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Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook

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3 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Likely some people who will jump on him mid 2nd. But likely late second. The way receivers performed last year, it's gonna be a fire sale for backs. 

Right now in 12 man standard leagues he's looking early 3rd but it is climbing.  I wouldn't be surprised if he goes 2nd round if things keep looking good for him.

 

As mentioned above the big question is what will Gio's workload be like and will it impact Mixon?  I do agree the O-line was terrible last year so it can only get better. Mixon also started to play better as the season went on. He will have another offseason to prepare and should be able to hit the ground running.

 

But in this day an age the true workhorse backs are rare.  Even if an RB could handle a full load the coaches want to mix in the back-up(s) to keep everyone fresh - especially if they look like they are going to the playoffs.  Lots of potential with Mixon, be curious to see the workload in preseason and if it can shed some light on this backfield.

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Mixon did not look good last season. I'm not just basing this off of his 3.5 YPA. He looked much slower and didn't show the burst he had at Oklahoma. Not that my opinion matters in regards to what Cincy will do, but I don't think Mixon is properly used getting 20 totes a game. He should be getting 12-14 with 3-4 catches. That being said, Cincy has nobody else to turn to on the early downs - and Mixon's strengths match the strengths of Gio. I'm torn on what to do with him at the end of the 2nd round of dynasty startups. 

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O-line is fixed. Plenty of receivers and open running lanes.

 

Top 5.

 

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1 hour ago, Mr2Saint said:

I'll never forget when Mixon carried Clowney on his back on TNF last year. I fell in love.

 

Me either. Exact same feelings. 

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10 hours ago, GhostOfCap said:

"Mixon did not look good last season. I'm not just basing this off of his 3.5 YPA. He looked much slower and didn't show the burst he had at Oklahoma. Not that my opinion matters in regards to what Cincy will do, but I don't think Mixon is properly used getting 20 totes a game. He should be getting 12-14 with 3-4 catches. That being said, Cincy has nobody else to turn to on the early downs - and Mixon's strengths match the strengths of Gio. I'm torn on what to do with him at the end of the 2nd round of dynasty startups." 

 

Mixon is a low-center, chiseled rock & showing like a guy that's dialed. He possesses very good speed & slip. Good size, excellent pad level & finisher, a legit every down player. Does a better job than you might otherwise think to protect & minimize the available surface area for would be tacklers. He's listed taller but he's more of a 5'11" guy with a longer neck. I don't know about the Bengals, but if you're in the front and land Gurley, Mixon is an interesting prospect if Henry isn't there. You're saying you will be in that slot, ok, so you need to determine which players you like better and which ones you don't. 

 

There are two things you can do to feel better about drafting him at the back of the 2nd. One is to keep taking RBs until you feel good about what you've done at the position. Or, I think you could really get after WR and still come back for the mid round targets like Montgomery, Penny, Michel & Guice. The two RBs behind Monty have earned playing time & they're going to get it, but he's still going to be their lead dog. The other thing, as mentioned, is to take control of the Cincinnati backfield. I think with them drafting Miami Walton, Bernard's role doesn't change with something happening to Mixon. If they run an effective stretch play or anything that threatens to get wide off the snap, omg. Walton can see even the slimmest backside crease & cut up into it. But once in the hole, that's where he's really dangerous. A defender crashing too hard is a guy he can make miss with often a considerable vacuum behind it. As of now you wouldn't have to expend any draft capital to have him!    

 

    

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16 hours ago, GhostOfCap said:

Mixon did not look good last season. I'm not just basing this off of his 3.5 YPA. He looked much slower and didn't show the burst he had at Oklahoma. Not that my opinion matters in regards to what Cincy will do, but I don't think Mixon is properly used getting 20 totes a game. He should be getting 12-14 with 3-4 catches. That being said, Cincy has nobody else to turn to on the early downs - and Mixon's strengths match the strengths of Gio. I'm torn on what to do with him at the end of the 2nd round of dynasty startups. 

The last 6 weeks were a lot different for Mixon than the start.  The last 4 games he started to look a lot better with a 5.0ypc (51-256 rushing). In those last 4 games he also put up 7-80 in receiving which is a nice bonus.

 

There are obviously some questions still out there with Mixon and that offensive line but one has to look at the season as a whole an it started to improve as it went on.  5.0ypc in the last 4 games is very good.

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Any threat of Walton stealing work from Mixon?  Or was he drafted to simply fill out the roster and replace Hill?  I'm all in on Mixon - I think hell finish top 10 this year.  But is Walton someone to be nervous about?

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23 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Any threat of Walton stealing work from Mixon?  Or was he drafted to simply fill out the roster and replace Hill?  I'm all in on Mixon - I think hell finish top 10 this year.  But is Walton someone to be nervous about?

