Mr2Saint

Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

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5 hours ago, humanpuck said:

How the hell is he a FA?

 

Speaking as a Carson owner who dropped him after week 2 in my 10 team league. Here was my rationale behind it.

 

Watched the Seattle vs Chicago game and witnessed Penny, Mike Davis, and Prosise all get touches ahead of Carson in a primetime game decided by a touchdown. In fact, Carson was even playing special teams, if that didn't speak volumes to where the coaching staff viewed him, I didn't know what else would. Also thought, would he be the "#1" back on the depth chart? Maybe, but there was clearly no #1 guy or even #1 and #2 guys in that backfield. 

 

Then week 3 rolls around and he gets 32 carries in a close game. Now backed by teammates and seemingly the coaching staff, and looks to be getting his opportunity to make his claim as the workhorse back in the offense, or he already did so. Guess I'll just have to hope I can get him back off waivers this week :unsure:

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15 minutes ago, next big thing cp84 said:

 

Speaking as a Carson owner who dropped him after week 2 in my 10 team league. Here was my rationale behind it.

 

Watched the Seattle vs Chicago game and witnessed Penny, Mike Davis, and Prosise all get touches ahead of Carson in a primetime game decided by a touchdown. In fact, Carson was even playing special teams, if that didn't speak volumes to where the coaching staff viewed him, I didn't know what else would. Also thought, would he be the "#1" back on the depth chart? Maybe, but there was clearly no #1 guy or even #1 and #2 guys in that backfield. 

 

Then week 3 rolls around and he gets 32 carries in a close game. Now backed by teammates and seemingly the coaching staff, and looks to be getting his opportunity to make his claim as the workhorse back in the offense, or he already did so. Guess I'll just have to hope I can get him back off waivers this week :unsure:

Yeah and people on these boards were crapping on him. If you watched Carson you would know he is a player. All his teammates have backed him this year and last and Penny had done nothing to deserve carries. He was an obvious hold for me. Marlon Mack just became available in one of my leagues and I'll be trying to stash him as well.  

Edited by ohio#1eaglesfan

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i dropped as well because of the week 2 script, will try to get him back hard to see me trusting him in line up until he repeats his touch performance of week3

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10 minutes ago, CuBu said:

i dropped as well because of the week 2 script, will try to get him back hard to see me trusting him in line up until he repeats his touch performance of week3

I dropped him as well because I couldn't trust him enough to ever start him.  This seems more a consequence of Petey punishing the rookie for fumbling.  Week 4 will be telling.  I just dont see them abandoning their first round pick.   Carroll and the GM were all gushing about Penney after they drafted him.

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11 minutes ago, RingMyBell said:

I dropped him as well because I couldn't trust him enough to ever start him.  This seems more a consequence of Petey punishing the rookie for fumbling.  Week 4 will be telling.  I just dont see them abandoning their first round pick.   Carroll and the GM were all gushing about Penney after they drafted him.

It was a premature drop. You didn't know how good Carson is. 

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8 minutes ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

It was a premature drop. You didn't know how good Carson is. 

 

I kept Penney over him, it def looks like the wrong move right now.  Time will tell.

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Just looking at his points per 100 snaps numbers and he is on an elite level just below Gurley and Kamara and above Melvin Gordon.  I was debating between Carson and Golladay and Collins and I think I got to give Carrol a chance to burn me.

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I also dropped him after week 2.  It just didn't look like the coaches were going to commit one way or another, or shift offensive philosophies to enable Carson (or Penny).  Fortunately for me, no one grabbed him before the games Sunday and once Shady was ruled OUT I put him in my IR slot and grabbed Carson before the games began just in case something like this happened.

 

I dont think it'll be too easy next week @Arizona, they are "fantasy friendly" against the run largely due to TDs given up (5).  Arizona has been pretty solid against the run when it comes to yards and yards per carry, particularly against the lead power back types.  See Jordan Howard last week: 24 carries, 61 yards, 2.5 yards per carry.  Or Gurley the week before: 19 carries, 42 yards, 2.2 yards per carry.  Then there's AP in week 1: 26 carries, 96 yards, 3.7 yards per carry.  It's the shifty passing backs that tend to burn them on the ground.  Luckily the Cardinals have been awful this year which allows the game script to go in favor of opposing running backs.  If Carson can manage a Jordan Howard type of day I'll be pretty happy.

