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Kenta Maeda 2018 Outlook

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Pitcherlist has him at #28 currently.  This said, I don't think discussion of whether he should be 5 or 10 or 15 spots higher or lower is that relevant to most people.  The real question is: how is he going to pitch out the season?  Personally I'm betting he does quite well.

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4 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Pitcherlist has him at #28 currently.  This said, I don't think discussion of whether he should be 5 or 10 or 15 spots higher or lower is that relevant to most people.  The real question is: how is he going to pitch out the season?  Personally I'm betting he does quite well.

i'm betting he usually goes 5 then they give it to the bullpen

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[BlueJays @ FootballFan, nobody wants to read two pages of you guys arguing about a league-specific thing.  Take it to PM or bring the discussion back to Maeda's fantasy outlook.]

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Schedule plays out HOU, @COL, SF, STL, @TEX, assuming it’s a 5 man rotation. If they go to a 6 man when Stripling returns, then it’s HOU, @COL, @SEA, SD, and possibly the final game against ARI. If their spot in the playoffs is locked up, I doubt he makes that final start. Need a good start tonight to give him a shot at a good finish to the year. The six man rotation schedule could yield an ugly 4 game end to the seaso . 

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I completely forgot about September ha. So the rest of his season, 5 or 6 man rotation, would be 

 

ARI, @COL, @STL, COL, @ARI, 

 

so not not a huge difference either way, but HOU and 2@COL, of his last 9/10 starts is not ideal. Hopefully something happens and he dodges one of the Coors starts. I feel much better about him now that I remembered the season doesn’t end August 31st. 

 

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He's great when facing teams like the Marlins.  When he faces above average lineups, he gets exposed.  I was an idiot for starting him against the Brewers on Monday, but I'm glad I benched him tonight at least.  Benching him at Coors next week too.

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I switched over to the UFC fights after he finished the 5th, assuming Roberts had the sense to do the same. Can someone explain to me why I check back to see that their manager, paid to make smart baseball decisions, left him in for the 6th? End result..... rubbing in the WS victory. I hope the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs and he gets fired. Ridiculous 

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9 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

He's great when facing teams like the Marlins.  When he faces above average lineups, he gets exposed.  I was an idiot for starting him against the Brewers on Monday, but I'm glad I benched him tonight at least.  Benching him at Coors next week too.

Is he though? There is a lot of variance here. I'm seeing him do quite well against some above average lineups at one point, getting shelled by them at another. Same with below average teams.

CHC: 0.00, 7.36
MIL: 7.71
COL: 1.59, 0.00
TEX: 3.60
PHI: 5.14, 10.80
ARI: 6.75

Then throw in the "poor teams" and he has either done great or meh. Then again, lots of guys get shelled against the Rockies or Cubs.

I get your point. He isn't an ace, and I don't think anyone said he is. He's at best a #2SP, but likely a solid #3 for most teams.
 

