Mr2Saint

Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

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Just now, Ruut6 said:

Which is what happened. Penny is not a 4.46 runner. Closer to 4.55. He’s not THAT much faster than Carson.

 

LOL.  Thanks for the laugh.  Off to a strong start.

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56 minutes ago, kdko said:

If Seattle and the CS was as high as Carson as the rest of some of you are, they wouldn't have drafted a RB in the 1st round and would have addressed other needs.

 

When Seattle drafted Penny (actually, reached for Penny), Carson's double-injury recovery was unknown and there was no one left in the backfield. Considering the severity of the injury, there's a good chance they were thinking they needed an RB1 to replace him. Now that they've seen a full recovery by Carson, and solidity, it's Carson's job to lose, this helped by Penny's slips in health and missing time. You think Carson will lose his job quickly, but there's a stronger argument for Carson to retain 1A status to Penny's 1B or possibly even relegate Penny to COP if he doesn't demonstrate those college skills. As we know, college skills don't always translate to the pros, and it may be as simple as that. I like what I've seen of Penny at the college-level, but his preseason / weight gain have him sliding in the wrong direction.

 

1 hour ago, kdko said:

Once Penny gets up to speed he can do things Carson will never be able to do.

 

This is hopeful but unrealistic thinking. Carson has the hands and feet to succeed. The statement rings of someone who has drafted Penny because Seattle reached and dismissed Carson. If you have any more drafts left, you might want to reconsider your hardline stance: Penny is not starting Week 1. Penny must earn his position and his health is trending downwards. Carson has the favor of the coaching staff, his teammates, and the fans. Penny has more weight and finger injury.

 

But more regarding this statement: the statement considers Penny as if he's a #1 RB just because he was drafted in the first round. First round busts happen every year. I don't think Penny's a bust (he is talented---we can both agree here), however I don't think he should've been drafted in the first round. He is not of the same pedigree as the NFL's top backs; he has not faced high-caliber opponents and proved durability with 600+ rushing attempts.

 

Consider: does he have NFL durability? Who can say. As an Aztec, he was behind Donnel Pumphrey and was not utilized extensively until senior year. Penny has 488 rushing attempts in four years. He does not have a history of receptions (42 in four years). "Penny [...] can do things Carson will never be able to do"? Who do you think he is? Compare his 488 touches / 42 receptions to top NFL RBs:

 

Demarco Murray = 759 ru / 157 rec

Barkley = 671 ru / 102 rec

Bell = 671 ru / 78 rec

 

But even more importantly: Penny was not facing elite college talent because he played for SD State. Other than ASU and Stanford, did Penny even face a real opponent? Penny was running circles around

     Cal-Davis

     Air Force

     N. Illinois

     Nevada-LV

     Boise State

     Fresno

     Hawaii

     San Jose

     New Mexico

     Army

 

I would've have loved to have seen Penny play against Clemson, Alabama, UW, LSU, Ohio, FSU ---- and here we might've been able to truly gauge his talent... but we never saw it. He was a high school senior playing against middle school teams. The jury is still out.

 

45 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

Have you forgotten about Penny's weight gain?

 

Pete Carroll likes bulk. It does remain to be seen whether or not Penny can use this bulk or whether it contributes to an injury. Was the weight gain intentional, or was it due to lack of conditioning? This is a key question. The broken finger was nothing to me, though it does propel Carson to the clear #1 for Week 1. But the weight increase without a Carroll comment is disconcerting. Without positive reports on Penny regarding his conditioning, his health, and his work ethic, I wouldn't be surprised to find him on waivers in some leagues after a few weeks. But I also think this would be a mistake: he shouldn't on the wire.

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

LOL.  Thanks for the laugh.  Off to a strong start.

He lost 16 lbs for the Combine and ran a 4.46. Teams aren’t stupid enough to believe that’s his actual speed at his real playing weight. Which likely includes a bunch of fat since he gained it back so quickly.

 

The fantasy football community overrating a rookie running back after watching him run against MWC defenses. What a shocker.

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2 hours ago, kdko said:

 

 

Your response is all over the place.  Carson is sluggish.  He ran close to a 4.6 at the combine, and is slow on the field.  Have you watched him play? 

 

 

This is just a false narrative.  Almost a 4.6, huh?  So you mean a 4.5?  That's pretty solid for a back of his size.  He was in the top 20 overall (among RB's) at the combine for the 40.  Let's see how he compared with two other RB's at that combine in the four events they all participated in:

 

Alvin Kamara: 4.56 40, 39.5" vert, 131" Broad Jump, 15 Reps on Bench

Chris Carson: 4.58 40, 37" vert, 130" Broad Jump, 23 Reps on Bench

Kareem Hunt: 4.62 40, 36.5" vert, 119" Broad Jump, 18 Reps on Bench

 

Kamara and Carson were at/near the top in vertical and broad jump among all RB's.  Carson was also top 3 in bench.