Edited by Bryce84

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7 minutes ago, Bryce84 said:

I also dropped him after week 2.  It just didn't look like the coaches were going to commit one way or another, or shift offensive philosophies to enable Carson (or Penny).  Fortunately for me, no one grabbed him before the games Sunday and once Shady was ruled OUT I put him in my IR slot and grabbed Carson before the games began just in case something like this happened.

 

I dont think it'll be too easy next week @Arizona, they are "fantasy friendly" against the run largely due to TDs given up (5).  Arizona has been pretty solid against the run when it comes to yards and yards per carry, particularly against the lead power back types.  See Jordan Howard last week: 24 carries, 61 yards, 2.5 yards per carry.  Or Gurley the week before: 19 carries, 42 yards, 2.2 yards per carry.  Then there's AP in week 1: 26 carries, 96 yards, 3.7 yards per carry.  It's the shifty passing backs that tend to burn them on the ground.  Luckily the Cardinals have been awful this year which allows the game script to go in favor of opposing running backs.  If Carson can manage a Jordan Howard type of day I'll be pretty happy.

 

 

basically whoever is the starting RB in SEA is a volume start for the season.  it isn't a huge upside play. with bye weeks starting, Carson is going to be useful, just pray for the TD the week you need to start him

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9 minutes ago, Bryce84 said:

I also dropped him after week 2.  It just didn't look like the coaches were going to commit one way or another, or shift offensive philosophies to enable Carson (or Penny).  Fortunately for me, no one grabbed him before the games Sunday and once Shady was ruled OUT I put him in my IR slot and grabbed Carson before the games began just in case something like this happened.

 

I dont think it'll be too easy next week @Arizona, they are "fantasy friendly" against the run largely due to TDs given up (5).  Arizona has been pretty solid against the run when it comes to yards and yards per carry, particularly against the lead power back types.  See Jordan Howard last week: 24 carries, 61 yards, 2.5 yards per carry.  Or Gurley the week before: 19 carries, 42 yards, 2.2 yards per carry.  Then there's AP in week 1: 26 carries, 96 yards, 3.7 yards per carry.  It's the shifty passing backs that tend to burn them on the ground.  Luckily the Cardinals have been awful this year which allows the game script to go in favor of opposing running backs.  If Carson can manage a Jordan Howard type of day I'll be pretty happy.

And on top of that, Pete Carroll hates fantasy owners and loves to do what people aren't expecting, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if Penny got all the touches next week.  Its not like Carson was very good.  3.2 YPC, this was all based on volume, im pretty sure Penny could have had this game with all those touches.  Carroll can see how Penny handles a full workload after seeing how Carson handled a full workload the week before, all while screwing every fantasy owner who puts Carson back into their lineup.  Win/Win for him.

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I guess I just thought Carson was a very talented, bruising back and there was no way I was dropping him. I mean he played the broncos and the bears, neither team is a slouch on D.  I just can't see any situations were a back with more upside would be available, but I don't play in leagues less than 12 teams.  I guess I can see dropping him in a shallow 10 team league, there were probably decent options available.  Good luck in your attempts to get him back, hopefully you nab him. 

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50 minutes ago, hobbs28 said:

And on top of that, Pete Carroll hates fantasy owners and loves to do what people aren't expecting, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if Penny got all the touches next week.  Its not like Carson was very good.  3.2 YPC, this was all based on volume, im pretty sure Penny could have had this game with all those touches.  Carroll can see how Penny handles a full workload after seeing how Carson handled a full workload the week before, all while screwing every fantasy owner who puts Carson back into their lineup.  Win/Win for him.

He looks better than that ypc. His most impressive run imo last week was on 3rd and 11 when they were trying to ice the game. They had Carson dead to rights in the back field and he broke free for the 12 yard gain. He showed a lot of ability and heart on that run. 

