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Jon Gray 2018 Outlook

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I dropped him in my 14 team rotisserie league for Jacob Faria. Gray was.a Round 17 pick #230 

 

11 minutes ago, B&F said:

Drafting Rockies pitchers besides maybe a closer is almost always going to be a losing proposition for a lot of reasons beyond the difficulties pitching in Coors.

 

 

Actually Gray pitched better at home the last two years. 

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12 minutes ago, B&F said:

Drafting Rockies pitchers besides maybe a closer is almost always going to be a losing proposition for a lot of reasons beyond the difficulties pitching in Coors.

 

 

 

Has absolutely nothing to do with Coors - he has all the talent in the World to be a top flight starter.  As a major leaguer, he's still unable to have any control - that's the issue here.  

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22 hours ago, lbjames6 said:

Fangraphs had a good piece on him earlier this week.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/three-struggling-pitchers-archer-gray-duffy/

 

Hitters might be teeing off on him because they're picking up the slight differences in his release for his fastball and breaking ball. Hopefully the pitching coaches have taken a look at that and corrected it but I'm not gonna start him today to find out. 

I would snag this guy off the wire and stash for 3-5 weeks. It is so easy to have this puking reaction when he gets lit. Like getting him off your roster before the game ends will somehow magically take those stats away with it. Gray has nasty stuff. But, like everyone in the MLB except for Mariano Rivera, if a hitter knows what is coming they are going to light you up. His arm angle is a MASSIVE tell. He may as well use his glove to tell everyone what is coming like he would in a bullpen. He has demonstrated an ability to pitch in Coors. He has the stuff to pitch in Coors. He has talent. He just can't overcome tipping his pitches. The window the ball is released from is massively different. This will get fixed. He will throw down a gem. The window will close. Get him now for cheap. 

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27 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I would snag this guy off the wire and stash for 3-5 weeks. It is so easy to have this puking reaction when he gets lit. Like getting him off your roster before the game ends will somehow magically take those stats away with it. Gray has nasty stuff. But, like everyone in the MLB except for Mariano Rivera, if a hitter knows what is coming they are going to light you up. His arm angle is a MASSIVE tell. He may as well use his glove to tell everyone what is coming like he would in a bullpen. He has demonstrated an ability to pitch in Coors. He has the stuff to pitch in Coors. He has talent. He just can't overcome tipping his pitches. The window the ball is released from is massively different. This will get fixed. He will throw down a gem. The window will close. Get him now for cheap. 

I don’t agree with thar opinion. Jon Gray is not one of those players you need to keep when they are going bad. Find a hidden waiver wire gem. Just because you drafted said player you need to know when to give up and find a different player on the waiver wire. With that attitude do you ever drop anybody from your team? 

 

 He already threw his gem & four clunkers 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I don’t agree with thar opinion. Jon Gray is not one of those players you need to keep when they are going bad. Find a hidden waiver wire gem. Just because you drafted said player you need to know when to give up and find a different player on the waiver wire. With that attitude do you ever drop anybody from your team? 

 

 He already threw his gem & four clunkers 

I agree completely.  There’s virtually no upside with Jonathan Gray.  A right hand pitcher who pitches half his games in hitters paradise and has zero changeup is basically limited to what his career numbers are.  3.75-4.50 era, 1.30+ whip with solid strikeouts.  His slider and curve have both been 2 of worst in baseball to date.  He has zero margin for these pitches ever being off otherwise this season happens.  His fastball is straight as arrow, he doesn’t have a changeup so he needs both his slider and curve to be generating whiffs otherwise he’ll be pounded.  I’d rather gamble on other arms as well than chase the “hopeful high 3, low 4 era and 1.30+ whip”, doesn’t seem very exciting.

Edited by Cmilne23

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10 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I don’t agree with thar opinion. Jon Gray is not one of those players you need to keep when they are going bad. Find a hidden waiver wire gem. Just because you drafted said player you need to know when to give up and find a different player on the waiver wire. With that attitude do you ever drop anybody from your team? 

 

 He already threw his gem & four clunkers 

 

5 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I agree completely.  There’s virtually no upside with Jonathan Gray.  A right hand pitcher who pitches half his games in hitters paradise and has zero changeup is basically limited to what his career numbers are.  3.75-4.50 era, 1.30+ whip with solid strikeouts.  His slider and curve have both been 2 of worst in baseball to date.  He has zero margin for these pitches ever being off otherwise this season happens.  His fastball is straight as arrow, he doesn’t have a changeup so he needs both his slider and curve to be generating whiffs otherwise he’ll be pounded.  I’d rather gamble on other arms as well than chase the “hopeful high 3, low 4 era and 1.30+ whip”, doesn’t seem very exciting.

You guys do realize he is tipping his pitches, right? And not just a little bit or once in a while. I mean he is literally telling every single hitter what pitch comes from what window. It is blatant. You give me any pitcher in baseball right now and you tip their pitches and they will get lit. 

 

With your opinions of Gray having no upside basically means he is DND material. Even though he has better numbers at Coors. Even though he is young and still developing. Context is all I am pushing here. 

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Just now, thezing1 said:

 

You guys do realize he is tipping his pitches, right? And not just a little bit or once in a while. I mean he is literally telling every single hitter what pitch comes from what window. It is blatant. You give me any pitcher in baseball right now and you tip their pitches and they will get lit. 

 

With your opinions of Gray having no upside basically means he is DND material. Even though he has better numbers at Coors. Even though he is young and still developing. Context is all I am pushing here. 

Respect your analysis on the pitch tipping. Could explain why he’s been so atrocious with runners on base.  I have a vendetta against arms like who refuse to develop a changeup.  He could really take that next level step if he could ever harness that pitch.  But instead he completely ditched ever developing it and just tries to use the hammer as his put away.  

