smeeze

Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

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Smokin' Joe Mixon had an up-and-down rookie season where he showed flashes of his elite patience and elusiveness but was held back by an ineffective offense and an underwhelming offensive line. Unfortunately, Marvin Lewis was brought back to continue his tenure of mediocrity. I think Mixon will be a 1st round pick in 2019 and is one of the most talented RBs in the NFL today. Change my mind.

 

 

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Love the talent. Recently read there considering him as their bell-cow. A couple line improvements and his stock is on the up.

 

Might be hard pressed for a 1st round fantasy grade tho. Theres just too many others worthy of a 1st before him i think. Bell, zeke, d.j, gurley, gordon, brown, deandre, obj, fournette, hunt all before him. Could argue cook, green, thomas, henry, freeman, kamara as well. I think were going back to the days of RBs, with such a premium i think youll see him go later 2nd/3rd

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9 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Love the talent. Recently read there considering him as their bell-cow. A couple line improvements and his stock is on the up.

 

Might be hard pressed for a 1st round fantasy grade tho. Theres just too many others worthy of a 1st before him i think. Bell, zeke, d.j, gurley, gordon, brown, deandre, obj, fournette, hunt all before him. Could argue cook, green, thomas, henry, freeman, kamara as well. I think were going back to the days of RBs, with such a premium i think youll see him go later 2nd/3rd

 

Definitely not the 1st.  I think the 2nd and 3rd round turn is exactly where he'll end up.

 

Rough 1st -- Zeke, Gurley, Bell, DJ, AB, Hopkins, ODB, Kamara, Fournette, Gordon, Hunt, Ingram

Rough 2nd--  Cook, Julio, AJG, Evans, Howard, Freeman, McCoy, Gronk, Rodgers, Tyreek, Adams, MThomas

(Hoping to avoid arguments with people who think Thomas should go before Ingram -- that's not the point of this post)

There is also Barkley, Hyde (if SF), Henry, Keenan, CMC, Alshon who will probably be around that turn. 

 

I agree with you that the value of RBs will probably push Mixon up ahead of some of these WRs and the Hyde/CMC types.

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54 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

Might be hard pressed for a 1st round fantasy grade tho. 

 

 

12 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Definitely not the 1st.  I think the 2nd and 3rd round turn is exactly where he'll end up.

 

 

I just want to point out when I said I believe he'll be a 1st round pick I was talking about 2019, as in his his 2018 performance/numbers will put him ahead of most of the WRs listed.

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2 hours ago, smeeze said:

I think Mixon will be a 1st round pick in 2019 and is one of the most talented RBs in the NFL today. Change my mind.

 

 

2 hours ago, smeeze said:

Unfortunately, Marvin Lewis was brought back to continue his tenure of mediocrity. 

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I've gotta say, I'm not sure what you saw from his season that makes you think he's about to boom.    None of the team factors that held him back in 2017 have changed.   Its still the same offense, and likely the same s--- offensive line.   At least now, Jeremy Hill should be gone, but late in the year Hill wasn't in the mix at all, and Mixon was, at best, rotating decent games with bad ones.     He could put up some points on a marquee matchup (vs CLE comes to mind) but he had no game at all against a good D, it seemed.   It was telling to me in week 16 when Mixon went down, and Bernard came in and put up a better FF week than Mixon did the entire season.   RB2, and nothing more at this point.    

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1 minute ago, BrianM said:

I've gotta say, I'm not sure what you saw from his season that makes you think he's about to boom.    None of the team factors that held him back in 2017 have changed.   Its still the same offense, and likely the same s--- offensive line.   At least now, Jeremy Hill should be gone, but late in the year Hill wasn't in the mix at all, and Mixon was, at best, rotating decent games with bad ones.     He could put up some points on a marquee matchup (vs CLE comes to mind) but he had no game at all against a good D, it seemed.   It was telling to me in week 16 when Mixon went down, and Bernard came in and put up a better FF week than Mixon did the entire season.   RB2, and nothing more at this point.    

 

I'll be shocked if cincy doesn't take major steps to improve their oline. 

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Maybe Buffalo can just give them Cordy Glenn, for services rendered

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I'll be shocked if cincy doesn't take major steps to improve their oline. 

I’ll be shocked if (team xyz) doesn’t take major steps to improve their oline.

 

You could say the same thing about 25+ teams.  

 

Improving the oline seems to be the most difficult thing a team can attempt in the NFL... finding a franchise QB is easier.

 

I wouldn’t consider Mixon until the 4th round.

 

Mixon wasn’t that active in the passing game... that will continue to be a concern until Gio is gone.

