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Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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1 hour ago, Boozted said:

Isn’t Howard a TD dependent rb? 

Not at all. He has higher upside than a TE on a team who can’t figure out who their QB will be every week.  

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2 hours ago, Dexter75 said:

From FP today...

 

2Hw6JDA.png

 

Good points. However, the lions, rams, and Packers have defenses that can be scored on. That doesn't automatically mean Howard has zero value. 

 

Plus lions offense has regressed and the Bears defense can feast on them. Vikings is a toss up depending on which version of cousins shows up. 

 

If you're deep at rb then sell high. I'm considering trying to package him with a wr2 for another RB. Anything less than a reliable RB2/WR2 is not worth trading him away 

Edited by Guwop

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I would say the only game I'm legitimately concerned about would be the game against the Rams.  None of the other teams are good enough to completely blow away the Bears, especially if Mack stays healthy for their defense.  I would have said the Packers, but their defense sucks and Mack might be all over Rodgers for a decent portion of the game.

 

Still, like the person above me said, I can still see someone selling high if they need something else.  I'm just not going out and making it my top priority to do so, as if it would break my season if I keep him around.

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Lemme know if anyone gets anything more than Danny Amendola for JoHo.

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7 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Not at all. He has higher upside than a TE on a team who can’t figure out who their QB will be every week.  

Let me break this down for you so you can see what Jordan is really worth. 

 

Jordan has 439yds rushing, 5 rushing TDs,  87 receiving yds on 11 catches and a fumble

 

OJ has 472yds receiving on 28 catches and 5 receiving TDs

 

These are the breakdown in fantasy points in the three most popular formats

 

                       STD             .5PPR            PPR

Jordan          80.6              86.1              91.6

OJ                  77.2              91.2           105.2

 

In .5ppr, where I play, Jordan is 25th in fantasy points scored at the RB spot. That makes him an RB3 in 10 or 12 man leagues.

For comparison, OJ is 4th in fantasy points scored at the TE spot. That makes him an elite TE1.

Last thing I’d like to point out is that OJ has played one less game than Jordan this season due to injury so his fantasy points per game(fppg) scores are actually higher than Jordan’s.

 

             STD(fppg)  .5PPR(fppg)  PPR(fppg)

Jordan    10.08             10.76           11.45

OJ            11.03             13.03          15.03   

 

 Basically what I’m saying is that Jordan Howard isn’t all that great in fantasy this year and you should try to sell for something else.

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While Howard hasn't been great up to this point for fantasy, the last two weeks have been solid, and there's a high probability that he countinues to get better and better as the weather turns. There is a reason why teams run more when the weather gets colder. And Chicago isn't called the Windy City for nothing. In Nov/Dec/Jan the temp drops into the teens with wind chill. Trubisky won't be throwing it 40 times a game. Just saying...

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2 hours ago, datsyuk said:

There is a reason why teams run more when the weather gets colder.

Or do they?

 

I gave this theory a quick test, comparing the pass% in recent years for Chicago's home games in September vs home games in December.

image.png.ddf72460fea2ff094764a8edc56950b8.png

As you can see, on average it's pretty much the same - except last year when in fact they started throwing more in December (which makes sense, given the new QB).

So if we discard 2017, I don't see a big increase in rushing.

 

I think I read something like this before, I think it's here:
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/weather-effects-on-passing.html

This guy has more data and a more rigorous study, and he did indeed find a slight increase in rushing attempts, but only at the very lowest temperatures. In fairness, you said "low teens", but the main point is, don't overestimate the effect. It's not that large.

(which is a pity, as I'd love to see a bit more of Howard).

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47 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Or do they?

 

I gave this theory a quick test, comparing the pass% in recent years for Chicago's home games in September vs home games in December.

image.png.ddf72460fea2ff094764a8edc56950b8.png

As you can see, on average it's pretty much the same - except last year when in fact they started throwing more in December (which makes sense, given the new QB).

So if we discard 2017, I don't see a big increase in rushing.

 

I think I read something like this before, I think it's here:
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/weather-effects-on-passing.html

This guy has more data and a more rigorous study, and he did indeed find a slight increase in rushing attempts, but only at the very lowest temperatures. In fairness, you said "low teens", but the main point is, don't overestimate the effect. It's not that large.

(which is a pity, as I'd love to see a bit more of Howard).


I didn't specifically mean just Chicago runs more in the later months. NFL teams in general seem to gravitate more towards ball control/ time clock control when the weather gets colder and inclimate. 

But yea, I don't have any actual studies or hard data on this, it just seems to be the general concencus and the tpyical "hearsay" when it comes to football in the later months.

Edited by datsyuk
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4 hours ago, Boozted said:

Let me break this down for you so you can see what Jordan is really worth. 

