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Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

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Howard had 2,858 total yards from scrimmage the past two seasons with 52 receptions and a 4.6 ypc average with 16 total touchdowns. The guy does not suddenly stink at age 24. 

 

Nagy already cost them the 1st Packers game. He cannot rely on defensive TDS every week. Eventually his luck will run out. 

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Todd Gurley himself could not put up numbers in a system this predictable, and with so few carries.  I never thought I could disagree with a Bears coach more than I disagreed with John Fox, but Nagy has him beat.

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34 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Todd Gurley himself could not put up numbers in a system this predictable, and with so few carries.  I never thought I could disagree with a Bears coach more than I disagreed with John Fox, but Nagy has him beat.

Even as a Howard owner, I dont understand how you can possibly consider Fox a better/more agreeable coach.

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Fox was one of the biggest users of outsize zone blocking. Howard, with his vison and deceive 1 cuts thrived in that system.

 

I dont think Nagy is a worse overall coach than fox. Yet a smart coach schemes with his personal. He didnt do that. He improved the passing game..but regressed the running game. 

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The Bears are 8-3 and people are in this thread ripping Nagy? 

 

I get it, it sucks to essentially flush a 2nd or 3rd round pick down the toilet like Howard owners have done, but the team is winning and an offense built around Cohen and Trubisky is clearly much better than one built around Howard. 

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Looked at the CHI RB's carries for the year.  Did not include Mitch or any of the WR carries.  Howard, Cohen and Cunningham.  Factor in Cohen getting carries via non traditional running back formations.  This RB group has 232 carries for 829 yards, 3.57 ypc.   Mitch has almost 30% of the Bears rushing yards and he missed a game.  The Bears are a top 10 running team, but when you take Mitch's average out, they are not very efficient.  

 

 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, RepoMan said:

The Bears are 8-3 and people are in this thread ripping Nagy? 

Fantasy Football warps perspectives to insane degrees sometime. Nagy has already tied Fox's win total from the last two seasons, but he doesn't have a scheme that produces Howard fantasy points...so awful coach.

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amazing this bum has 94 pages. cut your losses already people, there's literally zero upside here

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40 minutes ago, RepoMan said:

The Bears are 8-3 and people are in this thread ripping Nagy? 

 

I get it, it sucks to essentially flush a 2nd or 3rd round pick down the toilet like Howard owners have done, but the team is winning and an offense built around Cohen and Trubisky is clearly much better than one built around Howard. 

 

Exactly! The Bears are a dangerous team and rolling with 5 wins straight. Yes it might not be helping out Howards fantasy season but what do you expect Nagy to do when he is continually winning? His game plan is working. This team is doing WAY better than when Fox was just acting like it was 1986 and running constant I-formation Howard runs up the gut 50 times a game.

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37 minutes ago, metalmat said:

 

Exactly! The Bears are a dangerous team and rolling with 5 wins straight. Yes it might not be helping out Howards fantasy season but what do you expect Nagy to do when he is continually winning? His game plan is working. This team is doing WAY better than when Fox was just acting like it was 1986 and running constant I-formation Howard runs up the gut 50 times a game.

The Bears win because of their defense.  Nagy the mad genius has cost them several wins with his ludicrous clock management and play selection, including Green Bay and Miami where he had a big lead but was dialing up exotic pass plays and letting the opponents come back.

 

Nagy v. a real coach like Belichick or Payton will be an absolutely unholy slaughter.  But it is also very annoying that he does not know how to engineer a running game or use Howard properly.

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The Bears record keeps coming up. I decided to take a look at all their games this year and see how they went. Let's begin week 1:

 

1. Bears @ Packers. 24-23 (L)

 

Up 20-0 at half time

 

Proceed to run 30 passing plays to 11 run plays in the second half despite Howard averaging 5.5 YPC.

Notable bad plays: 

3rd and 1 at the start of the 4th. They throw the ball and do not convert. 

3rd and 2 coming behind. They throw the ball and do not convert.

 

Conclusion: To this point the worst coached second half of the season.

 

2. Bears vs Seahawks. 24-17 (W)

 

Up 10-3 at half time

17 passes 7 runs.

Bears offense scored 17 points. Up 17-10, they manage to get a pick 6. The next play, the defense forces a fumble.

 

Conclusion: The defense CLEARLY won them this game. 

 

3. Bears vs Cardinals. 16-14 (W)

 

Down 14-3 at half time

Bears force 4 turnovers in the second half. Every Cardinals drive was a turnover. 13 of their points were off turnovers. Meaning only 3 were not off turnovers.

 

Conclusion: The defense CLEARLY won them this game

 

4. Bears @ Bucs 48-10 (W)

 

Dominate the game from start to finish. Trubisky shreds the defense to pieces.

 

Conclusion: Overall great game. Good game plan by Nagy to attack their weak secondary. 

 

5. Bears @ Dolphins 31-28 (L)

 

Up 21-10 mid way through the 3rd.

 

15 passes 11 runs

 

Trubisky throws interception in redzone at the start of the 4th. Cohen fumbles inside their own territory just over 2 minutes. Bears defense allows big plays. On the possession where Trubisky throws the pick, it was 1st down and 3, they chose to pass pushing them back on a penalty (a fairly bad one) then they throw again only to throw an interception. Howard carried them into FG position in overtime but they missed. 

