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steve9347

Marco Gonzales 2018 Outlook

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3 hours ago, 3Sheets1elbow said:

Was leaving his sinker in the zone a lot early.   Was leaning on it heavy. Led to a HR by Brandon Guyer of all people.  It did make his changeup really effective the third time through the order though.

 

Considering Guyer is known as a lefty masher, I’m not sure why this is a surprise

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13 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

I am holding. Strikes out a lot of guys Andria limits his walks. His FIP & XFIP are over 2 runs less then his ERA. 

 

*and limits

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Holding in all formats I can get him in. Don't forget the Mariners bats have been hot as of late, as a team they're sitting roughly around 10th in the league in terms of runs, hits and average. His ERA is bound to drop and he'll always have above average run support. Sure he's not a flamethrower, but his pitch mix forces batters to earn their hits. I wouldn't call him a fantasy ace but he's an asset. 

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On 4/29/2018 at 7:00 PM, jbormann said:

 

Considering Guyer is known as a lefty masher, I’m not sure why this is a surprise

 

 

Probably because in his 7 years of playing he's mashing home runs once every 42 AB.  

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5 hours ago, 3Sheets1elbow said:

 

 

Probably because in his 7 years of playing he's mashing home runs once every 42 AB.  

Again

 

597 ABs vs lefties - 21 HRs

541 ABs vs righties - 6 HRs

 

There is no location known to man where 597 divided by 21 equals 42

Edited by jbormann
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Through 5 tonight and pitching stellar again, that's 3 starts in a row with good results. I like this guy. 

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21 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Through 5 tonight and pitching stellar again, that's 3 starts in a row with good results. I like this guy. 

 

 

Too soon.

 

Still 7K and a BB in 6 

 

Gave up too much solid contact and the one walk was costly.  I can only think of 3 times where he hung pitches in bad spots.  Twice to Pujols and once on the HR by Marte.

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Nice outing last night.  His stuff reminds me of MadBum.  Cutter, curve, solid fastball.

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There are probably worse streamers on rosters than MG.

Edited by B&F

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

There are probably worse streamers on rosters than MG.

 

I wouldnt consider Marco a streamer at all. No offense but If he is out on waivers then the league is busch. Dude is pitching like a top 25-30 SP.

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47 minutes ago, arthurpete said:

 

I wouldnt consider Marco a streamer at all. No offense but If he is out on waivers then the league is busch. Dude is pitching like a top 25-30 SP.

I'm in a hugely competitive 12tm league and amazingly he was in mine. Some people just aren't believers yet clearly as he doesn't throw 95. I actually meant to stream him but forgot and saw he's still available now. So added him now because there's no way he's going to last on the wire till his next start against Tampa.

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55 minutes ago, arthurpete said:

 

I wouldnt consider Marco a streamer at all. No offense but If he is out on waivers then the league is busch. Dude is pitching like a top 25-30 SP.

Let’s not do this. Both the “your league sucks” and the false information to make a point.

In 5 x 5 on ESPN he’s the 54th ranked SP. So he’s a 5th starter in 12-team leagues. Should be rostered, but he’s definitely not top 25-30 and it’s not a crime if he’s not owned in 10 team leagues.

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His last three starts have been against the Tigers, Athletics, and Rangers.  I wouldn't trust him against an elite offense yet.  

 

Is there anything to indicate he might be for real?

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55 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Let’s not do this. Both the “your league sucks” and the false information to make a point.

In 5 x 5 on ESPN he’s the 54th ranked SP. So he’s a 5th starter in 12-team leagues. Should be rostered, but he’s definitely not top 25-30 and it’s not a crime if he’s not owned in 10 team leagues.

 

You are right, should have left off the Busch league comment but i think the "false information" is debatable. Seriously, he is sitting at #25 in WAR, 35th in K/BB%, 18th in BB%, 38th in ERA,  20th in xFIP, 29th in Sierra and this is all with his lackluster 2/3 starts to begin the year. No he doesnt have tremendous gas but his curveball sits behind only 4 others...Kluber, Stras, Morton and Berrios. He has a plus cutter and very serviceable change and fastball. 

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

His last three starts have been against the Tigers, Athletics, and Rangers.  I wouldn't trust him against an elite offense yet.  

 

Is there anything to indicate he might be for real?

 

Yes, i would like to see how he handles the Redsox, Yanks and the Stros again. He did pitch well @CLE and held his own vs LAA 

 

Check out his curve, its pretty damn solid.

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4 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Let’s not do this. Both the “your league sucks” and the false information to make a point.

In 5 x 5 on ESPN he’s the 54th ranked SP. So he’s a 5th starter in 12-team leagues. Should be rostered, but he’s definitely not top 25-30 and it’s not a crime if he’s not owned in 10 team leagues.

 

4 hours ago, B&F said:

His last three starts have been against the Tigers, Athletics, and Rangers.  I wouldn't trust him against an elite offense yet.  

 

Is there anything to indicate he might be for real?

