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Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

You aren’t saying anything we don’t already know.  He runs like Bell-   Now he’s changing his body like Bell.   Draft him as a high floor rb2 and you won’t  be disappointed.    After acquiring Glenn, they are one or two solid linemen from respectability.     Watching that closely to determine the upside. 

 

 

I'll pass. i don't like backfields on bad teams where one rb can easily take touches from the other in any given game. The saints are the exception because payton is disciplined on how he uses kamara and ingram also the saints are a good team.  Actually I may have to move him into the rb3/flex slot because he is right in that grouping of hyde/duke,dion/henry, chris thompson/perine, coleman,collins/dixon.

messy

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

 

I'll pass. i don't like backfields on bad teams where one rb can easily take touches from the other in any given game. The saints are the exception because payton is disciplined on how he uses kamara and ingram also the saints are a good team.  Actually I may have to move him into the rb3/flex slot because he is right in that grouping of hyde/duke,dion/henry, chris thompson/perine, coleman,collins/dixon.

messy

 

Personally don’t see it that way.    Mixon took more and more work as the season went along.  It wasn’t a perfect linear progression but the trend was there.   I can post but I think u know.  This is no more of a timeshare than 90% of nfl backfields.   With Hill gone each back can do what they do best.   Might even see Mixon take that next step and own the entire 3 downs while Gio takes a series here and there.    

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Even with Hill and the s--- O-line last year he was going in the third round.  He's not a secret.  With Hill gone and new O-linemen, you can bet that every average Joe fantasy player is going to read some kind of article about how he's the next breakout, and you're going to have to pay a premium for him.

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Personally don’t see it that way.    Mixon took more and more work as the season went along.  It wasn’t a perfect linear progression but the trend was there.   I can post but I think u know.  This is no more of a timeshare than 90% of nfl backfields.   With Hill gone each back can do what they do best.   Might even see Mixon take that next step and own the entire 3 downs while Gio takes a series here and there.    

I’m coming around to the idea Mixon could have a good year...

 

I still think his ceiling is capped with Gio, but Mixon getting in better shape is encouraging.

 

I’ll take Mixon as a RB2 at the right price, it all depends on the hype train.  He’s currently RB17 (late 3rd PPR) that’s a good value.

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Personally don’t see it that way.    Mixon took more and more work as the season went along.  It wasn’t a perfect linear progression but the trend was there.   I can post but I think u know.  This is no more of a timeshare than 90% of nfl backfields.   With Hill gone each back can do what they do best.   Might even see Mixon take that next step and own the entire 3 downs while Gio takes a series here and there.    

 

 yeah he did take more and more and then he was injured and Gio showed he could when healthy carry the load.  As an OC you can't ignore that talent and ability.

The premise for Mixon was that he was an every down rb that would take over the backfield from both gio and Hill. Now I see a split backfield where the OC can get too clever and it will lead to a frustrating fantasy experience week to week, so it's not about 90% of the league having a timeshare, it's about how will the Bengals allocate their timeshare. 

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6 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Even with Hill and the s--- O-line last year he was going in the third round.  He's not a secret.  With Hill gone and new O-linemen, you can bet that every average Joe fantasy player is going to read some kind of article about how he's the next breakout, and you're going to have to pay a premium for him.

I agree.  We’ll see...

 

I don’t want Mixon in the 2nd round.  

 

Mixon was a huge disappointment last year, people might be gun shy.  Even in the 3rd round there’s other players with upside or reliability, Mixon is a wild card.  I like A. Robinson & D. Thomas, who are around the same price as Mixon.

 

I’ll be playing it by ear.  If my league goes TE & QB heavy in the 3rd Mixon could drop into value territory.

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4 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I agree.  We’ll see...

 

I don’t want Mixon in the 2nd round.  

 

Mixon was a huge disappointment last year, people might be gun shy.  Even in the 3rd round there’s other players with upside or reliability, Mixon is a wild card.  I like A. Robinson & D. Thomas, who are around the same price as Mixon.

 

I’ll be playing it by ear.  If my league goes TE & QB heavy in the 3rd Mixon could drop into value territory.