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1 hour ago, hobbs28 said:

And on top of that, Pete Carroll hates fantasy owners and loves to do what people aren't expecting, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if Penny got all the touches next week.  Its not like Carson was very good.  3.2 YPC, this was all based on volume, im pretty sure Penny could have had this game with all those touches.  Carroll can see how Penny handles a full workload after seeing how Carson handled a full workload the week before, all while screwing every fantasy owner who puts Carson back into their lineup.  Win/Win for him.

 

You will claim you did but based on your comments you did not watch the game. Its a wonder that he even hit 100 yards, even with 30+ carries, when dallas was breaking through the line every play. Cant just box score watch my man. 

Edited by Rizzle630

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4 minutes ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

You will claim you did but based on your comments you did not watch the game. Its a wonder that he even hit 100 yards, even with 30+ carries, when dallas was breaking through the line every play. Cant just box score watch my man. 

That has been the situation for a couple seasons with Seattle. Their OL is atrocious. It was better on Sunday though with Fluker in the lineup. They didn't have Fluker the first two weeks.

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

That has been the situation for a couple seasons with Seattle. Their OL is atrocious. It was better on Sunday though with Fluker in the lineup. They didn't have Fluker the first two weeks.

 

Agreed. I think it is telling that carson finds ways to get yards with that said. 

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Based on the eye test and, well, actual numbers, Carson's been way more productive with touches. Hopefully they ride him hard now. Even Pete Carroll must want to win at least a few games this year.

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I love the “3.2 ypc” comment. Carson was awesome Sunday, constantly turning 1 y runs into 4. The line is still atrocious but I think it’ll continue to get better with Fluker being back.

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Hes on my WW, someone dropped him 2 weeks ago, had noone to drop at the time, in what looked like a RBBC behind a sketchy O-Line, but 34 touches? Hope I can get him

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3 hours ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

You will claim you did but based on your comments you did not watch the game. Its a wonder that he even hit 100 yards, even with 30+ carries, when dallas was breaking through the line every play. Cant just box score watch my man. 

No, I didn't watch the game, I wont claim to.  I believe you guys that he was way better than his YPC would indicate.  That doesn't make Pete Carroll a sane person.  I swore I would never own a Carroll RB again after he lied about making Rawls his workhorse every single week.  It seemed to be the same old word games from him up until this week.  So now that im putting Carson back in my lineup im fully expecting to get duped.  

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If they go back to a timeshare with Penny, I think the media will crucify Carroll.  He may lose the locker room too. 

 

The only possible scenario where this happens is if they give Penny a carry or two as a breather for Carson and he breaks off a long one.  Then they go with the hot hand.  That is the only justification for Penny getting significant carries that is defensible.

 

We all know that the likelihood of Penny breaking a long one is slim to none, based on what we have seen.  He's more likely to fumble than break a long one.  So I'm gonna say Carson's job is safe unless he really falters for a couple games.

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48 minutes ago, kp96 said:

If they go back to a timeshare with Penny, I think the media will crucify Carroll.  He may lose the locker room too. 

 

The only possible scenario where this happens is if they give Penny a carry or two as a breather for Carson and he breaks off a long one.  Then they go with the hot hand.  That is the only justification for Penny getting significant carries that is defensible.

 

We all know that the likelihood of Penny breaking a long one is slim to none, based on what we have seen.  He's more likely to fumble than break a long one.  So I'm gonna say Carson's job is safe unless he really falters for a couple games.

 

 

The strong support from his teammates is so big in this scenario.

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41 minutes ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

 

The strong support from his teammates is so big in this scenario.

 

 

i think it has zero value. All teammates care about is winning and they will support the guy who they are winning games with, if penny had a great game they would support him. Tyrod had everyones support until Baker replaced him  with a winning game and now everyone supports Baker. No one is missing Alex Smith in KC.  Bell had teammate support until his no show in week 1, then some attacked him publicly.  Josh gordon had his teammates support until he was traded. Fitzpatrick has his teams support until Winston replaces him. I think fans over value  and invest too much into the 'love of the team'  narrative  that makes nice stories and movie scripts but doesnt always fit the harsh reality of the business and hyper competitive nature of professional football. 

That's professional sports for you. 

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