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Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

I really hate that I can’t get a discount on him.

 

Early third might be a discount if he gets 280 carries and 50 recs.

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5 hours ago, Panthor said:

 

he's being drafted in the mid to late 2nd round, for him to be the steal of the draft, he'd have to jump Bell/DJ/Gurley/Elliot this year

Or just everyone else ahead of him...

 

He's the 13th RB off the board.

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6 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

I really hate that I can’t get a discount on him.  I had him as my rookie RB1 in last years draft and expected some diminished value after last year but it seems like everyone else is a believer as well.

 

All logic tells you that guys like Jordan Howard, McKinnon, Freeman, Gronk, Kelce, Mike Evans, and Hilton are better picks in that late 2nd/early 3rd area but I know I’ll be kicking myself if he turns into the next Bell/DJ/Gurley.  He will probably be my hardest decision this draft season.

Same. It’s weird his adp went up a good bit after a bad rookie campaign, but clearly the majority is still high on him. That’s wasnt the case for Gordon 

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Im not buying it until i see it. Howard will do just as good or better at a similar ADP.

 

Lesean McCoy is another target around there maybe later which would be a STEAL

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7 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

I really hate that I can’t get a discount on him.  I had him as my rookie RB1 in last years draft and expected some diminished value after last year but it seems like everyone else is a believer as well.

 

All logic tells you that guys like Jordan Howard, McKinnon, Freeman, Gronk, Kelce, Mike Evans, and Hilton are better picks in that late 2nd/early 3rd area but I know I’ll be kicking myself if he turns into the next Bell/DJ/Gurley.  He will probably be my hardest decision this draft season.

 

His ADP is around where Gurley's was this time a year ago.  I was annoyed because despite his horrid prior year he wasn't going at much of a discount.  Just a reminder of how we may think of Mixon's current cost if he goes off this year. 

 

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30 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

His ADP is around where Gurley's was this time a year ago.  I was annoyed because despite his horrid prior year he wasn't going at much of a discount.  Just a reminder of how we may think of Mixon's current cost if he goes off this year. 

 

 

The difference is that Gurley had already put together a semi elite RB1 season whereas Mixon struggled statistically in his lone year.

 

As of now I’m taking Mixon over all the guys I listed besides from Gronk and Evans because I believe in his talent so much.  It just feels like an uncomfortably blind leap of faith, especially considering the other guys available in that range, and I’m very worried that I’m making an emotional decision rather than a logical one.

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7 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

The difference is that Gurley had already put together a semi elite RB1 season whereas Mixon struggled statistically in his lone year.

 

As of now I’m taking Mixon over all the guys I listed besides from Gronk and Evans because I believe in his talent so much.  It just feels like an uncomfortably blind leap of faith, especially considering the other guys available in that range, and I’m very worried that I’m making an emotional decision rather than a logical one.

 

I always have troubles taking upside vs known commodities myself. 

 

Generally when I do they turn out to be Davante Parkers and when I don't they turn into Le'veon Bell. 

 

That said I'm personally on the Mixon fence. Leaning towards a pass for established players though, but we'll see. Preseason starts next week, Lotta time to back track these comments. 

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1 minute ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I always have troubles taking upside vs known commodities myself. 

 

Generally when I do they turn out to be Davante Parkers and when I don't they turn into Le'veon Bell. 

 

That said I'm personally on the Mixon fence. Leaning towards a pass for established players though, but we'll see. Preseason starts next week, Lotta time to back track these comments. 

 

Pretty much sums up my feelings exactly.

 

Always hard when you feel very invested in a player to remain rational about them.

Edited by Chwf3rd
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11 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I always have troubles taking upside vs known commodities myself. 

 

Generally when I do they turn out to be Davante Parkers and when I don't they turn into Le'veon Bell. 

 

That said I'm personally on the Mixon fence. Leaning towards a pass for established players though, but we'll see. Preseason starts next week, Lotta time to back track these comments. 

Who would you consider an established RB drafted near Mixon though?  I don't see any except McCoy and I'm staying away from him for multiple reasons.

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Remember everyone saying Todd gurley sucked year before the previous one and he was a plodder with overrated skill set. Then with an improvement in the o-line and offense he came back to elite status. Judging Mixon last year on stats alone without looking at the picture as a whole is ignorant. That offense was a mess and the team was spiraling out of control. He was drafted into a crowded back field as well with a veteran Jeremy Hill.  Coming out of the draft he had one of the best overall skill sets as a running back. There is a reason Jeremy Hill is gone, they want this guy to be the man no doubt. Don’t be surprised if he’s given the work and bengals offense as a whole improves this year he isn’t a top 8 RB. 

Edited by ShowStopper

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who would you consider an established RB drafted near Mixon though?  I don't see any except McCoy and I'm staying away from him for multiple reasons.

 

Freeman. McCafferey. Howard.

 

I can see Mixon outscoring all these guys. He has the talent. 

 

Couldn't agree with you more on McCoy. Not with a 9 foot pole.

 

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18 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Could be a breakout for Mix on.

Glenn and Price should be HUGE improvements to the run blocking of that line

Sure anything’s possible.  

 

Mixon would be a flop if he’s not significant better.  But, Mixon is going in the 2nd round with absolute studs at WR...

 

Mixon is being drafted as if his breakout is guaranteed.  I don’t dislike Mixon, but his ADP is ridiculous.