 

Jordan has 439yds rushing, 5 rushing TDs,  87 receiving yds on 11 catches and a fumble

 

OJ has 472yds receiving on 28 catches and 5 receiving TDs

 

These are the breakdown in fantasy points in the three most popular formats

 

                       STD             .5PPR            PPR

Jordan          80.6              86.1              91.6

OJ                  77.2              91.2           105.2

 

In .5ppr, where I play, Jordan is 25th in fantasy points scored at the RB spot. That makes him an RB3 in 10 or 12 man leagues.

For comparison, OJ is 4th in fantasy points scored at the TE spot. That makes him an elite TE1.

Last thing I’d like to point out is that OJ has played one less game than Jordan this season due to injury so his fantasy points per game(fppg) scores are actually higher than Jordan’s.

 

             STD(fppg)  .5PPR(fppg)  PPR(fppg)

Jordan    10.08             10.76           11.45

OJ            11.03             13.03          15.03   

 

 Basically what I’m saying is that Jordan Howard isn’t all that great in fantasy this year and you should try to sell for something else.

Let me break this down for you.

 

You sold low. Howard has never been a big name and thus far this season hasn’t performed as expected. You think you sol high. You didn’t.

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8 minutes ago, datsyuk said:


I didn't specifically mean just Chicago runs more in the later months. NFL teams in general seem to gravitate more towards ball control/ time clock control when the weather gets colder and inclimate. 

But yea, I don't have any actual studies or hard data on this, it just seems to be the general concencus and the tpyical "hearsay" when it comes to football in the later months.

Yep, so the link I added is interesting. Same for wind, you'd expect heavy winds to have an effect, but it's not actually that big.

I think I have another study on this (somewhere), where they concluded wind only really become a factor over 20+ mph.

I guess these padded wussies are a bit tougher than us couch potatoes think ;)

 

 

Edited by Boudewijn

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5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yep, so the link I added is interesting. Same for wind, you'd expect heavy winds to have an effect, but it's not actually that big.

I think I have another study on this (somewhere), where they concluded wind only really become a factor over 20+ mph.

I guess these padded wussies are a bit tougher than us couch potatoes think ;)

 

 


Well I own Howard and Cohen, and am going to be moving on to Howard from here on out I think, simply because of the "weather" and because of Nagy telling him the other week on the sidelines that they want to "get him going". Hopefully that is a sign of good things to come...

Edited by datsyuk

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1 hour ago, datsyuk said:

Nagy telling him the other week on the sidelines that they want to "get him going". Hopefully that is a sign of good things to come...

 

Source?

Hard to trust anything Nagy says after he hood winked us into the three down back talk.

Howard has show can has good hands this season since he worked on it in the off-season Trubisky won't throw to him anyway.

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4 minutes ago, pdog109 said:

 

Source?

Hard to trust anything Nagy says after he hood winked us into the three down back talk.

Howard has show can has good hands this season since he worked on it in the off-season Trubisky won't throw to him anyway.

 

I actually tried finding a clip of Nagy saying this to Howard, but couldn't. I believe I heard them talking about it on GMFB on NFL Network.

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1 hour ago, datsyuk said:

 

I actually tried finding a clip of Nagy saying this to Howard, but couldn't. I believe I heard them talking about it on GMFB on NFL Network.

 

no problem, appreciate it you looking.

I tried selling Howard this week, no dice.

Some eagles homer in my league wanted Tate after he got traded, I purposely draft eagles players just to try to fleece this dude, any combination of Howard+Tate to try to entice him didn't work. He wanted no part of Howard. :(

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7 minutes ago, pdog109 said:

 

no problem, appreciate it you looking.

I tried selling Howard this week, no dice.

Some eagles homer in my league wanted Tate after he got traded, I purposely draft eagles players just to try to fleece this dude, any combination of Howard+Tate to try to entice him didn't work. He wanted no part of Howard. :(

 

Well, at this point you aren't going to get much value for Howard, so you midaswell stay put and see if Nagy's comments + an emphasis on a heavier run game boosts Howard's value back up into the low end RB1/high end RB 2 ranks. We are really starting to see them use him a lot in the red zone and goal line, so this may be a great sign for things to come. Fingers crossed...

Edited by datsyuk
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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Or do they?

 

I gave this theory a quick test, comparing the pass% in recent years for Chicago's home games in September vs home games in December.

image.png.ddf72460fea2ff094764a8edc56950b8.png

As you can see, on average it's pretty much the same - except last year when in fact they started throwing more in December (which makes sense, given the new QB).

So if we discard 2017, I don't see a big increase in rushing.

