handyandy86

Matt Carpenter 2018 Outlook

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Legit chance to hit 40+ HRs and end the year with a 1.000 OPS, and 110 Runs/85+ RBI

 

After being a laughingstock for 4-6 weeks

 

 

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I tried to trade him at least 3 times. No one took me up. I thank all those owners for the playoff push I'm making that would otherwise be impossible. I can't say that I've seen anything like it.

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6 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

jeez thats like 30 homers in what 3 weeks?

 

this is fairly implausible.  Went from one of worst hitter in baseball to one of the best within a couple of months.

 

Is there a precedent for this type of performance?  Seems pretty rare!

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1 hour ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Realistically, how many hitters do you take over him ROS? I can only count a handful of guys 

 

Plenty, actually -- and I was held him everywhere I owned him, so it's not like I don't believe.  But what we've seen in the last month is way above the baseline of what we should expect ROS.  I think he'll be a back-end top 5 option at every position he qualifies for, not the #5-ish overall player in fantasy he's been over the past 30 days.  Still a guy I want to own everywhere and would require a significant premium above his draft price to sell on, but there are many more than "a handful" of players I'd prefer.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Plenty, actually -- and I was held him everywhere I owned him, so it's not like I don't believe.  But what we've seen in the last month is way above the baseline of what we should expect ROS.  I think he'll be a back-end top 5 option at every position he qualifies for, not the #5-ish overall player in fantasy he's been over the past 30 days.  Still a guy I want to own everywhere and would require a significant premium above his draft price to sell on, but there are many more than "a handful" of players I'd prefer.

 

Carpenter had a terrible opening month and hes been on fire ever since. He has a godly 188 WRC+ if we remove his april stats. And even with his poor start, he has the 4th best WRC+ in the MLB behind only trout, mookie and JoRam. Add in the fact that he plays two premium positions and offers versatility, I think hes a top 10 bat for sure.

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12 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

He has a godly 188 WRC+ if we remove his april stats.

 

Yeah, but we don't do that when we try to predict rest-of-season performance.  The April stats happened, just as the May thorough present day stats happened.  He is what he is on the season, and his career baseline needs to be weighed a lot more than a scorching hot three months.

 

His HR/FB since April is 25.7 against an 11.5 career mark and a 15.8% in his best full season so far.  Why should we believe he's suddenly unlocked more than a 100% improvement in his career baseline in that metric?  I'm not saying it's not possible, and I obviously want it to be a real leap forward skills-wise as an owner, but I'm betting this nuclear streak is more of a modest skills improvement combined with a fair amount of batted ball luck that could vanish.  Maybe it won't, but top 10 bat seems like a whole lot of recency bias without any explanation for why he's suddenly made that leap.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Yeah, but we don't do that when we try to predict rest-of-season performance.  The April stats happened, just as the May thorough present day stats happened.  He is what he is on the season, and his career baseline needs to be weighed a lot more than a scorching hot three months.

 

His HR/FB since April is 25.7 against an 11.5 career mark and a 15.8% in his best full season so far.  Why should we believe he's suddenly unlocked more than a 100% improvement in his career baseline in that metric?  I'm not saying it's not possible, and I obviously want it to be a real leap forward skills-wise as an owner, but I'm betting this nuclear streak is more of a modest skills improvement combined with a fair amount of batted ball luck that could vanish.  Maybe it won't, but top 10 bat seems like a whole lot of recency bias without any explanation for why he's suddenly made that leap.

 

 

Even with his poor April, He's still statistically the 4th best bat in the MLB this season. His HR/FB ratio is above his career norm, but it is not abnormally high, its still just above average. And all the underlying indicators are great, lower GB%, more Line Drives, Hard Hit rate is way up. Carpenter is legitimately an elite Bat

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5 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

His HR/FB ratio is above his career norm, but it is not abnormally high, its still just above average

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/home-run-to-fly-ball-rate

 

"The league average HR/FB rate is usually slightly below 10 percent."

 

25.7% is more than 1.5 times greater than 10%.

 

5 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Carpenter is legitimately an elite Bat

 

I think his numbers at the end of the season including this monster streak will put him in borderline elite status, sure.  But you asked about ROS, and I'm just not seeing any factual basis for why we should believe this is his new baseline.

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7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/home-run-to-fly-ball-rate

 

"The league average HR/FB rate is usually slightly below 10 percent."

 

25.7% is more than 1.5 times greater than 10%.

 

 

I think his numbers at the end of the season including this monster streak will put him in borderline elite status, sure.  But you asked about ROS, and I'm just not seeing any factual basis for why we should believe this is his new baseline.

 

I believe the league HR/FB rate is around 13.5% for the last two years with the "juiced" ball. Carpenter is at 22% for the season, which is above average as you mentioned BUT Carpenter also has a much better batted ball profile than the average hitter. His Hard hit rate, his low GB rate, high LD rate... Thats why im buying in.

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I dunno, you guys think he has a chance to hit 30 Hrs this season?

 

(Inside joke as there was a debate about it on another thread).

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14 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

BUT Carpenter also has a much better batted ball profile than the average hitter. His Hard hit rate, his low GB rate, high LD rate...

 

Sure,  but he's basically been that guy for three or four years now and has never had an HR/FBB near this -- even during the juiced ball era.  I don't think we're that far apart here, and I sincerely hope I'm wrong and you're right, but I just can't call him a top 10 bat right now when the outcomes are so different with a very similar profile.

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I think I’d take it the under on 30 next year...

But I’m going to very much enjoy the 42 this year

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Past 3 years or so Shandler has been saying he's a 35+ HR guy.  Guess he finally hit on that one.  Power's legit and he's on a heater so enjoy the ride.  

 

 

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[Removed Bench Coach content] I'm super thrilled with this production even if he doesn't keep up this GODLY tear. But long term, maybe he could be a 30 HR guy? And why is he hitting leadoff, doesn't be fit better in the 3 Hole at this point?

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Bench Coach content -- "is he a keeper" is way too format-dependent to ask here

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42 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Past 3 years or so Shandler has been saying he's a 35+ HR guy.  Guess he finally hit on that one.  Power's legit and he's on a heater so enjoy the ride.  

 

 

this is one long heater....

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9 minutes ago, screaming_vultures said:

you guys debating 40, i think he may end up with 50 at this rate. 

 

Yes please!

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