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Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

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how do people feel about him this week in standard if Trubisky is out? Can't see Nagy letting Daniels throw 40 times and the Defense should give them some short fields

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1 minute ago, vthokie3 said:

how do people feel about him this week in standard if Trubisky is out? Can't see Nagy letting Daniels throw 40 times and the Defense should give them some short fields

A lock for 10 carries.

 

in all seriousness I think if trubisky is out he is a good play but it seems like trubs might play based on local radio. But who knows 

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

A lock for 10 carries.

 

in all seriousness I think if trubisky is out he is a good play but it seems like trubs might play based on local radio. But who knows 

Yeah bit of a wait and see with trubisky 

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1 hour ago, vthokie3 said:

how do people feel about him this week in standard if Trubisky is out? Can't see Nagy letting Daniels throw 40 times and the Defense should give them some short fields

 

Nagy will probably add more reverses to Gabriel and let Daniels have some designed runs. 

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2 hours ago, Jrt80 said:

In all fairness it has happened before. The strategy was made famous by Eddie “cold hands” Lacey, dude was a beast in November/December back in the day.

 

If Howard serves any purpose it’s to run the ball 30 times in cold temperatures. He’s got 18 carries last game so it’s not like he’s god awful.

 

Plus sources say he plans on bulking up during thanksgiving, Nagys been  referring to him as the redzone bulldozer. 

 

On a different team in a different nfl when multiple teams employed that approach. The current nfl has been moving away from the "wear the defense down with 20+ carries" running game and week after week Nagy showed he was all in on joining featuring trubisky regardless of game script or location.

 

Nagy had also said he planned to feature Howard more earlier this season and that didn't happen. Nagy will do what he wants and that makes usage hard to predict when it comes to the bears RBs. The cold weather theory was more blind hope than anything statistically based. They are in the Midwest. It's cold already. Where they gonna wait until week 16 and 17 to use him at the coldest possible? 

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If Mitchell can’t go it is a huge plus for Howard in my opinion.  Should see 16-20 carries in this one 

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1 hour ago, Guwop said:

 

On a different team in a different nfl when multiple teams employed that approach. The current nfl has been moving away from the "wear the defense down with 20+ carries" running game and week after week Nagy showed he was all in on joining featuring trubisky regardless of game script or location.

 

Nagy had also said he planned to feature Howard more earlier this season and that didn't happen. Nagy will do what he wants and that makes usage hard to predict when it comes to the bears RBs. The cold weather theory was more blind hope than anything statistically based. They are in the Midwest. It's cold already. Where they gonna wait until week 16 and 17 to use him at the coldest possible? 

 

as i pointed out week 16 and 17 the bears play at SF and then inside dome at MIN.

Weeks to use him are 13,14,15 for MAX COLD

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2 hours ago, vthokie3 said:

how do people feel about him this week in standard if Trubisky is out? Can't see Nagy letting Daniels throw 40 times and the Defense should give them some short fields

 

Seems like it'll fit him because he should (in theory) get alot more carries. Will those carries amount to anything with no passing threat is anyone's guess. Who knows maybe Gabriel, Miller,  and Cohen get tons of sweeps and direct snaps along with Jordan Howard runs up the gut. Would be a start without confidence 

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17 minutes ago, NyMetsfan5 said:

If Mitchell can’t go it is a huge plus for Howard in my opinion.  Should see 16-20 carries in this one 

 

That's not far off from his typical workload.  It's just too obvious when he is the game.  Very TD-reliant.

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2 hours ago, NyMetsfan5 said:

If Mitchell can’t go it is a huge plus for Howard in my opinion.  Should see 16-20 carries in this one 

 

Or Benny Cunningham will get 15 touches. 

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15 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I've got some misses too, my man, it happens!  It's just tough how you went all in on him!

Haha yeah he was my guy. Certainly didn’t anticipate burton miller and Gabriel stealing so many carries. From 2500 rushing yards his first 2 seasons to barely used. Can’t say I saw this coming

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7 hours ago, Jrt80 said:

In all fairness it has happened before. The strategy was made famous by Eddie “cold hands” Lacey, dude was a beast in November/December back in the day.

 

If Howard serves any purpose it’s to run the ball 30 times in cold temperatures. He’s got 18 carries last game so it’s not like he’s god awful.

 

Plus sources say he plans on bulking up during thanksgiving, Nagys been  referring to him as the redzone bulldozer. 

Sounds like a coincidence, as statistically the temperature has little effect on fantasy football. The only thing that matters with regard to weather is high winds.

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7 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

From 2500 rushing yards his first 2 seasons to barely used. Can’t say I saw this coming

 

This one is the most vexing to me.  We can look back and hindsight a lot of these backs, but Howard was one that almost everyone felt at least safe about, at best like he was a stud.

 

I think the biggest takeaway is that any time HC or OC changes that is a major red flag, period.  Could be good, or, if there's good reason to believe the new guy will be pass-happy, maybe that isn't great news for the incumbent banger.