 

I think I read something like this before, I think it's here:
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/weather-effects-on-passing.html

This guy has more data and a more rigorous study, and he did indeed find a slight increase in rushing attempts, but only at the very lowest temperatures. In fairness, you said "low teens", but the main point is, don't overestimate the effect. It's not that large.

(which is a pity, as I'd love to see a bit more of Howard).

 

And this is where the "Winter is coming" theory was DEBUNKED! You deserve a medal good sir

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1 hour ago, Guwop said:

 

And this is where the "Winter is coming" theory was DEBUNKED! You deserve a medal good sir

 

The true Nagy won't wait out the storm.

He brings the storm.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Let me break this down for you.

 

You sold low. Howard has never been a big name and thus far this season hasn’t performed as expected. You think you sol high. You didn’t.

I like how you called me out with your opinion when I posted numbers to back up my claim. 

 

Listen man I get it. I drafted him high too and he’s disappointed. Sure if you wanna say that because of where he was drafted compared to where OJ was drafted then yeah I sold low but at this point in the season that doesn’t matter. In a game where things change week to week you’ve got to keep up.

 

Lets be real for a second, do you really think Jordan would fetch anything of significantly higher value at this point? That’s a rhetorical question because the answer is no. The numbers I posted weren’t pulled out of my a** and I was successful in getting a player that has been better this season even if it’s only slightly. 

 

And before you try to argue that he has “upside” let me tell you that his theoretical upside also has variables that may or may not apply this season. 

 

In the end fantasy football isn’t an exact science. You believe what you believe and the same is true for myself. Maybe I may end up being wrong, but I trust numbers because they never lie and to this point they are saying he’s an RB3 in the league I play in. 

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41 minutes ago, Boozted said:

I like how you called me out with your opinion when I posted numbers to back up my claim. 

 

Listen man I get it. I drafted him high too and he’s disappointed. Sure if you wanna say that because of where he was drafted compared to where OJ was drafted then yeah I sold low but at this point in the season that doesn’t matter. In a game where things change week to week you’ve got to keep up.

 

Lets be real for a second, do you really think Jordan would fetch anything of significantly higher value at this point? That’s a rhetorical question because the answer is no. The numbers I posted weren’t pulled out of my a** and I was successful in getting a player that has been better this season even if it’s only slightly. 

 

And before you try to argue that he has “upside” let me tell you that his theoretical upside also has variables that may or may not apply this season. 

 

In the end fantasy football isn’t an exact science. You believe what you believe and the same is true for myself. Maybe I may end up being wrong, but I trust numbers because they never lie and to this point they are saying he’s an RB3 in the league I play in. 

The entire point of buy low and sell high is the reality that numbers do lie when predicting future outcome. Numbers are also worthless without context. OJ Howard is 5th on his team in targets for instance. Not a great stat when analyzing sustainbilty and future output.

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The entire point of buy low and sell high is the reality that numbers do lie when predicting future outcome. Numbers are also worthless without context. OJ Howard is 5th on his team in targets for instance. Not a great stat when analyzing sustainbilty and future output.

2m3qxv.jpg

(Edit: I know what you're trying to do, but I had to chuckle anyway ;) )

Edited by Boudewijn
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20 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

2m3qxv.jpg

(Edit: I know what you're trying to do, but I had to chuckle anyway ;) )

I’m a big numbers guy. My issue is when people just throw them out there as definitive evidence for a particular argument. Being 5th in targets shows he doesn’t have great volume and is the 4th or 5th option. No way around that. Numbers show DJ isn’t a top 10 RB. Everyone knows that’s bull****.

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Howard sucks regardless of what numbers you use and was a wasted pick no matter where you got him. He is so JAG that he is a below average JAG

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9 hours ago, pdog109 said:

 

no problem, appreciate it you looking.

I tried selling Howard this week, no dice.

Some eagles homer in my league wanted Tate after he got traded, I purposely draft eagles players just to try to fleece this dude, any combination of Howard+Tate to try to entice him didn't work. He wanted no part of Howard. :(


Found the clip. Here it is:
 

 

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25 minutes ago, datsyuk said:


Found the clip. Here it is:
 

 

 

 

 

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, I'm stuck with Howard too, but I think it is most likely that Nagy saying "I promise I'm gunna get ya going" refers to that game in particular. The fact that he says it near the end of the game doesn't strike me as particularly encouraging or genuine either. 

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19 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

 

 

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, I'm stuck with Howard too, but I think it is most likely that Nagy saying "I promise I'm gunna get ya going" refers to that game in particular. The fact that he says it near the end of the game doesn't strike me as particularly encouraging or genuine either. 

 

I guess we will find out. I'm starting Howard over Cohen this week because I feel like it will be a run heavy game script where Chicago doesn't have to play catch up. Whether or not it works out for me is another story. 

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