 

Carson's big knocks are injury proneness and limited carries in college.  He doesn't have the top end speed, but he is an excellent one cut runner with good hands and excellent pass pro.  That fits Seattle well.  I certainly wouldn't call him sluggish.  I'm also in the camp that at the time of the draft it was unclear how healthy Carson was going to be, but his recovery has surpassed expectations and he is looking strong (just like last year pre-injury).

 

He should definitely be knocked down relative to other starting RB's due to injury history and Penny getting a chance if Carson slips up at all, but I also think there is a legit possibility that Carson stays strong and doesn't relinquish the job.  Seattle learned from last year that you can never have enough competent RB's.  

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29 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

 

This is just a false narrative.  Almost a 4.6, huh?  So you mean a 4.5?  That's pretty solid for a back of his size.  He was in the top 20 overall (among RB's) at the combine for the 40.  Let's see how he compared with two other RB's at that combine in the four events they all participated in:

 

Alvin Kamara: 4.56 40, 39.5" vert, 131" Broad Jump, 15 Reps on Bench

Chris Carson: 4.58 40, 37" vert, 130" Broad Jump, 23 Reps on Bench

Kareem Hunt: 4.62 40, 36.5" vert, 119" Broad Jump, 18 Reps on Bench

 

Kamara and Carson were at/near the top in vertical and broad jump among all RB's.  Carson was also top 3 in bench.

 

Carson's big knocks are injury proneness and limited carries in college.  He doesn't have the top end speed, but he is an excellent one cut runner with good hands and excellent pass pro.  That fits Seattle well.  I certainly wouldn't call him sluggish.  I'm also in the camp that at the time of the draft it was unclear how healthy Carson was going to be, but his recovery has surpassed expectations and he is looking strong (just like last year pre-injury).

 

He should definitely be knocked down relative to other starting RB's due to injury history and Penny getting a chance if Carson slips up at all, but I also think there is a legit possibility that Carson stays strong and doesn't relinquish the job.  Seattle learned from last year that you can never have enough competent RB's.  

 

But he wasn't a first round draft pick!

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40 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

 

This is just a false narrative.  Almost a 4.6, huh?  So you mean a 4.5?  That's pretty solid for a back of his size.  He was in the top 20 overall (among RB's) at the combine for the 40.  Let's see how he compared with two other RB's at that combine in the four events they all participated in:

 

Alvin Kamara: 4.56 40, 39.5" vert, 131" Broad Jump, 15 Reps on Bench

Chris Carson: 4.58 40, 37" vert, 130" Broad Jump, 23 Reps on Bench

Kareem Hunt: 4.62 40, 36.5" vert, 119" Broad Jump, 18 Reps on Bench

 

Kamara and Carson were at/near the top in vertical and broad jump among all RB's.  Carson was also top 3 in bench.

 

Carson's big knocks are injury proneness and limited carries in college.  He doesn't have the top end speed, but he is an excellent one cut runner with good hands and excellent pass pro.  That fits Seattle well.  I certainly wouldn't call him sluggish.  I'm also in the camp that at the time of the draft it was unclear how healthy Carson was going to be, but his recovery has surpassed expectations and he is looking strong (just like last year pre-injury).

 

He should definitely be knocked down relative to other starting RB's due to injury history and Penny getting a chance if Carson slips up at all, but I also think there is a legit possibility that Carson stays strong and doesn't relinquish the job.  Seattle learned from last year that you can never have enough competent RB's.  

Carson is by no means a burner, and that’s never been his game, but acting like Penny is a significant upgrade over him at this point in time because his 40 was a 4.46 and then gained 18 pounds in a couple weeks is ridiculous. It’s the classic proven vs unproven debate - Carson has shown to be at least serviceable, tough, protects the ball, decent in ppro, and most importantly clearly has the trust of the coaching staff to start. I always want a young RB with trust over an unproven rookie, especially one who lost and gained 18 pounds in 2 months.

 

Penny may be a better running back, I have no idea, but between the knowns and situation Carson should absolutely be drafted ahead of Penny and it’s not close for now.

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Scooped up all the carson shares I could get my hands on in last 3 days. Been taking him in 6th round in yahoo drafts. hoping for a top 15 rb position for the year and I will call it a victory. Think hyde 2017 for a 6th. I doubt we are getting ingram 2017 but one can hope.

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Currently ahead of Penny... Does this hold true most of the season?  Is there a 50/50 share that happens?  I honestly like Penny's upside a lot more but Carson's floor seems to be better.

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7 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

Currently ahead of Penny... Does this hold true most of the season?  Is there a 50/50 share that happens?  I honestly like Penny's upside a lot more but Carson's floor seems to be better.

