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Kenta Maeda 2018 Outlook

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5 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

Terrible start, no way to sugercoat it.  Such a dumb decision to start him.

Yep, it truly was a terrible start.  Even though the Brewers are obviously very dangerous now, I still didn't see this coming the way he had been rolling (even with giving up 4 runs to the Phillies).

 

I don't think it was a dumb decision to start him though, and that's not just because I did too.  Any of the so called experts had him as a definite start.  ESPN had him with a score of 60 in their Daily Notes (which is pretty high and would be #1 in today's rankings), Rotoworld had him at the top of the second tier in their DFS article, Pitcher List had him as a Start... So basically everyone started him.

Edited by KilloWertz

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2 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

Yep, it truly was a terrible start.  Even though the Brewers are obviously very dangerous now, I still didn't see this coming the way he had been rolling (even with giving up 4 runs to the Phillies).

 

I don't think it was a dumb decision to start him though, and that's not just because I did too.  Any of the so called experts had him as a definite start.  ESPN had him with a score of 60 in their Daily Notes (which is pretty high and would be #1 in today's rankings), Rotoworld had him at the top of the second tier in their DFS article, Pitcher List had him as a Start... So basically everyone started him.

 

I think the reason I'm so mad at myself for it was because I posted an hour before the game how much this matchup scared me and I almost benched Maeda, but I decided idiotically at the last minute to start him.   The Brewers lineup is scary good with Moustakas now, and 1 through 6 might be the best in baseball honestly.  Maeda certainly isn't at the level of someone like Sale or Scherzer who it simply doesn't matter who they are facing.  Maeda looks great when he faces teams like the Marlins (15 IP, 1 ER against them this year), but really is not good enough to start against the better offenses in baseball and I should have known that.

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It was a disappointing start (last two actually) but Nick Pollock says hes a pitch mix adjustment from being elite (abandon the curve and throw more sliders). He has two of the best pitches by the numbers in his Slider and Change-up to go with an above average fastball as well. His numbers overall are pretty darn impressive for the year too (3.09 FIP) Buy low if you can!

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2 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

It was a disappointing start (last two actually) but Nick Pollock says hes a pitch mix adjustment from being elite (abandon the curve and throw more sliders). He has two of the best pitches by the numbers in his Slider and Change-up to go with an above average fastball as well. His numbers overall are pretty darn impressive for the year too (3.09 FIP) Buy low if you can!

My concern is the guy can't get through the order the third time to save his life. Same can be said for plenty of pitchers, but he seems to be the king of it, especially lately.

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11 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

My concern is the guy can't get through the order the third time to save his life. Same can be said for plenty of pitchers, but he seems to be the king of it, especially lately.

 

That was certainly the problem two starts ago against Philly.  Roberts should have never brought him out for the 7th inning or at minimum should have pulled him right away after the first two batters of the 7th reached.

 

Last night against the Brewers though, Maeda sucked from the first batter to the last.  The bottom line is Maeda was great his first month in the major leagues in April 2016 when no one had seen him before and has been a very mediocre fantasy pitcher ever since.  He's worth starting against weak teams like the Marlins definitely, but starting him against a good offense like the Brewers was one of the dumbest fantasy decisions I've ever made.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

The bottom line is Maeda was great his first month in the major leagues in April 2016 when no one had seen him before and has been a very mediocre fantasy pitcher ever since.  e.

Hmmm. 

2018: 3.48ERA, 1.24WHIP, 119k in 98ip with 5QS. 

Let's go by what you said about him being mediocre since the end of April 2016. 

Stats since May 6 2016 to today:

376ip with 410k, 33-22 record, 9.81 k/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.92ERA

Lots to love there. I'd hardly say he's been mediocre when his draft price wasn't high, and he's had a solid season. 

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2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

 

Let's go by what you said about him being mediocre since the end of April 2016. 

Stats since May 6 2016 to today:

376ip with 410k, 33-22 record, 9.81 k/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.92ERA

Lots to love there. I'd hardly say he's been mediocre when his draft price wasn't high, and he's had a solid season. 

