smeeze

Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I’ve flirted with cuffs on and off over the years, but generally avoid them unless there is an injury concern.  I don’t consider Mixon as a high risk, so even though Gio is a high end fill-in, I’ll avoid him.

 

I think a lot of it depends on the structure of your league...  I’d rather stash rookie RB’s with upside.  The upside being better than the current starter. For instance... Derrius Guice

 

Gio is almost guaranteed to go undrafted.  He’s also unlikely to overtake Mixon as the starter without an injury.

Undrafted huh 

 

methinks u are mistaken there.  6 team league? :P

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Undrafted huh 

 

methinks u are mistaken there.  6 team league? :P

Gio is currently the 51st RB, and that’s ahead of many rookies that will move up (after being drafted).

 

In a 12 person PPR (my league) each person can have 4 RB (max) most have 3 RB and an extra WR. (2 RB start each week)

 

12x4 = 48 < 51

 

So, yes he’s pretty much guaranteed to go undrafted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Gio is currently the 51st RB, and that’s ahead of many rookies that will move up (after being drafted).

 

In a 12 person PPR (my league) each person can have 4 RB (max) most have 3 RB and an extra WR. (2 RB start each week)

 

12x4 = 48 < 51

 

So, yes he’s pretty much guaranteed to go undrafted.

 

4 rbs per team max?    Yikes.   

Well u got me there.   Even in my short bench league we can carry 5 per team.  

Most leagues people are carrying more than that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Undrafted huh 

 

methinks u are mistaken there.  6 team league? :P

 

His ADP is in he 14th round of a 12 teamer, pre-draft. Dunno about 'most leagues' but I'm sure in some.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

4 rbs per team max?    Yikes.   

Well u got me there.   Even in my short bench league we can carry 5 per team.  

Most leagues people are carrying more than that. 

There are a lot of crazy leagues out there...

 

That’s why when I give an opinion I try to say “I like this guy over that guy” and specify PPR.

 

In the case of Gio it’s a preference for probably the top5 rookie RBs over Gio.

 

Who the top5 rookies are depends on where they end up ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

There are a lot of crazy leagues out there...

 

That’s why when I give an opinion I try to say “I like this guy over that guy” and specify PPR.

 

In the case of Gio it’s a preference for probably the top5 rookie RBs over Gio.

 

Who the top5 rookies are depends on where they end up ?

You realize of course that what you are describing is far more than just PPR.  

 

Positional limits to that extreme is a highly specialized league.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

You realize of course that what you are describing is far more than just PPR.  

 

Positional limits to that extreme is a highly specialized league.    

Every time someone adds or drops a player on waiver it costs them $1.

 

So if you dropped Gio to add Guice that’s $2.  The total fantasy point winner (collecting add/drop/trade) makes more than league Winner.

 

There’s a lot of different strategies...  I like the highly active waiver wire.

 

I haven’t even played “best ball” yet... seems like ‘lazy mans’ fantasy FB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Every time someone adds or drops a player on waiver it costs them $1.

 

So if you dropped Gio to add Guice that’s $2.  The total fantasy point winner (collecting add/drop/trade) makes more than league Winner.

 

There’s a lot of different strategies...  I like the highly active waiver wire.

 

I haven’t even played “best ball” yet... seems like ‘lazy mans’ fantasy FB.

Interesting 

 

best ball is like a lottery ticket- can’t really think of it like fantasy.  But we do have a good time over the course of the 2 hour auction.  Good practice for real leagues too- getting familiar with the board.  

 

I’ll hit u up for one sometime. 

 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

 

So, yes he’s pretty much guaranteed to go undrafted.

 

I’d suggest that in a 12-team league, if you drafted today, you’d be hard pressed to find an RB backup/cop closer to a full share; Gio will play, and if Mixon goes down Gio will have 90% of the touches: Cinci has zero depth in the backfield. Compare this to the Raiders, where we'll see 4 RBs taking the field weekly (weakly?).  Brian Hill is ok, but he’s no threat to Gio. Makes Gio a good late round grab.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll gladly let my league mates draft/bench Gio while I watch Joe Mixon carry my team to the fantasy championship.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bernard is the perfect handcuff and all Mixon owners would be wise to own Gio as well.

