smeeze

Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook

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11 hours ago, joshua18 said:

They can get a top-2 center prospect in the 2nd-4th rd who will be much better than what they had.

 

Cincinnati needs a linebacker in the 2nd-4th round: makes sense considering this is an even year, the time Burfict misses games for PEDS suspension; the following season, during an odd year, it’ll pay off when Burfict gets suspended for unsportsmanlike conduct.

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5 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

He played 11 games in 2016 and was an AVERAGE to below average run blocker.  You do realize this is the JOE MIXON thread, right?  Not sure how his pass blocking ability is going to help the run game.

 

Good pass and run games complement each other.  Glenn is an upgrade all around for sure.

 

The Cincy brass knows only too well how problematic the O-line was in 2017.  Sure, they could mess up again, but I'll wager that the emphasis they place on improving the O-line produces some positive results, and that those results boost Mixon prospects.

 

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14 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Good pass and run games complement each other.  Glenn is an upgrade all around for sure.

 

The Cincy brass knows only too well how problematic the O-line was in 2017.  Sure, they could mess up again, but I'll wager that the emphasis they place on improving the O-line produces some positive results, and that those results boost Mixon prospects.

 

Not only that-  but being a trusted pass protector means you are in the game down the stretch when you can’t afford your qb getting dump trucked.   A couple easy catches, maybe even a bonus late TD....

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Okay, you guys are right.  Adding Corey Glenn is going to bring the Bengals to elite status.  Mixon is now going for 1500/12.

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22 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Okay, you guys are right.  Adding Corey Glenn is going to bring the Bengals to elite status.  Mixon is now going for 1500/12.

Glenn’s “average” run blocking skills are a HUGE upgrade over what was there before.

 

Throw in the fact that Cincy is most likely drafting the center from Arkansas in the first round, I’d say that Mixon will be running behind a much better o-line than last year. Will they be elite? No. But it’ll be improved

Edited by Chippa

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23 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Okay, you guys are right.  Adding Corey Glenn is going to bring the Bengals to elite status.  Mixon is now going for 1500/12.

 

Strawman bashing eh? 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Okay, you guys are right.  Adding Corey Glenn is going to bring the Bengals to elite status.  Mixon is now going for 1500/12.

 

 

So he is going to be this fantasy seasons  version of gurley? I'm all in! :o

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22 minutes ago, Chippa said:

Glenn’s “average” run blocking skills are a HUGE upgrade over what was there before.

He graded out as the 47th best run blocking LT in 2016.  Are you still fighting this?

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

He graded out as the 47th best run blocking LT in 2016.  Are you still fighting this?

And cedric ogbuehi was much worse than that. So cincy just improved. 

 

Throw in the center from arkansas, and the line will be decent

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18 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

How exactly is the OL revamped?  I anticipate them adding an offensive lineman tomorrow night but anything can happen.  All they've done is add an average LT and they lost their starting Center (albeit he wasn't vert good either).

Going from Ogbuehi to Glenn is a significant improvement.  Throw in a likely first round pick of a top 3-5 OL tonight and most likely another OL in rd two and most people would call that a revamped line

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1 hour ago, JohnD said:

Going from Ogbuehi to Glenn is a significant improvement.  Throw in a likely first round pick of a top 3-5 OL tonight and most likely another OL in rd two and most people would call that a revamped line

Yes, let's just assume we know the future.

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12 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yes, let's just assume we know the future.

you're a weirdo

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The Rams OL went from one of the worst to one of the best in a single offseason with the additions of Andrew Whitworth at LT and John Sullivan at C. It's not crazy to suggest the Bengals could see a similar improvement with the addition of Glenn and some high draft picks on the OL.

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43 minutes ago, Chippa said:

you're a weirdo

Are you dense?  Someone here said that the Bengals O-line was already revamped pre-draft.  All they've done is add a LT who is an average run blocker at best.

 

Saying the O-line is revamped because they will "probably" draft an offensive lineman or two is backtracking a bit, but it's still assuming something that you have no control over is going to happen.

 

What if the Bengals draft a DB in the 1st round?  Is this O-line still "revamped"?

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17 minutes ago, smeeze said:

The Rams OL went from one of the worst to one of the best in a single offseason with the additions of Andrew Whitworth at LT and John Sullivan at C. It's not crazy to suggest the Bengals could see a similar improvement with the addition of Glenn and some high draft picks on the OL.

Both of those offensive lineman are good in run blocking.  A coaching change also did wonders for an underachieving team.  Something the Bengals should have done this year but did not.

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6 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Both of those offensive lineman are good in run blocking.  A coaching change also did wonders for an underachieving team.  Something the Bengals should have done this year but did not.

 

Agree 1000%, Marvin should have been gone years ago. 

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yes, let's just assume we know the future.

Saying the Bengals will draft an O lineman is about as hard to predict as saying the Browns will draft a QB.

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Are you dense?  Someone here said that the Bengals O-line was already revamped pre-draft.  All they've done is add a LT who is an average run blocker at best.

 

Saying the O-line is revamped because they will "probably" draft an offensive lineman or two is backtracking a bit, but it's still assuming something that you have no control over is going to happen.

 

What if the Bengals draft a DB in the 1st round?  Is this O-line still "revamped"?

It’s not revamped yet. But they already started the process by greatly improving their left tackle position. They’re going to draft a 1st round lineman most likely. So yes, after the draft, the line will be revamped. 

 

You’re a weirdo, mate

Edited by Chippa

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Price was the perfect pick.  He'll be an awesome leader for an improved O-line.  Cincy is dead serious about correcting its biggest weakness from last season.

 

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1) Joe Mixon faces the easiest RB strength of schedule in 2018.