The strikeouts are good, but a 3.92 ERA is really mediocre.  Unless you have a really bad pitching staff, a 3.92 ERA is almost certainly providing a negative on your team ERA.

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3 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

The strikeouts are good, but a 3.92 ERA is really mediocre.  Unless you have a really bad pitching staff, a 3.92 ERA is almost certainly providing a negative on your team ERA.

OK, but his ERA this year is 3.48 which is quite good.

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36 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

The strikeouts are good, but a 3.92 ERA is really mediocre.  Unless you have a really bad pitching staff, a 3.92 ERA is almost certainly providing a negative on your team ERA.

 

3.48 ERA and 3.09 FIP.

 

If that is mediocre to you then you have some very lofty standards. That Kluber guy... mediocre, Greinke... mediocre :P

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7 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

3.48 ERA and 3.09 FIP.

 

If that is mediocre to you then you have some very lofty standards. That Kluber guy... mediocre, Greinke... mediocre :P

 

7 hours ago, RBI Sports said:

Hey, stop trying to contradict his opinion with facts! ?

 

A 3.48 ERA has provided a slight negative effect on my overall team's ERA.  Maeda's 1.24 WHIP has provided a larger negative effect on my team's WHIP.  7 wins through 4 months of the season is also disappointing.  The only category where he has really helped this year is strikeouts.

 

Maeda is worth owning and starting vs. the bottom half offenses in baseball, but he's hardly a stud pitcher (current rank 179).

Edited by FootballFan101

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On 7/15, he had a 3.12 era. He's allowed 4 runs in his last two starts. Maybe its a downward trend. Maybe its just because it was the Phillies and the Brewers. You're right, he's not a stud......but he's certainly a top 50 pitcher in my book...no matter what his current rank is. He has less than 100 innings so far. He's missed a little time. 

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Just now, weisberg26 said:

Who is starting him tomorrow versus Houston?

 

9k, 2 ER, 1.1 Whip, W. 

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On 8/1/2018 at 9:22 PM, FootballFan101 said:

 

 

A 3.48 ERA has provided a slight negative effect on my overall team's ERA.  Maeda's 1.24 WHIP has provided a larger negative effect on my team's WHIP.  7 wins through 4 months of the season is also disappointing.  The only category where he has really helped this year is strikeouts.

 

Maeda is worth owning and starting vs. the bottom half offenses in baseball, but he's hardly a stud pitcher (current rank 179).

This is hilarious. Are you in a 6 teamer? A 3.48 ERA is negative? You realize he also missed games right?

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5 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

This is hilarious. Are you in a 6 teamer? A 3.48 ERA is negative? You realize he also missed games right?

 

12 team roto money league.  My team's ERA is 3.22 so Maeda has definitely provided a slight negative effect there for my team.  In fact, 8 of the 12 teams in the league have an ERA of 3.48 or lower, and 10 of the 12 teams in the league have a WHIP of 1.24 or lower.  And Maeda only missed 2 weeks of the season.

 

Like I said before, Maeda is worth owning, but he's certainly not a stud.  Maeda was great his first month in the major leagues in April 2016 when no one had seen him before and has been a very mediocre fantasy pitcher in the two and a half years since then.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

12 team roto money league.  My team's ERA is 3.22 so Maeda has definitely provided a slight negative effect there for my team.  In fact, 8 of the 12 teams in the league have an ERA of 3.48 or lower, and 10 of the 12 teams in the league have a WHIP of 1.24 or lower.  And Maeda only missed 2 weeks of the season.

 

Like I said before, Maeda is worth owning, but he's certainly not a stud.  Maeda was great his first month in the major leagues in April 2016 when no one had seen him before and has been a very mediocre fantasy pitcher in the two and a half years since then.

His value increases dramatically with a k/9 or similar addition to a 5x5. Some of his adp derives from this

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2 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

Like I said before, Maeda is worth owning, but he's certainly not a stud.  Maeda was great his first month in the major leagues in April 2016 when no one had seen him before and has been a very mediocre fantasy pitcher in the two and a half years since then.