 

Probably not. Mixon is a beast, I doubt he loses work to a 4th round rookie. Walton looks like a nice handcuff at best, although he is pretty SPARQ-y.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/mark-walton/

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19 hours ago, jmausen said:

O-line is fixed. Plenty of receivers and open running lanes.

 

Top 5.

 

An average to below average run blocking LT and a rookie Center isn't exactly what I call "fixed".  We don't even know if the rookie is good yet.

 

I actually like Mixon this year, but top 5 should be in the bold predictions thread.

Edited by RMJ_12

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3 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

"Any threat of Walton stealing work from Mixon? Or was he drafted to simply fill out the roster and replace Hill? I'm all in on Mixon - I think he'll finish top 10 this year. But is Walton someone to be nervous about?"

 

I think you & others have it right, it's down to the play of those around Mixon. Early on we may see Walton factor in the return game & anytime they successfully establish Mixon & they're up by several scores or when Mixon needs a blow. As a sleeper, Walton's a favorite of mine & would've preferred he end up somewhere else. But my main point concerning him is that he's the one to spell Mixon should anything unexpected occur.

 

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Anyone have some helpful analysis on the bengals Oline situation? Price and Glenn should both be solid. Is the rest of the Oline going to be returning from last year? I believe there is a new Oline coach, correct? Does he have a good track record?

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12 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

Anyone have some helpful analysis on the bengals Oline situation? Price and Glenn should both be solid. Is the rest of the Oline going to be returning from last year? I believe there is a new Oline coach, correct? Does he have a good track record?

I’ve been reading in on the bengal’s fan forums because I have been extremely interested in mixon and was curious about the o-line as well. They seem to be confident that the o-line cannot be worse than last year, and it has a really good chance to improve to an at least average bunch with the new signings and some improvement. I couldn’t find much on the new coach though, can’t be worse than last years coach. 

 

Keep in mind they are fans so there is some probable hopeful thinking involved, but as a neutral party I tend to agree with them. I like Mixon as a late 2nd round pick this year he’s going to be the workhorse. 

Edited by Breesus

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1 hour ago, Breesus said:

I’ve been reading in on the bengal’s fan forums because I have been extremely interested in mixon and was curious about the o-line as well. They seem to be confident that the o-line cannot be worse than last year, and it has a really good chance to improve to an at least average bunch with the new signings and some improvement. I couldn’t find much on the new coach though, can’t be worse than last years coach. 

 

Keep in mind they are fans so there is some probable hopeful thinking involved, but as a neutral party I tend to agree with them. I like Mixon as a late 2nd round pick this year he’s going to be the workhorse. 

I’m not a buyer in the 2nd.  Gio was the better back last year...

 

I’d give Mixon a shot in the 4th, but there’s to much hype without enough to back it up.  Mixon theoretically should be good this year, but he’s getting drafted with slam dunk players.

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

I’m not a buyer in the 2nd.  Gio was the better back last year...

 

I’d give Mixon a shot in the 4th, but there’s to much hype without enough to back it up.  Mixon theoretically should be good this year, but he’s getting drafted with slam dunk players.

I am hoping to grab him around the 3rd/4th round. Pretty spot on with that analogy. He should put up great numbers being the main RB, but hes on the bengals.

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3 hours ago, DancingGnome said:

I am hoping to grab him around the 3rd/4th round. Pretty spot on with that analogy. He should put up great numbers being the main RB, but hes on the bengals.

I would love to get him in the early 3rd, but the way RB's have been going I just don't see how a RB who has been publicly stated to be the 3 down "bell-cow" will last that long, especially one as talented as Mixon. 

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45 minutes ago, Breesus said:

I would love to get him in the early 3rd, but the way RB's have been going I just don't see how a RB who has been publicly stated to be the 3 down "bell-cow" will last that long, especially one as talented as Mixon. 

Here’s a look at who’s being drafted around Mixon:

22 LeSean McCoy BUF/11 RB 13 22 37 21 21 19
23 Rob Gronkowski NE/11 TE 1 24 25 23 24 23
24 (+2) Jerick McKinnon SF/11 RB 14 25 30 26 22 25
25 Travis Kelce KC/12 TE 2 23 26 24 29 26
26 (-2) Tyreek Hill KC/12 WR 10 31 27 25 30 27
27 Doug Baldwin SEA/7 WR 11 27 38 30 27 29
28 Adam Thielen MIN/10 WR 12 26 36 29 28 31
29 Jordan Howard CHI/5 RB 15 29 31 28 26 22
30 T.Y. Hilton IND/9 WR 13 28 43 33 36 30
31 Joe Mixon CIN/9 RB 16 34 23 27 25 28
32 (+1) Larry Fitzgerald ARI/9 WR 14 30 58 37 31 41
33 (-1) Zach Ertz PHI/9 TE 3 33 39 32 37 33
34 Kenyan Drake MIA/11 RB 17 35 55 31 40 34
35 Aaron Rodgers GB/7 QB 1 32 18 35 39 35
36 (+2) Stefon Diggs MIN/10 WR 15 (+1) 38 33 38 34 38

 

I can see the case for taking Mixon over the other RBs available.  But taking Mixon over the WRs/TEs/QBs available...