 

To piggy back on @arthurpete

 

One of these is Marco Gonzales, the other is also a breakout pitcher but is ranked much higher in SP rankings.

 

 

Player A: 2.58 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 3.73xFIP, 3.49 SIERRA .98 WHIP, .267 BABIP, 6.92 K/9, 0.95 BB/9, 81.9% Contact, 80.6% Med/Hard Contact, 9% SwStr

 

Last 7 : 4 W 1.90 ERA .93 WHIP 7.04 K/9

 

Player B: 3.60 ERA , 3.28 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 3.74 SIERRA, 1.33 WHIP, .343 BABIP. 7.95 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 82.3% Contact, 83.9% Med/Hard Contact, 8.1% SwStr

 

Last 7 : 4 W 2.08 ERA 1.22 WHIP 7.03 K/9

 

 

Marco is Player B.  Now depending on how high you value Miles Mikolas, player A, you should consider Marco close behind.  

 

Mikolas is showing ++ control and that’s a pretty decent gap between the two in WHIP and BB/9 to support his ranking, but Marco’s control isn’t anything to sneeze at.

 

 

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I'd be careful here. Gonzales's K/BB rate isn't as shiny lately even though his results are better and there's nothing in his history to indicate he'll strike out people like he did in April. 

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Check out his last 7 games I posted.  That K/9 is more indicative of what you should expect.  That’s including yesterday’s game where I think 4 BB for him is an anomaly and jumped up his BB/9 from sub 2 to 2.25.

 

correction to Mikolas’s xFIP, it’s actually 3.25.

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Well worth using right now, not convinced enough to use him against the toughest lineups yet. Can't really use him as a streamer now in most leagues as someone will add him, so have to hold if you wanna use him.

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This guy might put me in the money.

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16 hours ago, 3Sheets1elbow said:

First earned run given up in his last 25 innings.  

 

 

 

Yup, he's been doing great. 

8 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Well worth using right now, not convinced enough to use him against the toughest lineups yet. Can't really use him as a streamer now in most leagues as someone will add him, so have to hold if you wanna use him.

 

This is one of the main reasons why I liked Marco from the beginning of hte year. He's had some bad starts against bad teams (6 / 4 ER v. Detroit) but as a whole, the pitchers I prefer to HOLD on my roster are the good-pitching, good-control types because those are the types that are typically going to be, shall we say, more correlated in how they do against good teams and bad teams, whereas pitchers who lack control like a Sean Newcomb are typically their own worst enemies. Now Newcomb's a poor example here because his recent improved control and dominant stretch put him far past Gonzales in terms of value and fairly so, but more like where Newcomb was early in the year where him having under 4 BBs was about a 50/50 shot.

 

I expect Gonzales to handle weaker and middle tier line-ups, and I think I can avoid his worst starts by benching against the obvious match-ups like Yankees, BoSox, Stros, etc. Plus, although the West is a powerhouse, the Seattle Line-Up Cano or not is very solid. He's already showcased that as I believe he's sitting at 6 wins in 12 starts, which is pretty damn strong.

On 4/24/2018 at 8:13 PM, taobball said:

Instant add all formats. 24 k 4 bb now on the season. Think something really clicked these last two   Starts. Don't know if it sustains but worth the ticket to ride to find out. Mid-tiered upside though. 3.50 era with 7.50 k/ 9. 

 

Wanted to focus on this sample. I could probably get a better ERA by leaving off the first start of those two (4.2 IP, 3 ER) but that was a very solid pitched game against the Astros where he had 8 Ks and 1 BB.

 

But in that sample, which basically just excludes the first three Starts, Marco has:

2.30 ERA

48 Ks in 52.2 IP (7.90 K/9)

15 BBs to 48 Ks (2.47 BB/9) (3.2 K/BB)

1.20 WHIP

 

That WHIP is honestly a bit surprising, but not when you consider that Marco's hit rate is pretty high. His BABIP is sitting at .339, which is 7th highest among qualified pitchers. I don't love using them, but Marco's 3.38 ERA actually almost splits the difference between his FIP (3.23) and his xFIP (3.47), so there's not a lot of "regression" to be seen here in the typical sense. 

 

The real question with Marco at this point is how well can he continue to suppress homers, particularly now that we're getting into his first Summer. Right now his HR/9 sits at 0.68, which is VERY strong in today's MLB. (14th Best). If he's a good home run suppressor, I think Marco Gonzales can be a solid arm at the back of your rotation. If he's a great home run suppressor, i.e. as good as he has been to date, I think there's a really strong chance that this guy can be exactly this for 30+ starts-- 180-190 innings (don't know if there would be a theoretical cap to change this) of a 3.00-3.30 ERA, and a sub-8.00 K/9, but still about 150+ Ks if he gets the innings, and also looking like 14-16 wins. An SP3. 

 

Edit: It's easy to make a comparison to current hot commodity Mikolas. I think they will have very similar value ROS. Very recently, Gonzales could've been had for pennies. He's still only 30% owned. Mikolas, comparatively, has now eclipsed 90%. 

Edited by taobball
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