 

Over his past 11 starts he's (5-3) with a 2.76 ERA, 1.08 WHP, 72k's in 62 ip, a .198 BAA, and an elite 15% swinging strike rate. These are his most recent starts, you know when the league should have the most data on him. So, no, they have not figured him out. He's a pretty darn good pitcher. Just because he's not top 20 doesn't mean he's bad. Still a worthy sp3/4. 

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2 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

In fact, 8 of the 12 teams in the league have an ERA of 3.48 or lower, and 10 of the 12 teams in the league have a WHIP of 1.24 or lower.  And Maeda only missed 2 weeks of the season.

 

Like I said before, Maeda is worth owning, but he's certainly not a stud.  Maeda was great his first month in the major leagues in April 2016 when no one had seen him before and has been a very mediocre fantasy pitcher in the two and a half years since then.

Prove the starter ERA and WHIP please. I find it hard to believe that 8 teams are rocking ERAs that low when it comes to starters only, especially in a 12 teamer. 

No one said he was a stud, but call him mediocre is ridiculous. The average ERA this year is 4.16, meaning he's over half a run below the average with an above average K rate. 

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Prove the starter ERA and WHIP please. I find it hard to believe that 8 teams are rocking ERAs that low when it comes to starters only, especially in a 12 teamer. 

No one said he was a stud, but call him mediocre is ridiculous. The average ERA this year is 4.16, meaning he's over half a run below the average with an above average K rate. 

ERA and WHIP in roto leagues (at least most roto leagues) are cumulative between starters and relievers.  The average MLB ERA is so much higher than the average fantasy team ERA because bums (like Matt Moore and Lucas Giolito) aren't owned in fantasy.

 

I'm not sure why everyone is taking such offense to me saying Maeda is mediocre in fantasy and that he should not be started against good offenses like the Brewers.  If ranking fantasy pitchers, Maeda would be somewhere between 40 and 50.  To me, that's worth owning but is mediocre.

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Yeah, much like everything, it's relative to your respective league format/size. For me, all I do is points--and points that really reward K's. He's quite valuable there and the underlying metrics suggest nothing is UNsustainable about what he's up to. Just hope he does not get squeezed outta the rotation.

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4 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

ERA and WHIP in roto leagues (at least most roto leagues) are cumulative between starters and relievers.  The average MLB ERA is so much higher than the average fantasy team ERA because bums (like Matt Moore and Lucas Giolito) aren't owned in fantasy.

 

I'm not sure why everyone is taking such offense to me saying Maeda is mediocre in fantasy and that he should not be started against good offenses like the Brewers.  If ranking fantasy pitchers, Maeda would be somewhere between 40 and 50.  To me, that's worth owning but is mediocre.

I don't care if it's cumulative between RP and SP. If you're going to compare your team's ERA to a starter then you need to look at your team's SP ERA. 

People are making a point of this because he isn't mediocre. You're literally just incorrect. He's easily a top 30 pitcher in most leagues, unless we're going to debate leagues with different settings. Mediocre is incorrect. 

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7 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

He's easily a top 30 pitcher in most leagues

 

ESPN player rater has him at 46, my Yahoo 5x5 league has him at 37.  I wouldn't call either of those "mediocre" rankings in the leagues I play in, and would be happy to have him on any of my teams.  But I don't think he's "easily" a top 30 guy when his inning workload is managed so carefully.

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7 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I don't care if it's cumulative between RP and SP. If you're going to compare your team's ERA to a starter then you need to look at your team's SP ERA. 

People are making a point of this because he isn't mediocre. You're literally just incorrect. He's easily a top 30 pitcher in most leagues, unless we're going to debate leagues with different settings. Mediocre is incorrect. 

 

I'm hardly alone in considering Maeda in the 40-50 range among starting pitchers.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/rankings/ros-sp.php

 

You really overrate your own players if you think Maeda is "easily a top 30 pitcher in most leagues"

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