 

 

Edited by seanismorris
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3 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I’ll be shocked if (team xyz) doesn’t take major steps to improve their oline.

 

You could say the same thing about 25+ teams.  

 

Improving the oline seems to be the most difficult thing a team can attempt in the NFL... finding a franchise QB is easier.

 

I wouldn’t consider Mixon until the 4th round.

 

Mixon wasn’t that active in the passing game... that will continue to be a concern until Gio is gone.

 

 

Mixon played 385 snaps and got 34 targets with 30 rec.   If you compare that with the best Receiving back in the league Bell who was in on 945 snaps and got 106 targets with 85 rec.  That is one rec per 11.1 snaps for Bell while Mixon got one rec per 12.8 snaps.  Not saying he is gonna ever be Bell but just showing that they were not afraid to use him in the passing game.  

 

Have a feeling he will be late second to third rounder this year with the chance to be a first if Cincy improves in a few areas(head coach and line)

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12 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Mixon played 385 snaps and got 34 targets with 30 rec.   If you compare that with the best Receiving back in the league Bell who was in on 945 snaps and got 106 targets with 85 rec.  That is one rec per 11.1 snaps for Bell while Mixon got one rec per 12.8 snaps.  Not saying he is gonna ever be Bell but just showing that they were not afraid to use him in the passing game.  

 

Have a feeling he will be late second to third rounder this year with the chance to be a first if Cincy improves in a few areas(head coach and line)

 

 

I smell Giovani bernard lurking and vulturing passes and td's  with a touch of hot hand in ppr.  He is not a zero talent backup or cop rb

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8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I smell Giovani bernard lurking and vulturing passes and td's  with a touch of hot hand in ppr.  He is not a zero talent backup or cop rb

Well Gio saw a average of 20 snaps per game before Mixon injury vs Pit.  That was on a team playing from behind every game.  

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5 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I’ll be shocked if (team xyz) doesn’t take major steps to improve their oline.

 

You could say the same thing about 25+ teams.  

 

Improving the oline seems to be the most difficult thing a team can attempt in the NFL... finding a franchise QB is easier.

 

 

 

By major steps I mean at least two new starters.

 

I don't expect 25 teams to do that. 

 

And franchises make it a lot harder than it should be.   Rams and Vikings from last year stand out off the top of my head. 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I smell Giovani bernard lurking and vulturing passes and td's  with a touch of hot hand in ppr.  He is not a zero talent backup or cop rb

COP he most certainly is.    One of the most talented in the league.    In todays NFL just about every starting back has a version of Gio behind him so I don’t hold that against Mixon.  He is now the clear starter going into camp and I expect big things this year. 

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

COP he most certainly is.    One of the most talented in the league.    In todays NFL just about every starting back has a version of Gio behind him so I don’t hold that against Mixon.  He is now the clear starter going into camp and I expect big things this year. 

 

 

but the point is he doesnt suck as a cop.  Very easy for coaches to get too clever on play calling with the cop rb and it kills the primary ball carriers value.  i smell frustration owning a cincy rb. it's not the talent I care about it's the team and how the talent is used. Exhibit A thru E guys who owned, Titans, Falcons, cincy,  tampa,Minn,Jets, rb's last season- none of them got u to the fantasy title in competitive leagues.    Mixon as I currently  forecast with that problematic offense is a rb2/3.   

Mixon could turn into pre-Deshaun Lamar Miller looks great on paper every season and the reality of the season hits you in the face with mediocre weekly production because the offense just sux as a whole.

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

but the point is he doesnt suck as a cop.  Very easy for coaches to get too clever on play calling with the cop rb and it kills the primary ball carriers value.  i smell frustration owning a cincy rb. it's not the talent I care about it's the team and how the talent is used. Exhibit A thru E guys who owned, Titans, Falcons, cincy,  tampa,Minn,Jets, rb's last season- none of them got u to the fantasy title in competitive leagues.    Mixon as I currently  forecast with that problematic offense is a rb2/3.   

Mixon could turn into pre-Deshaun Lamar Miller looks great on paper every season and the reality of the season hits you in the face with mediocre weekly production because the offense just sux as a whole.

 

No he doesn’t suck.  But if Mixon gets 15-20 touches- even if the offense isn’t great- he should return rb2 value.     That’s not at all an unreasonable expectation.   

 

We will see how the line improves- he will struggle to be a rb1 until then.  But the talent is undeniable imo. 

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32 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

No he doesn’t suck.  But if Mixon gets 15-20 touches- even if the offense isn’t great- he should return rb2 value.     That’s not at all an unreasonable expectation.   

 

We will see how the line improves- he will struggle to be a rb1 until then.  But the talent is undeniable imo. 