 

Both really good questions.  I’m betting it will likely be another year of no one in this backfield putting up solid fantasy numbers.  I own a share of Carson because I got him cheap.  But I’m not counting on big numbers from either of them. 

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12 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

Currently ahead of Penny... Does this hold true most of the season?  Is there a 50/50 share that happens?  I honestly like Penny's upside a lot more but Carson's floor seems to be better.

LIterally no one in the world can answer this question, not even Pete Carroll

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5 minutes ago, lla887 said:

 

Both really good questions.  I’m betting it will likely be another year of no one in this backfield putting up solid fantasy numbers.  I own a share of Carson because I got him cheap.  But I’m not counting on big numbers from either of them. 

 

Isn't Penny going way later though?  He's gone late or even undrafted in the few mocks I've done.

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2 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Isn't Penny going way later though?  He's gone late or even undrafted in the few mocks I've done.

 

In my draft I grabbed Carson in the 12th.  Penny went in the same round three picks later.  

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Officially named the starter in Denver. Not an ideal week 1 location, but I think it’s safe to say he’ll be receiving more snaps and work than many of us hoped when drafting him weeks/months ago.

 

Denver is stout, so don’t expect 5 YPC, but 20 touches and a TD or two are possible. Firing him up as a RB2 with confidence. Excited about his outlook. 

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Carson looked awesome last year behind an overwhelmed O line. Hoping the new lineman can put him over the top in to dependably solid RB2 territory.

 

Penny stunk, got hurt and then gained 16 pounds. Not worried. 

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Carson is going to put up solid numbers this year. A couple more healthy games last year and people would be more high on him. He doesn’t have the draft pedigree, but that means absolutely nothing in reality or in fantasy. He can churn out yards behind this pathetic line, which is something I don’t believe Penny will be able to do. Carson has such a nice blend of raw power and elusiveness. Also catches the ball well and seems reliable in pass pro. Sure he doesn’t have the top end speed, but that’s not the end all be all. His running style is exactly what Carrol wants that team to be about. 

 

Or he will suck and lose the job by week 3. That’s fantasy for ya. 

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58 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Carson looked awesome last year behind an overwhelmed O line. Hoping the new lineman can put him over the top in to dependably solid RB2 territory.

 

Penny stunk, got hurt and then gained 16 pounds. Not worried. 

 

i had him last year ... he looked good - he ran hard, got some tough yards, popped a few ... but, plz, he was not quite "awesome" - got stuffed on a couple/few gl carries, iirc ... and the one TD he did score was via the passing game.  

 

he's a very solid tackle foosball player, and he has the potential to be a very servicable rb2 in our lil' hobby - but, yeah, ixnay the "awesome" shtick. 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2

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31 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

i had him last year ... he looked good - he ran hard, got some tough yards, popped a few ... but, plz, he was not quite "awesome" - got stuffed on a couple/few gl carries, iirc ... and the one TD he did score was via the passing game.  

 

he's a very solid tackle foosball player, and he has the potential to be a very servicable rb2 in our lil' hobby - but, yeah, ixnay the "awesome" shtick. 

 

 

It's funny you say that.

 

I am preparing for my $$$ league draft and was doing a mock and was looking at Baldwin and then was thinking about Carson and suddenly I got this feeling ... what if the Seahawks just suck f$%#ing @ss this year. 

 

Tough to find guys I really like in the later rounds this year other than WR. 

 

All this said, yes, Carson may not be a special talent but I will stick by the opinion that his effort is special. 

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Penny is fat so I'm betting we get a great amount of value out of Carson relative to where we drafted him.

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8 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

 

It's funny you say that.

 

I am preparing for my $$$ league draft and was doing a mock and was looking at Baldwin and then was thinking about Carson and suddenly I got this feeling ... what if the Seahawks just suck f$%#ing @ss this year. 

 

Tough to find guys I really like in the later rounds this year other than WR. 

 

All this said, yes, Carson may not be a special talent but I will stick by the opinion that his effort is special. 

 

B)

 

i hear ya, FreakyFry ... i'm targeting him as well, in all three drafts - won't be heartbroken if i miss, but, targeting for sure

 

gl to you this season

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1 minute ago, Born Sinner said:

Holy crap I can’t believe people still think it’s Carson over Penny lmaooo

Why wouldn't everyone think that? That's the reality of the situation. 

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12 minutes ago, Born Sinner said:

Holy crap I can’t believe people still think it’s Carson over Penny lmaooo

 

Solid post. 

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9 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Why wouldn't everyone think that? That's the reality of the situation. 

 Some people just enjoy arguing for the sake of arguing.

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35 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

what if the Seahawks just suck f$%#ing @ss this year.

There is plenty suckage on the receiving corps, including TE. The main question is can their O-line finally be a bit better under the new coach. 

 

I avoid all Seahawks until I have some faith in that line. That backfield is also wayyyy too messy for my liking, my crystal ball is all cloudy here.

 

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