 

I was banging the table how Mixon was a long shot for a big rookie campaign.  Too many other backs and a coach who makes rookies earn it.   Everyone assumes talent will equal immediate success as an NFL running back- but usually not the case.     This season,  things will be much different.    Now we get to see what he has. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 yeah he did take more and more and then he was injured and Gio showed he could when healthy carry the load.  As an OC you can't ignore that talent and ability.

The premise for Mixon was that he was an every down rb that would take over the backfield from both gio and Hill. Now I see a split backfield where the OC can get too clever and it will lead to a frustrating fantasy experience week to week, so it's not about 90% of the league having a timeshare, it's about how will the Bengals allocate their timeshare. 

The Bengles haven’t been one of the best coached teams, so predicting what they’ll do is problematic.  

 

But, they drafted Mixon to be the “bell cow” if they get their offense right his TD’s could make a dramatic improvement.

 

If they use Gio sparingly to keep him healthy Mixon has upside.

 

There’s a lot of “if’s” and “could” here, but I suppose that’s not to bad for a 3rd round pick.

Edited by seanismorris

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

The Bengles haven’t been one of the best coached teams, so predicting what they’ll do is problematic.  

 

But, they drafted Mixon to be the “bell cow” if they get their offense right his TD’s could make a dramatic improvement.

 

If they use Gio sparingly to keep him healthy Mixon has upside.

 

There’s a lot of “if’s” and “could” here, but I suppose that’s not to bad for a 3rd round pick.

 

 

The other draft problem with Mixon is that grabbing gio is an imperative, which means u need to reach earlier than waiting for him.  He's a young guy and doesnt have an injury history aside from the conscussion last season however if you think he is the bellcow and gio can carry the load it becomes a freeman/coleman, henry/demarco situation where u need to roster the cuff. 

Edited by dashoe

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

 

The other draft problem with Mixon is that grabbing gio is an imperative.  He's a young guy and doesnt have an injury history aside from the conscussion last season however if you think he is the bellcow and gio can carry the load it becomes a freeman/coleman, henry/demarco situation where u need to roster the cuff. 

 

I don't see this as a must cuff situation. But if you do, you can easily get Gio in double digit rounds (not so much with your 2 examples).

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33 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

The Bengles haven’t been one of the best coached teams, so predicting what they’ll do is problematic. 

 

Ha for the typo, ha ha for the understatement.

 

34 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

But, they drafted Mixon to be the “bell cow” if they get their offense right his TD’s could make a dramatic improvement.

 

If they use Gio sparingly to keep him healthy Mixon has upside.

 

There’s a lot of “if’s” and “could” here, but I suppose that’s not to bad for a 3rd round pick.

 

I don't see a lot of "ifs." The Titans, with Henry and Dion Lewis, there's a plethora of ifs. The Seahawks, with too many unknowns and a poor OL, you got your ifs. The Jets, with Crow and Po, if and if. The Bengals ship off their former number one, keep Mixon with Gio as his backup / COP.

 

I'd suggest Mixon would be a great 3rd round pick. Thing is, there is no way he'll be there---at least not mid-to-late---not with the upcoming hype train. Mixon will go late second... and, there's a good chance he'll return some great value there; also could go the other direction if the offense fails to grow out of its dysfunctionality. My two cents.

 

54 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Mixon was a huge disappointment last year, people might be gun shy.

 

Entering the inept Bangles alongside Hill and Gio, anyone who expected Mixon to excel was misguided in their expectations.

 

I wish owners were gunshy this coming draft, but I don't expect that to happen. More likely Mixon will emerge as competitive get, gone just before you plan to nab him.

 

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8 minutes ago, beotos said:

 

I don't see this as a must cuff situation. But if you do, you can easily get Gio in double digit rounds (not so much with your 2 examples).

 

Easily get in double digit rounds?

 i think it is a must cuff situation because Gio is a talented rb  who is a bonafide #2 on the team.  Does anyone roster the rams rb2 or know his name(malcom brown)?