He needs 50% more touches to be worth 2nd round consideration.

 

An improved oline will get Mixon more yards/carry (above 4) but even with 50% more TDs that would only give 6 TDs.

 

People taking Mixon in the 3rd are projecting the “perfect storm”.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

He needs 50% more touches to be worth 2nd round consideration.

 

An improved oline will get Mixon more yards/carry (above 4) but even with 50% more TDs that would only give 6 TDs.

 

People taking Mixon in the 3rd are projecting the “perfect storm”.

 

 

I mean if we are going to go on worthless projections.  Say last year was a fluke since the Bengals only got 6 rushing tds vs the 3 year average of 18.  Say they go back to the three year average and Mixon gets the same percentage of tds(not that far fetched).  That gives Mixon 12 rushing tds next year.

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29 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

He needs 50% more touches to be worth 2nd round consideration.

An improved oline will get Mixon more yards/carry (above 4) but even with 50% more TDs that would only give 6 TDs.

 

In the 4 games following Jeremy Hill's season-ending injury:

Rush: 13, 9, 20, 23

Recs: 3, 1, 2, 3

Total Touches:16, 10, 22, 26 (Avg 18.5)

3 touchdowns.

Standard points: 10.6, 10.0, 4.9, 22.5 (Avg 12)

 

Small sample.  Mixon got hurt right after.  But we're talking about volume and touchdowns and they are there for the starting workhorse in Cincy's offense.

 

Quote

People taking Mixon in the 3rd are projecting the “perfect storm”.

 

Really just forecasting some normal rainfall, cuz there are clearly rain clouds on the horizon if you just look.

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5 minutes ago, youngrice said:

I mean if we are going to go on worthless projections.  Say last year was a fluke since the Bengals only got 6 rushing tds vs the 3 year average of 18.  Say they go back to the three year average and Mixon gets the same percentage of tds(not that far fetched).  That gives Mixon 12 rushing tds next year.

Funny thing with stats...  only 2 players rushed for more than 9TDs in 2017.

 

I don’t think anyone is arguing about Mixons talent, but in fantasy we look for value.  Mixon is a good value in the 4th, and a terrible value in the 2nd.  In the 3rd Mixon is a reach, and depending on where you draft in the 3rd, a poor value.

 

Mixon is going around the same time as Derrick Henry.  Henry projects as a much better value.

 

Who are you going to take Mixon ahead of? Mixon is currently ranked 47th by FantasyPros...

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30 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

In the 4 games following Jeremy Hill's season-ending injury:

Rush: 13, 9, 20, 23

Recs: 3, 1, 2, 3

Total Touches:16, 10, 22, 26 (Avg 18.5)

3 touchdowns.

Standard points: 10.6, 10.0, 4.9, 22.5 (Avg 12)

 

Small sample.  Mixon got hurt right after.  But we're talking about volume and touchdowns and they are there for the starting workhorse in Cincy's offense.

 

 

Really just forecasting some normal rainfall, cuz there are clearly rain clouds on the horizon if you just look.

I’m my book Mixon had 1 good game (15+ points PPR) and that was against the Browns.

 

Sure... 2018 should be better, but Gio caps his upside.

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11 hours ago, BrianM said:

I've gotta say, I'm not sure what you saw from his season that makes you think he's about to boom.    None of the team factors that held him back in 2017 have changed.   Its still the same offense, and likely the same s--- offensive line.   At least now, Jeremy Hill should be gone, but late in the year Hill wasn't in the mix at all, and Mixon was, at best, rotating decent games with bad ones.     He could put up some points on a marquee matchup (vs CLE comes to mind) but he had no game at all against a good D, it seemed.   It was telling to me in week 16 when Mixon went down, and Bernard came in and put up a better FF week than Mixon did the entire season.   RB2, and nothing more at this point.    

 

Free agency and the draft haven't happened yet. 

 

Zero percent chance this team stays as is heading into next season. 

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12 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

I'll be shocked if cincy doesn't take major steps to improve their oline. 

 

I would, Mike Brown is a cheapskate.

 

I didn't see anything from Joe Mixon in the running game that suggested he wasn't a JAG.  And he was on one of my teams too.  He's good in the passing game but that's not his bread and butter.

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Sounds eerily similar to the 2016 Melvin Gordon thread and the 2017 Todd Gurley thread.

 

At the end of the day here is the situation that Mixon will be in. 

 

60%+ snaps. 18+ touches a game. Decent offense. Good use in the passing game. 

 

How many guys guys can you draft in the third/fourth that don’t have someone else to compete with for carries? I don’t see much of a difference between Hunt and Mixon. They’re in similar situations and I’d rather take Mixon currently. 

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