fletch44

Carlos Gonzalez 2018 Outlook

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Has signed a 1 year deal "in priciniple" with COL. Anyone biting late ?

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hell yeah he hit well in second half

 

a late round pick for a guy who had a top rated 50 ADP last year at Coors?

 

why the hell not?

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He didnt hit well, he hit for a nice avg in the second half, nothing more.  8 HR and 35 RBI out of 207 AB's is not worth of a spot on a fantasy roster. 

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6 hours ago, fletch44 said:

Anyone biting late ?

 

Seems like a no brainer.

 

CarGo's going to be punished for his 1st half.

 

But at the end of the day he still had a solid 2nd half, still plays half his games in Coors, and is still only 32.

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too outfielders, he was brutal against lefties all year, he will platoon at best, they still have Parra, Dahl and Tapia, which of them goes to the monors?, Does Desmond then go to 1st?What happens to McMahon? Some many questions.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jdbob11 said:

He didnt hit well, he hit for a nice avg in the second half, nothing more.  8 HR and 35 RBI out of 207 AB's is not worth of a spot on a fantasy roster. 

 

Not exactly. He had a 1.250 OPS in September with six homers in 93 PAs. Something may have clicked that could carry over to this season. The first half could be the aberration, based on his career norms. Sure, it could be a sign of a steep decline ahead but he's still 32, not 35, so I'm willing to bet on him for this year if it's an affordable price tag. I don't mind the struggles vs. lefties because he'll should sit vs. most lefties because they have other options. He'll be a great 4th outfielder/utility spot. 

Edited by ryno1980
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I think he’s an incredible value this year. Everyone’s going to remember the disappointment but I feel like I remembered he had health issues. He was a monster in september.

 

I'm buying in as an off year and could see 25-30 with the inflated average that only Coors can bring.

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Posted (edited)

September stats are close to having as much weight as spring training stats.  He was banged up last season... which seems to happen a lot with him.  He’s probably not going to run anymore.  He’s probably not playing full time.  If he’s healthy, you may get 20-25 homers with a .270 average.  The days of him doing much more are likely gone.  

Edited by kidtwentytwo
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Yeah, he has injury issues, but 25 homers with an .830ish OPS in 500 PAs is valuable on a per-game basis.  

September stats in the middle of a wild-card race mean way more than spring stats. 

The six September homers: 

on the road vs. Darvish, David Hernandez, Taijuan Walker, 

at home vs.: Clayton Kershaw, Jordan Lyles. 

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

  He was banged up last season... which seems to happen a lot with him.  He’s probably not going to run anymore.  He’s probably not playing full time.  If he’s healthy, you may get 20-25 homers with a .270 average.  The days of him doing much more are likely gone.  

 

Injuries to me don't mean anything when it's not a high round pick. Carlos Gonzalez is currently going at pick 299 in NFBC leagues, maybe that comes down to 250, maybe 220. Whatever.  If you're passing on healthy players because of injury risk after pick 200, that seems silly.

 

He hasnt run since 2013, so that's not much of an issue per recent expectations.

 

He's clearly on the wrong side of 30 and his career is winding down, but I think there will be a decent bounceback this year and I'm loving the price. I would love Colorado Carlos Gonzalez as my OF6-7 which is where he is going for 12 teams. OF 5 for 15 teamers.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Agreed. Bargain basement price and if he sits vs lefties even better cause it's and auto bench. Always love gambling on hurt players and the price here, it's not really even a bargain more than it is a pure flyer tag if he's at 299.  

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Seriously nobody is talking about Gerrado Parra just completely losing his starting job after hitting .310?

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

Seriously nobody is talking about Gerrado Parra just completely losing his starting job after hitting .310?

 

For what it's worth Roster Resource says Parra is still starting as is Cargo, and McMahon. Ian Desmond is the bench bat who would get a lot of AB at 1 and OF. I'm sure it's a fluid situation. I do think Dahl forces his way up eventually to spill whoever is hurt or sucks.

 

Secondly, a sub 100 WRC+ for Parra in a year where he batted .310 seems to suggest home park played a huge influence in this.  330 at home vs 270 on the road. A near 370 BABIP at home too.