 

Conclusion: Fault on offense, offense, and special teams. Allowed too many big plays and committed turnovers too often. Not the worst play calling. 

 

6. Bears vs Patriots 38-31 (L)


Down 21-17 at half

Down 31-24 at the end of the 3rd

Down 38-24 with 8 minutes left

Never led in second half

 

My issue with this game is they threw 50(!) times and only ran 18 RB runs. They were trying to have Trubisky keep up with Brady. 

 

Conclusion: Not a very good game plan. Hard for the defense to do their job when you are airing it out and keeping them on the field. Having a mediocre QB try to keep up with the Patriots is a bad idea. That being said, not completely Nagys fault as they did do a good job keeping up and defense should have done better.

 

7. Bears @ Jets 24-10 (W)

 

Bears control the game from start to finish. Never trail and are up comfortably. Actually run more runs then pass plays.

 

Conclusion: This is how the Bears should play. Control the game from start to finish, establish the run, dominate defensively, and sprinkle in some creativity. That being said, Jets are bad. They could have won either way. 

 

8. Bears vs Bills 41-9 (W)

 

Nate Peterman. That is all. Defense forced 4 turnovers and got 2 TDs. Offense didn't have to do anything.

 

Conclusion: Defense CLEARLY won them this game

 

9. Bears @ Lions 34-22 (W)

 

Up 26-10 at half time

14 passes 4 runs in the second half.

 

How on earth do you run 4 times up double digits after half? Anywho, Bears won and the game was never in danger. Good game plan and performance by Trubisky

 

Conclusion: Offense won them the game. Good game plan and they exposed Detroit through the air

 

10. Bears @ Vikings 25-20 (W)

 

Up 14-0 at half time

20 passes 12 runs in the second half.


By Nagy standards, that is an impressive amount of runs up double digits. Trubisky threw an interception in the second half and Cohen fumbled on a horrible play call with a run up the middle giving the Vikings some momentum. Detroit had momentum down 14-6 and Bears get a pick 6. MIN then drives and scores and Bears reply with a FG to put the game away with under 3 minutes.

 

Conclusion: Offense and defense won them the game. Defense got a key pick 6 but the offense put them away

 

11. Bears vs Lions 23-16 (W)

 

Bears only run 15 times against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

Chase Daniels throws 37 times

16-16 with 6 minutes left and the Bears get a pick 6 to take the lead

They then force another interception on the next possession to put the game away

 

Conclusion:  God awful game plan to throw more than two times as much as you run with a journey man backup QB against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  Defense CLEARLY won them this game

 

4 games were won because of their defense

2 were won because of their offense

2 were won because of both

 

1 was lost because of horrid second half play calls

1 was lost because of massive mistakes by the players

1 was lost because of bad game plan along with simply playing a superior team

 

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You can keep pointing at the record and saying "See, THAT proves Nagy is good." However, that is extremely short sighted. I'm not saying he can't be good my point is thus far he hasn't been good. You have to remember, he is an offensive coach and has no involvement with their defense. Yet, they only won two games because of their offense and half of their wins have been on the back of the defense. My conclusion is that Vic Fangio is the COY.

 

 

 

Edited by Gohawks
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8 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

You can keep pointing at the record and saying "See, THAT proves Nagy is good." However, that is extremely short sighted. I'm not saying he can't be good my point is thus far he hasn't been good. You have to remember, he is an offensive coach and has no involvement with their defense. Yet, they only won two games because of their offense and half of their wins have been on the back of the defense. My conclusion is that Vic Fangio is the COY.

 

 

 

Fox had virtually the same defense, with the same DC (minus Mack) and couldn't get 8 wins.. Fox also ran the ball a whole lot.

 

But yeah, Nagy is just riding a defense.

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2 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Fox had virtually the same defense, with the same DC (minus Mack) and couldn't get 8 wins.. Fox also ran the ball a whole lot.

 

But yeah, Nagy is just riding a defense.

Yeah. Virtually the same defense minus a generational talent. No big deal...

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4 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Fox had virtually the same defense, with the same DC (minus Mack) and couldn't get 8 wins.. Fox also ran the ball a whole lot.

 

But yeah, Nagy is just riding a defense.

And by virtually the same defense, you mean virtually the same defense from 2017 plus, uh, Khalil Mack.

 

Nagy is not riding the defense.  If Nagy had been doing that, and pounding the run to protect large second half leads, the Bears would be 10-1.

 

You know who Nagy is?  Nagy is Ben McAdoo with less hair and a better wardrobe.

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3 hours ago, RepoMan said:

The Bears are 8-3 and people are in this thread ripping Nagy? 

 

I get it, it sucks to essentially flush a 2nd or 3rd round pick down the toilet like Howard owners have done, but the team is winning and an offense built around Cohen and Trubisky is clearly much better than one built around Howard. 