Date Team Opp GS W L SV HLD IP TBF H R ER HR BB SO K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP GSv2
Total - - - - - - 19 7 7 0 0 103.2 439 93 47 43 10 37 123 10.68 3.21 0.87 .312 72.3 % 39.5 % 10.4 % 3.73 3.20 3.47 53
Date Team Opp GS W L SV HLD IP TBF H R ER HR BB SO K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP GSv2
2018-08-04 LAD HOU 1 0 1 0 0 5.1 24 6 5 5 1 2 4 6.75 3.38 1.69 .294 45.5 % 50.0 % 12.5 % 8.44 5.23 5.26 38
2018-07-30 LAD MIL 1 0 1 0 0 4.2 24 7 4 4 1 3 4 7.71 5.79 1.93 .375 69.8 % 29.4 % 25.0 % 7.71 6.16 4.79 33
2018-07-24 LAD @PHI 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 27 6 4 4 2 0 7 9.00 0.00 2.57 .222 62.5 % 40.0 % 22.2 % 5.14 4.88 3.28 52
2018-07-15 LAD LAA 0 1 0 0 0 0.1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 27.00 0.00 0.00 .000 100.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.00 6.16 6.16  
2018-07-11 LAD @SDP 1 1 0 0 0 5.2 21 4 1 1 0 1 9 14.29 1.59 0.00 .364 80.0 % 45.5 % 0.0 % 1.59 0.52 1.39 69
2018-07-06 LAD @LAA 1 0 0 0 0 5.2 22 3 1 1 0 2 9 14.29 3.18 0.00 .273 80.0 % 54.5 % 0.0 % 1.59 1.05 2.21 69
2018-06-30 LAD COL 1 0 1 0 0 7.0 28 5 3 2 1 2 9 11.57 2.57 1.29 .250 71.4 % 43.8 % 14.3 % 2.57 3.31 3.10 61
2018-06-25 LAD CHC 1 1 0 0 0 7.0 24 3 0 0 0 1 9 11.57 1.29 0.00 .214 100.0 % 46.2 % 0.0 % 0.00 1.02 1.73 82
2018-06-19 LAD @CHC 1 0 0 0 0 3.2 21 5 3 3 0 5 2 4.91 12.27 0.00 .357 70.0 % 28.6 % 0.0 % 7.36 6.16 7.96 34
2018-06-13 LAD TEX 1 0 0 0 0 5.0 23 5 2 2 0 3 1 1.80 5.40 0.00 .278 77.8 % 35.3 % 0.0 % 3.60 5.16 7.47 48
2018-05-29 LAD PHI 1 0 1 0 0 1.2 9 3 2 2 1 1 2 10.80 5.40 5.40 .400 76.9 % 0.0 % 25.0 % 10.80 10.36 6.51 31
2018-05-23 LAD COL 1 1 0 0 0 6.2 25 2 0 0 0 4 12 16.20 5.40 0.00 .222 100.0 % 44.4 % 0.0 % 0.00 1.36 2.10 79
2018-05-17 LAD @MIA 1 1 0 0 0 8.0 26 2 0 0 0 0 8 9.00 0.00 0.00 .111 100.0 % 33.3 % 0.0 % 0.00 1.16 2.60 91
2018-05-11 LAD CIN 1 0 1 0 0 4.2 25 9 5 5 1 2 5 9.64 3.86 1.93 .471 62.5 % 23.5 % 14.3 % 9.64 5.09 4.78 29
2018-05-05 LAD @SDP 1 0 0 0 0 5.0 20 4 3 3 1 1 7 12.60 1.80 1.80 .273 55.6 % 50.0 % 33.3 % 5.40 3.56 1.95 51
2018-04-29 LAD @SFG 1 0 1 0 0 6.0 26 5 4 4 1 4 3 4.50 6.00 1.50 .222 65.8 % 38.9 % 14.3 % 6.00 6.33 6.08 42
2018-04-24 LAD MIA 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 23 4 1 1 1 1 7 10.50 1.50 1.50 .214 100.0 % 40.0 % 14.3 % 1.50 3.50 3.25 63
2018-04-18 LAD @SDP 1 1 0 0 0 5.2 28 8 4 4 0 2 10 15.88 3.18 0.00 .533 63.6 % 46.7 % 0.0 % 6.35 1.22 2.68 51
2018-04-13 LAD ARI 1 0 1 0 0 2.2 15 5 5 2 0 2 2 6.75 6.75 0.00 .455 28.6 % 45.5 % 0.0 % 6.75 3.91 4.53 28
2018-04-07 LAD @SFG 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 5 2 0 0 0 0 2 18.00 0.00 0.00 .667 100.0 % 33.3 % 0.0 % 0.00 -0.84 0.81  
2018-03-31 LAD SFG 1 1 0 0 0 5.0 21 5 0 0 0 1 10 18.00 1.80 0.00 .500 100.0 % 50.0 % 0.0 % 0.00 -0.24 0.42 67

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4 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Then throw in the "poor teams" and he has either done great or meh. Then again, lots of guys get shelled against the Rockies or Cubs.

I get your point. He isn't an ace, and I don't think anyone said he is. He's at best a #2SP, but likely a solid #3 for most teams.
 

 

This. I don't think he can be relied upon to be an SP2. If you have him as your SP3 in a 12-team league, your rotation is probably pretty solid.

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7 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

I switched over to the UFC fights after he finished the 5th, assuming Roberts had the sense to do the same. Can someone explain to me why I check back to see that their manager, paid to make smart baseball decisions, left him in for the 6th? End result..... rubbing in the WS victory. I hope the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs and he gets fired. Ridiculous 

 

Agree, Roberts left Maeda in way too long last night.  At worst he should have been out of there after 2 baserunners.  Roberts left Maeda in way too long against the Phillies a couple weeks ago too.

18 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

I completely forgot about September ha. So the rest of his season, 5 or 6 man rotation, would be 

 

ARI, @COL, @STL, COL, @ARI, 

 

so not not a huge difference either way, but HOU and 2@COL, of his last 9/10 starts is not ideal. Hopefully something happens and he dodges one of the Coors starts. I feel much better about him now that I remembered the season doesn’t end August 31st. 

