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garlando

Jon Gray 2018 Outlook

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He’s my contrarian play on draft kings today. I mean if you can’t just pitch around Harp against this lineup then something’s wrong

 

 
1. Trea Turner (R) SS
2. Wilmer Difo (S) 2B
3. Bryce Harper (L) RF
4. Matt Adams (L) 1B
5. Matt Wieters (S) C
6. Michael A. Taylor (R) CF
7. Brian Goodwin (L) LF
8. Matt Reynolds (R) 3B
9. Max Scherzer (R) P
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The win may be tough against scherzer but in sketchy matchups like this I often see offenses go dormant when their ace is on the mound.  I’ll toss him out there, hesitantly 

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I'm expecting him to get lit up like a Christmas tree today. 

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2 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Are we tossing him out against the Nats?  If so how many homers does Harper hit against him?

Missed that one, just a double.  Gray’s arsenal doesn’t stand a chance against Harper.  Sorry kid throwing straight as an arrow 96-97 mph 4 seamers get eaten up in this league.   Develop your changeup.  

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5 minutes ago, Nickdoggmoneycash said:

Another awful start against a bad lineup. Anyone dropping?

 

Def considering it to stream for tomorrow, he really imploded quick in the sixth. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Nickdoggmoneycash said:

Another awful start against a bad lineup. Anyone dropping?

It’s not awful (yet).  But I see zero upside with Gray.  His arsenal sucks and is completely predictable.  As teams bat around it gets uglier for a righty who won’t throw a changeup and has a straight as an arrow 4 seam.  Pitching half his games at Coors doesn’t help.  If you can live with a 3.75-4.20 era and mediocre whip upside with good Ks he’s probably ripe for your team.  If not then pawn him off.  

Edited by Cmilne23

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Just now, chud12 said:

 

Def considering it to stream for tomorrow, he really imploded quick in the sixth. 

Considering this is probably the worst lineup he'll face all year (outside of Harper), and that he's not even pitching at Coors right now, I kind of want to drop just to not deal with the headache anymore

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4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

It’s not awful (yet).  But I see zero upside with Gray.  His arsenal sucks and is completely predictable.  As teams bat around it gets uglier for a righty who won’t throw a changeup and has a straight as an arrow 4 seam.  Pitching half his games at Coors doesn’t help.  If you can live with a 3.75-4.20 era and mediocre whip upside with good Ks he’s probably ripe for your team.  If not then pawn him off.  

He doesn't need a changeup. He has a great slider and a good curveball, he doesn't use it enough. The pain problem with Gray is his fastball lacks movement, and without pinpoint command it gets hit around. He does usually have good command though so im still holding, benched today anyway.

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And now it’s awful.  Shelled by Moises Sierra lol.  The guys who’ve slaughtered him lately are comical.  Asujye, Clayton Richard, Moises Sierra.  

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3 hours ago, Michael Bluth said:

He’s my contrarian play on draft kings today. 

 

And it aaaaalmost worked. 

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and it doesn't get any easier going forward with his scheduled starts.  obviously could change with rainouts/PPD, but it doesnt look pretty:

 

4/20 coors field vs cubs

4/25 coors field vs padres (who just lit him up last week)

5/1 @ wrigley cubs 

5/8 coors field vs angels

5/13 coors field vs brewers

5/18 @SF

5/23 @ LAD

 

so basically one game (5/18 @SF) where I might feel comfortable staring him.  in leagues with short benches, he's very droppable right now.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, swingbatter said:

and it doesn't get any easier going forward with his scheduled starts.  obviously could change with rainouts/PPD, but it doesnt look pretty:

 

4/20 coors field vs cubs

4/25 coors field vs padres (who just lit him up last week)

5/1 @ wrigley cubs 

5/8 coors field vs angels

5/13 coors field vs brewers

5/18 @SF

5/23 @ LAD

 

so basically one game (5/18 @SF) where I might feel comfortable staring him.  in leagues with short benches, he's very droppable right now.