 

Parra isn't garbage, but let's not pretend he's a very good hitter just because he hit .310 as a Rockie.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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20 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Injuries to me don't mean anything when it's not a high round pick. Carlos Gonzalez is currently going at pick 299 in NFBC leagues, maybe that comes down to 250, maybe 220. Whatever.  If you're passing on healthy players because of injury risk after pick 200, that seems silly.

 

He hasnt run since 2013, so that's not much of an issue per recent expectations.

 

He's clearly on the wrong side of 30 and his career is winding down, but I think there will be a decent bounceback this year and I'm loving the price. I would love Colorado Carlos Gonzalez as my OF6-7 which is where he is going for 12 teams. OF 5 for 15 teamers.

 

Im on pick 293 in my draft and he’s still there.  So far the fact he signed doesn’t mean much to the rest of the league.  He probably should be taken at this point to be honest, but if his upside is 20hr, a lot of players do that. Past few rounds pitching and anyone with a shred of SB ability have been taken.    

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3 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Im on pick 293 in my draft and he’s still there.  So far the fact he signed doesn’t mean much to the rest of the league.  He probably should be taken at this point to be honest, but if his upside is 20hr, a lot of players do that. Past few rounds pitching and anyone with a shred of SB ability have been taken.    

 

Roster Resource has him batting 3rd in the Rockies lineup.  The #3 Hitter for the Rockies at pick 290 seems like a no brainer to me.

 

I wouldn't project 30 home runs, but I think that's his upside still.. not 20.  Like I stated before, I don't really care about injury risk at almost any point in the draft besides the first 6-8 rounds at most. 

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20 home runs is probably the baseline, with 30 as the upside. 

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44 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

20 home runs is probably the baseline, with 30 as the upside. 

 

Well that or less than 14 like he hit last year in 156 games at age 31

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I grabbed Him and Dickerson at 285 and 292 in my draft today.  I see value in both at that point of the draft.

 

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2 minutes ago, umphrey said:

 

Well that or less than 14 like he hit last year in 156 games at age 31

 

Hard to hit home runs when you aren't  sleeping 

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So he's in the best shape of his life?  All I needed to hear, I'm sold!

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11 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

For what it's worth Roster Resource says Parra is still starting as is Cargo, and McMahon. Ian Desmond is the bench bat who would get a lot of AB at 1 and OF. I'm sure it's a fluid situation. I do think Dahl forces his way up eventually to spill whoever is hurt or sucks.

 

Secondly, a sub 100 WRC+ for Parra in a year where he batted .310 seems to suggest home park played a huge influence in this.  330 at home vs 270 on the road. A near 370 BABIP at home too.

 

Parra isn't garbage, but let's not pretend he's a very good hitter just because he hit .310 as a Rockie.

Ya, that might matter if Parra were playing somewhere else, but he's playing right in Colorado again hehe. But this outfield situation is insane now. I just don't understand this signing at all. Parra was fantastic last year for them, and Dahl is already smashing the ball in Spring Training. They should have used that money on more pitching. Geesh

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1 hour ago, MrPositive said:

Ya, that might matter if Parra were playing somewhere else, but he's playing right in Colorado again hehe. But this outfield situation is insane now. I just don't understand this signing at all. Parra was fantastic last year for them, and Dahl is already smashing the ball in Spring Training. They should have used that money on more pitching. Geesh

Resigning CarGo just doesn't make any sense for the roster that is in place at this time in Colorado.

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10 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Resigning CarGo just doesn't make any sense for the roster that is in place at this time in Colorado.

 

It makes fine sense, especially for the price.  They are trying to win real baseball games, not make sure all their players have maximum fantasy value.

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Not sure if this is representative, but in my 11-team NL-Only league a lot of the vets went for dirt cheap. CarGo for $2, Adrian Gonzalez for $1, Maybin for $1, Matt Kemp for $1, etc. and that's just my team.  We do have daily transactions, so everyone's point is well taken - simply bench him when he's not in the starting lineup (or vs LHP).

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41 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Resigning CarGo just doesn't make any sense for the roster that is in place at this time in Colorado.

 

1 year 8 million isn't that much of an investment. And if he proves to be serviceable or better, I think they'll move him at the deadline and get something back (unless they're in the hunt).

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