 

 

---------------------

 

2) The Bengals have the overall 13th easiest strength of schedule per Warren Sharp, who's pretty damn good at this stuff.  Last year he had the Jaguars as the easiest strength of schedule, and was bearish on Fournette because of it -- better game scripts.  It's at least good that the Bengals aren't in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in strength of schedule here.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/79906/298/superior-strength-of-schedule?pg=2

 

---------------------

 

3) The offense is gonna look a lot different.

 

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/4/14/17234024/andy-dalton-ready-to-learn-bill-lazors-new-offense

 

Quote

The Bengals offense seems to be on the up swing with talent though, and Bill Lazor plans to bring a whole new playbook to bring in this new era of Bengals football. Of course many will note that Lazor was the offensive coordinator for 14 games last year, but he did that using Zampese’s offense.

 

Lazor’s changes will cause some pretty earth shaking changes considering how long Gruden’s foundation has been in place. That is something Dalton is looking forward to, according to Geoff Hobson of the Bengals official site.

 

“I think we’re going to be multiple. I think we’re going to do what we have to do to win and get the best possible matchups.”

 

This is great to hear considering Gruden ran on the concept of doing what you do, and forcing the defense to prove they can stop it. That may work out for a few years, but after seven years, NFL defenses get a pretty good idea of what is coming.

 

I love the concept of focusing on matchups.  Belichick, Shanahan, McVay all make it a point.  So that's at least refreshing to hear.

 

But I wanted to go back and look at Lazor's history to try and learn how we might expect him to use Mixon.

 

His recent history is limited:

- 2013 he was QB coach for Chip Kelly in Philly

- 2014 he was OC for the Miami Dolphins

- 2016 became QB coach in Cincy

- 2017 took over OC in Cincy

 

He tried to apply Kelly's spread dink-and-dunk in Miami.  It failed.  Is that because Tannehill was running the show?  Philbin?  Was it Lazor calling plays?  Was he the one responsible for calling a designed WR screen to RB Damien Williams on 3rd and 10 from the 15 yard line?  Was he the one who called two consecutive fades to Greg Jennings on 3rd and 4th and goal from the 3 yard line?  Is this his idea of exploiting matchups?  Notable that Lamar Miller averaged 12 and 11.7 points per game in 2014 and 2015.  But Miller peaked at 13.5 carries per game in Miami.

 

Similarly, in Cincinatti last year, they were 3rd to last in the league in rushing attempts.  Was that because of Lazor, or because of the crap OL and constant negative game script?  (The Bengals had the 8th easiest strength of schedule in 2017 per Warren Sharp).

 

Lazor's history as a QB coach, and his history of playcalling, lends me to believe that this is going to be more of a pass happy offense.  Mixon should excel in the pass game, and running in space (this is how Miller was able to be a fantasy RB1 on limited volume in Miami), but I'm really not sure that the 20-touch-per-game volume is going to be there.  There were 3 games, though, where he did meet-or-exceed 18 carries per game in 2017, after Jeremy Hill got hurt.  But Mixon himself then struggled through some injuries. 

 

I still go back to Lamar Miller, though.  If he can get to 12 standard points per game, and RB1 status, on those Miami teams, then it makes me feel a hell of a lot better about Mixon's upside in Cincinatti in 2018.  It's really all I have to go off of.

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Thanks for the write up - great post.  I came across that strength of schedule article last night on my phone, and thought it was great.  Unique way to assess SOS.  Mixon can run and catch.  I agree Gio will still be there to be the "passing down back", but Mixon excels there as well.  Gio isn't going to get 100% of the RB targets, I'm sure there will be plenty for Mixon this year.  I completely agree with the Lamar Miller comparison while he was in Miami, and I think Mixon can be even a bit better.

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3 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I think Mixon can be even a bit better.

 

For the record, I think Mixon can be a LOT better.  Depends on 1) total rushing volume, and 2) receiving split with Bernard.

 

Miller didn't have a capable RB like Gio to fight for carries with.  Damien Williams is just another guy.  But I get the sense (from volume trends last year, drafting Walton this year to replace Gio down the road, and from general coach speak and beat reporting) that they want Mixon to be the bell cow, and Gio only to support.

 

Bernard had 3.8 recs per game last year.  Mixon had 2.1 (includes injured weeks).  CMC led RBs with 7.1.  Bell was next with 6.6.

If we just flip it to 4 for Mixon and 2 for Bernard, that's 60+ recs per year for Mixon.  Easily 500 yards and a TD or 2 in there.

That assumes that he gets the bellcow treatment, though.  I think he will get it.

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My league generally drafts after the last preseason game. Where do we think Mixon’s ADP will be by that point? I think that between coach speak, people slowly realizing his opportunity this year, and preseason, he will take a pretty significant jump by draft day. I’m thinking mid-late second round. Thoughts?

Edited by FinsUp24

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2 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

My league generally drafts after the last preseason game. Where do we think Mixon’s ADP will be by that point? I think that between coach speak, people slowly realizing his opportunity this year, and preseason, he will take a pretty significant jump by draft day. I’m thinking late second round. Thoughts?

Likely some people who will jump on him mid 2nd. But likely late second. The way receivers performed last year, it's gonna be a fire sale for backs. 

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1 minute ago, FinsUp24 said:

My league generally drafts after the last preseason game. Where do we think Mixon’s ADP will be by that point? I think that between coach speak, people slowly realizing his opportunity this year, and preseason, he will take a pretty significant jump by draft day. I’m thinking late second round. Thoughts?

 

I'd agree - he'll be a late 2nd round pick come late summer draft time. I can see him getting selected in the same range as Cook, McCoy, Freeman.

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