 

 

Cubs could be a nice K game.  If Happ’s in lineup he essentially starts with 3.  Padres I’m not concerned about despite the shallacking.  One of Angels or Brewers will probably light him up like a piñata.

Edited by Cmilne23
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So how bad will it be tonight?  Gray has never faced the Cubs or even anyone who IS a Cub (which I found kind of amazing actually).

 

How bad do your ratios have to be already to risk this one?

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31 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

So how bad will it be tonight?  Gray has never faced the Cubs or even anyone who IS a Cub (which I found kind of amazing actually).

 

How bad do your ratios have to be already to risk this one?

Expecting a ruthless beating.  Anything less than 5 ER and a 2 whip I’ll be content with.  Have very low expectations for this guy after watching him so far.  Tough environment and his pitch sequencing/slider command to lefties has been damn near league worst bad (Matt Harvey esque).  But I’m holding for awhile to see more.  Not making any knee jerk reactions.

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Posted (edited)

To expand a little more lefties already have 7! XBH hits off him.  3 Homers (1 by Clayton Richard), 3 doubles and a triple.  He has no change up as the pitch never developed so he’s going to have to have ELITE slider command to get the likes of Harper, Rizzo, Bellinger, etc out with regularity.  But not even the big guys are teeing off so far.  His off speed stuff is so damn bad everyone is teeing off from left hand side.  I typically don’t like right handers with what I call the 3 X’s, spotty command, no change up and a straight as an arrow 4 seamer.  It’s a little easier for righties to get by with no change if they have variations of the fastball IE 2 seam.  But a few disturbing trends early are his GB rate is down 10%.  You don’t want that when you’re pitching in Coors.  He’s elevating everything up in zone.  I expect him to get better as season goes on but I’d be highly surprised if this guy was ever a consistent sub 4 era arm.  Just don’t see any major breakout potential here.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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8 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Expecting a ruthless beating.  Anything less than 5 ER and a 2 whip I’ll be content with.  Have very low expectations for this guy after watching him so far.  Tough environment and his pitch sequencing/slider command to lefties has been damn near league worst bad (Matt Harvey esque).  But I’m holding for awhile to see more.  Not making any knee jerk reactions.

 

Cut him in my year long league and sticking with him in my dynasty for a long while. I never get to watch Gray so I’ll base my analysis off your comments.  Im

not thriller lol. 

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Fangraphs had a good piece on him earlier this week.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/three-struggling-pitchers-archer-gray-duffy/

 

Hitters might be teeing off on him because they're picking up the slight differences in his release for his fastball and breaking ball. Hopefully the pitching coaches have taken a look at that and corrected it but I'm not gonna start him today to find out. 

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This was just a disgusting start.  This guy has just awful stuff.  1 K, just rockets all over yard for outs.  I’m close to making him someone else’s problem.  I already broke his s*** arsenal earlier.  Nobody invested a ton in him so he wouldn’t be the worst cut.  

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9 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Expecting a ruthless beating.  Anything less than 5 ER and a 2 whip I’ll be content with.  

 

Basically you got his start to the exact numbers, good job 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Basically you got his start to the exact numbers, good job 

I know s*** when I see it.  Full disclosure I cut him.  I expect him to even out some, but I got no desire to see it through pitching at Coors.  His stuff sucks, I don’t have any enjoyment watching him pitch behind to everyone and pipe meat.  I’ll let someone else take the 4 era and 1.35 whip upside.

Edited by Cmilne23

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Posted (edited)

I cut him too...if you can't pitch @ Coors, there's no hope...

Edited by jstep13

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I refused to own this guy after I had him two seasons ago. Flashes his potential and then completely craps the bed on you and he’s been doing a lot of bed crapping this season. Then you add in Coors as a home park...no thanks. 

 

God speed to anyone who owns this human hand grenade. 

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Drafting Rockies pitchers besides maybe a closer is almost always going to be a losing proposition for a lot of reasons beyond the difficulties pitching in Coors.

 

 

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