 

8-3 is a mirage,  I don’t want to see a playoff game where we have to rely on Cohen or Mitch running for 1st downs on 3 and 3 or having to score defensive TDS. Balance is needed and JoHo is good but the coach is to dumb to coach to a players strength, Instead he having his QB running all over and throwing on the run like he’s Jeeter in the hole. The running games a joke and one and done when you could make a run deep into the playoffs. Well coach is hamstring the team and the Defensive unit has more to do with being 8-3 than the coach. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah. Virtually the same defense minus a generational talent. No big deal...

Do you think a Fox led team would have 8 wins?

 

The defense is benefitting from a more adept offense, I don't know how you could argue differently.

2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And by virtually the same defense, you mean virtually the same defense from 2017 plus, uh, Khalil Mack.

 

Nagy is not riding the defense.  If Nagy had been doing that, and pounding the run to protect large second half leads, the Bears would be 10-1.

 

You know who Nagy is?  Nagy is Ben McAdoo with less hair and a better wardrobe.

Riding a defense no longer works in the modern NFL, look at the Ravens. You need to have an offense that can also throw up statistics to compete.

 

Not even a Nagy fan, but it is crazy he is getting s--- for being on pace to win the division after a very awful rut.

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Nagy's offences try to score a lot of points which puts pressure on the opposing teams offense to score as well. This makes the opponents offense have to take greater risks and the Bears defenders are able to play a lot more reckless to make big plays because they know their offense can keep them in games. See the Saints defense on Thanksgiving for a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Obviously the Bears offense isn't even close to the Saints but they try to put pressure on the opposing team in a similar way.

 

Just because Nagy doesn't coach the defense does not mean his offense is not apart of their success. 

 

Howard hasn't exactly been playing great this year either. 

Edited by munde53
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They'll keep Howard and he'll end up a top 3 fantasy RB next year ..cuz ..football 

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13 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Do you think a Fox led team would have 8 wins?

No one said Fox is better than Nagy. No one. So you bringing this up is irrelevant. Not only is it a straw man it is an awful one at that. Fox was an absolutely terrible coach. It's not necessarily a complement being better than him. 

 

I also never said Nagy is a bad coach. My stance is that their win total does not reflect how well he has coached and it should be better. Their schedule has been one of the easiest in the league as well. My stance is also that the plays they run is not best suited to maximize the potential of their personnel. When you have an extremely elite defense, a good line, a good power back, a good COP back, and a young mistake prone QB the best strategy isn't to air it out. A guy like Carroll would have this team at 10-1. 

 

If Nagy had the Chiefs offense and defense I would have no problem with his play calling. The problem is he doesn't.

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5 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Todd Gurley himself could not put up numbers in a system this predictable, and with so few carries.  I never thought I could disagree with a Bears coach more than I disagreed with John Fox, but Nagy has him beat.

 

6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

No one said Fox is better than Nagy. No one. So you bringing this up is irrelevant. Not only is it a straw man it is an awful one at that. Fox was an absolutely terrible coach. It's not necessarily a complement being better than him. 

I dont know how you can agree more with Fox and consider him a worse coach. That's what got me involved, maybe you interpret it differently. 

 

Admittedly, I did take that conversation into your post. My bad.

Edited by hoppychokes

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4 hours ago, Krambone said:

 

8-3 is a mirage,  I don’t want to see a playoff game where we have to rely on Cohen or Mitch running for 1st downs on 3 and 3 or having to score defensive TDS. Balance is needed and JoHo is good but the coach is to dumb to coach to a players strength, Instead he having his QB running all over and throwing on the run like he’s Jeeter in the hole. The running games a joke and one and done when you could make a run deep into the playoffs. Well coach is hamstring the team and the Defensive unit has more to do with being 8-3 than the coach. 

 

Howard has gotten double digit carries in all but one game, he is 7th in the league in rushing attempts, he's done nothing with any of it. He has avg less than 4 yards a carry in all but 2 of the games this year, and in one of those games he fumbled at the goal line and basically cost them the game. All the guys above him have atleast a 4.0 ypc except for DJ. He still has cement hands and the guy has one 20+ yard run in 162 carries, one!!

 

I don't really know what some of you guys expect, should they feature Howard in the passing game? Why would anyone do that when they have Cohen. Is he supposed to get 20+ carries every week despite a woefully bad ypc and no big play ability?

 

I don't think there is a rb in the league who is consistently being fed the ball more with as bad a ypc as Howard.

 

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Howard needs stacked boxes. He isn't fast or elusive enough to make guys miss at the second level. He needs to find a hole and hope there is only one safety to beat. The problem is, with Nagy's offense, there will never be stacked boxes. Howard is just as one dimensional as the play-calling for him.  He's a one cut and go,  ground and pounder. 

 

He really isn't that great of a player.

 

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11 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Howard had 2,858 total yards from scrimmage the past two seasons with 52 receptions and a 4.6 ypc average with 16 total touchdowns. The guy does not suddenly stink at age 24.

 

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7 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Fox had virtually the same defense, with the same DC (minus Mack) and couldn't get 8 wins.. Fox also ran the ball a whole lot.

 

But yeah, Nagy is just riding a defense.

 

Let's not get crazy now, that Mack fella they traded for is kind of good.

Edited by metalmat
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