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7 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Sure anything’s possible.  

 

Mixon would be a flop if he’s not significant better.  But, Mixon is going in the 2nd round with absolute studs at WR...

 

Mixon is being drafted as if his breakout is guaranteed.  I don’t dislike Mixon, but his ADP is ridiculous.

2nd round is probably too high.

What receivers is he being taken over?

I'd rather have Mixon than Diggs, Thielen, Alshon

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16 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

2nd round is probably too high.

What receivers is he being taken over?

I'd rather have Mixon than Diggs, Thielen, Alshon

TY, Hill, Fitz, Baldwin, etc.

 

I mentioned Guice available later because he’s an unknown.  We have data on Mixon... he was terrible.

 

I’d rather have an unknown available later. Than a guy that did poorly his first year (regardless of circumstances).

 

Mixon averaged 3.5, was his situation worse than C.J. Anderson who averaged 4.1?

 

The Giants OLine in 2017 was bad, right? Darkwa & Gallman averaged 4.4 and 4.3 respectively.

 

We can expect Mixon to be better.  But 2nd round better? I don’t think so.

 

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58 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

TY, Hill, Fitz, Baldwin, etc.

 

I mentioned Guice available later because he’s an unknown.  We have data on Mixon... he was terrible.

 

I’d rather have an unknown available later. Than a guy that did poorly his first year (regardless of circumstances).

 

Mixon averaged 3.5, was his situation worse than C.J. Anderson who averaged 4.1?

 

The Giants OLine in 2017 was bad, right? Darkwa & Gallman averaged 4.4 and 4.3 respectively.

 

We can expect Mixon to be better.  But 2nd round better? I don’t think so.

 

You’re putting a whole lot of stock into ypc during a rookie season.    There is no question Mixon has all the skills to be a 3 down elite rb in this league, and the narrative that Marvin isn’t compatible with this kind of back had also been disproved.     Bold moves with elite talents BEFORE they have a breakout is what wins leagues.    Mixon is said to have cut a bit of excess weight and is looking quick so far in OTAS.     Sleep on this guy at your own peril 

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

Mixon averaged 3.5, was his situation worse than C.J. Anderson who averaged 4.1?

Yes, much worse.

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

Mixon averaged 3.5, was his situation worse than C.J. Anderson who averaged 4.1?

 

The Giants OLine in 2017 was bad, right? Darkwa & Gallman averaged 4.4 and 4.3 respectively.

 

According to Footballoutsiders.com, Denver ranked 9th in run blocking.  Giants ranked 15th in run blocking.  Bengals ranked 24th in run blocking.

 

Also ypc is a very deceiving and overrated statistic.

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

According to Footballoutsiders.com, Denver ranked 9th in run blocking.  Giants ranked 15th in run blocking.  Bengals ranked 24th in run blocking.

 

Also ypc is a very deceiving and overrated statistic.

 

This. 

 

Remember that LeVeon Bell's rookie ypc was 3.5 as well (on 66 more carries than Mixon).

 

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

TY, Hill, Fitz, Baldwin, etc.

 

I mentioned Guice available later because he’s an unknown.  We have data on Mixon... he was terrible.

 

I’d rather have an unknown available later. Than a guy that did poorly his first year (regardless of circumstances).

 

Mixon averaged 3.5, was his situation worse than C.J. Anderson who averaged 4.1?

 

The Giants OLine in 2017 was bad, right? Darkwa & Gallman averaged 4.4 and 4.3 respectively.

 

We can expect Mixon to be better.  But 2nd round better? I don’t think so.

 

 

Regardless of circumstance? That matters a lot. Just look at Gurleys 2nd year in the league. He was awful, but not because he wasn’t talented. His situation at the time was bad. Offensive coordinator, bad play calling/offense and o line. All that stuff can make any elite player look really bad 

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35 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Regardless of circumstance? That matters a lot. Just look at Gurleys 2nd year in the league. He was awful, but not because he wasn’t talented. His situation at the time was bad. Offensive coordinator, bad play calling/offense and o line. All that stuff can make any elite player look really bad 

Sure.  But Mixon was the worst in the league out of all the starters.  Other RBs has similar situations and did well.

 

The question is how much does Mixon want it?  Mixon has character concerns, was that a factor?  Mixon is physically talented enough to do better than 3.5.

 

I can see some parallels between Mixon and Gurley, but Dalton + Green should have been enough to keep the opposing D’s somewhat honest.  Mixon also only had 30 receptions... that’s a suspiciously low number.

 

My point is Mixon in the 4th is worth the risk.  Mixon in the 2nd doesn’t have a good risk/reward.

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

You’re putting a whole lot of stock into ypc during a rookie season.    There is no question Mixon has all the skills to be a 3 down elite rb in this league, and the narrative that Marvin isn’t compatible with this kind of back had also been disproved.     Bold moves with elite talents BEFORE they have a breakout is what wins leagues.    Mixon is said to have cut a bit of excess weight and is looking quick so far in OTAS.     Sleep on this guy at your own peril 

So you’re talking Mixon in the 2nd round?

 

That’s the question for all Mixon truthers...

 

When I look at rookie RBs in almost every case future stars come into the league strong.  Even Gurley flashed as a rookie, he was a Pro Bowler in 2015.

 

Maybe Mixon will earn that 2nd round grade in the preseason, but he hasn’t earned it yet.

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