 

 

Well, he might dodge the second Coors start because there's a decent chance he might be in the bullpen by September.  I know Wood was just placed on the DL and Ryu will need a few more rehab starts, but they both will probably be back by the end of August.  Once those two return the Dodgers will have 7 starters.  Maeda was the odd man out last year and sent to the bullpen when everyone was healthy.  Maeda has really struggled since the All-Star break and has to start pitching much better immediately if he doesn't want to be the odd man last year.

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

This. I don't think he can be relied upon to be an SP2. If you have him as your SP3 in a 12-team league, your rotation is probably pretty solid.

In my 10 teamer he's been reliable as a SP2 only because we do Holds/Saves so my relievers are wicked for ratios. Standards he's def sp3 with SP2 upside. First time through the order his ratios are unreal. 2nd their so so and 3rd can be tough. Gotta keep in mind he's only been in the MLB a couple seasons. 

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One bad inning won't sour me on a guy with such fantastic peripherals. He was rolling along until the 6th. Missed with a 1-2 (to I forget who) with 1st and 2nd, one out. Ball was pulled on the ground about 6 inches past Turner's glove for a 2 run double. Later in the inning (again, forget which batter lol) hit a ball to center that Chris Taylor probably should've caught, but dropped before a diving Taylor before it rolled behind him. Wasn't that far from a 6 inning, 1 run gem. That's baseball though. 

 

So, all in all, a bad start and then a bad inning won't stop me from liking this guy. I've still got him as a top 40 starter ROS with top 30 upside. My only question is what the Dodgers due with their rotation when Ryu, Wood are back. 

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On 8/5/2018 at 8:35 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

This. I don't think he can be relied upon to be an SP2. If you have him as your SP3 in a 12-team league, your rotation is probably pretty solid.

 

Unless my top two pitchers were Scherzer and Sale, I sure as heck wouldn't want to be relying on him as my #3 SP.  I drafted him as my #4 SP in my money league and even for that, he's been disappointing (currently ranked outside the top 50 starters).  And there's probably a pretty good chance he gets banished to the bullpen once Ryu and Wood return, like what happened last year.

Edited by FootballFan101

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16 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

anyone dropping with the bullpen change coming?

 

Definitely not in a league that counts Holds and Saves.  Jenley's stint on the DL helps Maeda retain value as a reliever in Hold/Save leagues.  

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1 minute ago, 80version said:

 

Definitely not in a league that counts Holds and Saves.  Jenley's stint on the DL helps Maeda retain value as a reliever in Hold/Save leagues.  

 

true, I guess it's a league specific thing, my apologies.

 

I was thinking more for starting pitcher outlook going forward.

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It’s Colorado. It’s suicide to start him there, he’s not elite. If you did, that’s on you. 

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I was half-expecting him to come out dealing since we're all obviously benching (at least I hope you are). 

 

Yeah, not the case so far.  

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3 minutes ago, jstep13 said:

It’s Colorado. It’s suicide to start him there, he’s not elite. If you did, that’s on you. 

 

Even the elite guys, I almost always avoid starting at Coors.  Here's the career numbers at Coors of some of the best NL pitchers over the past decade (and Coors was even worse before the humidor)

 

Kershaw: 4.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 116 Ks in 120 IP

Scherzer: 5.88 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 29 Ks in 27 IP

Bumgarner: 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 58 Ks in 79 IP

Greinke: 4.20 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 56 Ks in 64 IP

Strasburg: 7.20 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 21 Ks in 20 IP

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Kershaw

Hill

Buehler

Wood

Stripling

Ryu

Maeda

 

Urias coming back as well(bullpen most likely), but what are the odds of the above, collectively staying healthy? While Maeda drove me crazy the last few weeks, he’s had previous success and no one ahead of him is a stranger to the DL. I bet he makes another five or so starts. 

 

If you add Urias to the list above, is there a team with more SP’s that have hit the DL in the last 2-3 years? 

 

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On 8/5/2018 at 1:08 AM, mavsfan23 said:

I switched over to the UFC fights after he finished the 5th, assuming Roberts had the sense to do the same. Can someone explain to me why I check back to see that their manager, paid to make smart baseball decisions, left him in for the 6th? End result..... rubbing in the WS victory. I hope the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs and he gets fired. Ridiculous 

 

Roberts is such a bad manager.  Top of the 6th inning, Dodgers have a runner at 3rd one out with Maeda's spot due up, a prime opportunity to pinch hit, get an insurance run with Maeda having already thrown 90 pitches and having well-documented struggles the 3rd time through the order.  Instead Roberts lets Maeda bat, he pops out, and the Dodgers don't score a run and now sends an exhausted Maeda out to start the 6th and likely blow up in the 6th.  When will Roberts ever learn?

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