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Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Gio is a proven playmaker.  He may not be a feature back, but it's debatable to say Mixon is significantly more talented.  

 

Come on man. He’s a solid player, no doubt. Mixon has the skills to be a 3 down back. Even as much as I dislike Lewis, he’ll realize his best shot at winning is with Mixon on the field. There’s a reason their ADPs are 10 rounds apart. (Just guessing, someone else can verify)

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11 minutes ago, JHM_13 said:

 

Come on man. He’s a solid player, no doubt. Mixon has the skills to be a 3 down back. Even as much as I dislike Lewis, he’ll realize his best shot at winning is with Mixon on the field. There’s a reason their ADPs are 10 rounds apart. (Just guessing, someone else can verify)

You think Mixon will take Gio's role as a 3rd down back/hurry-up/etc? I think we're splitting hairs here, but being a bell cow does not necessarily mean someone that plays all three downs.  It means the lead back.  Mixon is no doubt the lead back, but, unlike the monsters (Ezekiel, DJ, Gurley, Hunt) he A. hasn't proven he can do it yet and B. has a very good RB behind him who is better in space than he is.

 

Edited by Magoo
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2 minutes ago, Magoo said:

You think Mixon will take Gio's role as a 3rd down back/hurry-up/etc? I think we're splitting hairs here, but being a bell cow does not necessarily mean someone that plays all three downs.  It means the lead back.  Mixon is no doubt the lead back, but, unlike the monsters (Ezekiel, DJ, Gurley, Hunt) he A. hasn't proven he can do it yet and B. has a very good RB behind him who is better in space than he is.

 

 

I would debate who could be more productive in space but that’s my opinion and yes, we’re probably splitting hairs. Mixon will not get the Zeke, DJ, Gurley, Bell, Fournette workload. I would argue his and Hunts workloads might be closer than some think this year. Ultimately comes down to who you like and where the value is. The Mixon, McKinnon, Howard debate is probably a more reasonable one

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5 minutes ago, JHM_13 said:

 

I would debate who could be more productive in space but that’s my opinion and yes, we’re probably splitting hairs. Mixon will not get the Zeke, DJ, Gurley, Bell, Fournette workload. I would argue his and Hunts workloads might be closer than some think this year. Ultimately comes down to who you like and where the value is. The Mixon, McKinnon, Howard debate is probably a more reasonable one

I like the Howard comp. Similar ADPs.

Edited by Magoo

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48 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

How is that not the point?

 

Gio's rookie season his touches were limited even though he was outperforming his competitor.

 

Gio - 170 carries, 4.1 ypc

Green-Ellis - 220 carries, 3.4 ypc

 

In Jeremy Hill's ridiculously productive rookie season he still got less carries than in his 2nd season(albeit by 1 carry), even though as a rookie he averaged 5.1 ypc.  His 2nd season he averaged 3.6 ypc.

 

I didn't say rookie's don't play, I said they've been limited regardless of the circumstances.  John Ross got benched after one fumble and we never heard from him again.

Man, I love debating with people who go out of their way to make my point for me. 

 

Your take is that Marv Lewis limits rookies. If that's the case, then I would expect to see an expanding and growing work load in year 2. Yet here you are, telling me that Hill got essentially the exact same work load in year 1 and 2. How can you still claim that Lewis was limiting Hill in year one for being a rookie then?

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1 hour ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Your take is that Marv Lewis limits rookies. If that's the case, then I would expect to see an expanding and growing work load in year 2. Yet here you are, telling me that Hill got essentially the exact same work load in year 1 and 2. How can you still claim that Lewis was limiting Hill in year one for being a rookie then?

He started the season the first 6 games getting 4-8 carries per game, that's how.

 

Why is his workload going to significantly increase when he can't run effectively?  In his 2nd season he averaged 3.6 ypc and still got the same workload.  That's a 1.5 ypc difference.  I mean Marvin Lewis is dumb, but not that dumb.  He was held back as a rookie based on how well he was performing.  Meanwhile Gio was averaging 4.7 ypc in Hill's 2nd season.

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8 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He started the season the first 6 games getting 4-8 carries per game, that's how.