 

Bernard has been a super reliable fantasy RB every time he's gotten the chance to be the guy in Cincinnati.  Someone provided good stats above.  Also look back to 2014 (I think it was) when Hill took over at the end of the year and was dominant -- Gio got off to a great start that year before getting injured (will never forget when he got pile-driven into the ground against the Colts and -- that one hit ruined the season for Gio owners and made the season for Hill owners).

 

Gio is simply to small to carry the load week in week out, year in year out.  But he is more than capable of delivering RB1 production for stretches.  He is a good runner, and obviously can catch. 

 

I'm always looking for RBs with attractive insurance policies -- a backup who can deliver close to the same production, who comes really cheap.  Gio is maybe the best.  Compare to Henry as a cuff for Murray last year, who is more than capable but way too expensive; or compare to James Conner for Pittsburgh who is cheap enough but less than capable.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, seanismorris said:

Every time someone adds or drops a player on waiver it costs them $1.

 

So if you dropped Gio to add Guice that’s $2.  The total fantasy point winner (collecting add/drop/trade) makes more than league Winner.

 

 

Supposedly that system is designed to create more team to team trading but it rarely does if you have a risk averse league and guys who are terrible at valuing players like Dak for Gurley even because of the 'points' production  and ignoring position scarcity.

 

 I was offered a spot in a league that charges for waiver wires. I passed because it penalizes those who do their daily research during the season keeping abreast of changing player situations, looking for incremental position edges and optimal weekly matchups. That system rewards those who have a 'good draft' or casuals who login 1x week with a set and forget mentality until injury or zero production forces them to the waiver.  if your strategy is stream QB's/kickers/te's why should u pay weekly to implement it?

Basically why should I pay to take risk and keep the waiver pool dynamic vs static?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Supposedly that system is designed to create more team to team trading but it rarely does if you have a risk averse league and guys who are terrible at valuing players like Dak for Gurley even because of the 'points' production  and ignoring position scarcity.

 

 I was offered a spot in a league that charges for waiver wires. I passed because it penalizes those who do their daily research during the season keeping abreast of changing player situations, looking for incremental position edges and optimal weekly matchups. That system rewards those who have a 'good draft' or casuals who login 1x week with a set and forget mentality until injury or zero production forces them to the waiver.  if your strategy is stream QB's/kickers/te's why should u pay weekly to implement it?

Basically why should I pay to take risk and keep the waiver pool dynamic vs static?

 

Interested in this discussion if we can move it to a more appropriate forum.  

 

Apologies for my role in sidetracking the Mixon thread 

Edited by Impreza178

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Bernard is the perfect handcuff and all Mixon owners would be wise to own Gio as well.

 

Bernard has been a super reliable fantasy RB every time he's gotten the chance to be the guy in Cincinnati.  Someone provided good stats above.  Also look back to 2014 (I think it was) when Hill took over at the end of the year and was dominant -- Gio got off to a great start that year before getting injured (will never forget when he got pile-driven into the ground against the Colts and -- that one hit ruined the season for Gio owners and made the season for Hill owners).

 

Gio is simply to small to carry the load week in week out, year in year out.  But he is more than capable of delivering RB1 production for stretches.  He is a good runner, and obviously can catch. 

 

I'm always looking for RBs with attractive insurance policies -- a backup who can deliver close to the same production, who comes really cheap.  Gio is maybe the best.  Compare to Henry as a cuff for Murray last year, who is more than capable but way too expensive; or compare to James Conner for Pittsburgh who is cheap enough but less than capable.

 

Agreed all in all, yet I'm higher on James Conner's ability / potential.