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Nagy strikes me as someone that wants to show that he is the smartest guy in the room with his play calling. The Packers game when he made bizarre play calls on 4th and short essentially lost the game for the Packers. Nagy has been bailed out by Mack and the defense numerous times this season. He refuses to play situational football when they have a lead and will allow the opponent a chance to get back in the game. Not only is Howard not used in a way to help him excel but Burton is nonexistent at times. Cohen will have 6 touch games in a game.  Eventually this will come back to hurt the Bears. 

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5 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

This one is the most vexing to me.  We can look back and hindsight a lot of these backs, but Howard was one that almost everyone felt at least safe about, at best like he was a stud.

 

I think the biggest takeaway is that any time HC or OC changes that is a major red flag, period.  Could be good, or, if there's good reason to believe the new guy will be pass-happy, maybe that isn't great news for the incumbent banger.

 

Agree that it's hard to predict what a coaching change will do.   But with Nagy coming from the Reid tree,  it seemed like the #1 RB would get most of the work.   And with the news of Howard seriously working on his pass catching,  I thought he'd have a decent year.

 

But it's clear that Nagy has his own style.   And it's been brutal for the non QB fantasy skill positions.

 

Burton seemed like a sure thing.   TE in what was thought to be a Reid system.   And the fact that Nagy went and got him from Philly.  

But he looks like an afterthought much of the time.

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5 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

This one is the most vexing to me.  We can look back and hindsight a lot of these backs, but Howard was one that almost everyone felt at least safe about, at best like he was a stud.

 

I think the biggest takeaway is that any time HC or OC changes that is a major red flag, period.  Could be good, or, if there's good reason to believe the new guy will be pass-happy, maybe that isn't great news for the incumbent banger.

Yeah. I feel good about drafting Howard. The process was sound. But new coaches are always risky in football (or basketball) for early picks, and always a positive for late picks. You never know how guys will get used, especially in situations like this where the coach has no track record. Unfortunately, the terrible playcalling that has plagued Howard and really nobody else on the Bears has screwed fantasy owners beyond their wildest dreams. If he plays literally anywhere else next year he'll have a positive return on ADP. 

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Just now, miasma16 said:

Yeah. I feel good about drafting Howard. The process was sound. But new coaches are always risky in football (or basketball) for early picks, and always a positive for late picks. You never know how guys will get used, especially in situations like this where the coach has no track record. Unfortunately, the terrible playcalling that has plagued Howard and really nobody else on the Bears has screwed fantasy owners beyond their wildest dreams. If he plays literally anywhere else next year he'll have a positive return on ADP. 

Really good point here. My thoughts as well.

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“Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) is doubtful for Week 12 against the Lions.

 

This has been the way it's been moving the last 24 hours; Trubisky isn't going to play Thursday, and it will be Chase Daniel making the start with Tyler Bray likely to back him up. Trubisky is said to have a sprained AC joint, but the Bears expect him to be able to return Week 13 against the Giants.”

 

 

 

I love the fact that “it will be Chase Daniel making the start with Tyler Bray likely to back him up.” is followed by absolutely no comment on Jordan Howard and the run game. No “With Chase Daniels at the controls expect to see more carries for Howard” or “Nagy will lean more heavily on the run game in an effort to hide Chase Daniels” etc.

 

At this point everyone knows that even with a turd string QB, Nagy would likely rather eat glass than utilize Howard. 

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Good luck guys, i'm dropping Howard this week for a kicker to cover GZ's bye.

Good riddance.

Expect 100 yards/3 TD game tomorrow.

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If the game was being played in Chicago, I'd be more inclined to think it has the potential to be a heavy workload game for Howard. But, in the dome I'm not feeling it. Thinking it may be more of a Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton kind of game (check downs and more shorter/intermediate routes). But, I'm curious what other Howard owners are thinking. 

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1 hour ago, The G Man said:

If the game was being played in Chicago, I'd be more inclined to think it has the potential to be a heavy workload game for Howard. But, in the dome I'm not feeling it. Thinking it may be more of a Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton kind of game (check downs and more shorter/intermediate routes). But, I'm curious what other Howard owners are thinking. 

 

Real question...I haven't seen many of Burton's games.  Just the stats.

 

Is he even running check down routes?   Seems like he was always downfield in the highlights I've seen.

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Even with Chase Daniel coming in this is a large yuck. He rushed for an astronomical 21 yards on 11 attempts last game against the Lions at home in a favorable script in a good matchup. Fade this man.

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1 hour ago, pdog109 said:

Good luck guys, i'm dropping Howard this week for a kicker to cover GZ's bye.

Good riddance.

Expect 100 yards/3 TD game tomorrow.

At least I can visit Bears game day threads in peace.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

At least I can visit Bears game day threads in peace.

 

Wrong, i'll still be there to complain about bears defense not getting pick 6, sacks, fumbles.

 

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