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Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

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8 hours ago, GreatestShowonTurf said:

I didn't see anything from Joe Mixon in the running game that suggested he wasn't a JAG.  And he was on one of my teams too.  He's good in the passing game but that's not his bread and butter.

 

Laughable. You obviously weren't watching or your ability to evaluate is comically bad. 

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11 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I’m my book Mixon had 1 good game (15+ points PPR) and that was against the Browns.

 

Sure... 2018 should be better, but Gio caps his upside.

 

Anything over 10 points is good in my book.  12 points per game is about the cut off for RB1 status.  Sprinkle in a couple 'big' games (20+) and you get to that average.  I expect anywhere from 7-14 points in average weeks for my RB1, with a few of those blow ups sprinkled in.

 

Gio caps upside, yes.  Which is why no one's talking about him going in the top tier of Zeke, Gurley, Bell, DJ with no competition for touches.  Literally every RB after that is competing with someone.  Gordon/Ekeler, Fournette/Yeldon, Ingram/Kamara, Hunt/West(/Ware?), etc etc.

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8 hours ago, GreatestShowonTurf said:

I didn't see anything from Joe Mixon in the running game that suggested he wasn't a JAG.

 

Go watch more tape.

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9 hours ago, boltup15 said:

Sounds eerily similar to the 2016 Melvin Gordon thread and the 2017 Todd Gurley thread.

 

At the end of the day here is the situation that Mixon will be in. 

 

60%+ snaps. 18+ touches a game. Decent offense. Good use in the passing game. 

 

How many guys guys can you draft in the third/fourth that don’t have someone else to compete with for carries? I don’t see much of a difference between Hunt and Mixon. They’re in similar situations and I’d rather take Mixon currently. 

 

One could also argue we're trending into 2017 Isaiah Crowell territory as well.    Mixon is more talented than Crowell, yes, but he, like Crowell last year, is on a team that has a better chance of being a bottom feeder than it does a playoff team, and those teams fall behind a lot in games.  Mixon can catch, but in 2nd half hurry up comeback games, of which there should be several, you're going to see Gio in there, just like Duke Johnson.   

 

Mixon over Hunt seems ludicrous- maybe on talent there's a comparison, but Hunt's in a situation where he'll have 4th quarter closeout carries way more often.  Those last 40 yards a week and 3-4 TD's he gets overall to put games away make a big difference.

 

All of that said, Mixon is still a RB2- this is NOT an insult to him.    The RB pool is super deep right now, and that pool will add some FA's and rookies too once the chips fall into place.  Cincy could tune up his value if they draft some linemen (we know FA signings are unlikely with their front office) and by not adding a back of value, effectively doubling down on Mixon as a true lead back.    Its just a huge reach in my eyes to bump him up as a RB1

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, GreatestShowonTurf said:

 

I would, Mike Brown is a cheapskate.

 

I didn't see anything from Joe Mixon in the running game that suggested he wasn't a JAG.  And he was on one of my teams too.  He's good in the passing game but that's not his bread and butter.

 

 

I'm never one to use the JAG title because every rb has his day or game now in the case of Mixon I do notice that his running style does not fit the cincy o-line. Mixon from what i have seen waits for his o-line to open holes for him beofore he makes his move which is great when you have a kick butt o-line that can execute like the Steelers but in the case of cincy, it doesnt happen enough and he doesnt create enough on his own to have big runs.  Too many guys can't separate the talent potential from a bad offense. Not every talented skill player can transform an offense.  it's very hard to get excited about a rb on an offense that has a tough time moving the ball on the ground, Granted cincy is not Seahawks bad but the are still bad

Edited by dashoe

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I'm never one to use the JAG title because every rb has his day or game now in the case of Mixon I do notice that his running style does not fit the cincy o-line. Mixon from what i have seen waits for his o-line to open holes for him beofore he makes his move which is great when you have a kick butt o-line that can execute like the Steelers but in the case of cincy, it doesnt happen enough and he doesnt create enough on his own to have big runs.  Too many guys can't separate the talent potential from a bad offense. Not every talented skill player can transform an offense.  it's very hard to get excited about a rb on an offense that has a tough time moving the ball on the ground, Granted cincy is not Seahawks bad but the are still bad

 

I can't think of a single rb that isn't at the mercy of their oline in some way or form.  It was a jailbreak in the backfield. 

 

I thought cincy was Seahawks bad last year.   Bottom 5 in the league for sure.

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Just now, 96mnc said:

 

I can't think of a single rb that isn't at the mercy of their oline in some way or form.  It was a jailbreak in the backfield. 

 

I thought cincy was Seahawks bad last year.   Bottom 5 in the league for sure.

 

 

There are rb's who are elusive despite what the mediocrity of their o-lines last couple of years shady,  forte in his prime and the greatest of all time Barry Sanders. 

 Mixon syle is a wait , wait, wait, now go style.  Doesnt fit with the cincy oline talent. You need a DJ type who doesnt need his o-line to spring him just a QB who can hit him in stride past the line of scrimmage

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

There are rb's who are elusive despite what the mediocrity of their o-lines last couple of years shady,  forte in his prime and the greatest of all time Barry Sanders. 

 Mixon syle is a wait , wait, wait, now go style.  Doesnt fit with the cincy oline talent. You need a DJ type who doesnt need his o-line to spring him just a QB who can hit him in stride past the line of scrimmage

 

Mediocrity would be a COLOSSAL improvement over what the CIN OL was last year. 