 No because the probability is that guy will do squat if Gurley goes down same as no one bothered rostering DJ's  backups because they sucked. You can't afford to do that with mixon and Gio because it has been proven if Mixon goes down Gio will step in and produce. So if  you draft with savvy guys and u take Mixon in the 3rd, I highly doubt gio will be there in the double digit rounds or if u auction they are going to push u to pay up for gio in ppr.

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Mixon is the perfect post-hype sleeper.  Especially if Cincy's O-line plays better.  Remember how good Lazor was for Lamar Miller in Miami.

 

But I agree that, in competitive leagues, it is going to take some serious resources to land Mixon.  I highly doubt he will still be there in the third round.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

I agree.  We’ll see...

 

I don’t want Mixon in the 2nd round.  

 

Mixon was a huge disappointment last year, people might be gun shy.  Even in the 3rd round there’s other players with upside or reliability, Mixon is a wild card.  I like A. Robinson & D. Thomas, who are around the same price as Mixon.

 

I’ll be playing it by ear.  If my league goes TE & QB heavy in the 3rd Mixon could drop into value territory.

 

 

mixon is on my radar because my strategy is to grab as many low value decent upside rb's as possible this season.  Unlike previous seasons this is a draft where u can get a legitimate rb stud within the first 12 picks. I like to start 3 rbs in my weekly lineups so it's critical to hit on 2 more above average rb's in 13 thru 36. Mixon could be that rb if he falls far enough but the mistake would be to reach for him as if he is a top 12 rb when his situation as it currently exists says he isnt in that tier. 

 The hype factor may push him ahead of mccoy, drake,howard,mckinnon, drake who i currently have ahead of him  because there isnt any talent behind them for a OC to get too clever with.  If the bengals are disciplined the way NO is with ingram/kamara then mixon  could be right there with Ingram but u have to roster gio.

Edited by dashoe

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Easily get in double digit rounds?

 i think it is a must cuff situation because Gio is a talented rb  who is a bonafide #2 on the team.  Does anyone roster the rams rb2 or know his name(malcom brown)?

 No because the probability is that guy will do squat if Gurley goes down same as no one bothered rostering DJ's  backups because they sucked. You can't afford to do that with mixon and Gio because it has been proven if Mixon goes down Gio will step in and produce. So if  you draft with savvy guys and u take Mixon in the 3rd, I highly doubt gio will be there in the double digit rounds or if u auction they are going to push u to pay up for gio in ppr.

 

Perhaps I don't play with as-savvy league mates but,

 

If you miss out on Gio so what? I mean this is Gio we are talking about whose ceiling is RB2, not tevin coleman or henry who are potential RB1 beasts if the guy ahead of them goes down.

Edited by beotos

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

mixon is on my radar because my strategy is to grab as many low value decent upside rb's as possible this season.  Unlike previous seasons this is a draft where u can get a legitimate rb stud within the first 12 picks. I like to start 3 rbs in my weekly lineups so it's critical to hit on 2 more above average rb's in 13 thru 36. Mixon could be that rb if he falls far enough but the mistake would be to reach for him as if he is a top 12 rb when his situation as it currently exists says he isnt in that tier. 

 The hype factor may push him ahead of mccoy, drake,howard,mckinnon, drake who i currently have ahead of him  because there isnt any talent behind them for a OC to get too clever with.  If the bengals are disciplined the way NO is with ingram/kamara then mixon  could be right there with Ingram but u have to roster gio.

Hmmm....

 

i guess you get to the bad guy in this thread lol.  Personally wouldn’t worry much about cuffing Mixon.   But he’s my rb2.   

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23 minutes ago, beotos said:

 

Perhaps I don't play with as-savvy league mates but,

 

If you miss out on Gio so what? I mean this is Gio we are talking about whose ceiling is RB2, not tevin coleman or henry who are potential RB1 beasts if the guy ahead of them goes down.