 

Why is his workload going to significantly increase when he can't run effectively?  In his 2nd season he averaged 3.6 ypc and still got the same workload.  That's a 1.5 ypc difference.  I mean Marvin Lewis is dumb, but not that dumb.  He was held back as a rookie based on how well he was performing.  Meanwhile Gio was averaging 4.7 ypc in Hill's 2nd season.

And yet Marv came back with Hill in year 3 and gave him the exact same work load. 

 

Dude has exactly 222 or 223 carries his first 3 years. This is clearly by design with the way they split up the back field duties, and it has nothing to do with whether a player is a rookie or not. 

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1 minute ago, Experienced Rookie said:

it has nothing to do with whether a player is a rookie or not.

That must be why Joe Mixon wasn't declared the starter over Jeremy Hill until week 9.  Also why their top 10 overall pick didn't play all season.

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10 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

That must be why Joe Mixon wasn't declared the starter over Jeremy Hill until week 9.  Also why their top 10 overall pick didn't play all season.

Sorry, but WTF are you talking about?? Hill had 37 carries last year. He didn't have a SINGLE game with more carries than Mixon. NOT ONE. 

 

Just stop. 

 

As for John Ross....that dude SUCKS!

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4 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Sorry, but WTF are you talking about?? Hill had 37 carries last year. He didn't have a SINGLE game with more carries than Mixon. NOT ONE.

 

Just stop.

 

As for John Ross....that dude SUCKS!

Then why was it so hard to hand over the "starter" title to Mixon?  Hill was the starter in every game up to week 9 whether he got out-touched or not.  The only reason it changed is because Hill got hurt.  Of course he got out-touched he's complete trash.  That's kind of the point.

 

John Ross sucks?  Must be nice to know something before you even see him play.

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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Then why was it so hard to hand over the "starter" title to Mixon?  Hill was the starter in every game up to week 9 whether he got out-touched or not.  The only reason it changed is because Hill got hurt.  Of course he got out-touched he's complete trash.  That's kind of the point.

 

John Ross sucks?  Must be nice to know something before you even see him play.

I really give zero F***s about who gets the title of starter. I have 2 eyes. I can see the play on the field and read a box score. When Hill is getting 5 carries to Mixon's 18....it's very damn clear. Whatever negative stigma you think Lewis has for rookies clearly stops at him applying labels and titles.  Stats don't lie. 

 

And yes, John Ross sucks. A lot of ppl called it when Cincy made that pick. Even being a 1st round talent, dynasty owners avoided him like a plague in drafts last year. He's fast...that's it. 

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8 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I really give zero F***s about who gets the title of starter. I have 2 eyes. I can see the play on the field and read a box score. When Hill is getting 5 carries to Mixon's 18....it's very damn clear. Whatever negative stigma you think Lewis has for rookies clearly stops at him applying labels and titles.  Stats don't lie.

 

And yes, John Ross sucks. A lot of ppl called it when Cincy made that pick. Even being a 1st round talent, dynasty owners avoided him like a plague in drafts last year. He's fast...that's it.

So the forst 2 weeks of 2018 the carries were split evenly between 3 RB's.  Jeremy f**king Hill was still getting touches until he got hurt, but that's not limiting Mixon's touches?

 

Hill's rookie season he didn't get a significant amount of carries nor did he start until week 8.  Nope, no limiting there.

 

Gio Bernard was out carried by 50 carries his rookie season by 3.4 ypc Benjarvus Green-Ellis.  Can't call that limiting either.

 

John Ross got benched after 1 fumble and didn't play again even though they spent significant draft capital on him.

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

So the forst 2 weeks of 2018 the carries were split evenly between 3 RB's.  Jeremy f**king Hill was still getting touches until he got hurt, but that's not limiting Mixon's touches?

 

Hill's rookie season he didn't get a significant amount of carries nor did he start until week 8.  Nope, no limiting there.

 

Gio Bernard was out carried by 50 carries his rookie season by 3.4 ypc Benjarvus Green-Ellis.  Can't call that limiting either.

 

John Ross got benched after 1 fumble and didn't play again even though they spent significant draft capital on him.

Oh wow....2 whole weeks?!? Well...I surrender my position then. You're right. If Lewis won't cut a rookie RB loose until week 3, he certainly must hold them back. 

 

??????

