foosball community would be shocked if he did lead that category. 

 

you want a real 75/1 level dark horse?

 

Corey Clement. 

 

 

 

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This guy is one of my gut feeling players to outperform his ADP this year. I see him being on a lot of my rosters.

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