 

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5 hours ago, BrianM said:

One could also argue we're trending into 2017 Isaiah Crowell territory as well.    Mixon is more talented than Crowell, yes, but he, like Crowell last year, is on a team that has a better chance of being a bottom feeder than it does a playoff team, and those teams fall behind a lot in games.  Mixon can catch, but in 2nd half hurry up comeback games, of which there should be several, you're going to see Gio in there, just like Duke Johnson. 

 

Duke Johnson was seeing more than 50% of the snaps in some games. Mixon will see more than 60% in almost all. Crowell was on the worst offense in the league.... He was the easiest bust candidate to point out. Mixon should have just as good of a chance for TD’s as Hunt. 

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5 hours ago, BrianM said:

Those last 40 yards a week and 3-4 TD's he gets overall to put games away make a big difference.

Those last 40 yards aren’t as nice as those last 3 receptions in garbage time. 

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Mixon was also held back in 2017 by the Cincy CS's misguided loyalty to Jeremy Hill.  Now that Hill is gone, Mixon should get 18 to 25 touches per game in 2018.   He will break some big plays and he will end up with very solid numbers.  

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8 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Go watch more tape.

 

He was ok. I wouldn't say he was anything special. 

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2 hours ago, boltup15 said:

Those last 40 yards aren’t as nice as those last 3 receptions in garbage time. 

 

I'm of the belief that Bernard gets those- and i think we've reached the crux of our disagreement.    They won't waste Mixon on those touches.   I also think Hunt's big game potential is vastly superior to Mixon's, and 2017 stats certainly back that up.      

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5 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

There are rb's who are elusive despite what the mediocrity of their o-lines last couple of years shady,  forte in his prime and the greatest of all time Barry Sanders. 

 Mixon syle is a wait , wait, wait, now go style.  Doesnt fit with the cincy oline talent. You need a DJ type who doesnt need his o-line to spring him just a QB who can hit him in stride past the line of scrimmage

 

Are you really expecting any rb to be Barry Sanders?  Tough crowd...

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On 3/5/2018 at 8:54 AM, smeeze said:

Smokin' Joe Mixon had an up-and-down rookie season where he showed flashes of his elite patience and elusiveness but was held back by an ineffective offense and an underwhelming offensive line. Unfortunately, Marvin Lewis was brought back to continue his tenure of mediocrity. I think Mixon will be a 1st round pick in 2019 and is one of the most talented RBs in the NFL today. Change my mind.

 

 

 

 

Needs an offensive line, an offensive line coach, an offensive coordinator, a head coach, and maybe a new GM.

 

Other than that, he's great.

Fantastic defense!

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

I'm of the belief that Bernard gets those- and i think we've reached the crux of our disagreement.    They won't waste Mixon on those touches.   I also think Hunt's big game potential is vastly superior to Mixon's, and 2017 stats certainly back that up.      

 

Bernard with be a crux as much as Ware will be a crux. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Are you really expecting any rb to be Barry Sanders?  Tough crowd...

 nope just an example of a rb who can create without alot of help from his o-line.  Mixon does not have that type of talent, he running style is heavily dependent upon his oline production. Look at his season when he did take over he didnt turn into a dominating runner, a couple of decent games but nothing impressive because the offense was that bad.

Edited by dashoe

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 nope just an example of a rb who can create without alot of help from his o-line.  Mixon does not have that type of talent, he running style is heavily dependent upon his oline production. Look at his season when he did take over he didnt turn into a dominating runner, a couple of decent games but nothing impressive because the offense was that bad.

 

Needs a line a coaches.

Running into a brick wall sucks. Ask Barry Sanders.

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11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 nope just an example of a rb who can create without alot of help from his o-line.  Mixon does not have that type of talent, he running style is heavily dependent upon his oline production. Look at his season when he did take over he didnt turn into a dominating runner, a couple of decent games but nothing impressive because the offense was that bad.

 

Thank you

 

I remember Barry Sanders getting a playoff bye one year then having 30 carries for minus one yard against the Packers in the playoffs. Guess who won?

 

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 nope just an example of a rb who can create without alot of help from his o-line.  Mixon does not have that type of talent, he running style is heavily dependent upon his oline production. Look at his season when he did take over he didnt turn into a dominating runner, a couple of decent games but nothing impressive because the offense was that bad.

 

Again, which current rbs have that level of talent?

 

The closest rb I saw this year that produced with crap was...Drake.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Again, which current rbs have that level of talent?

 

The closest rb I saw this year that produced with crap was...Drake.

 

The rb's who produced more with their talent than their o-lines did for them were howard and shady with olines ranked in the bottom 5 of run blocking. Also shady ususally ourperforms with a mediocre to bad o-line because he is insanely elusive

Edited by dashoe

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Interestingly, CIN’s line was not bottom-5 in run blocking.  It performed better than CHI, BUF and MIA.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Interestingly, CIN’s line was not bottom-5 in run blocking.  It performed better than CHI, BUF and MIA.

 

What metrics are you guys looking at? 

 

I don't agree with the Chicago evaluation.  Their oline was hurt by opposing Ds having no respect for the pass game.  

 

Miami was garbage, no argument there. 

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

The rb's who produced more with their talent than their o-lines did for them were howard and shady with olines ranked in the bottom 5 of run blocking. Also shady ususally ourperforms with a mediocre to bad o-line because he is insanely elusive

 

Nice call on Shady.  Good one. 

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50 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

What metrics are you guys looking at? 

 

I don't agree with the Chicago evaluation.  Their oline was hurt by opposing Ds having no respect for the pass game.  

 

Miami was garbage, no argument there. 

 

In my case, FO’s Adjusted Line Yards for Run Blocking: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?q=stats/ol

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