 

I think we're done here. I can't even remember what point you were trying to make with this nonsense. Was it that we should expect a heavier work load for Mixon in year 2, with the argument being that Lewis restricts rookie play? Yeah, I'm sure it was something that flimsy. 

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3 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Oh wow....2 whole weeks?!? Well...I surrender my position then. You're right. If Lewis won't cut a rookie RB loose until week 3, he certainly must hold them back. 

 

??????

 

I think we're done here. I can't even remember what point you were trying to make with this nonsense. Was it that we should expect a heavier work load for Mixon in year 2, with the argument being that Lewis restricts rookie play? Yeah, I'm sure it was something that flimsy. 

Wouldn’t you expect his touches to go up to go up even without Lewis limiting his rookies?    Hill went into the season as the starter.   It was clear early on last season Mixon would be mired in a three way timeshare.   Have to think they want their second round pick to pan out, and will let him use the abilities they drafted him for. 

 

 

Edited by Impreza178

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9 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Wouldn’t you expect his touches to go up to go up even without Lewis limiting his rookies?    Hill went into the season as the starter.   It was clear early on last season Mixon would be mired in a three way timeshare.   Have to think they want their second round pick to pan out, and will let him use the abilities they drafted him for. 

 

 

I'm expecting about the same workload that Cincy has given their early down plodder every year. 225ish carries. I think Mixon could rack up 40+ catches though, one thing Hill never could do. 

 

More than 2017, but not like the heavy 3down workhorses. 

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God I just know this ends with him running for 588 yards. I just know it. 

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20 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

God I just know this ends with him running for 588 yards. I just know it. 

It's probably either that or 1588

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Ya'll are reading a little too much into YPC.

 

> Jeremy Hill was running in more short down situations than Gio, which will hurt his YPC.

> Gio came into games in a change of pace role, which will help his YPC.  Remember when Joseph Randle had 5.X YPC the year before he was going to take over as the starter?  Turns out it helps your YPC when another RB wears the D down for you.

> Speaking of wearing a defense down.  Multiple 4 yard runs where you deliver a blow to a defender will enable better YPC later in the game, and help to open up play action.

 

Gio has always had a good YPC.  It became clear in Hill's rookie year that Gio is too small to carry a significant load or wear down a defense.

 

That doesn't mean that Gio can't still get 10 carries per game in a limited role.

 

Mixon's abilities on all downs and in all situations does.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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Itsy bitsy spider came up the water drain to spout,

Down he came like rain and dropped some knowledge out.

 

Like the sun in the poem the good Lord brought enlightenment and cleared the air so that you'd see the light.

 

Unfortunately like the classic nursery rhyme I expect this to just be a rinse & repeat the same line over & over.

 

Cue the  " Hue hasn't got a clue " crowd then follow that with the " Gio es mio favorito " bit to prove Mixon is a bum because of his YPC.

 

Mixon will get his and Gio will have a role too. Can Mixon be like Gurley/Gordon and garner a BIG role as the receiving back ? Certainly, but I'd expect Gio to have a more significant role than Hannibal Ekeler or J. Kelly . Mixon should still get over 300 combined touches which is plenty for the chance to be a top ten RB.

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20 hours ago, JHM_13 said:

 

Come on man. He’s a solid player, no doubt. Mixon has the skills to be a 3 down back. Even as much as I dislike Lewis, he’ll realize his best shot at winning is with Mixon on the field. There’s a reason their ADPs are 10 rounds apart. (Just guessing, someone else can verify)

Gio has a mind meld with Dalton, that can be a larger factor than talent.

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31 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Mixon or guice?

Go.

Yup. Real question

 

Mixon, but ... a couple big runs or catches in the preseason and I think we could see Guice going in the McCoy, Mixon, Howard range come next month.

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21 minutes ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

Mixon, but ... a couple big runs or catches in the preseason and I think we could see Guice going in the McCoy, Mixon, Howard range come next month.

Hmmm? Smoking Joe..end of 2

Howard mid 3

Shady all over the map right now.

I have guice a solid end of 3 guy as of today.

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20 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Hmmm? Smoking Joe..end of 2

Howard mid 3

Shady all over the map right now.

I have guice a solid end of 3 guy as of today.

In ppr?

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