 

For me, I don't always cuff, and like you imply, cost has a lot to do with it (e.g. Henry last season). I think a key insurance policy / cuffportunity to be wary of exists in Minnesota: I'm a 'Nole, and I love Dalvin Cook as an RB, but I'm cautious regarding his durability. With McKinnon gone, only Latavius "the other" Murray remains. I'm not a LMurray fan, though he's demonstrated some chutzpa here and there. Unless the Vikings draft a capable RB, I see LMurray with a Gio-sized lion's share should Cook's health falter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Interesting 

 

best ball is like a lottery ticket- can’t really think of it like fantasy.  But we do have a good time over the course of the 2 hour auction.  Good practice for real leagues too- getting familiar with the board.  

 

I’ll hit u up for one sometime. 

 

 

Hit me up too

 

dilly dilly

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every season there is a handful of wild cards (on top of health) that appear poised to dictate how well my fantasy season will go.  I feel as if Mixon is one of those wild cards.  Guessing right on him is very important to my mind.

 

I'm willing to bet that Cincy's O-line is much better this season.  They've clearly made it a priority.  I bet all the focus being paid to the O-line pays off for Mixon.  

 

Gio is Gio.  In 2018, does he show worse,

better, or the same, as season's past?  I bet the former.  If anything, I bet his abilities/performance decline, rather than improve or stay the same.  Just a guess, but if correct, the door swings open for greater reliance on Mixon, assuming he kills it.

 

Mixon is a pivotable guy in my rankings and potential draft strategy.  Keep the meaningful input coming please.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All signs point to Mixon succeeding this year. Revamped OL, lid popping WR (Ross) and of course AJ, Eifert healthy and having to be accounted for, no Hill to snag any GL carries or BS starts, time to adapt to Lazors system. Lots of boxes checked of for success this year.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JohnD said:

All signs point to Mixon succeeding this year. Revamped OL, lid popping WR (Ross) and of course AJ, Eifert healthy and having to be accounted for, no Hill to snag any GL carries or BS starts, time to adapt to Lazors system. Lots of boxes checked of for success this year.

counting on Cordy Glenn, Eifert, and John Ross to be healthy, is a big thing to ask for.

Edited by Chippa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, JohnD said:

All signs point to Mixon succeeding this year. Revamped OL, lid popping WR (Ross) and of course AJ, Eifert healthy and having to be accounted for, no Hill to snag any GL carries or BS starts, time to adapt to Lazors system. Lots of boxes checked of for success this year.

How exactly is the OL revamped?  I anticipate them adding an offensive lineman tomorrow night but anything can happen.  All they've done is add an average LT and they lost their starting Center (albeit he wasn't vert good either).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

How exactly is the OL revamped?  I anticipate them adding an offensive lineman tomorrow night but anything can happen.  All they've done is add an average LT and they lost their starting Center (albeit he wasn't vert good either).

 

Glenn is well above average. They can get a top-2 center prospect in the 2nd-4th rd who will be much better than what they had. Plus Mixon has lost 15 lbs. All good signs.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

How exactly is the OL revamped?  I anticipate them adding an offensive lineman tomorrow night but anything can happen.  All they've done is add an average LT and they lost their starting Center (albeit he wasn't vert good either).

LOL get educated. Look at his career pff numbers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chippa said:

LOL get educated. Look at his career pff numbers

Have you looked?  Yes he's been above average before, that was also 3 years ago.

 

I still fail to see how adding 1 player revamps the worst offensive line in the league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recency bias is a pitfall we all fall victim to at some point. 

 

 We won’t know how good or bad the cincy o-line will be until we see them play this year. The addition of one quality player can make a significant difference, but we won’t know until we see. 

Edited by Mr2Saint
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Have you looked?  Yes he's been above average before, that was also 3 years ago.

 

I still fail to see how adding 1 player revamps the worst offensive line in the league.

3 years ago? You mean 2016. That’s the season before last. Christ. 

 

And yes, they need to draft a lineman within the first 2 rounds. Maybe even 2 linemen

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chippa said:

3 years ago? You mean 2016. That’s the season before last. Christ. 

He played 11 games in 2016 and was an AVERAGE to below average run blocker.  You do realize this is the JOE MIXON thread, right?  Not sure how his pass blocking ability is going to help the run game.

Edited by RMJ_12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.