 

Could you pull the trigger on Mixon?

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3 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I’m not a buyer in the 2nd.  Gio was the better back last year.

 

Mixon is a supremely talented back—strong, agile, and soft-handed—so this ^^ statement is hard to believe.

 

But it’s true. 

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24 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Here’s a look at who’s being drafted around Mixon:

22 LeSean McCoy BUF/11 RB 13 22 37 21 21 19
23 Rob Gronkowski NE/11 TE 1 24 25 23 24 23
24 (+2) Jerick McKinnon SF/11 RB 14 25 30 26 22 25
25 Travis Kelce KC/12 TE 2 23 26 24 29 26
26 (-2) Tyreek Hill KC/12 WR 10 31 27 25 30 27
27 Doug Baldwin SEA/7 WR 11 27 38 30 27 29
28 Adam Thielen MIN/10 WR 12 26 36 29 28 31
29 Jordan Howard CHI/5 RB 15 29 31 28 26 22
30 T.Y. Hilton IND/9 WR 13 28 43 33 36 30
31 Joe Mixon CIN/9 RB 16 34 23 27 25 28
32 (+1) Larry Fitzgerald ARI/9 WR 14 30 58 37 31 41
33 (-1) Zach Ertz PHI/9 TE 3 33 39 32 37 33
34 Kenyan Drake MIA/11 RB 17 35 55 31 40 34
35 Aaron Rodgers GB/7 QB 1 32 18 35 39 35
36 (+2) Stefon Diggs MIN/10 WR 15 (+1) 38 33 38 34 38

 

I can see the case for taking Mixon over the other RBs available.  But taking Mixon over the WRs/TEs/QBs available...

 

Could you pull the trigger on Mixon?

Yeah I see your point. I think it just depends on how you perceive the value of the players. I wouldn’t have a problem is somebody went with one of the top tier TE’s right there. I personally think Mixon is worth more in the early 20’s than all of those WR’s and QB’s (because I think WR is really deep this year compared to RB). Shady will get tons of volume as well and Freeman will have less touches but will be on a better offense so there’s may be more scoring opportunity. 

 

I’m worried about shady being 30 and the offense being absolutely horrible and I like Mixon’s touch situation more than Freeman. So I like Mixon there above the rest for these reasons. But that is just my opinion and your’s can (and is probably) way different, depending on how you view WR depth, and if you like other RB’s (shady, Freeman, McKinnon) more than Mixon. 

Edited by Breesus

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14 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Mixon is a supremely talented back—strong, agile, and soft-handed—so this ^^ statement is hard to believe.

 

But it’s true. 

What’s interesting is Cincinnati went from 9th in rushing attempts in 2016 to 29th in 2017.

 

Before we blame everything on the O-line:  Gio went from 3.7 in 2016 to 4.4 in 2017

 

Mixon was 3.5 AVE in 2017.

 

One thing we have to keep in mind is Mixon was drafted as elite talent, but with major character concerns.

 

Are those “character concerns” biting the Bengals in the a**?

 

I think everyone’s job is one the line for betting on Mixon, and the team being terrible in 2017.  They have no choice calling Mixon the “bell cow”...

 

I’m going to bet against Mixon living up to 2nd/3rd round ADP.  Gio going to get his 100 carries + 40 catches (at least) regardless of Mixon.

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Is gio better than mixon? Doubt it. But is gio better than Hill? 110% and I’m still salty Hill was given so many carries when he sucked 

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Mixon is tough for me.  I have first pick and I don't think I would take him until 4.12.  I think he may be overvalued in the 3rd.  He definitely should not go in the 2nd.  We will know more after a couple of months.     

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1 hour ago, Beerdown said:

Mixon is tough for me.  I have first pick and I don't think I would take him until 4.12.  I think he may be overvalued in the 3rd.  He definitely should not go in the 2nd.  We will know more after a couple of months.     

Couldn’t disagree more.    When they gave him the job in earnest he was very productive.    Now an upgraded line, a year of experience, and no competition- just a great COP.   

 

Hes almost a no brainer pick in the third for me, unless Evans or AJG fall

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Have to decide between keeping Mix On Mix Off in the 4th or Young D Hen in the 7th. Nicknames aren't my strong suit.

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1 minute ago, beotos said:

Have to decide between keeping Mix On Mix Off in the 4th or Young D Hen in the 7th. Nicknames aren't my strong suit.

Yikes back to the drawing board :P

 

id tend to go Mixon in most cases but if u want a more thorough answer post it in AC 

Edited by Impreza178

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