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Posted (edited)

You guys throwing Gray out there tomorrow against SD? He gave up 10 hits and 7 ER the last time he faced SD at Coors.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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11 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

You guys throwing Gray out there tomorrow against SD? He gave up 10 hits and 7 ER the last time he faced SD at Coors.

 

If we arent going to throw him against San Diego, hes not really worth rostering. Hes been having some rough BABIP luck thus far and the FIP, xFIP support him being a viable option. Thats not everything of course but I think hes gonna even out here at some point and San Diego seems as good a spot as any, Ill be rolling him out. But Ive rolled him out in every start, so maybe Im just stupid.

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9 minutes ago, dzemens said:

 

If we arent going to throw him against San Diego, hes not really worth rostering. Hes been having some rough BABIP luck thus far and the FIP, xFIP support him being a viable option. Thats not everything of course but I think hes gonna even out here at some point and San Diego seems as good a spot as any, Ill be rolling him out. But Ive rolled him out in every start, so maybe Im just stupid.

I'm waiting until he stops tipping pitches with his arm slot. It isn't about the competition. It is 100% about tipping pitches. The Padres will light him up if he tips them off. AAA teams will light him up if he tips pitches. 

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On 4/21/2018 at 12:51 PM, Cmilne23 said:

Respect your analysis on the pitch tipping. Could explain why he’s been so atrocious with runners on base.  I have a vendetta against arms like who refuse to develop a changeup.  He could really take that next level step if he could ever harness that pitch.  But instead he completely ditched ever developing it and just tries to use the hammer as his put away.  

I understand the frustration with not adding a change up. On paper we try to create this perfect arsenal and the change up is ideal for power pitchers like Gray. But, not everyone can throw one. And even when they find a grip that works the change up seems like the one pitch that constantly evolves with new grips, etc. And you always hear about guys being taught grips from other pitchers that specialize in them. I don't think anyone on the Rockies has a crazy good change up. I wouldn't expect one until next season, if it ever happens. At this point I would rather see him get after it with a splitter. 

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I could be totally in denial but at the moment I think he's still worth a stash if your roster can afford it. I don't have the confidence to actually start him tomorrow (4/25) but I think he can still be a viable SP3 or 4 this year.

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I'm starting him.

He actually pitched better at home last year. Not sure if it has something to do with him not using his off-speed as much at home.

Most interested to watch for that arm slot pitch tipping.

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18 hours ago, I was wrong on Kris Benson said:

I could be totally in denial but at the moment I think he's still worth a stash if your roster can afford it. I don't have the confidence to actually start him tomorrow (4/25) but I think he can still be a viable SP3 or 4 this year.

You were wrong on Kris Benson, and I think you'll be wrong on Gray. 

Certainly not a 3-4 in fantasy, definately a back ender due to his environment. And that's even if he pitches well which he isn't right now.

I cut him in a deep rosters 12 teamer and no ones touched him. Do the same people, if he starts looking good again you can pick him up as no one trusts Rockies starters anyway. 

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Ok he’s Looking Good. But it’s the Padres and his next start is on the road and against the cubbies. Is this guy going to stay locked in? Never owned him myself so don’t know his history

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11 hours ago, swfcdan said:

You were wrong on Kris Benson, and I think you'll be wrong on Gray. 

Certainly not a 3-4 in fantasy, definately a back ender due to his environment. And that's even if he pitches well which he isn't right now.

I cut him in a deep rosters 12 teamer and no ones touched him. Do the same people, if he starts looking good again you can pick him up as no one trusts Rockies starters anyway. 

Boom! He's going to end the year with a K/9 rate and a 1.35 WHIP. I ended up throwing caution to the wind and started him. Sometimes you get lucky with decisions and the sun shines on you. He's going to have some clunkers along the way but if you play him all of his starts, the stats should work out in the end.

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12 hours ago, evillaw4eva said:

Sell. Sell. Sell

 

This is rotoworld in a nutshell. After the last bad game, he's drop city. After this one good game you're supposed to sell high? Pathetic.

 

For what it's worth, I picked him up for free after the prior owner dropped him last week. I'm holding onto him because his advanced metrics signal a strong turnaround was imminent. I'll profit off the guys who drop someone (or shout "sell!") after a good/bad outing or two. The ADD on these forms is ridiculous.

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6 hours ago, Roto4500 said:

 

This is rotoworld in a nutshell. After the last bad game, he's drop city. After this one good game you're supposed to sell high? Pathetic.

 

For what it's worth, I picked him up for free after the prior owner dropped him last week. I'm holding onto him because his advanced metrics signal a strong turnaround was imminent. I'll profit off the guys who drop someone (or shout "sell!") after a good/bad outing or two. The ADD on these forms is ridiculous.

Couldn't agree more. It is like people can not connect the dots that 5 hours earlier "drop city" didn't want him on a roster and then magically he is a sell high candidate. I used to think the forums were ridiculous, but the "drop city" and "sell high" posts are actually quite useful. You know where the masses are and where the knee jerk reactions are. You know the patience level for a player. They tell you a lot, you just have to leverage them and take it a step further to make them useful and insightful. 

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Just now, jeffr913 said:

What does everybody think about his start at Wrigley tomorrow?

I'm starting him, but not with a ton of confidence. 

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, jeffr913 said:

What does everybody think about his start at Wrigley tomorrow?

Current forecast is for a strong SW wind, and a SW wind blows straight out at Wrigley. I'd sit anybody other than a bona fide ace in that situation.

Edited by dele
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44 minutes ago, jeffr913 said:

What does everybody think about his start at Wrigley tomorrow?

tenor.gif?itemid=5971326

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