 

 

 So let's  test your 'so what if u miss out on Gio?' theory

 

wks 13-16  gio was rb#8 (fantasy playoffs for many)

 

wk 13 Gio 68% snaps = 12pts rb#24 Mixon  injured concussion

wk14 Gio 85% snaps = 19pts rb#12 Mixon out

wk 15 Gio  88% snaps = 13pts  rb#17 Mixon out

wk 16 Gio 85% snaps =  30pts  rb#3 Mixon injured

 

Mixon only had a single +20pt game as a starter and gio had a sinlge +20 game with Mixon out so if you think Mixon is a rb1 'beast" enough to be drafted in the 3rd rd it would be rather foolish to wait until the double digits to draft gio as the cuff since the cuff has shown he can replace the starters production; which makes him a high value cuff same as coleman and henry.  I don't get your logic. :huh:

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23 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Hmmm....

 

i guess you get to the bad guy in this thread lol.  Personally wouldn’t worry much about cuffing Mixon.   But he’s my rb2.   

 

 

If i worried about being the bad guy, i would join every hype train in the forums and roster every seattle rb :D

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4 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I still think his ceiling is capped with Gio, but Mixon getting in better shape is encouraging.

 

3 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 This season,  things will be much different.    Now we get to see what he has. 

 

I think the big unknown here is clear. We know Mixon has the talent, and that his rushing abilities are matched by his capable hands (resisting a joke about the extracurricular use of his hands in fast food restaurants). We know that the Bengals offense was hurting last year, including a poor OL, but we expect improvement, albeit slight. We know Gio has talent, too. We don't know how the timeshare will figure into the equation: to what extent will Mixon dominate touches?

 

I'd suggest that Mixon has a strong chance to emerge as the dominant back, possibly 3-down back with only a splash of Gio (e.g. 80% Mixon, 300++ touches). Until then, I'd expect something similar to the Hill / Gio split from 2014 to 2016 (with 2017 being the mess it was).

 

Consider:

 

Gio:

2014 = 168 carries / 680 yards / 5 TDs // 43 rec. / 349 yards / 2 TDs

2015 = 154            / 730           / 2         // 49       / 472          

2016 = 91(10 games)/ 337           / 2         // 39       / 336            / 1

 

Hill:

2014 = 222 carries / 1124 yards / 9 TDs // 27 rec. / 215 yards

2015 = 223            / 794             / 11       // 15        / 79             / 1 TD

2016 = 222            / 839             / 9         // 21       / 174

Is Mixon a candidate for 250 touches? Absolutely. I'd suggest that's his floor for touching the rock. I'd also suggest Mixon could easily see 25-50 of Gio's touches, bringing him up to 300 touches, possibly more if (when?) he earns it.

 

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2 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

 

I think the big unknown here is clear. We know Mixon has the talent, and that his rushing abilities are matched by his capable hands (resisting a joke about the extracurricular use of his hands in fast food restaurants). We know that the Bengals offense was hurting last year, including a poor OL, but we expect improvement, albeit slight. We know Gio has talent, too. We don't know how the timeshare will figure into the equation: to what extent will Mixon dominate touches?

 

I'd suggest that Mixon has a strong chance to emerge as the dominant back, possibly 3-down back with only a splash of Gio (e.g. 80% Mixon, 300++ touches). Until then, I'd expect something similar to the Hill / Gio split from 2014 to 2016 (with 2017 being the mess it was).

 

Consider:

 

Gio:

 

2014 = 168 carries / 680 yards / 5 TDs // 43 rec. / 349 yards / 2 TDs

 

2015 = 154            / 730           / 2         // 49       / 472          

 

2016 = 91(10 games)/ 337           / 2         // 39       / 336            / 1

 

 

 

Hill:

 

2014 = 222 carries / 1124 yards / 9 TDs // 27 rec. / 215 yards

 

2015 = 223            / 794             / 11       // 15        / 79             / 1 TD

 

2016 = 222            / 839             / 9         // 21       / 174

 

 

Is Mixon a candidate for 250 touches? Absolutely. I'd suggest that's his floor for touching the rock. I'd also suggest Mixon could easily see 25-50 of Gio's touches, bringing him up to 300 touches, possibly more if (when?) he earns it.

 

As a previous poster pointed out (illiteration aside)...a slew of Lewis coached backs have had career years.  

 

Once you earn his trust, that is.   I don’t take much from last season other than he’s now fully integrated into the offense. 

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

As a previous poster pointed out (illiteration aside)...a slew of Lewis coached backs have had career years.  

 

Once you earn his trust, that is.   I don’t take much from last season other than he’s now fully integrated into the offense. 

 

I agree that last season was not an indicator of Mixon's NFL usage / ability, and although awesome (alliteration accelerated), he's still not a lock to assume that lion's share if (IF) Gio somehow shines. Gio does have talent, and if he demonstrates this talent early in the season it will majorly frustrate the MIxon owners watching the Bengals backfield become (!!) a 60/40 timeshare. But I'd suggest it more likely that Mixon will shine and own 75% of the backfield by mid-season.

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5 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 I watched his games last season to see what they hype was about. I still don't get it, his running style needs an o-line to create his openings and he needs volume. he is not a rb that can create without a solid 0-line because he goes small and waits and waits and waits for an opening

What i didnt like was seeing how effective gio was running the ball when Mixon was injured. 

I don't know how you manage a Mixon-Gio backfield as an OC without tinkering week to week and being too clever. I don't think Gio is going to be regulated to cop or give mixon a breather role. 

Mixon is a rb2 in my book until the Gio role is established

 

I completely agree. I need to see more, much more. For me he was VERY pedestrian last year.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 So let's  test your 'so what if u miss out on Gio?' theory

 

wks 13-16  gio was rb#8 (fantasy playoffs for many)

 

wk 13 Gio 68% snaps = 12pts rb#24 Mixon  injured concussion

wk14 Gio 85% snaps = 19pts rb#12 Mixon out

wk 15 Gio  88% snaps = 13pts  rb#17 Mixon out

wk 16 Gio 85% snaps =  30pts  rb#3 Mixon injured

 

Mixon only had a single +20pt game as a starter and gio had a sinlge +20 game with Mixon out so if you think Mixon is a rb1 'beast" enough to be drafted in the 3rd rd it would be rather foolish to wait until the double digits to draft gio as the cuff since the cuff has shown he can replace the starters production; which makes him a high value cuff same as coleman and henry.  I don't get your logic. :huh:

 

I know what Gio did in Mixon's absence last year (I picked him up off the wire mind you). My logic is based on what I believe Gio to be, a COP RB, albeit a talented one. I would not bet on Gio to repeat that sort of production if Mixon were to miss time. Gio is not in the same tier (less stand alone value) then Henry / Coleman.

Edited by beotos

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23 minutes ago, beotos said:

 

I know what Gio did in Mixon's absence last year (I picked him up off the wire mind you). My logic is based on what I believe Gio to be, a COP RB, albeit a talented one. I would not bet on Gio to repeat that sort of production if Mixon were to miss time. Gio is not in the same tier (less stand alone value) then Henry / Coleman.

 

i completely understand if you don't place much value on him, that's a matter of opinion. When and if to cuff is a tough decision to make which is my I avoid drafting rb's with strong talented cuffs.  

My point is Gio proved his value as a cuff when Mixon went down so in my snake draft league if Mixon trades in rd 3 his proven cuff is not going to draft in the double digits, especially as the zero rb guys start to go hog wild after rd5

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

i completely understand if you don't place much value on him, that's a matter of opinion. When and if to cuff is a tough decision to make which is my I avoid drafting rb's with strong talented cuffs.  

My point is Gio proved his value as a cuff when Mixon went down so in my snake draft league if Mixon trades in rd 3 his proven cuff is not going to draft in the double digits, especially as the zero rb guys start to go hog wild after rd5

I’ve flirted with cuffs on and off over the years, but generally avoid them unless there is an injury concern.  I don’t consider Mixon as a high risk, so even though Gio is a high end fill-in, I’ll avoid him.

 

I think a lot of it depends on the structure of your league...  I’d rather stash rookie RB’s with upside.  The upside being better than the current starter. For instance... Derrius Guice

 

Gio is almost guaranteed to go undrafted.  He’s also unlikely to overtake Mixon as the starter without an injury.

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